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Demand forecasting

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Mugdha Pednekar
Mugdha Pednekar

This document summarizes demand forecasting techniques for energy in Maharashtra State. It discusses key team members working on forecasting and outlines the objectives, steps, and techniques used in demand forecasting, including trend projection, surveys, and econometric methods. Formulas are provided for short-term and long-term demand forecasting of the Maharashtra State Electricity Board based on factors like income, population, price, and technology. Other energy sources available are also summarized along with demand response from industrial consumers. The conclusion notes the forecasting provides results on potential shortage, industrial generation, agricultural demand, and a wholesale electricity market for MSEB.

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Demand Forecasting Forecasting methods for energy in Maharashtra State
? ANISH KUMAR (10) ? NIZAMUDHEEN TK (50) ? AKBAR HASAN (12) ? MUSHARAT KHAN (21) ? TOSIF KHAN (24) ? AQUEEB NADIM KHAN (17) ? SAHIL GADHAVE (09) ? SHADAB KHAN (20) ? MUGDHA PEDNEKAR (32) Team Members
? “Demand forecasting refers to the prediction or estimation of future demand of a product.” ? Objectives ? Under or over production ? Market structure Demand Forecasting
? Identify products ? Set parameters ? Determine market ? Gather data ? Calculate actual forecast Steps in Demand Forecasting
Techniques Survey Methods Consumer survey Opinion Poll Statistical Methods Trend projection Barometric Econometric Techniques of Demand Forecasting
? Short Term Demand Forecast End-use method E = S x N x P x H where, E = energy consumption of an appliance in kWh S = penetration level in terms of number of such appliances per customer N = number of customers P = power required by the appliance in kW H = hours of appliance use. Demand forecasting of Maharashtra State Electricity Board
? Long term Demand Forecast Econometric approach ED = f (Y, Pi, Pj, POP, T) where, ED = electricity demand Y = output or income Pi = own price Pj = price of related fuels POP = population T = technology Demand forecasting of Maharashtra State Electricity Board
Residential ED = f (Y per capita, POP, Pi, Pj) Industrial ED = g (Y of power intensive industries, GFKF or I, index of T, index of GP) where, ED = Energy Demand GFKF = Gross fixed capital formation I = Investment T = Technology GP = government policy, and f and g represent functional forms Demand for energy in specific sectors
? Hydro Generation Availability ? Varies with rainfall ? 10,400 MW ? Liquified Natural Gas ? More than 5 million tons ? $3.5/MMBtu at Dahej Other energy sources
? High tension consumers ? 8870 HT consumers ? Consumption is 32 % ? Low tension consumers ? 297,612 LT consumers ? Consumption is 10% Demand response from industrial consumers
? Sophisticated and relevant tools ? Results for MSEB ? Acute shortage ? Industrial generation ? Agricultural demand ? Potential wholesale electricity market Conclusion
Demand forecasting

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Demand forecasting

  • 1. Demand Forecasting Forecasting methods for energy in Maharashtra State
  • 2. ? ANISH KUMAR (10) ? NIZAMUDHEEN TK (50) ? AKBAR HASAN (12) ? MUSHARAT KHAN (21) ? TOSIF KHAN (24) ? AQUEEB NADIM KHAN (17) ? SAHIL GADHAVE (09) ? SHADAB KHAN (20) ? MUGDHA PEDNEKAR (32) Team Members
  • 3. ? “Demand forecasting refers to the prediction or estimation of future demand of a product.” ? Objectives ? Under or over production ? Market structure Demand Forecasting
  • 4. ? Identify products ? Set parameters ? Determine market ? Gather data ? Calculate actual forecast Steps in Demand Forecasting
  • 6. ? Short Term Demand Forecast End-use method E = S x N x P x H where, E = energy consumption of an appliance in kWh S = penetration level in terms of number of such appliances per customer N = number of customers P = power required by the appliance in kW H = hours of appliance use. Demand forecasting of Maharashtra State Electricity Board
  • 7. ? Long term Demand Forecast Econometric approach ED = f (Y, Pi, Pj, POP, T) where, ED = electricity demand Y = output or income Pi = own price Pj = price of related fuels POP = population T = technology Demand forecasting of Maharashtra State Electricity Board
  • 8. Residential ED = f (Y per capita, POP, Pi, Pj) Industrial ED = g (Y of power intensive industries, GFKF or I, index of T, index of GP) where, ED = Energy Demand GFKF = Gross fixed capital formation I = Investment T = Technology GP = government policy, and f and g represent functional forms Demand for energy in specific sectors
  • 9. ? Hydro Generation Availability ? Varies with rainfall ? 10,400 MW ? Liquified Natural Gas ? More than 5 million tons ? $3.5/MMBtu at Dahej Other energy sources
  • 10. ? High tension consumers ? 8870 HT consumers ? Consumption is 32 % ? Low tension consumers ? 297,612 LT consumers ? Consumption is 10% Demand response from industrial consumers
  • 11. ? Sophisticated and relevant tools ? Results for MSEB ? Acute shortage ? Industrial generation ? Agricultural demand ? Potential wholesale electricity market Conclusion