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Future of mobility_vbo_22_03_19

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Aitor Somers
Aitor Somers

The document discusses future trends that could reshape mobility, work, and living. It identifies five trends that could decrease the need to move: decentralization enabled by technology, growing urban populations resisting cars, different mobility needs of new generations, and urban planners rethinking circular living. A scenario is presented where people may move less due to local integration of work, education and entertainment, and move more efficiently through shared, electric and autonomous transportation networks. Realizing this future requires collaboration between governments, consumers and companies to implement new models and overcome challenges from disruption.

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Future Of Mobility Futurathon - 22/03/2019
Future of mobility_vbo_22_03_19
INSPIRATION, VISION, STRATEGY, PLANNING ORGANISATION, CAPABILITIES, CHANNELS, GROWTH CULTURE, PEOPLE, CHANGE
Future of mobility_vbo_22_03_19
There is a perfect storm in the making with the way we move There is a perfect storm in the making with the way we work There is a perfect storm in the making with the way we live
How we move is changing What if these perfect storms came together and created one giant perfect storm in society? THE METASTORM How we work is changing How we live is changing
1. Our mobility challenges Based on individual car ownership
SAFETY Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day.
ENVIRONMENT For the first time in more than 40 years, the largest source of greenhouse gas pollution in the US is transport. (one-fifth of all US emissions)
LEISURE TIME The average person throughout their lifetime spends five years waiting in lines and queues where roughly six months of that is waiting at traffic lights.
INEFFICIENCY & OVERCONSUMPTION Personal vehicles sit unused for 95% of the day
HOUSEHOLD BUDGET Transport is the EU’s second largest household expenditure item after housing, weighing heavily on our spending power
2. Five trends solving current challenges
TREND 1: WE WILL MOVE LESS CAUSED BY DECENTRALIZATION Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
THE ON DEMAND ECONOMY The on-demand economy is changing customer expectation. We are used to getting everything, all the time from anywhere. Emerging tech players are disrupting various industries, which decreases our need to move.
3D MANUFACTURING 3D manufacturing will transform the traditional supply chain and the way products & materials are transported. It will reduce the number of shipments required by allowing businesses to manufacture products locally on their own.
NEW WAYS OF WORKING New ways of working are being implemented to meet the demand for individual work/life balance and job satisfaction. We’re evolving from time and location-based work towards performance-based work.
THE CAR IS BEING DISRUPTED AS THE GLUE OF SOCIETY Live Shop Work Meet Have fun ECOMMERCE TELECOMMUTE CO-WORKING SOCIAL MEDIA DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT IoT
TREND 2 CITIES AND CITIZEN RESISTANCE Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
GROWING URBAN POPULATION Every week, 3 million people are moving to cities. By 2050, ? of the population will live in cities. Cities are where the future happens first.
CITIES ARE BANNING CARS Cities all over the world like Brussels, Oslo, Madrid, Paris, New York… are taking initiatives to ban the car.
YOUTH IS TIRED Youth all over the world are skipping classes to take the streets, calling for more government action to slow down climate change.
CITIES ARE BANNING CAR Cities all over the world like Brussels, Oslo, Madrid, Paris, New York… are taking initiatives to ban the car. YELLOW VESTS MOVEMENT The movement is motivated by rising fuel prices, high cost of living, and claims that a disproportionate burden of the government's tax reforms were falling on the working and middle classes, especially in rural and peri-urban areas.
TREND 3 OTHER GENERATIONS, OTHER NEEDS Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
AGEING POPULATION Baby boomers are driving less when getting older. The combination of not commuting to work, adoption of on-demand models for like shopping (e-commerce), and the search of local social activities is decreasing the need to move.
NEW GENERATIONS New generations (Millenials and even more Gen Z) are true digital natives. The feeling of freedom is still important for them, but they prefer and easily adopt new services & business models for their mobility needs like e.g. ride-sharing over car ownership. Also, the car as a status symbol is not important for them as they care less about brands.
TREND 4 Technological trends are reshaping the automotive industry :connected, autonomous, shared & elektrified (C.A.S.E.) Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
ELECTRIFICATION & ENVIRONMENT The electrification trend is important as it helps reduce C02 emissions and obtain a greener alternative for the combustion engine, but doesn’t crack the code for other mobility problems like safety, spending power, overconsumption...
SHARED & SERVICES The sharing economy brings us new mobility services like carsharing, ridesharing, bikesharing and on demand delivery and are enablers for the mobility-as-a-service (MAAS) concept. We are evolving from owning a car to access to mobility.
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING Carmakers, car hailing and car rental companies, cities, start-ups and tech giants all are betting that self-driving will be inevitable. Taking the human out of the equation is actually a much safer overall driving experience and frees time for work, relaxation and entertainment.
CONNECTED Just like a traditional car with a combustion engine can’t function without oil, autonomous driving & mobility-as-a-service can’t work in a frictionless manner without data and connected vehicles.
TREND 5 URBAN & TECH PLANNERS RETHINKING HOW WE LIVE Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
800 YEARS AGO... We lived circular with all social function close together FROM LINEAR BACK TO CIRCULAR LIVING With new urban development concepts of walkable cities & villages.
Urban villages as a sustainable way of future rural and urban development. ● Circular lay-out ● Moving around on foot or by bike ● Maximum 30 min walking distance diameter (2.5 km) ● Maximum 10.000 to 50.000 inhabitants per “village” ● Mixed purpose: combining different functions (live, school, work, shop, play) ● Mixed diversity: combining people of different age, social & ethnic background and income levels. CIRCULAR LIVING - THE URBAN VILLAGE Cen l S a : Sc o s, ce r r i s, t e r , co n ha , pu c n or on Ac e s S e: Ac e s us , of s, … Pla r , ca és, ... Maj Ac e s Lan Mix Pur Bu l g Ho s , of s, s o s, ma -s o s, ... 2,5 k
DE NIEUWE DOKKEN - A PROTOTYPE URBAN VILLAGE IN GHENT school work co-housing living parks commerce shared mobility sustainable
TRYING TO CREATE UTOPIA Its planners are dreaming big: the new Amaravati will have an eco-friendly transport system that includes water taxis, electric vehicles and even a possible Hyperloop, It will be cycle-friendly and walkable, with Amaravati's expected 3.5 million residents able to find most of life's daily necessities within a 15-minute walk.
3. A SCENARIO For the future of mobility
Future of mobility Future of working Future of living
We might move less Future of mobility Future of working Future of living From local to global back to local. Reintegrating several functions like work, production, eduction, entertainment, living might decrease our need to move. Internet enhances us to keep in touch with the rest of the world and make this possible Urban village On demand ManufacturingLocal Connected
We will move less We might move smarter. Future of mobility Future of working Future of living We might move less We might move more efficiently and sustainably, decreasing the number of vehicles on the road and the number of kms driven. Connected Shared ElectrifiedAutonomous
We might move smarter. Future of mobility Future of working Future of living We might move less New models & the domino effect New players operate new (autonomous) fleets in an access-over-ownership model. This will cause a domino effect on various industries & companies. Domino effect Autonomous fleets Acces > ownership
We might move smarter. Future of mobility Future of working Future of living We might move less New models & the domino effect Make it work Governments, consumers and companies must realize the change. Shared by all vision Consumer mindshift Collaboration Legal & fiscal Framework Infrastructure
“ The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. “ Eleanor Roosevelt
Download the full vision slide deck (167 slides): Via this link Or connect with me to share thoughts: E-mail: Aitor.somers@duvalunion.com LinkedIn: @Aitorsomers
Future Of Mobility Futurathon - 22/03/2019

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Future of mobility_vbo_22_03_19

  • 3. INSPIRATION, VISION, STRATEGY, PLANNING ORGANISATION, CAPABILITIES, CHANNELS, GROWTH CULTURE, PEOPLE, CHANGE
  • 5. There is a perfect storm in the making with the way we move There is a perfect storm in the making with the way we work There is a perfect storm in the making with the way we live
  • 6. How we move is changing What if these perfect storms came together and created one giant perfect storm in society? THE METASTORM How we work is changing How we live is changing
  • 7. 1. Our mobility challenges Based on individual car ownership
  • 8. SAFETY Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day.
  • 9. ENVIRONMENT For the first time in more than 40 years, the largest source of greenhouse gas pollution in the US is transport. (one-fifth of all US emissions)
  • 10. LEISURE TIME The average person throughout their lifetime spends five years waiting in lines and queues where roughly six months of that is waiting at traffic lights.
  • 11. INEFFICIENCY & OVERCONSUMPTION Personal vehicles sit unused for 95% of the day
  • 12. HOUSEHOLD BUDGET Transport is the EU’s second largest household expenditure item after housing, weighing heavily on our spending power
  • 13. 2. Five trends solving current challenges
  • 14. TREND 1: WE WILL MOVE LESS CAUSED BY DECENTRALIZATION Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
  • 15. THE ON DEMAND ECONOMY The on-demand economy is changing customer expectation. We are used to getting everything, all the time from anywhere. Emerging tech players are disrupting various industries, which decreases our need to move.
  • 16. 3D MANUFACTURING 3D manufacturing will transform the traditional supply chain and the way products & materials are transported. It will reduce the number of shipments required by allowing businesses to manufacture products locally on their own.
  • 17. NEW WAYS OF WORKING New ways of working are being implemented to meet the demand for individual work/life balance and job satisfaction. We’re evolving from time and location-based work towards performance-based work.
  • 18. THE CAR IS BEING DISRUPTED AS THE GLUE OF SOCIETY Live Shop Work Meet Have fun ECOMMERCE TELECOMMUTE CO-WORKING SOCIAL MEDIA DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT IoT
  • 19. TREND 2 CITIES AND CITIZEN RESISTANCE Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
  • 20. GROWING URBAN POPULATION Every week, 3 million people are moving to cities. By 2050, ? of the population will live in cities. Cities are where the future happens first.
  • 21. CITIES ARE BANNING CARS Cities all over the world like Brussels, Oslo, Madrid, Paris, New York… are taking initiatives to ban the car.
  • 22. YOUTH IS TIRED Youth all over the world are skipping classes to take the streets, calling for more government action to slow down climate change.
  • 23. CITIES ARE BANNING CAR Cities all over the world like Brussels, Oslo, Madrid, Paris, New York… are taking initiatives to ban the car. YELLOW VESTS MOVEMENT The movement is motivated by rising fuel prices, high cost of living, and claims that a disproportionate burden of the government's tax reforms were falling on the working and middle classes, especially in rural and peri-urban areas.
  • 24. TREND 3 OTHER GENERATIONS, OTHER NEEDS Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
  • 25. AGEING POPULATION Baby boomers are driving less when getting older. The combination of not commuting to work, adoption of on-demand models for like shopping (e-commerce), and the search of local social activities is decreasing the need to move.
  • 26. NEW GENERATIONS New generations (Millenials and even more Gen Z) are true digital natives. The feeling of freedom is still important for them, but they prefer and easily adopt new services & business models for their mobility needs like e.g. ride-sharing over car ownership. Also, the car as a status symbol is not important for them as they care less about brands.
  • 27. TREND 4 Technological trends are reshaping the automotive industry :connected, autonomous, shared & elektrified (C.A.S.E.) Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
  • 28. ELECTRIFICATION & ENVIRONMENT The electrification trend is important as it helps reduce C02 emissions and obtain a greener alternative for the combustion engine, but doesn’t crack the code for other mobility problems like safety, spending power, overconsumption...
  • 29. SHARED & SERVICES The sharing economy brings us new mobility services like carsharing, ridesharing, bikesharing and on demand delivery and are enablers for the mobility-as-a-service (MAAS) concept. We are evolving from owning a car to access to mobility.
  • 30. AUTONOMOUS DRIVING Carmakers, car hailing and car rental companies, cities, start-ups and tech giants all are betting that self-driving will be inevitable. Taking the human out of the equation is actually a much safer overall driving experience and frees time for work, relaxation and entertainment.
  • 31. CONNECTED Just like a traditional car with a combustion engine can’t function without oil, autonomous driving & mobility-as-a-service can’t work in a frictionless manner without data and connected vehicles.
  • 32. TREND 5 URBAN & TECH PLANNERS RETHINKING HOW WE LIVE Impact on current problem: Safety Environment & health Leisure time Inefficiency & overconsumption Household budget
  • 33. 800 YEARS AGO... We lived circular with all social function close together FROM LINEAR BACK TO CIRCULAR LIVING With new urban development concepts of walkable cities & villages.
  • 34. Urban villages as a sustainable way of future rural and urban development. ● Circular lay-out ● Moving around on foot or by bike ● Maximum 30 min walking distance diameter (2.5 km) ● Maximum 10.000 to 50.000 inhabitants per “village” ● Mixed purpose: combining different functions (live, school, work, shop, play) ● Mixed diversity: combining people of different age, social & ethnic background and income levels. CIRCULAR LIVING - THE URBAN VILLAGE Cen l S a : Sc o s, ce r r i s, t e r , co n ha , pu c n or on Ac e s S e: Ac e s us , of s, … Pla r , ca és, ... Maj Ac e s Lan Mix Pur Bu l g Ho s , of s, s o s, ma -s o s, ... 2,5 k
  • 35. DE NIEUWE DOKKEN - A PROTOTYPE URBAN VILLAGE IN GHENT school work co-housing living parks commerce shared mobility sustainable
  • 36. TRYING TO CREATE UTOPIA Its planners are dreaming big: the new Amaravati will have an eco-friendly transport system that includes water taxis, electric vehicles and even a possible Hyperloop, It will be cycle-friendly and walkable, with Amaravati's expected 3.5 million residents able to find most of life's daily necessities within a 15-minute walk.
  • 37. 3. A SCENARIO For the future of mobility
  • 39. We might move less Future of mobility Future of working Future of living From local to global back to local. Reintegrating several functions like work, production, eduction, entertainment, living might decrease our need to move. Internet enhances us to keep in touch with the rest of the world and make this possible Urban village On demand ManufacturingLocal Connected
  • 40. We will move less We might move smarter. Future of mobility Future of working Future of living We might move less We might move more efficiently and sustainably, decreasing the number of vehicles on the road and the number of kms driven. Connected Shared ElectrifiedAutonomous
  • 41. We might move smarter. Future of mobility Future of working Future of living We might move less New models & the domino effect New players operate new (autonomous) fleets in an access-over-ownership model. This will cause a domino effect on various industries & companies. Domino effect Autonomous fleets Acces > ownership
  • 42. We might move smarter. Future of mobility Future of working Future of living We might move less New models & the domino effect Make it work Governments, consumers and companies must realize the change. Shared by all vision Consumer mindshift Collaboration Legal & fiscal Framework Infrastructure
  • 43. “ The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. “ Eleanor Roosevelt
  • 44. Download the full vision slide deck (167 slides): Via this link Or connect with me to share thoughts: E-mail: Aitor.somers@duvalunion.com LinkedIn: @Aitorsomers