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IDF

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Ako Heidari
Ako Heidari

This document discusses the impact of climate change on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. It explains that a warming climate could intensify the water cycle and make wet areas wetter and dry areas drier. It then describes how IDF curves are traditionally calculated based on rainfall observations but that considering climate change, newer generations of IDF curves use sliding windows and different time steps to generate curves. The document presents analysis applying t-tests to rainfall data from Reagan International Airport over different durations to determine if intensities have significantly changed over time. Future work proposed includes applying t-tests to more data sets using sliding windows and generating IDF curves from downscaled climate model output.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Ako Heidari
Climate Change ? Climate vs. Weather ? Climate Natural Variability
Green House Effect ?Co2 Concentration ?Green House effect
Intensification ?Intensification in Water Cycle Component ?Dry area more Dry ?Wet Area more Wet
IDF Curves Intensification Duration Frequency ? Based on rainfall observations ? relationship between the intensity (i) and duration (d) of a rainfall event ? with a given return period (T)
Classic IDF BURKES GARDEN, VA Length of storm (day) AmountofRainfall(mm) Return Periods
NOAA Report 50 years time series Year 1958 chose Just looked for 1 day VA: 92 station, 78 with no Trend
NOAA Report ? NOAA-Atlas 14, V.2 , Appendix 3, ? Looked for trend
IDF
IDF
Next Generation IDF ? Thinking of New Generations of IDF ? Addressing the climate change impact in Civil Engineering Design ? Different time steps ? Sliding Windows
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1 d 2 d 4d 7d 10d 20d 30d 45d 60d 1896-1916 1917-1937 1938-1958 1959-1979 1980-2000 IDF Curves 10 years return periods 5 Time Steps Length of storm Amountof Rainfall (mm)
N= The difference is NOT statistically significant at a % level. Y= This test is statistically significant. Mean 1 does not equal mean 2 Applying t-test t-test 0.99 0.95 0.90 0.80 1day N N N N 2 4 7 10 20 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 30 N N Y Y 45 60 N N N N Y Y Y Y
?Reagan International Airport, Daily and Hourly Data, since 1945 t-test t-test 1 hour 2 3 6 12 24 48 0.99 N N Y Y N N N 0.95 Y Y Y Y Y Y N 0.90 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 0.80 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y t-test 1day 2 4 7 10 20 30 45 60 0.99 N N N N N N N N N 0.95 Y N N Y N N N N N 0.90 Y Y Y Y N N N N N 0.80 Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N
Sliding Windows ? 86 Windows ? 20 years Lengths Window-1 Window-2 Window-3 year 1 d 2 d 4 d 7 d 10 d 20 d 30 d 45 d 60 d year 1 d 2 d 4 d 7 d 10 d 20 d 30 d 45 d 60 d year 1 d 2 d 4 d 7 d 10 d 20 d 30 d 45 d 60 d 1896 2.8 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.4 - - - - 1897 2.5 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 1898 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1897 2.5 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 1898 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1899 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1898 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1899 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1900 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1899 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1900 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1901 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1900 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1901 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1902 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1901 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1902 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1903 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1902 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1903 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1904 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1903 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1904 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1905 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1904 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1905 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1906 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1905 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1906 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1907 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1906 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1907 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1908 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1907 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1908 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1909 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1908 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1909 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1910 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1909 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1910 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1911 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1910 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1911 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1912 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 1911 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1912 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 1913 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1912 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 1913 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1914 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1913 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1914 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1915 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1914 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1915 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1916 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Future Works ? Applying the t-test on the sliding windows ? Looking over more data sets ? Generating IDF curves from the results of downscaled climate model ? Looking for appropriate statistics tests
IDF

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IDF

  • 1. The Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Ako Heidari
  • 2. Climate Change ? Climate vs. Weather ? Climate Natural Variability
  • 3. Green House Effect ?Co2 Concentration ?Green House effect
  • 4. Intensification ?Intensification in Water Cycle Component ?Dry area more Dry ?Wet Area more Wet
  • 5. IDF Curves Intensification Duration Frequency ? Based on rainfall observations ? relationship between the intensity (i) and duration (d) of a rainfall event ? with a given return period (T)
  • 6. Classic IDF BURKES GARDEN, VA Length of storm (day) AmountofRainfall(mm) Return Periods
  • 7. NOAA Report 50 years time series Year 1958 chose Just looked for 1 day VA: 92 station, 78 with no Trend
  • 8. NOAA Report ? NOAA-Atlas 14, V.2 , Appendix 3, ? Looked for trend
  • 11. Next Generation IDF ? Thinking of New Generations of IDF ? Addressing the climate change impact in Civil Engineering Design ? Different time steps ? Sliding Windows
  • 12. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1 d 2 d 4d 7d 10d 20d 30d 45d 60d 1896-1916 1917-1937 1938-1958 1959-1979 1980-2000 IDF Curves 10 years return periods 5 Time Steps Length of storm Amountof Rainfall (mm)
  • 13. N= The difference is NOT statistically significant at a % level. Y= This test is statistically significant. Mean 1 does not equal mean 2 Applying t-test t-test 0.99 0.95 0.90 0.80 1day N N N N 2 4 7 10 20 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 30 N N Y Y 45 60 N N N N Y Y Y Y
  • 14. ?Reagan International Airport, Daily and Hourly Data, since 1945 t-test t-test 1 hour 2 3 6 12 24 48 0.99 N N Y Y N N N 0.95 Y Y Y Y Y Y N 0.90 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 0.80 Y Y Y Y Y Y Y t-test 1day 2 4 7 10 20 30 45 60 0.99 N N N N N N N N N 0.95 Y N N Y N N N N N 0.90 Y Y Y Y N N N N N 0.80 Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N
  • 15. Sliding Windows ? 86 Windows ? 20 years Lengths Window-1 Window-2 Window-3 year 1 d 2 d 4 d 7 d 10 d 20 d 30 d 45 d 60 d year 1 d 2 d 4 d 7 d 10 d 20 d 30 d 45 d 60 d year 1 d 2 d 4 d 7 d 10 d 20 d 30 d 45 d 60 d 1896 2.8 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.4 - - - - 1897 2.5 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 1898 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1897 2.5 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 1898 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1899 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1898 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1899 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1900 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1899 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1900 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1901 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1900 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1901 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1902 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1901 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1902 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1903 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1902 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1903 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1904 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1903 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1904 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1905 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1904 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1905 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1906 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1905 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1906 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1907 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1906 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1907 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1908 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1907 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1908 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1909 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1908 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1909 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1910 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1909 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1910 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1911 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1910 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1911 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1912 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 1911 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1912 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 1913 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1912 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 1913 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1914 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1913 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1914 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1915 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1914 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1915 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 1916 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
  • 17. Future Works ? Applying the t-test on the sliding windows ? Looking over more data sets ? Generating IDF curves from the results of downscaled climate model ? Looking for appropriate statistics tests