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Minh H?ng Nguy?n

Th?c h┐nh ph│t hi?n v┐ kh?c ph?c hi?n t??ng ?a c?ng tuy?n

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B┐i th?o lu?n Hi?n t??ng ?a c?ngtuy?n Nh┏m 3
B?ng s? li?u N?m Y X Z T 1990 650 1000 250 17000 1991 800 1500 300 20500 1992 1350 2000 440 35354 1993 3250 2700 670 43210 1994 5200 3500 1018 51510 1995 8000 5500 1351.3 81760 1996 9500 6500 1607.2 98700 1997 8500 8500 1715.6 150000 1998 14000 9600 1520.1 150300 1999 15600 10700 1781.8 160900 2000 17000 11200 2140.1 180000 2001 20500 11700 2330.8 190000 2002 28500 13000 2628.2 220000 2003 35160 13500 2429.6 225000 2004 40200 14500 2927.9 227500 2005 46810 16000 3467.8 230000 2006 51000 17500 3583.5 234000 2007 56000 19200 4171.6 250000 Y: Thu nh?p t? du l?ch (t? ??ng) X: L??ng kh│ch n?i ??a (ng┐n ng??i) Z: L??ng kh│ch qu?c t? (ng┐n ng??i) T: L?c l??ng lao ??ng trong ng┐nh du l?ch (ng??i) n=18
Y = -7154.341848 + 3.522295X + 8.510220Z - 0.153362T L?p m? h━nhh┐m h?iquy V?i ? = 0.05 ta c┏ ?0.025 14 =2.145
Nh?n x└t ? ?2 = 0.941418 (> 0.8) ? ?1= -2.853439 ? ?2= 1.621886 (< 2.145) ? ?3= 1,357088 (< 2.145) ? ?4= -1,732066 (< 2.145)
X?y d?ng ma tr?nh?s? t??ng quan c?p gi?a c│cbi?ngi?i th┴ch H? s? t??ng quan gi?a X v┐ T l┐ 0.982561 H? s? t??ng quan gi?a X v┐ Z l┐ 0.982100
X└t h?i quy ph? ? Ti?n h┐nh h?i quy X theo Z v┐ T
S?d?ng nh?n t?ph┏ng ??iph??ng sai ? Ti?n h┐nh h?i quy X theo Z v┐ T
S?d?ng nh?n t?ph┏ng ??iph??ng sai VIF = 1 1??2 = 1 1?0.990976 = 110,8 > 10 ? Ti?n h┐nh h?i quy X theo Z v┐ T
?a c?ng tuy?n
Thu th?pth┷ms? li?u?? l┐m t?ng k┴chth??c m?u Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 04/08/15 Time: 13:22 Sample: 1 27 Included observations: 27 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -11327.12 2293.608 -4.938558 0.0001 X 0.665255 0.354903 1.874470 0.0736 Z 17.00844 2.850686 5.966437 0.0000 T -0.046844 0.040038 -1.169999 0.2540 R-squared 0.956872 Mean dependent var 30667.41 Adjusted R-squared 0.951247 S.D. dependent var 21302.64 S.E. of regression 4703.642 Akaike info criterion 19.88602 Sum squared resid 5.09E+08 Schwarz criterion 20.07799 Log likelihood -264.4612 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.94310 F-statistic 170.1000 Durbin-Watson stat 1.114994 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 ?2 = 0.956872 t1 =-4.938558 t2=1.874470 t3= 5.966437 t4=-1.169999 Y= -11327.12 + 0.665255X +17.00844Z - 0.046844T
B? bi?n kh?i m? h━nh ? Khi b? bi?n X ta c┏ ?2 = 0.930411 ? Khi b? bi?n Z ta c┏ ?2 = 0.933712 ? Khi b? bi?n T ta c┏ ?2 = 0.928865
?a c?ng tuy?n

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?a c?ng tuy?n

  • 1. B┐i th?o lu?n Hi?n t??ng ?a c?ngtuy?n Nh┏m 3
  • 2. B?ng s? li?u N?m Y X Z T 1990 650 1000 250 17000 1991 800 1500 300 20500 1992 1350 2000 440 35354 1993 3250 2700 670 43210 1994 5200 3500 1018 51510 1995 8000 5500 1351.3 81760 1996 9500 6500 1607.2 98700 1997 8500 8500 1715.6 150000 1998 14000 9600 1520.1 150300 1999 15600 10700 1781.8 160900 2000 17000 11200 2140.1 180000 2001 20500 11700 2330.8 190000 2002 28500 13000 2628.2 220000 2003 35160 13500 2429.6 225000 2004 40200 14500 2927.9 227500 2005 46810 16000 3467.8 230000 2006 51000 17500 3583.5 234000 2007 56000 19200 4171.6 250000 Y: Thu nh?p t? du l?ch (t? ??ng) X: L??ng kh│ch n?i ??a (ng┐n ng??i) Z: L??ng kh│ch qu?c t? (ng┐n ng??i) T: L?c l??ng lao ??ng trong ng┐nh du l?ch (ng??i) n=18
  • 3. Y = -7154.341848 + 3.522295X + 8.510220Z - 0.153362T L?p m? h━nhh┐m h?iquy V?i ? = 0.05 ta c┏ ?0.025 14 =2.145
  • 4. Nh?n x└t ? ?2 = 0.941418 (> 0.8) ? ?1= -2.853439 ? ?2= 1.621886 (< 2.145) ? ?3= 1,357088 (< 2.145) ? ?4= -1,732066 (< 2.145)
  • 5. X?y d?ng ma tr?nh?s? t??ng quan c?p gi?a c│cbi?ngi?i th┴ch H? s? t??ng quan gi?a X v┐ T l┐ 0.982561 H? s? t??ng quan gi?a X v┐ Z l┐ 0.982100
  • 6. X└t h?i quy ph? ? Ti?n h┐nh h?i quy X theo Z v┐ T
  • 7. S?d?ng nh?n t?ph┏ng ??iph??ng sai ? Ti?n h┐nh h?i quy X theo Z v┐ T
  • 8. S?d?ng nh?n t?ph┏ng ??iph??ng sai VIF = 1 1??2 = 1 1?0.990976 = 110,8 > 10 ? Ti?n h┐nh h?i quy X theo Z v┐ T
  • 10. Thu th?pth┷ms? li?u?? l┐m t?ng k┴chth??c m?u Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 04/08/15 Time: 13:22 Sample: 1 27 Included observations: 27 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -11327.12 2293.608 -4.938558 0.0001 X 0.665255 0.354903 1.874470 0.0736 Z 17.00844 2.850686 5.966437 0.0000 T -0.046844 0.040038 -1.169999 0.2540 R-squared 0.956872 Mean dependent var 30667.41 Adjusted R-squared 0.951247 S.D. dependent var 21302.64 S.E. of regression 4703.642 Akaike info criterion 19.88602 Sum squared resid 5.09E+08 Schwarz criterion 20.07799 Log likelihood -264.4612 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.94310 F-statistic 170.1000 Durbin-Watson stat 1.114994 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 ?2 = 0.956872 t1 =-4.938558 t2=1.874470 t3= 5.966437 t4=-1.169999 Y= -11327.12 + 0.665255X +17.00844Z - 0.046844T
  • 11. B? bi?n kh?i m? h━nh ? Khi b? bi?n X ta c┏ ?2 = 0.930411 ? Khi b? bi?n Z ta c┏ ?2 = 0.933712 ? Khi b? bi?n T ta c┏ ?2 = 0.928865

Editor's Notes

  1. Lo?i b? bi?n Z ra kh?i m? h━nh khi?n cho R2 cao h?n n┷n m? h━nh ph┫ h?p h?n, do ?┏ lo?i b? bi?n Z ra kh?i m? h━nh s? h?p l? h?n