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Oct 2013

Climate Change
not an environmental
problem,
a social justice problem
with environmental causes
Ilias Bartolini
@iliasbartolini
NASA - http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/

2
Our
Home

NASA - http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/

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Charles David Keeling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_David_Keeling

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Keeling curve

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
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Keeling curve

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
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Svante Arrhenius

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius
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Svante Arrhenius
Temperature
on earth
should be

-18C !?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius
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Greenhouse efect

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Greenhouse efect

Gas

T

Water vapor (H2O)

+ 30 C

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

+ 2/4 C

Methane (CH4)

+ 0.5 C

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Modeling climate system

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/images/ocp2003/ocpfy2003-fg3-3.htm

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Modeling climate system

http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/modeling_schematic.html

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https://class.coursera.org/climatechange-001

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The future?

https://class.coursera.org/climatechange-001
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The future?

http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf
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VULNERABILITY

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Less food produced. Some estimate an
aggregate fall of at least 10%

https://secure.fickr.com/photos/cgiarclimate/9687145368/
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2008 food crisis

http://www.economist.com/node/11050146

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Up to 20 million people in low-lying
Bangladesh are at risk from rising sea
levels in the coming decades

https://secure.fickr.com/photos/aftab/152945444/
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There's no compensation for the
disappearance of our country

- Tuvalu's UNFCC representative

https://secure.fickr.com/photos/oxfamaustralia/8117764040/
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15% - 37% of 1103 known endemic plant
and animal species will be
committed to extinction by 2050

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_toad
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Disappearance of our natural species is an
irreversible event

- Golden Toad last seen on May 15, 1989

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_toad
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"The impacts of climate
change are not evenly
distributed - the poorest
countries and people
will sufer earliest and
most"
- Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate Change

Pawel Kuczynski

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Per capita GHG emissions
(excluding land use change)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GHG_per_capita_2000_no_LUC.svg
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Per capita CO2 emissions
(including land use change)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2_responsibility_1950-2000.svg
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Is energy the main the cause?

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
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US CHG emissions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2_responsibility_1950-2000.svg
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Our habits

https://secure.fickr.com/photos/24460199@N07/2316497297/

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Our habits

https://secure.fickr.com/photos/24460199@N07/2316497297/

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Our habits

https://secure.fickr.com/photos/24460199@N07/2316497297/

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We are not
equally
responsible
We are not
equally
afected

http://www.davidrevoy.com/article58/making-of-yin-yang-of-world-hunger
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Is a social
problem!

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Fossil fuels

Do the math  350.org

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Fossil fuels

Do the math  350.org

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Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math  350.org

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$0
for dumping greenhouse gasses in
the atmosphere

Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math  350.org

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$0
for dumping greenhouse gasses in
the atmosphere
...for the last 100-ish years
Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math  350.org

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$440,000
for lobbing US congress

Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math  350.org

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$440,000
for lobbing US congress
...every day!

Pawel Kuczynski & Do the math  350.org

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World population

Worldmapper.org
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World greenhouse gas emissions

Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101

hey! it is more
expensive for us
you should commit and
not cheat on your emissions!

Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101

but you polluted
for hundreds of years!
now is our turn, we need
to develop our country

Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101

and we are an
exporting economy...
you are the consumer that
is benefiting from
our emissions!

Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101

you should not be
too strict on us
...amazon is the
green lung of earth
Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101

hey, keep calm!
...there's an interesting green
economy business here

Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101
Don't be too harsh...
btw I still have some
cheap oil to sell

Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101
Don't be too harsh...
btw I still have some
cheap oil to sell
Me too!

Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101
Don't be too harsh...
btw I still have some
cheap oil to sell

And we
got gas!

Me too!

Worldmapper.org
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Climate politics 101

While you keep discussing
...our country is going to
disappear under sea
Worldmapper.org
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NASA - http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/

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Tragedy of the commons
"is the depletion of a shared
resource by individuals, acting
independently and
rationally according to each
one's self-interest"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

NASA - http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/

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So how do they take decisions?

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So how do they take decisions?

Consensus!
https://secure.fickr.com/photos/johnia/2355118699/

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Inaction advocates and skeptics


Make the problem uncertain



Make it just an environmental problem



Make the solution look expensive



Tell that "we need an international treaty"
as precondition

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https://secure.fickr.com/photos/samuelyoo/8784214176/

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https://secure.fickr.com/photos/samuelyoo/8784214176/

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https://secure.fickr.com/photos/samuelyoo/8784214176/

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Shall we... just wait?

Adrian Schiegl  Fragile Situations
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Where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientifc
certainty shall not be used as a reason for
postponing cost-efective measures to prevent
environmental degradation.
- Precautionary principle

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Adrian Schiegl  Fragile Situations
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Climate change is the greatest threat facing
humanity. It threatens to undo 50 years of our
development work and it will impact the poor in the
greatest sense.
- Ban Ki Moon
Secretary-General of the United Nations

Adrian Schiegl  We will pay back later
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"The inescapable challenges of the early 21st century:
sustainability and resilience, and the interconnected
challenges of energy, water, food and climate"
- Sir John Beddigton
UK's chief scientifc adviser

Adrian Schiegl  We will pay back later
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Thank you!
https://my.thoughtworks.com/groups/climate-change
https://my.thoughtworks.com/groups/environmentaljustice

CC BY-SA
https://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by-sa/3.0/

...and feedback please! :)

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