際際滷shows by User: TarekFadlallah / http://www.slideshare.net/images/logo.gif 際際滷shows by User: TarekFadlallah / Mon, 02 Sep 2024 11:55:55 GMT 際際滷Share feed for 際際滷shows by User: TarekFadlallah The Arabian Markets - Delivering Change in GCC /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-delivering-change-in-gcc/271496946 deliveringchange-240902115555-6b915055
A prolonged period of higher interest rates has started to weigh on global economic activity and asset prices though not US equities, yet! Southern Europe's economic importance is diminishing and it is potentially one major downturn away from a solvency crisis. While the GCC is in the midst of a Golden Age there are going to be bumps along the way and cyclicality determined by economic factors, and by trial and error that is a part of every experimental journey. Good corporate governance adds value, particularly in the MENA markets where standards vary considerably. Investors should use their influence to demand governance above and beyond statutory requirements. The planning stage for economic diversification is largely in the rear view mirror. It is now about executing the strategy and delivering change.]]>

A prolonged period of higher interest rates has started to weigh on global economic activity and asset prices though not US equities, yet! Southern Europe's economic importance is diminishing and it is potentially one major downturn away from a solvency crisis. While the GCC is in the midst of a Golden Age there are going to be bumps along the way and cyclicality determined by economic factors, and by trial and error that is a part of every experimental journey. Good corporate governance adds value, particularly in the MENA markets where standards vary considerably. Investors should use their influence to demand governance above and beyond statutory requirements. The planning stage for economic diversification is largely in the rear view mirror. It is now about executing the strategy and delivering change.]]>
Mon, 02 Sep 2024 11:55:55 GMT /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-delivering-change-in-gcc/271496946 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Arabian Markets - Delivering Change in GCC TarekFadlallah A prolonged period of higher interest rates has started to weigh on global economic activity and asset prices though not US equities, yet! Southern Europe's economic importance is diminishing and it is potentially one major downturn away from a solvency crisis. While the GCC is in the midst of a Golden Age there are going to be bumps along the way and cyclicality determined by economic factors, and by trial and error that is a part of every experimental journey. Good corporate governance adds value, particularly in the MENA markets where standards vary considerably. Investors should use their influence to demand governance above and beyond statutory requirements. The planning stage for economic diversification is largely in the rear view mirror. It is now about executing the strategy and delivering change. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/deliveringchange-240902115555-6b915055-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> A prolonged period of higher interest rates has started to weigh on global economic activity and asset prices though not US equities, yet! Southern Europe&#39;s economic importance is diminishing and it is potentially one major downturn away from a solvency crisis. While the GCC is in the midst of a Golden Age there are going to be bumps along the way and cyclicality determined by economic factors, and by trial and error that is a part of every experimental journey. Good corporate governance adds value, particularly in the MENA markets where standards vary considerably. Investors should use their influence to demand governance above and beyond statutory requirements. The planning stage for economic diversification is largely in the rear view mirror. It is now about executing the strategy and delivering change.
The Arabian Markets - Delivering Change in GCC from Tarek Fadlallah
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The GCC's Golden Era /slideshow/the-gccs-golden-era/257282745 thegoldenera-230410074225-34b0e716
Over the past year global assets have shed trillions in value and recoveries have been narrowly focused and tepid. Fortunately, investors are being rewarded handsomely not to gamble unnecessarily with attractive risk free rates the most important single factor to determine asset prices also providing optionality. Lots of stocks appear on sale but credit spreads remain tight and earnings have yet to decline significantly, leaving scope for further deterioration in valuations if economies slip into recession. US inflation has peaked but getting to 2% on a sustainable basis will be neither quick nor straightforward. Bond investors may enjoy a euphoric summer but could be underestimating reversals in structural factors. GCC stock markets have given back some of the relative gains achieved during the pandemic but continue to comfortably outperform their peers across the emerging markets. Most EM funds have been underweight Saudi Arabia and the GCC. It is now widely accepted that Saudi Arabia is implementing the necessary economic reforms. The debate is less about the direction and more over the speed and the timeframe. The PIF is nurturing programs for which the Saudi private sector has insufficient skills and low risk appetite but has limits on how much J-curve deficits it can sustain until these greenfield ventures turn a profit. The good news is that the private sector is beginning to jump on board the Vision train by participating in selective projects without insisting on SIDF sponsored loans, PIF capital and guaranteed off-takes. One problem is that many companies remain focused on managing existing operations, often hanging on to archaic business models instead of adapting, investing in new technologies or in research and development. Perspective is important and claims that the regional economy is well on its way to being independent of oil revenues is bold but disingenuous. Oil accounts for the overwhelming bulk of exports, state revenues and lubricates the non-oil economy. Lost in the recent focus on Saudi Arabia is the continued and remarkable evolution of other economies such as Qatar and the UAE. Notwithstanding the multitude of remaining challenges, its important to recognize that this is a Golden Era for the gulf region. The GCC economies have never been bigger, stronger, more diversified or more integrated into the global economy. These are the good old days.]]>

Over the past year global assets have shed trillions in value and recoveries have been narrowly focused and tepid. Fortunately, investors are being rewarded handsomely not to gamble unnecessarily with attractive risk free rates the most important single factor to determine asset prices also providing optionality. Lots of stocks appear on sale but credit spreads remain tight and earnings have yet to decline significantly, leaving scope for further deterioration in valuations if economies slip into recession. US inflation has peaked but getting to 2% on a sustainable basis will be neither quick nor straightforward. Bond investors may enjoy a euphoric summer but could be underestimating reversals in structural factors. GCC stock markets have given back some of the relative gains achieved during the pandemic but continue to comfortably outperform their peers across the emerging markets. Most EM funds have been underweight Saudi Arabia and the GCC. It is now widely accepted that Saudi Arabia is implementing the necessary economic reforms. The debate is less about the direction and more over the speed and the timeframe. The PIF is nurturing programs for which the Saudi private sector has insufficient skills and low risk appetite but has limits on how much J-curve deficits it can sustain until these greenfield ventures turn a profit. The good news is that the private sector is beginning to jump on board the Vision train by participating in selective projects without insisting on SIDF sponsored loans, PIF capital and guaranteed off-takes. One problem is that many companies remain focused on managing existing operations, often hanging on to archaic business models instead of adapting, investing in new technologies or in research and development. Perspective is important and claims that the regional economy is well on its way to being independent of oil revenues is bold but disingenuous. Oil accounts for the overwhelming bulk of exports, state revenues and lubricates the non-oil economy. Lost in the recent focus on Saudi Arabia is the continued and remarkable evolution of other economies such as Qatar and the UAE. Notwithstanding the multitude of remaining challenges, its important to recognize that this is a Golden Era for the gulf region. The GCC economies have never been bigger, stronger, more diversified or more integrated into the global economy. These are the good old days.]]>
Mon, 10 Apr 2023 07:42:25 GMT /slideshow/the-gccs-golden-era/257282745 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The GCC's Golden Era TarekFadlallah Over the past year global assets have shed trillions in value and recoveries have been narrowly focused and tepid. Fortunately, investors are being rewarded handsomely not to gamble unnecessarily with attractive risk free rates the most important single factor to determine asset prices also providing optionality. Lots of stocks appear on sale but credit spreads remain tight and earnings have yet to decline significantly, leaving scope for further deterioration in valuations if economies slip into recession. US inflation has peaked but getting to 2% on a sustainable basis will be neither quick nor straightforward. Bond investors may enjoy a euphoric summer but could be underestimating reversals in structural factors. GCC stock markets have given back some of the relative gains achieved during the pandemic but continue to comfortably outperform their peers across the emerging markets. Most EM funds have been underweight Saudi Arabia and the GCC. It is now widely accepted that Saudi Arabia is implementing the necessary economic reforms. The debate is less about the direction and more over the speed and the timeframe. The PIF is nurturing programs for which the Saudi private sector has insufficient skills and low risk appetite but has limits on how much J-curve deficits it can sustain until these greenfield ventures turn a profit. The good news is that the private sector is beginning to jump on board the Vision train by participating in selective projects without insisting on SIDF sponsored loans, PIF capital and guaranteed off-takes. One problem is that many companies remain focused on managing existing operations, often hanging on to archaic business models instead of adapting, investing in new technologies or in research and development. Perspective is important and claims that the regional economy is well on its way to being independent of oil revenues is bold but disingenuous. Oil accounts for the overwhelming bulk of exports, state revenues and lubricates the non-oil economy. Lost in the recent focus on Saudi Arabia is the continued and remarkable evolution of other economies such as Qatar and the UAE. Notwithstanding the multitude of remaining challenges, its important to recognize that this is a Golden Era for the gulf region. The GCC economies have never been bigger, stronger, more diversified or more integrated into the global economy. These are the good old days. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/thegoldenera-230410074225-34b0e716-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> Over the past year global assets have shed trillions in value and recoveries have been narrowly focused and tepid. Fortunately, investors are being rewarded handsomely not to gamble unnecessarily with attractive risk free rates the most important single factor to determine asset prices also providing optionality. Lots of stocks appear on sale but credit spreads remain tight and earnings have yet to decline significantly, leaving scope for further deterioration in valuations if economies slip into recession. US inflation has peaked but getting to 2% on a sustainable basis will be neither quick nor straightforward. Bond investors may enjoy a euphoric summer but could be underestimating reversals in structural factors. GCC stock markets have given back some of the relative gains achieved during the pandemic but continue to comfortably outperform their peers across the emerging markets. Most EM funds have been underweight Saudi Arabia and the GCC. It is now widely accepted that Saudi Arabia is implementing the necessary economic reforms. The debate is less about the direction and more over the speed and the timeframe. The PIF is nurturing programs for which the Saudi private sector has insufficient skills and low risk appetite but has limits on how much J-curve deficits it can sustain until these greenfield ventures turn a profit. The good news is that the private sector is beginning to jump on board the Vision train by participating in selective projects without insisting on SIDF sponsored loans, PIF capital and guaranteed off-takes. One problem is that many companies remain focused on managing existing operations, often hanging on to archaic business models instead of adapting, investing in new technologies or in research and development. Perspective is important and claims that the regional economy is well on its way to being independent of oil revenues is bold but disingenuous. Oil accounts for the overwhelming bulk of exports, state revenues and lubricates the non-oil economy. Lost in the recent focus on Saudi Arabia is the continued and remarkable evolution of other economies such as Qatar and the UAE. Notwithstanding the multitude of remaining challenges, its important to recognize that this is a Golden Era for the gulf region. The GCC economies have never been bigger, stronger, more diversified or more integrated into the global economy. These are the good old days.
The GCC's Golden Era from Tarek Fadlallah
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Game Stopped /slideshow/game-stopped/251624005 gamestopped-220420083558
* A soft landing is the least likely outcome for the US economy. Inflation, stagflation and recession have higher probabilities. * Yield compression (amplified by years of financial repression) has left valuations extremely vulnerable to sharp increases in risk-free rates. * Disorder in markets may produce dislocation and price distortions that could lead to generational investment opportunities. * GCC stock markets reflect twentieth-century economies based on traditional industries and outdated business models . * There is little evidence that the regional economy is weaning itself quickly enough away from oil. * Each GCC country is on its own distinctive journey towards reform and diversification, and success will vary. * There is a war on fossil fuels and the stakes could not be higher.]]>

* A soft landing is the least likely outcome for the US economy. Inflation, stagflation and recession have higher probabilities. * Yield compression (amplified by years of financial repression) has left valuations extremely vulnerable to sharp increases in risk-free rates. * Disorder in markets may produce dislocation and price distortions that could lead to generational investment opportunities. * GCC stock markets reflect twentieth-century economies based on traditional industries and outdated business models . * There is little evidence that the regional economy is weaning itself quickly enough away from oil. * Each GCC country is on its own distinctive journey towards reform and diversification, and success will vary. * There is a war on fossil fuels and the stakes could not be higher.]]>
Wed, 20 Apr 2022 08:35:58 GMT /slideshow/game-stopped/251624005 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) Game Stopped TarekFadlallah * A soft landing is the least likely outcome for the US economy. Inflation, stagflation and recession have higher probabilities. * Yield compression (amplified by years of financial repression) has left valuations extremely vulnerable to sharp increases in risk-free rates. * Disorder in markets may produce dislocation and price distortions that could lead to generational investment opportunities. * GCC stock markets reflect twentieth-century economies based on traditional industries and outdated business models . * There is little evidence that the regional economy is weaning itself quickly enough away from oil. * Each GCC country is on its own distinctive journey towards reform and diversification, and success will vary. * There is a war on fossil fuels and the stakes could not be higher. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/gamestopped-220420083558-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> * A soft landing is the least likely outcome for the US economy. Inflation, stagflation and recession have higher probabilities. * Yield compression (amplified by years of financial repression) has left valuations extremely vulnerable to sharp increases in risk-free rates. * Disorder in markets may produce dislocation and price distortions that could lead to generational investment opportunities. * GCC stock markets reflect twentieth-century economies based on traditional industries and outdated business models . * There is little evidence that the regional economy is weaning itself quickly enough away from oil. * Each GCC country is on its own distinctive journey towards reform and diversification, and success will vary. * There is a war on fossil fuels and the stakes could not be higher.
Game Stopped from Tarek Fadlallah
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The Arabian Markets - Rebuilding the Economy /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-rebuilding-the-economy/246424096 rebuildingtheeconomy-210419062148
The GCC is in a fateful economic battle that has troubling cyclical, structural, and systemic components driven by risks around oil and a disruptive post-pandemic digital world for which it is ill-prepared. Businesses are unravelling as entitlements are withdrawn and regulations rolled back. This paper proposes to reframe relationship between the public and private sectors, rewarding companies that transition from dependency and hopeless business models, while helping govts achieve fiscal sustainability. ]]>

The GCC is in a fateful economic battle that has troubling cyclical, structural, and systemic components driven by risks around oil and a disruptive post-pandemic digital world for which it is ill-prepared. Businesses are unravelling as entitlements are withdrawn and regulations rolled back. This paper proposes to reframe relationship between the public and private sectors, rewarding companies that transition from dependency and hopeless business models, while helping govts achieve fiscal sustainability. ]]>
Mon, 19 Apr 2021 06:21:48 GMT /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-rebuilding-the-economy/246424096 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Arabian Markets - Rebuilding the Economy TarekFadlallah The GCC is in a fateful economic battle that has troubling cyclical, structural, and systemic components driven by risks around oil and a disruptive post-pandemic digital world for which it is ill-prepared. Businesses are unravelling as entitlements are withdrawn and regulations rolled back. This paper proposes to reframe relationship between the public and private sectors, rewarding companies that transition from dependency and hopeless business models, while helping govts achieve fiscal sustainability. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/rebuildingtheeconomy-210419062148-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> The GCC is in a fateful economic battle that has troubling cyclical, structural, and systemic components driven by risks around oil and a disruptive post-pandemic digital world for which it is ill-prepared. Businesses are unravelling as entitlements are withdrawn and regulations rolled back. This paper proposes to reframe relationship between the public and private sectors, rewarding companies that transition from dependency and hopeless business models, while helping govts achieve fiscal sustainability.
The Arabian Markets - Rebuilding the Economy from Tarek Fadlallah
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Giant leap /slideshow/giant-leap/241173975 giantleap-210111062007
From an economic policy perspective, the time for caution in the Middle East is over. The region needs a moon shot moment. A Giant Leap. ]]>

From an economic policy perspective, the time for caution in the Middle East is over. The region needs a moon shot moment. A Giant Leap. ]]>
Mon, 11 Jan 2021 06:20:07 GMT /slideshow/giant-leap/241173975 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) Giant leap TarekFadlallah From an economic policy perspective, the time for caution in the Middle East is over. The region needs a moon shot moment. A Giant Leap. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/giantleap-210111062007-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> From an economic policy perspective, the time for caution in the Middle East is over. The region needs a moon shot moment. A Giant Leap.
Giant leap from Tarek Fadlallah
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The Litmus test /slideshow/the-litmus-test/238930118 litmustest-201021085411
The litmus test for diversification must be based on the ability of countries to meet their bills even if oil prices remain low. No #GCC country passes that test without dipping into savings or borrowings. The GCC economies need stimulus through focused spending on transformative programs that can boost qualitative growth. Alas, regional SWFs continue to be fairly shy about engaging proactively in the domestic economy despite the clear opportunities.]]>

The litmus test for diversification must be based on the ability of countries to meet their bills even if oil prices remain low. No #GCC country passes that test without dipping into savings or borrowings. The GCC economies need stimulus through focused spending on transformative programs that can boost qualitative growth. Alas, regional SWFs continue to be fairly shy about engaging proactively in the domestic economy despite the clear opportunities.]]>
Wed, 21 Oct 2020 08:54:11 GMT /slideshow/the-litmus-test/238930118 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Litmus test TarekFadlallah The litmus test for diversification must be based on the ability of countries to meet their bills even if oil prices remain low. No #GCC country passes that test without dipping into savings or borrowings. The GCC economies need stimulus through focused spending on transformative programs that can boost qualitative growth. Alas, regional SWFs continue to be fairly shy about engaging proactively in the domestic economy despite the clear opportunities. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/litmustest-201021085411-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> The litmus test for diversification must be based on the ability of countries to meet their bills even if oil prices remain low. No #GCC country passes that test without dipping into savings or borrowings. The GCC economies need stimulus through focused spending on transformative programs that can boost qualitative growth. Alas, regional SWFs continue to be fairly shy about engaging proactively in the domestic economy despite the clear opportunities.
The Litmus test from Tarek Fadlallah
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Souk of Fortune (January 2006) /slideshow/souk-of-fortune-january-2006/237513122 soukoffortune-200803154214
The Land of Golden Shares - closing in on the peak in Saudi equities in early 2006]]>

The Land of Golden Shares - closing in on the peak in Saudi equities in early 2006]]>
Mon, 03 Aug 2020 15:42:14 GMT /slideshow/souk-of-fortune-january-2006/237513122 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) Souk of Fortune (January 2006) TarekFadlallah The Land of Golden Shares - closing in on the peak in Saudi equities in early 2006 <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/soukoffortune-200803154214-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> The Land of Golden Shares - closing in on the peak in Saudi equities in early 2006
Souk of Fortune (January 2006) from Tarek Fadlallah
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Petrodollar Pyramids (October 2005) /slideshow/petrodollar-pyramids-october-2005/237513068 gcc4-200803154022
Liquidity driven markets trump value in Autumn 2005]]>

Liquidity driven markets trump value in Autumn 2005]]>
Mon, 03 Aug 2020 15:40:22 GMT /slideshow/petrodollar-pyramids-october-2005/237513068 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) Petrodollar Pyramids (October 2005) TarekFadlallah Liquidity driven markets trump value in Autumn 2005 <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/gcc4-200803154022-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> Liquidity driven markets trump value in Autumn 2005
Petrodollar Pyramids (October 2005) from Tarek Fadlallah
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The GCC Bear Trap (August 2005) /TarekFadlallah/the-gcc-bear-trap-august-2005 gcc3-200803153832
Prospects for Diminishing Returns in Summer of 2005]]>

Prospects for Diminishing Returns in Summer of 2005]]>
Mon, 03 Aug 2020 15:38:32 GMT /TarekFadlallah/the-gcc-bear-trap-august-2005 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The GCC Bear Trap (August 2005) TarekFadlallah Prospects for Diminishing Returns in Summer of 2005 <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/gcc3-200803153832-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> Prospects for Diminishing Returns in Summer of 2005
The GCC Bear Trap (August 2005) from Tarek Fadlallah
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The Credibility Gap (June 2005) /slideshow/the-credibility-gap-june-2005/237512951 gcc2-200803153656
Follow up to The Great Arabian Bubble]]>

Follow up to The Great Arabian Bubble]]>
Mon, 03 Aug 2020 15:36:56 GMT /slideshow/the-credibility-gap-june-2005/237512951 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Credibility Gap (June 2005) TarekFadlallah Follow up to The Great Arabian Bubble <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/gcc2-200803153656-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> Follow up to The Great Arabian Bubble
The Credibility Gap (June 2005) from Tarek Fadlallah
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The Arabian Markets - Afterworld /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-afterworld/235993091 afterworld-200621200133
As global economies start to reopen after covid-19 the GCC Arabian Markets face many challenges.]]>

As global economies start to reopen after covid-19 the GCC Arabian Markets face many challenges.]]>
Sun, 21 Jun 2020 20:01:33 GMT /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-afterworld/235993091 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Arabian Markets - Afterworld TarekFadlallah As global economies start to reopen after covid-19 the GCC Arabian Markets face many challenges. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/afterworld-200621200133-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> As global economies start to reopen after covid-19 the GCC Arabian Markets face many challenges.
The Arabian Markets - Afterworld from Tarek Fadlallah
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The Great Arabian Bubble (2005) /slideshow/the-great-arabian-bubble-2005/235971830 greatarabianbubble-200620182931
Published in June 2005]]>

Published in June 2005]]>
Sat, 20 Jun 2020 18:29:31 GMT /slideshow/the-great-arabian-bubble-2005/235971830 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Great Arabian Bubble (2005) TarekFadlallah Published in June 2005 <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/greatarabianbubble-200620182931-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> Published in June 2005
The Great Arabian Bubble (2005) from Tarek Fadlallah
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Paradox of Plenty /slideshow/paradox-of-plenty/168253060 paradoxofplenty-190902040042
揃 US equity markets have performed very well but the MSCI World (excluding US) has been relatively subdued and remains 20% below its 2008 peak. 揃 The global outlook for the twenty-twenties is distinctly ominous with China, Europe, the UK and the US facing systemic challenges. 揃 High equity yields, creative fiscal measures and unorthodox monetary tools might help markets temporarily but can only delay the day of reckoning. 揃 The TASI was as much as 19% higher at the end of April ahead of a massive inflow of foreign money but the index trade is now over. 揃 There are at least seven signs that could limit the scale of the economic rebound and make it difficult for the stock market to move higher. 揃 Marmore forecasts aggregate GCC profits to decline by 1.8% this year with earnings in Saudi Arabia dropping by 6.1%. 揃 A lower risk profile can mitigate the lurking dangers as is optimizing portfolios to benefit from falling interest rates and avoiding cyclicals. ]]>

揃 US equity markets have performed very well but the MSCI World (excluding US) has been relatively subdued and remains 20% below its 2008 peak. 揃 The global outlook for the twenty-twenties is distinctly ominous with China, Europe, the UK and the US facing systemic challenges. 揃 High equity yields, creative fiscal measures and unorthodox monetary tools might help markets temporarily but can only delay the day of reckoning. 揃 The TASI was as much as 19% higher at the end of April ahead of a massive inflow of foreign money but the index trade is now over. 揃 There are at least seven signs that could limit the scale of the economic rebound and make it difficult for the stock market to move higher. 揃 Marmore forecasts aggregate GCC profits to decline by 1.8% this year with earnings in Saudi Arabia dropping by 6.1%. 揃 A lower risk profile can mitigate the lurking dangers as is optimizing portfolios to benefit from falling interest rates and avoiding cyclicals. ]]>
Mon, 02 Sep 2019 04:00:42 GMT /slideshow/paradox-of-plenty/168253060 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) Paradox of Plenty TarekFadlallah 揃 US equity markets have performed very well but the MSCI World (excluding US) has been relatively subdued and remains 20% below its 2008 peak. 揃 The global outlook for the twenty-twenties is distinctly ominous with China, Europe, the UK and the US facing systemic challenges. 揃 High equity yields, creative fiscal measures and unorthodox monetary tools might help markets temporarily but can only delay the day of reckoning. 揃 The TASI was as much as 19% higher at the end of April ahead of a massive inflow of foreign money but the index trade is now over. 揃 There are at least seven signs that could limit the scale of the economic rebound and make it difficult for the stock market to move higher. 揃 Marmore forecasts aggregate GCC profits to decline by 1.8% this year with earnings in Saudi Arabia dropping by 6.1%. 揃 A lower risk profile can mitigate the lurking dangers as is optimizing portfolios to benefit from falling interest rates and avoiding cyclicals. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/paradoxofplenty-190902040042-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> 揃 US equity markets have performed very well but the MSCI World (excluding US) has been relatively subdued and remains 20% below its 2008 peak. 揃 The global outlook for the twenty-twenties is distinctly ominous with China, Europe, the UK and the US facing systemic challenges. 揃 High equity yields, creative fiscal measures and unorthodox monetary tools might help markets temporarily but can only delay the day of reckoning. 揃 The TASI was as much as 19% higher at the end of April ahead of a massive inflow of foreign money but the index trade is now over. 揃 There are at least seven signs that could limit the scale of the economic rebound and make it difficult for the stock market to move higher. 揃 Marmore forecasts aggregate GCC profits to decline by 1.8% this year with earnings in Saudi Arabia dropping by 6.1%. 揃 A lower risk profile can mitigate the lurking dangers as is optimizing portfolios to benefit from falling interest rates and avoiding cyclicals.
Paradox of Plenty from Tarek Fadlallah
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The Arabian Markets: Unknown Unknowns /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-unknown-unknowns/127416806 unknownunknowns-190107073651
The recent deterioration in global asset prices illustrates the moral hazard of keeping interest rates too low for too long and normalising prices at inflated levels. GCC profits rose by an estimated 12.7% last year and are expected to increase by 5.2% this year but 75 banks (11% of all listed companies) will account for 55% of total profits. All things being equal, the central case is that the Saudi market should rally modestly in the first few months of the year but could succumb to selling before Ramadan. There is strong support for regional reforms but anxiety over the lack of breakthrough developments that might move the economic needle in the short term. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range, and to spike periodically, but the changing product mix in the auto sector will bring the long-term equilibrium price down. The key risk is that we may be headed into a global slowdown with a deteriorating ability to respond due to ruinous levels of systemic debt that limit fiscal and monetary tools. It paid to be cautious in 2018 and the next twelve months should be no different with a likely rebound in the early part of the year giving way to renewed volatility. ]]>

The recent deterioration in global asset prices illustrates the moral hazard of keeping interest rates too low for too long and normalising prices at inflated levels. GCC profits rose by an estimated 12.7% last year and are expected to increase by 5.2% this year but 75 banks (11% of all listed companies) will account for 55% of total profits. All things being equal, the central case is that the Saudi market should rally modestly in the first few months of the year but could succumb to selling before Ramadan. There is strong support for regional reforms but anxiety over the lack of breakthrough developments that might move the economic needle in the short term. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range, and to spike periodically, but the changing product mix in the auto sector will bring the long-term equilibrium price down. The key risk is that we may be headed into a global slowdown with a deteriorating ability to respond due to ruinous levels of systemic debt that limit fiscal and monetary tools. It paid to be cautious in 2018 and the next twelve months should be no different with a likely rebound in the early part of the year giving way to renewed volatility. ]]>
Mon, 07 Jan 2019 07:36:50 GMT /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-unknown-unknowns/127416806 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Arabian Markets: Unknown Unknowns TarekFadlallah The recent deterioration in global asset prices illustrates the moral hazard of keeping interest rates too low for too long and normalising prices at inflated levels. GCC profits rose by an estimated 12.7% last year and are expected to increase by 5.2% this year but 75 banks (11% of all listed companies) will account for 55% of total profits. All things being equal, the central case is that the Saudi market should rally modestly in the first few months of the year but could succumb to selling before Ramadan. There is strong support for regional reforms but anxiety over the lack of breakthrough developments that might move the economic needle in the short term. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range, and to spike periodically, but the changing product mix in the auto sector will bring the long-term equilibrium price down. The key risk is that we may be headed into a global slowdown with a deteriorating ability to respond due to ruinous levels of systemic debt that limit fiscal and monetary tools. It paid to be cautious in 2018 and the next twelve months should be no different with a likely rebound in the early part of the year giving way to renewed volatility. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/unknownunknowns-190107073651-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> The recent deterioration in global asset prices illustrates the moral hazard of keeping interest rates too low for too long and normalising prices at inflated levels. GCC profits rose by an estimated 12.7% last year and are expected to increase by 5.2% this year but 75 banks (11% of all listed companies) will account for 55% of total profits. All things being equal, the central case is that the Saudi market should rally modestly in the first few months of the year but could succumb to selling before Ramadan. There is strong support for regional reforms but anxiety over the lack of breakthrough developments that might move the economic needle in the short term. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range, and to spike periodically, but the changing product mix in the auto sector will bring the long-term equilibrium price down. The key risk is that we may be headed into a global slowdown with a deteriorating ability to respond due to ruinous levels of systemic debt that limit fiscal and monetary tools. It paid to be cautious in 2018 and the next twelve months should be no different with a likely rebound in the early part of the year giving way to renewed volatility.
The Arabian Markets: Unknown Unknowns from Tarek Fadlallah
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Saved by the Barrel /slideshow/saved-by-the-barrel/119563725 savedbybarrel-181016063644
揃 After a lengthy period of financial repression the era of global asset reflation appears to be reaching its inevitable conclusion. 揃 As the outlook for the global economy appears to be weakening, the prospects for the GCC economies may be getting better. 揃 Elevated oil prices have helped replenish state coffers and a flurry of policy initiative should revive economies.]]>

揃 After a lengthy period of financial repression the era of global asset reflation appears to be reaching its inevitable conclusion. 揃 As the outlook for the global economy appears to be weakening, the prospects for the GCC economies may be getting better. 揃 Elevated oil prices have helped replenish state coffers and a flurry of policy initiative should revive economies.]]>
Tue, 16 Oct 2018 06:36:44 GMT /slideshow/saved-by-the-barrel/119563725 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) Saved by the Barrel TarekFadlallah 揃 After a lengthy period of financial repression the era of global asset reflation appears to be reaching its inevitable conclusion. 揃 As the outlook for the global economy appears to be weakening, the prospects for the GCC economies may be getting better. 揃 Elevated oil prices have helped replenish state coffers and a flurry of policy initiative should revive economies. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/savedbybarrel-181016063644-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> 揃 After a lengthy period of financial repression the era of global asset reflation appears to be reaching its inevitable conclusion. 揃 As the outlook for the global economy appears to be weakening, the prospects for the GCC economies may be getting better. 揃 Elevated oil prices have helped replenish state coffers and a flurry of policy initiative should revive economies.
Saved by the Barrel from Tarek Fadlallah
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A Numbers Game /slideshow/a-numbers-game-96476457/96476457 numbersgame-180509055425
High valuations and a loss of momentum in risk assets have left them vulnerable to rising volatility The focus now is on quantitative tightening but the increase in global debt poses bigger risks over the longer term Sweeping societal changes in Saudi Arabia are breathtaking in scope but its difficult to attach a numerical value to developments or model for stock values The Saudi stock index is having a stellar year so far but not all is well across the other GCC markets The Aramco IPO has raised questions about its impact on the Tadawul index and the GCC markets more broadly The consistent call on the banks and petrochemical companies has been vindicated by their steady performance The bar to transformational change is very high and the obstacles significant. Pain before gain]]>

High valuations and a loss of momentum in risk assets have left them vulnerable to rising volatility The focus now is on quantitative tightening but the increase in global debt poses bigger risks over the longer term Sweeping societal changes in Saudi Arabia are breathtaking in scope but its difficult to attach a numerical value to developments or model for stock values The Saudi stock index is having a stellar year so far but not all is well across the other GCC markets The Aramco IPO has raised questions about its impact on the Tadawul index and the GCC markets more broadly The consistent call on the banks and petrochemical companies has been vindicated by their steady performance The bar to transformational change is very high and the obstacles significant. Pain before gain]]>
Wed, 09 May 2018 05:54:25 GMT /slideshow/a-numbers-game-96476457/96476457 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) A Numbers Game TarekFadlallah High valuations and a loss of momentum in risk assets have left them vulnerable to rising volatility The focus now is on quantitative tightening but the increase in global debt poses bigger risks over the longer term Sweeping societal changes in Saudi Arabia are breathtaking in scope but its difficult to attach a numerical value to developments or model for stock values The Saudi stock index is having a stellar year so far but not all is well across the other GCC markets The Aramco IPO has raised questions about its impact on the Tadawul index and the GCC markets more broadly The consistent call on the banks and petrochemical companies has been vindicated by their steady performance The bar to transformational change is very high and the obstacles significant. Pain before gain <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/numbersgame-180509055425-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> High valuations and a loss of momentum in risk assets have left them vulnerable to rising volatility The focus now is on quantitative tightening but the increase in global debt poses bigger risks over the longer term Sweeping societal changes in Saudi Arabia are breathtaking in scope but its difficult to attach a numerical value to developments or model for stock values The Saudi stock index is having a stellar year so far but not all is well across the other GCC markets The Aramco IPO has raised questions about its impact on the Tadawul index and the GCC markets more broadly The consistent call on the banks and petrochemical companies has been vindicated by their steady performance The bar to transformational change is very high and the obstacles significant. Pain before gain
A Numbers Game from Tarek Fadlallah
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The Gemini Economy /slideshow/the-gemini-economy/87238516 geminieconomy-180205074400
The Gemini Economy is about the duality of prospects for sectors, companies and business models in the age of structural change]]>

The Gemini Economy is about the duality of prospects for sectors, companies and business models in the age of structural change]]>
Mon, 05 Feb 2018 07:44:00 GMT /slideshow/the-gemini-economy/87238516 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Gemini Economy TarekFadlallah The Gemini Economy is about the duality of prospects for sectors, companies and business models in the age of structural change <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/geminieconomy-180205074400-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> The Gemini Economy is about the duality of prospects for sectors, companies and business models in the age of structural change
The Gemini Economy from Tarek Fadlallah
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Decade Of Disruption /slideshow/decade-of-disruption/82304381 decadedisruption-171119065651
- The subsidy arbitrage that many companies had relied upon to generate their generous margins is gone for good and the environment will continue to be challenging, and indefinitely so. - The case for consolidation across several sectors is overwhelming but activity remains low. Managers are in denial and holding out for miracles. - The closing window for regional economies to reduce their dependence on oil (highlighted in the Countdown to Midnight, November 14th, 2016) has been validated by the rapidly rising forecasts for the electrification of the global passenger vehicle fleet, which accounts for over a quarter of global oil demand. - Reform is not a magic wand and hope is not a strategy. To transform the economy from its dependency on oil and subsidies requires pain, sacrifice and perhaps a decade of disruption to the status quo.]]>

- The subsidy arbitrage that many companies had relied upon to generate their generous margins is gone for good and the environment will continue to be challenging, and indefinitely so. - The case for consolidation across several sectors is overwhelming but activity remains low. Managers are in denial and holding out for miracles. - The closing window for regional economies to reduce their dependence on oil (highlighted in the Countdown to Midnight, November 14th, 2016) has been validated by the rapidly rising forecasts for the electrification of the global passenger vehicle fleet, which accounts for over a quarter of global oil demand. - Reform is not a magic wand and hope is not a strategy. To transform the economy from its dependency on oil and subsidies requires pain, sacrifice and perhaps a decade of disruption to the status quo.]]>
Sun, 19 Nov 2017 06:56:51 GMT /slideshow/decade-of-disruption/82304381 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) Decade Of Disruption TarekFadlallah - The subsidy arbitrage that many companies had relied upon to generate their generous margins is gone for good and the environment will continue to be challenging, and indefinitely so. - The case for consolidation across several sectors is overwhelming but activity remains low. Managers are in denial and holding out for miracles. - The closing window for regional economies to reduce their dependence on oil (highlighted in the Countdown to Midnight, November 14th, 2016) has been validated by the rapidly rising forecasts for the electrification of the global passenger vehicle fleet, which accounts for over a quarter of global oil demand. - Reform is not a magic wand and hope is not a strategy. To transform the economy from its dependency on oil and subsidies requires pain, sacrifice and perhaps a decade of disruption to the status quo. <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/decadedisruption-171119065651-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> - The subsidy arbitrage that many companies had relied upon to generate their generous margins is gone for good and the environment will continue to be challenging, and indefinitely so. - The case for consolidation across several sectors is overwhelming but activity remains low. Managers are in denial and holding out for miracles. - The closing window for regional economies to reduce their dependence on oil (highlighted in the Countdown to Midnight, November 14th, 2016) has been validated by the rapidly rising forecasts for the electrification of the global passenger vehicle fleet, which accounts for over a quarter of global oil demand. - Reform is not a magic wand and hope is not a strategy. To transform the economy from its dependency on oil and subsidies requires pain, sacrifice and perhaps a decade of disruption to the status quo.
Decade Of Disruption from Tarek Fadlallah
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The Arabian Markets - Neverland /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-neverland/79043411 neverland-170822070842
Frothy global assets are flashing warning signs despite the lack of an obvious catalyst to sell Political action to redress rising inequality may provide the trigger Avoiding major market corrections can have a huge impact on long term portfolio returns The outlook for oil remains murky but expectations for a significant rally have receded Macro-economic indicators suggest a subdued outlook for the GCC Profits for listed regional companies are stable but the subsidy arbitrage is over]]>

Frothy global assets are flashing warning signs despite the lack of an obvious catalyst to sell Political action to redress rising inequality may provide the trigger Avoiding major market corrections can have a huge impact on long term portfolio returns The outlook for oil remains murky but expectations for a significant rally have receded Macro-economic indicators suggest a subdued outlook for the GCC Profits for listed regional companies are stable but the subsidy arbitrage is over]]>
Tue, 22 Aug 2017 07:08:42 GMT /slideshow/the-arabian-markets-neverland/79043411 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) The Arabian Markets - Neverland TarekFadlallah Frothy global assets are flashing warning signs despite the lack of an obvious catalyst to sell Political action to redress rising inequality may provide the trigger Avoiding major market corrections can have a huge impact on long term portfolio returns The outlook for oil remains murky but expectations for a significant rally have receded Macro-economic indicators suggest a subdued outlook for the GCC Profits for listed regional companies are stable but the subsidy arbitrage is over <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/neverland-170822070842-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> Frothy global assets are flashing warning signs despite the lack of an obvious catalyst to sell Political action to redress rising inequality may provide the trigger Avoiding major market corrections can have a huge impact on long term portfolio returns The outlook for oil remains murky but expectations for a significant rally have receded Macro-economic indicators suggest a subdued outlook for the GCC Profits for listed regional companies are stable but the subsidy arbitrage is over
The Arabian Markets - Neverland from Tarek Fadlallah
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Setting The Tone For Listing GCC State Owned Enterprises /slideshow/setting-the-tone-for-listing-gcc-state-owned-enterprises/76962374 hawkamahsoe-170615064133
Published in The Hawkamah Journal (issue 9)]]>

Published in The Hawkamah Journal (issue 9)]]>
Thu, 15 Jun 2017 06:41:33 GMT /slideshow/setting-the-tone-for-listing-gcc-state-owned-enterprises/76962374 TarekFadlallah@slideshare.net(TarekFadlallah) Setting The Tone For Listing GCC State Owned Enterprises TarekFadlallah Published in The Hawkamah Journal (issue 9) <img style="border:1px solid #C3E6D8;float:right;" alt="" src="https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/hawkamahsoe-170615064133-thumbnail.jpg?width=120&amp;height=120&amp;fit=bounds" /><br> Published in The Hawkamah Journal (issue 9)
Setting The Tone For Listing GCC State Owned Enterprises from Tarek Fadlallah
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https://public.slidesharecdn.com/v2/images/profile-picture.png https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/deliveringchange-240902115555-6b915055-thumbnail.jpg?width=320&height=320&fit=bounds slideshow/the-arabian-markets-delivering-change-in-gcc/271496946 The Arabian Markets - ... https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/thegoldenera-230410074225-34b0e716-thumbnail.jpg?width=320&height=320&fit=bounds slideshow/the-gccs-golden-era/257282745 The GCC&#39;s Golden Era https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/gamestopped-220420083558-thumbnail.jpg?width=320&height=320&fit=bounds slideshow/game-stopped/251624005 Game Stopped