Connection between public communications of elites and public opinion about international affairs
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The document summarizes a study examining the connection between public communications of elites in Ukraine and public opinion about Ukraine-Russia relations. The study analyzes messages from politician websites and weekly public opinion polls from 2005-2008, coding texts for negative and positive attributes related to Ukraine-Russia relations. Regression analysis is used to determine if changes in elites' messages drive changes in public opinion over time. If so, it would indicate that politician communications influence and shape voter attitudes.
Connection between public communications of elites and public opinion about international affairs
- 1. Connection between public communications of elites and public opinion about international affairs Oleh Ivanov. Department of sociology of the National University Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Kyiv, Ukraine. Research interests: sociology of mass communication, political and electoral sociology, quantitative text analysis.
- 2. The object of study Mass communication Publics Viktor Yushchenko, President of Ukraine. Interest groups Electoral groups Yulia Tymoshenko, Prime Minister of ? Ukraine. Viktor Yanukovych leader of Party of Regions. P l bu
- 3. Central hypothesis In electoral democracies politicians say what their target electorate want to hear. Reason: Nations in Transit 2008: Democratization from Central Europe to Eurasia
- 4. Central hypothesis Reason: Nations in Transit 2008: Democratization from Central Europe to Eurasia, 息Freedom House, 2008 Consolidated Democracies Transitional Governments or Consolidated (1.00-2.99) Electoral Democracies (4.00- Authoritarian Regimes Slovenia 1.86 4.99) (6.00-7.00) Estonia 1.93 Bosnia 4.11 Azerbaijan 6.00 Latvia 2.07 Ukraine4.25 Tajikistan 6.07 Hungary 2.14 Georgia 4.79 Kazakhstan 6.39 Czech Republic 2.14 Belarus 6.71 Lithuania 2.25 Semi-Consolidated Uzbekistan 6.86 Slovakia 2.29 Authoritarian Regimes or Turkmenistan 6.93 Poland 2.39 Internationally-Administered _____________________ Bulgaria 2.86 Areas (5.00-5.99) NOTES: The ratings are Semi-Consolidated Moldova 5.00 based on a scale of 1 to 7, Democracies (3.00-3.99) Armenia 5.21 with 1 representing the Romania 3.36 Kosovo 5.21 highest level of Croatia 3.64 Kyrgyzstan 5.93 democratic progress and 7 Serbia 3.79 Russia 5.96 the lowest. Montenegro 3.79 Albania 3.82
- 5. Electoral split in Ukraine Russia
- 6. Data delimitation Messages about Ukraine and Russia relations.
- 7. Sources of Data Elites messages official web-sites. - comprehensive archive of important sayings - convenient data sorting - only politician influence upon direct speech selection
- 8. Sources of Data Public opinion monitoring data sets. - Weekly polls - August 2005 august 2008 - 152 data sets
- 9. Methodological issues Opinion vs messages correspondence. Extensive textual data coding
- 10. Opinion vs messages correspondence Defining electorate. Marking out Ukraine vs Russia questions Support/ disapproval identification:
- 11. Model of representation reproduction Time series of cross- sectional data: ((Yi,t, xi), i = 1, . . . ,m, t 1) Regression model: k Yi ,t = 硫 j ,t h j ( xi ) + 竜 i ,t , i = 1,...., m, j =1 iid with 竜 i ,t ~ (0, 2 )
- 12. Model of representation reproduction Regression model (matrix form): Yt = F硫 t + 竜 t , 竜 t ~ (0, 2 Im , where 錚 Y1,t 錚 錚 h1 ( x1 ) ... hk ( x1 ) 錚 錚 硫1,t 錚 錚 竜 1,t 錚 錚 錚 錚 錚 錚 錚 Yt = 錚 ... 錚, F = 錚 ... 錚 ... 錚 錚 硫t = 錚 錚 竜 t = 錚 錚. 錚Ym ,t 錚 錚h1 ( xm ) ... hk ( xm )錚 錚 錚 錚 硫 k ,t 錚 錚竜 k ,t 錚 錚 錚 錚 錚 錚 錚 If (硫j,t)t1, messages content depends upon PO.
- 13. Textual data coding Russian and Ukrainian languages. Negative & positive attributes connected with Ukraine and Russia relations.
- 14. Universal structured dictionary
- 16. Text structure analysis Formatting Example of Meaning code fromatted text "font-size: 14pt", "font- family: Tahoma; font-size: 丕 (www.unian.net) Source of 14pt", "color: #c80000" information "color: #a9a9a9", "font-size: 10pt" 06.03.2009 14:29 Message time and date "font-size: 14pt", "font- family: Tahoma; font-size: VR gave consent for Message 14pt; font-weight: 700; color: appointing Valentyn heading #c80000" Nalyvaychenko for post of SBU chief "font-size: 14pt", "font- family: Tahoma; font-size: The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine gave consent for appointing of Body of Valentyn Nalyvaychenko for the 14pt" post of the chief of the Security message . Service of Ukraine (the SBU).