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Cut on burning your dinosaurs, dude ¡ª Vadim Kuzmenko (Tech Stage)

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Black Sea Summit ¡ª IT-conference in Odessa
Black Sea Summit ¡ª IT-conference in Odessa

Cut on burning your dinosaurs, dude: Opower + Machine Learning VS global warming Most of the current humanity energy demand is satisfied with energy generated by burning our old dinosaurs. Only 1/10ths of the chemical energy contained in the fossils ends up being utilized as planned, the rest ends up warming and polluting our atmosphere. Reducing energy use by 1 killowat saves another 9 which would have been wasted (and no greenhouse gas emissions, Carl!). That's what we do in Opower: we use Machine Learning to discover patterns in large amounts of data. Data insights plus some behavioral science resulted in $1 billion of energy bill savings to date. Come and learn more! In our talk: * A bar and a school enter a bar... * What are the similarities between a bar and a school? * How do you make Greenpeace to love your bar? * How do we find answers to such questions? * Why should you believe us?

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OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Personalization Through Load Curve Analysis
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Yearly archetypes MONTHLY ELECTRIC USAGE? KWh Winter peak Summer peak Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Nancy is a winter peaker NANCY 2014 MONTHLY ELECTRIC USAGE KWh 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec But there¡¯s more ¡­
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Nancy has a smart meter!
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Daily data provides a peak under the hood NANCY 2014 DAILY ELECTRIC USAGE 0 23 45 68 90 1/2/2018 2/2/2018 3/5/2018 4/5/2018 5/6/2018 6/6/2018 7/7/2018 8/7/2018 9/7/2018 10/8/2018 11/8/2018 12/9/2018 Summer Vacation! On her way to a massive Dec bill, till she went on holiday
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Hourly data opens a window into how she lives NANCY 2014 WEEKDAY HOURLY USAGE 0 200 400 600 800 0:00 AM 2:00 AM 4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM Someone is often home during the day¡­. Her house gets going about 7am ¡­but they¡¯re most active 7-11pm (eat dinner ~9pm!)
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Profiling every customer ¡­ FOR A 1M HOUSEHOLD UTILITY 2 minutes / Household 1M Households 961 years
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Smart Meter Data 8
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C All Customers 9
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C After Clustering 10
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C Cluster Centroids 11
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Enter the AMI archetypes Steady Eddies Daytimers Night Owls 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day 0.004.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day Evening Peakers 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day Twin Peaks 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Twin Peaks¡± Archetype 13 Twin Peaks 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Steady Eddies¡± Archetype 14 Steady Eddies 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Evening Peakers¡± Archetype 15 Evening Peakers 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Night Owls¡± Archetype 16 Night Owls 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Daytimers¡± Archetype 17 Daytimers 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C Weekday vs. Weekend 18 Most common weekday archetypes Most common weekend archetypes
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Segment Customers
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Target Messaging: Afternoon Peakers This is an alert from UtilCo: Tomorrow, Wednesday, July 10th is a peak day. From 2 PM to 7 PM join UtilCo customers by reducing your electric use. Simple ways to save on peak days include postponing dishwashing and other large appliance use until the peak day is over. Thank you for helping us save! To opt out of phone alerts, press 9.
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Drive Improved Personalization Help drive acceptance of neighbour comparison vision
OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Drive Improved Personalization Recommendations tailored to profile type vision

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Cut on burning your dinosaurs, dude ¡ª Vadim Kuzmenko (Tech Stage)

  • 1. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Personalization Through Load Curve Analysis
  • 2. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Yearly archetypes MONTHLY ELECTRIC USAGE? KWh Winter peak Summer peak Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  • 3. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Nancy is a winter peaker NANCY 2014 MONTHLY ELECTRIC USAGE KWh 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec But there¡¯s more ¡­
  • 4. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Nancy has a smart meter!
  • 5. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Daily data provides a peak under the hood NANCY 2014 DAILY ELECTRIC USAGE 0 23 45 68 90 1/2/2018 2/2/2018 3/5/2018 4/5/2018 5/6/2018 6/6/2018 7/7/2018 8/7/2018 9/7/2018 10/8/2018 11/8/2018 12/9/2018 Summer Vacation! On her way to a massive Dec bill, till she went on holiday
  • 6. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Hourly data opens a window into how she lives NANCY 2014 WEEKDAY HOURLY USAGE 0 200 400 600 800 0:00 AM 2:00 AM 4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM Someone is often home during the day¡­. Her house gets going about 7am ¡­but they¡¯re most active 7-11pm (eat dinner ~9pm!)
  • 7. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Profiling every customer ¡­ FOR A 1M HOUSEHOLD UTILITY 2 minutes / Household 1M Households 961 years
  • 8. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Smart Meter Data 8
  • 9. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C All Customers 9
  • 10. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C After Clustering 10
  • 11. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C Cluster Centroids 11
  • 12. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Enter the AMI archetypes Steady Eddies Daytimers Night Owls 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day 0.004.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day Evening Peakers 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day Twin Peaks 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
  • 13. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Twin Peaks¡± Archetype 13 Twin Peaks 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
  • 14. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Steady Eddies¡± Archetype 14 Steady Eddies 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
  • 15. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Evening Peakers¡± Archetype 15 Evening Peakers 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
  • 16. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Night Owls¡± Archetype 16 Night Owls 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
  • 17. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C ¡°Daytimers¡± Archetype 17 Daytimers 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00 3% Proportionofusage? ineachhour 4% 5% 6% Hour of the day
  • 18. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Load Curves ¨C Weekday vs. Weekend 18 Most common weekday archetypes Most common weekend archetypes
  • 19. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Segment Customers
  • 20. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Target Messaging: Afternoon Peakers This is an alert from UtilCo: Tomorrow, Wednesday, July 10th is a peak day. From 2 PM to 7 PM join UtilCo customers by reducing your electric use. Simple ways to save on peak days include postponing dishwashing and other large appliance use until the peak day is over. Thank you for helping us save! To opt out of phone alerts, press 9.
  • 21. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Drive Improved Personalization Help drive acceptance of neighbour comparison vision
  • 22. OPOWER CONFIDENTIAL: DO NOT DISTRIBUTE Drive Improved Personalization Recommendations tailored to profile type vision