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Analysing the cascading effects on critical infrastrcture in Torbay coastal/pluvial flooding with climate change

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Albert Chen

The document summarizes a study analyzing the cascading effects of coastal and pluvial flooding on critical infrastructure in Torbay, UK under climate change. The study uses models to simulate flooding scenarios and assess impacts on roads, buildings, utilities and other infrastructure now and in the future. Results are visualized in a serious game and 3D environment linked to maps. The goal is to understand direct and indirect consequences of flooding events on communities in Torbay.

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Analysing the cascading effects on critical infrastrcture in Torbay coastal/pluvial flooding with climate change M. J. Gibson1 / A. S. Chen1 / M.Khoury1 / L. S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia1 / D. Stewart2 / M. Wood2 / D. A. Savi1,3 / S. Djordjevi1 1 University of Exeter Centre for Water Systems, email: M.J.Gibson@Exeter.ac.uk 2 Torbay Council 3KWR Water Cycle Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
Presentation Outline EU-Circle project introduction The Torbay test case Methodology Coastal overtopping Torbay case set-up Serious game and 3D visualisation
EU-Circle Critical InfRastructure Cascade faiLurEs EU-CIRCLE project (www.eu-circle.eu) A pan-European framework for strengthening critical infrastructure resilience to climate change Project case studies France, Dresden(Germany), Torbay (UK), Cyprus, and Khulna (Bangladesh) Different models and problems addressed Similar approaches Loosely linked models Cascade effects of natural hazards Effects on critical infrastructure
EU-Circle Torbay Case study Exeter South West of England Area of approximately 62 km2 Settlement around coast used for industry and tourism Main settlements are Torquay, Paignton and Brixham Torbay Torquay Paignton Brixham
EU-Circle Torbay Case study Flooding scenarios to be tested as part of case study Coastal Flooding (1 in 200 year event) Pluvial/Fluvial Flooding (1 in 100 year event) Joint probability Event (Coastal: 1 in 50 year event, Pluvial: 1 in 100 year event) Resilience (1 in 200 year event, Paignton only) Climate change scenarios Now, 20 years, 50 years (joint probability and resilience scenario only) and 100 years Questions to be answered as part of the case study What roads are closed due to Xm depth of flooding? How many residential and commercial properties would be flooded? Identify all critical infra (assets) affected directly or indirectly by flooding? How many residents are affected by the storm event in question? What is the cost of a particular storm event? CADDIES high speed model used to perform multiple simulations http://emps.exeter.ac.uk/engineering/research/cws/resources/caddies-framework/
Methodology Data interdependencies Electricity Sub Station Telecom Exchanges /Boxes Sewer Pumping Stations Roads Rail Station and Line Buildings (Residential / Commercial) Electricity network area Sewer network area Telecom network area Point data Polygon data Coastal Event Pluvial /Fluvial Event Joint probability Event Input data Result Data Return period Climate Change Scenario Flood Depth
Telecom Network Area Pumping StationExchange Electrical Sub Station Critical Infrastructure Sewer Network Area Flooded Buildings & Road Road Diversion Electrical Network Area Methodology
Methodology Different cost curves specified for each area type Depth Cost 贈 Depth Cost 贈 Residential Commercial Road Diversion length Diversion Length Cost 贈/hr Rail Time of closure Cost 贈
Coastal Overtopping/Pluvial - Torbay Storm Emma 3rd March 2018 Torquay sea front available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oc2Imxkp9iY 1 in 50 year tidal event, 1 in 75 year pluvial event (although largely snow too, very rare)
Coastal Overtopping/Pluvial - Torbay Historic Flooding (above) Storm Emma (Below) Coastal flood inflow over 3 day storm event Inflows from AMAZON wave model
Original DataBuilding Mask DEM Coastal Overtopping/Pluvial - Torbay Building Levelled Area Type Infiltration (mm/hr) Green (Other) 12 +(rainfall reduction of 12 mm/hr for pluvial cases) Roads, Tracks, and Paths 19 Buildings 28 Ordinance Survey maps to specify infiltration Buildings raised to a doorstep level of 15cm Roughness of building increased from 0.015 to 0.1 Sea area removed from terrain, counted as closed border
Paignton Flooding results 2065 Pluvial & coastal combined costal adaptation
Direct damage (贈) 1,000 10,000 10,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 100,000 500,000 500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 + Indirect impact Direct impact only Low indirect impact Medium indirect impact High indirect impact Flood Impact to Paignton 1 in 200 year Coastal Overtopping Event with 50 years Climate Change 0 0 50 100 6b0 062 8 Results
36h 48h 84h 96h 12h 24h 60h 72h Direct damage (贈) 1,000 10,000 10,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 100,000 500,000 500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 + Indirect impact Direct impact only Low indirect impact Medium indirect impact High indirect impact
Serious Game and 3D visualisations Linked to Google Earth and Ordnance Survey Maps for flood visualisation
Acknowledgement EU-CIRCLE project has received funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme GA 653824 (http://www.eu-circle.eu) Development of CADDIES was funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, grant GR/J09796 (Simplified Dual-Drainage Modelling for Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas). We thank the data providers:
Analysing the cascading effects on critical infrastrcture in Torbay coastal/pluvial flooding with climate change M. J. Gibson1 / A. S. Chen1 / M.Khoury1 / L. S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia1 / D. Stewart2 / M. Wood2 / D. A. Savi1,3 / S. Djordjevi1 1 University of Exeter Centre for Water Systems, email: M.J.Gibson@Exeter.ac.uk 2 Torbay Council 3KWR Water Cycle Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands Thank you for listening. Are there any questions? Time for videos?
Serious Game and 3D visualisations Available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMfZPVGNw_M
Serious Game and 3D visualisations

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Analysing the cascading effects on critical infrastrcture in Torbay coastal/pluvial flooding with climate change

  • 1. Analysing the cascading effects on critical infrastrcture in Torbay coastal/pluvial flooding with climate change M. J. Gibson1 / A. S. Chen1 / M.Khoury1 / L. S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia1 / D. Stewart2 / M. Wood2 / D. A. Savi1,3 / S. Djordjevi1 1 University of Exeter Centre for Water Systems, email: M.J.Gibson@Exeter.ac.uk 2 Torbay Council 3KWR Water Cycle Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
  • 2. Presentation Outline EU-Circle project introduction The Torbay test case Methodology Coastal overtopping Torbay case set-up Serious game and 3D visualisation
  • 3. EU-Circle Critical InfRastructure Cascade faiLurEs EU-CIRCLE project (www.eu-circle.eu) A pan-European framework for strengthening critical infrastructure resilience to climate change Project case studies France, Dresden(Germany), Torbay (UK), Cyprus, and Khulna (Bangladesh) Different models and problems addressed Similar approaches Loosely linked models Cascade effects of natural hazards Effects on critical infrastructure
  • 4. EU-Circle Torbay Case study Exeter South West of England Area of approximately 62 km2 Settlement around coast used for industry and tourism Main settlements are Torquay, Paignton and Brixham Torbay Torquay Paignton Brixham
  • 5. EU-Circle Torbay Case study Flooding scenarios to be tested as part of case study Coastal Flooding (1 in 200 year event) Pluvial/Fluvial Flooding (1 in 100 year event) Joint probability Event (Coastal: 1 in 50 year event, Pluvial: 1 in 100 year event) Resilience (1 in 200 year event, Paignton only) Climate change scenarios Now, 20 years, 50 years (joint probability and resilience scenario only) and 100 years Questions to be answered as part of the case study What roads are closed due to Xm depth of flooding? How many residential and commercial properties would be flooded? Identify all critical infra (assets) affected directly or indirectly by flooding? How many residents are affected by the storm event in question? What is the cost of a particular storm event? CADDIES high speed model used to perform multiple simulations http://emps.exeter.ac.uk/engineering/research/cws/resources/caddies-framework/
  • 6. Methodology Data interdependencies Electricity Sub Station Telecom Exchanges /Boxes Sewer Pumping Stations Roads Rail Station and Line Buildings (Residential / Commercial) Electricity network area Sewer network area Telecom network area Point data Polygon data Coastal Event Pluvial /Fluvial Event Joint probability Event Input data Result Data Return period Climate Change Scenario Flood Depth
  • 7. Telecom Network Area Pumping StationExchange Electrical Sub Station Critical Infrastructure Sewer Network Area Flooded Buildings & Road Road Diversion Electrical Network Area Methodology
  • 8. Methodology Different cost curves specified for each area type Depth Cost 贈 Depth Cost 贈 Residential Commercial Road Diversion length Diversion Length Cost 贈/hr Rail Time of closure Cost 贈
  • 9. Coastal Overtopping/Pluvial - Torbay Storm Emma 3rd March 2018 Torquay sea front available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oc2Imxkp9iY 1 in 50 year tidal event, 1 in 75 year pluvial event (although largely snow too, very rare)
  • 10. Coastal Overtopping/Pluvial - Torbay Historic Flooding (above) Storm Emma (Below) Coastal flood inflow over 3 day storm event Inflows from AMAZON wave model
  • 11. Original DataBuilding Mask DEM Coastal Overtopping/Pluvial - Torbay Building Levelled Area Type Infiltration (mm/hr) Green (Other) 12 +(rainfall reduction of 12 mm/hr for pluvial cases) Roads, Tracks, and Paths 19 Buildings 28 Ordinance Survey maps to specify infiltration Buildings raised to a doorstep level of 15cm Roughness of building increased from 0.015 to 0.1 Sea area removed from terrain, counted as closed border
  • 12. Paignton Flooding results 2065 Pluvial & coastal combined costal adaptation
  • 13. Direct damage (贈) 1,000 10,000 10,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 100,000 500,000 500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 + Indirect impact Direct impact only Low indirect impact Medium indirect impact High indirect impact Flood Impact to Paignton 1 in 200 year Coastal Overtopping Event with 50 years Climate Change 0 0 50 100 6b0 062 8 Results
  • 14. 36h 48h 84h 96h 12h 24h 60h 72h Direct damage (贈) 1,000 10,000 10,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 100,000 500,000 500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 + Indirect impact Direct impact only Low indirect impact Medium indirect impact High indirect impact
  • 15. Serious Game and 3D visualisations Linked to Google Earth and Ordnance Survey Maps for flood visualisation
  • 16. Acknowledgement EU-CIRCLE project has received funding from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme GA 653824 (http://www.eu-circle.eu) Development of CADDIES was funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, grant GR/J09796 (Simplified Dual-Drainage Modelling for Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas). We thank the data providers:
  • 17. Analysing the cascading effects on critical infrastrcture in Torbay coastal/pluvial flooding with climate change M. J. Gibson1 / A. S. Chen1 / M.Khoury1 / L. S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia1 / D. Stewart2 / M. Wood2 / D. A. Savi1,3 / S. Djordjevi1 1 University of Exeter Centre for Water Systems, email: M.J.Gibson@Exeter.ac.uk 2 Torbay Council 3KWR Water Cycle Research Institute, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands Thank you for listening. Are there any questions? Time for videos?
  • 18. Serious Game and 3D visualisations Available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMfZPVGNw_M
  • 19. Serious Game and 3D visualisations
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