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Future Scenario Planning Innovate Columbus Nita Rollins

Nita Rollins, Ph.D.
Nita Rollins, Ph.D.

The document outlines Dr. Nita Rollins' presentation on future scenario planning. It discusses using scenario planning to envision four future scenarios for Ohio's economic growth as an innovation hub by 2016. Scenario planning techniques involve identifying two highly uncertain and impactful drivers to plot on axes to create four plausible future scenarios. The goal is to generate an "aha effect" by exploring unexpected possibilities and threats through narrative stories about each scenario.

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Future Scenario Planning Dr. Nita Rollins Futurist, Resource Interactive Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Brussels Futuring & Thought Leadership Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
CHALLENGE: TO ENVISION FOUR FUTURE (2016) SCENARIOS OF OHIOS ECONOMIC GROWTH AS AN INNOVATION HUB Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
WHAT WAS THE MOST IMPACTFUL INNOVATION, ARGUABLY, OF THE LAST FORTY YEARS? Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Key Innovations Since 1970 INTERNET 1970-1978 CT SCAN 1971 MRI 1974 ENDORPHINS 1975 PERSONAL COMPUTER 1976 ONCOGENES 1976 RNA SPLICING 1977 Wednesday, May 4, 2011
ARCHAEA 1977 GLOBAL WARMING 1970-1980 ASTEROID EXTINCTION 1980 DNA FORENSICS 1984 UNIVERSE ACCELERATING 1988 WORLD WIDE WEB 1989-1992 GAMMA RAY BURSTS 1997 Wednesday, May 4, 2011
HOW ABOUT FINANCIAL ENGINEERING INNOVATIONS? Wednesday, May 4, 2011
COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS 1987 CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS 1995 Wednesday, May 4, 2011
HOUSING MARKET GROWTH CONTINUED $ FINANCIAL REGULATION-- DEREGULATION-- CONCENTRATED DISTRIBUTED RISK RISK HOUSING MARKET STAGNATION Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
SCENARIO PLANNING BRIEF TIMELINE 1950-60s Herman Kahn, Rand Text Unconsumption Corp analyst influenced by Hollywood storytelling 1971 Pierre Wack, Dutch Royal/ Shell Head of Planning, France, developed oil supply shock scenario 1980s civic & SXSW policy orgs, From: business, military, government Dr. Nita Rollins, Futurist Resource Interactives RI:Lab use technique for causality Wednesday, May 4, 2011
FUTURE SCENARIO PLANNING USING A MATRIX 1.Plot two axes representing forces/drivers that are both highly uncertain and highly impactful 2.Create four scenarios both provocative and plausible 3.Tell a story about each incorporating both the outcomes of these critical uncertainties and a few relevant predetermined elements, e.g., aging US/Japan/Western European populations Wednesday, May 4, 2011
ANALTYIC ABSTRACT THINKING IS IDEAL FOR REPORTING THE REGULAR, THE EXPECTED, THE NORMAL, THE ORDINARY... BY CONTRAST, NARRATIVE THINKING...IS IDEALLY SUITED TO DISCUSSING DISRUPTIONS FROM THE ORDINARY, THE UNEXPECTED, THE CONFLICTS, THE DEVIATIONS, THE SURPRISES, THE UNUSUAL. SCENARIOS SEARCH FOR AN AHA EFFECT THAT OCCURS WHEN MANAGERS SEE A NEW THREAT OR POSSIBILITY, OR A NEW STRATEGY--AN INSIGHT THAT CAN BE LOST AMID A THOUSAND SPREADSHEETS. ADAM GORDON, FUTURE SAVVY: IDENTIFYING TRENDS TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS, MANAGE UNCERTAINTY, AND PROFIT FROM CHANGE Wednesday, May 4, 2011
TWO AXES OF UNCERTAINTY SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICAL Wednesday, May 4, 2011
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE Jim Dators Alternative Future Archetypes Wednesday, May 4, 2011
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION COLLAPSE CONSTRAINT Wednesday, May 4, 2011
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION Archetypes for the Global Recession of 2008-09 CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE Wednesday, May 4, 2011
PICK ONE MORE AXIS OF UNCERTAINTY: GROWTH TRANSFORMATION BRAIN GAIN BRAIN DRAIN CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE Wednesday, May 4, 2011
AXES IDEAS: 1. THE COLLAPSE OF PRODUCER-CONTROLLED CONSUMER MARKETS (WATTS WACKER/JIM TAYLOR) 2. INFO-WARS BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW (ALVIN TOFFLER) 3. CHINAMERICA & THE CONNECTED GLOBAL MARKET (NITA ROLLINS) Wednesday, May 4, 2011
THE GOAL OF A GOOD FORECAST IS NOT THE CLASSIC QUESTION, IS IT CORRECT? BUT RATHER, IS IT USEFUL IN PRODUCING SUCCESS? Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Thanks and good luck! s Dr. Nita Rollins Futurist, Resource Interactive Wednesday, May 4, 2011

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Future Scenario Planning Innovate Columbus Nita Rollins

  • 1. Future Scenario Planning Dr. Nita Rollins Futurist, Resource Interactive Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 2. Brussels Futuring & Thought Leadership Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 4. CHALLENGE: TO ENVISION FOUR FUTURE (2016) SCENARIOS OF OHIOS ECONOMIC GROWTH AS AN INNOVATION HUB Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 6. WHAT WAS THE MOST IMPACTFUL INNOVATION, ARGUABLY, OF THE LAST FORTY YEARS? Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 7. Key Innovations Since 1970 INTERNET 1970-1978 CT SCAN 1971 MRI 1974 ENDORPHINS 1975 PERSONAL COMPUTER 1976 ONCOGENES 1976 RNA SPLICING 1977 Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 8. ARCHAEA 1977 GLOBAL WARMING 1970-1980 ASTEROID EXTINCTION 1980 DNA FORENSICS 1984 UNIVERSE ACCELERATING 1988 WORLD WIDE WEB 1989-1992 GAMMA RAY BURSTS 1997 Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 9. HOW ABOUT FINANCIAL ENGINEERING INNOVATIONS? Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 10. COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS 1987 CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS 1995 Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 11. HOUSING MARKET GROWTH CONTINUED $ FINANCIAL REGULATION-- DEREGULATION-- CONCENTRATED DISTRIBUTED RISK RISK HOUSING MARKET STAGNATION Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 13. SCENARIO PLANNING BRIEF TIMELINE 1950-60s Herman Kahn, Rand Text Unconsumption Corp analyst influenced by Hollywood storytelling 1971 Pierre Wack, Dutch Royal/ Shell Head of Planning, France, developed oil supply shock scenario 1980s civic & SXSW policy orgs, From: business, military, government Dr. Nita Rollins, Futurist Resource Interactives RI:Lab use technique for causality Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 14. FUTURE SCENARIO PLANNING USING A MATRIX 1.Plot two axes representing forces/drivers that are both highly uncertain and highly impactful 2.Create four scenarios both provocative and plausible 3.Tell a story about each incorporating both the outcomes of these critical uncertainties and a few relevant predetermined elements, e.g., aging US/Japan/Western European populations Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 15. ANALTYIC ABSTRACT THINKING IS IDEAL FOR REPORTING THE REGULAR, THE EXPECTED, THE NORMAL, THE ORDINARY... BY CONTRAST, NARRATIVE THINKING...IS IDEALLY SUITED TO DISCUSSING DISRUPTIONS FROM THE ORDINARY, THE UNEXPECTED, THE CONFLICTS, THE DEVIATIONS, THE SURPRISES, THE UNUSUAL. SCENARIOS SEARCH FOR AN AHA EFFECT THAT OCCURS WHEN MANAGERS SEE A NEW THREAT OR POSSIBILITY, OR A NEW STRATEGY--AN INSIGHT THAT CAN BE LOST AMID A THOUSAND SPREADSHEETS. ADAM GORDON, FUTURE SAVVY: IDENTIFYING TRENDS TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS, MANAGE UNCERTAINTY, AND PROFIT FROM CHANGE Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 16. TWO AXES OF UNCERTAINTY SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICAL Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 17. GROWTH TRANSFORMATION CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE Jim Dators Alternative Future Archetypes Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 18. GROWTH TRANSFORMATION COLLAPSE CONSTRAINT Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 19. GROWTH TRANSFORMATION Archetypes for the Global Recession of 2008-09 CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 20. PICK ONE MORE AXIS OF UNCERTAINTY: GROWTH TRANSFORMATION BRAIN GAIN BRAIN DRAIN CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 21. AXES IDEAS: 1. THE COLLAPSE OF PRODUCER-CONTROLLED CONSUMER MARKETS (WATTS WACKER/JIM TAYLOR) 2. INFO-WARS BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW (ALVIN TOFFLER) 3. CHINAMERICA & THE CONNECTED GLOBAL MARKET (NITA ROLLINS) Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 22. THE GOAL OF A GOOD FORECAST IS NOT THE CLASSIC QUESTION, IS IT CORRECT? BUT RATHER, IS IT USEFUL IN PRODUCING SUCCESS? Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  • 23. Thanks and good luck! s Dr. Nita Rollins Futurist, Resource Interactive Wednesday, May 4, 2011
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