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If there was one word I could cut from the English language today it would be this

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David Welsh

The document argues that Brexit will ultimately not happen for three key reasons: 1) No possible deal will be as good as the current deal, 2) As negotiations progress, the public will see that any deal will be bad, and 3) The British public still has the power to stop Brexit through tactical voting against MPs who support it. While some have given up hope, others must continue fighting Brexit by pledging to vote tactically and putting pressure on MPs to represent their views against leaving the EU. As time goes on and negotiations fail to produce a satisfactory deal, public opinion will continue shifting against Brexit.

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If there was one word I could cut from the English language today it would be this. It would be the word Sovereignty. Thats because it has no reality. Its a high sounding nothing. It may indeed be something, but if I had to pick a synonym for it would be the word curtain. Why? A curtain hides something.Now it may be a terribly visually impressive curtain if you like that sort of thing but its still a piece of fabric that blocks the light and obscures the view. So what happens when I pull back this curtain? What do we find? What we find is what really matters in all politics: local; national; international. We find power. Power is the ability to decide and to change, or for that matter to stop change. And I want you to think about that word power as I talk. Brexit is going to be stopped. It will not happen. Do not for a momentwaste your time buying the press release and spin machine fed nonsense the papers feed you. Dont even believe water coolerconversations. To believe Brexit wont be stopped is to misunderstand power but it also shows an absence of any real historical knowledge, or even a healthy scepticism. This would be far from the only really bad decisionin history that was turned around. Theresa May says Brexit is Brexit Frankly if she announced the UK was going to put a man on Mars it would be more credible. Heres why. There are in essencethree reasons. They work together. Rememberthat.
The first is at one and the same time the most and the least obvious. There is no conceivable deal that we might actually in the real world be offeredby the 27, the Norwegians (re EEA membership),the Argentinians (re WTO membership) anyone, which is going to be as good as the one we have now. Not one deal with the economic opportunity and ability to project our own power to protectour interests overseas. Now. The perfectlyreasonable objectionto that contention is it has always been true so why are we in this mess? We are in this mess because incompetentcareerist politicians launched a referendum than should never have beenrun because they thought it was in their interests. In fairness, this factor, the awfulness of the deal, is a necessarybut not a sufficientconditionfor stopping Brexit. If it was in their interests to leave even with an awful deal, no deal at all, our politicians would do it. But its not. Why? The second fact is that this reality is going to spread. The Secretary of State for Destroying the United Kingdom,David Davies, has told us there will be no running commentary on the negotiations. That is one of the least credible things ever said. The Brexit talks, if they happen at all, will be the mostcovered,the most leaked, the mostspun and analysed quite possiblyin human history. Brexit is the biggestevent in international history since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, let me tell you something. For various reasons Ive had minor dealings over the years with what the Americans call The secret community, which in my case has meant GCHQ, MI5, a few bits of the MoD and elsewhere. They have a saying. The signal and the noise.
The most important part of the job is separating the signal from the noise. Now, contrary to popular belief information is normally there to be found, especiallythese days. It is of course mixed in with rumour, error, disinformationand so on. But it is there. Over time, the signal will becomeclear. And the signal will confirm what I have just said. If there is any deal at all if will be awful. There might not be one at all. In fact, David Davies has said as much. And as for all these other wonderful deals we are supposed to have around the globe Liam Fox has a department with literally nothing to do. This is not going to be a secret. So the government wont be able to shove an awful deal through with us all in ignorance of what it means. Third thing. The most important thing. The final and clinching reason why Brexit will not really go through. Who finally has the power around here? You. This is how Put not your faith in princes. Dont wait for some new party or group of parties to be formed. So long as we have a parliament voted for by the people we have the power. And we do still have that and theres no decent reason to believe its going to vanish by 2020. But, some say, people are giving up. They are accepting the result. They dont agree with it, very few people have changed their minds. But they are either utterly despondentor determined to make the best of it. Well thats where we come in. I didnt realise when I went to Kate Hammers No Dust On Brexit event at the Conway Hall a couple of weeks ago that the building was partially founded by Thomas Paine, but I was chuffed to hear it.
Paine, of course,despite being an Englishman, was a great inspiration for the American Revolution. We have it in our power to make the world over again. And so they did. But its another phrase of his that sticks with me Sunshine Patriots. Sixteen million people voted Remain. You will never get sixteen million to march. It was something of a surprise 4 million signed a petition for a second referendum. And this isnt Ukraine, let alone revolutionary America. You are not going to have young people with their mouths covered by handkerchiefs soaked in urine hurling petrol bombs at the police. Exceptin Northern Ireland. But thats a differentstory. But you will, you absolutely will, get 16 million people to vote. And they havent changed their minds and there will be no reason for them to change their minds. In fact, considerthis. Its indelicate to say it but by the next election 2 million people will be dead in this country at an average age of 81 who were alive on 23rd June 2016. Rather more than that, in fact about 2.4m, will have reached their 18th birthday and be voting for the first time. In addition, there is considerable anecdotalevidence that those European citizens who are not UK citizens and intend to remain here are applying for citizenship. Some of our immigrants abroad are selling up and coming home as sterling plummets. Still others will register to vote. Whats more, referendum electorates and general election electorates are different. Referendum electorates are bigger.General elections attract a smaller crowd of people who by social class, education and so on are more likely to vote remain. And it matters.
Brexit is not a normal political decision.It isnt going to fade into the exclusive interest of only a part of our society. Its going to impact everyone, and with only a handful of exceptions for the worse. And lets go back to the news. The story isnt going away. It wont dominate every news cycle but its going to dominate rather a lot of them. And the news is going to be bad Thats where we come in. Paine used that phrase, Sunshine Patriots about the soldiers who left George Washingtons Army at the low point of the American Revolution, the winter hold up at Valley Forge. He used it disparagingly. I actually have more sympathy. I dont think a societycan function if everyone is dedicated to politics all the time. Wed all go mad or murder each other. But what a society does also need is the opposite of those Sunshine Patriots. It needs its Winter Soldiers,ready to stick it out through thick and thin and be there as a living witness that this isnt over, that its perfectlyacceptable not to agree to this result, its ok to fight it still, and to form a bridge both remainers and disillusioned leavers can all across. Thats where tactical voting comes in. It matters not who forms the next government if Brexit goes through. The next 25 years of UK political history will just be a powerless series of crisis management measures largely run by the civil service. What matters is Brexit is stopped.And as quickly as possible. So, we will recruit all those people,and ask them to take a pledge,that they will not vote for a sitting MP who will facilitate Brexit and will support any who will opposeit. Whats more they will tell them. Personally. Frequently. What they will also do is back the one candidate in each constituency we endorse.The one mostlikely to stop this nonsense. Now, if just the 4 million on that famous petition play ball that puts about a third of the House of Commons at risk. And who is to say we cant do better as the news grows worse and worse?
MPs do indeed care about many things but in the end they care most about their seats and their beautiful careers. We are threatening to consign them to the waste bin. Keep in mind its the credible threat of tactical voting that matters. That means we impact on MPs long before an election.And of course if we are still in the EU by the time of the next election, which is looking more likely than it did on 23rd June as the complexity of the issue dawns on those now in Government, we vote accordinglyfor a parliament that will stop this national catastrophe. So, Winter Soldiers,dont lose heart. Summers coming whether you see it today or not. And tell everyone. Proudly say this isnt over and explain why. As the news grows make sure all who can know it know it. Get them to pl65kledge and to write simple,personal emails to their MPs saying that up with this they will not put. And indeed to a nominated challenger that they are on their side. There is much work to do. We are starting from a low base, although its growing rapidly and now we have allies, which at the start of July we did not. And we have time. And our case,to quote Henry Kissinger,has the added advantage of being true. Keep fighting. Youll want to be there when this ends and know you gave of your best. I will too. Its the only moral thing to do. Thank you.

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If there was one word I could cut from the English language today it would be this

  • 1. If there was one word I could cut from the English language today it would be this. It would be the word Sovereignty. Thats because it has no reality. Its a high sounding nothing. It may indeed be something, but if I had to pick a synonym for it would be the word curtain. Why? A curtain hides something.Now it may be a terribly visually impressive curtain if you like that sort of thing but its still a piece of fabric that blocks the light and obscures the view. So what happens when I pull back this curtain? What do we find? What we find is what really matters in all politics: local; national; international. We find power. Power is the ability to decide and to change, or for that matter to stop change. And I want you to think about that word power as I talk. Brexit is going to be stopped. It will not happen. Do not for a momentwaste your time buying the press release and spin machine fed nonsense the papers feed you. Dont even believe water coolerconversations. To believe Brexit wont be stopped is to misunderstand power but it also shows an absence of any real historical knowledge, or even a healthy scepticism. This would be far from the only really bad decisionin history that was turned around. Theresa May says Brexit is Brexit Frankly if she announced the UK was going to put a man on Mars it would be more credible. Heres why. There are in essencethree reasons. They work together. Rememberthat.
  • 2. The first is at one and the same time the most and the least obvious. There is no conceivable deal that we might actually in the real world be offeredby the 27, the Norwegians (re EEA membership),the Argentinians (re WTO membership) anyone, which is going to be as good as the one we have now. Not one deal with the economic opportunity and ability to project our own power to protectour interests overseas. Now. The perfectlyreasonable objectionto that contention is it has always been true so why are we in this mess? We are in this mess because incompetentcareerist politicians launched a referendum than should never have beenrun because they thought it was in their interests. In fairness, this factor, the awfulness of the deal, is a necessarybut not a sufficientconditionfor stopping Brexit. If it was in their interests to leave even with an awful deal, no deal at all, our politicians would do it. But its not. Why? The second fact is that this reality is going to spread. The Secretary of State for Destroying the United Kingdom,David Davies, has told us there will be no running commentary on the negotiations. That is one of the least credible things ever said. The Brexit talks, if they happen at all, will be the mostcovered,the most leaked, the mostspun and analysed quite possiblyin human history. Brexit is the biggestevent in international history since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, let me tell you something. For various reasons Ive had minor dealings over the years with what the Americans call The secret community, which in my case has meant GCHQ, MI5, a few bits of the MoD and elsewhere. They have a saying. The signal and the noise.
  • 3. The most important part of the job is separating the signal from the noise. Now, contrary to popular belief information is normally there to be found, especiallythese days. It is of course mixed in with rumour, error, disinformationand so on. But it is there. Over time, the signal will becomeclear. And the signal will confirm what I have just said. If there is any deal at all if will be awful. There might not be one at all. In fact, David Davies has said as much. And as for all these other wonderful deals we are supposed to have around the globe Liam Fox has a department with literally nothing to do. This is not going to be a secret. So the government wont be able to shove an awful deal through with us all in ignorance of what it means. Third thing. The most important thing. The final and clinching reason why Brexit will not really go through. Who finally has the power around here? You. This is how Put not your faith in princes. Dont wait for some new party or group of parties to be formed. So long as we have a parliament voted for by the people we have the power. And we do still have that and theres no decent reason to believe its going to vanish by 2020. But, some say, people are giving up. They are accepting the result. They dont agree with it, very few people have changed their minds. But they are either utterly despondentor determined to make the best of it. Well thats where we come in. I didnt realise when I went to Kate Hammers No Dust On Brexit event at the Conway Hall a couple of weeks ago that the building was partially founded by Thomas Paine, but I was chuffed to hear it.
  • 4. Paine, of course,despite being an Englishman, was a great inspiration for the American Revolution. We have it in our power to make the world over again. And so they did. But its another phrase of his that sticks with me Sunshine Patriots. Sixteen million people voted Remain. You will never get sixteen million to march. It was something of a surprise 4 million signed a petition for a second referendum. And this isnt Ukraine, let alone revolutionary America. You are not going to have young people with their mouths covered by handkerchiefs soaked in urine hurling petrol bombs at the police. Exceptin Northern Ireland. But thats a differentstory. But you will, you absolutely will, get 16 million people to vote. And they havent changed their minds and there will be no reason for them to change their minds. In fact, considerthis. Its indelicate to say it but by the next election 2 million people will be dead in this country at an average age of 81 who were alive on 23rd June 2016. Rather more than that, in fact about 2.4m, will have reached their 18th birthday and be voting for the first time. In addition, there is considerable anecdotalevidence that those European citizens who are not UK citizens and intend to remain here are applying for citizenship. Some of our immigrants abroad are selling up and coming home as sterling plummets. Still others will register to vote. Whats more, referendum electorates and general election electorates are different. Referendum electorates are bigger.General elections attract a smaller crowd of people who by social class, education and so on are more likely to vote remain. And it matters.
  • 5. Brexit is not a normal political decision.It isnt going to fade into the exclusive interest of only a part of our society. Its going to impact everyone, and with only a handful of exceptions for the worse. And lets go back to the news. The story isnt going away. It wont dominate every news cycle but its going to dominate rather a lot of them. And the news is going to be bad Thats where we come in. Paine used that phrase, Sunshine Patriots about the soldiers who left George Washingtons Army at the low point of the American Revolution, the winter hold up at Valley Forge. He used it disparagingly. I actually have more sympathy. I dont think a societycan function if everyone is dedicated to politics all the time. Wed all go mad or murder each other. But what a society does also need is the opposite of those Sunshine Patriots. It needs its Winter Soldiers,ready to stick it out through thick and thin and be there as a living witness that this isnt over, that its perfectlyacceptable not to agree to this result, its ok to fight it still, and to form a bridge both remainers and disillusioned leavers can all across. Thats where tactical voting comes in. It matters not who forms the next government if Brexit goes through. The next 25 years of UK political history will just be a powerless series of crisis management measures largely run by the civil service. What matters is Brexit is stopped.And as quickly as possible. So, we will recruit all those people,and ask them to take a pledge,that they will not vote for a sitting MP who will facilitate Brexit and will support any who will opposeit. Whats more they will tell them. Personally. Frequently. What they will also do is back the one candidate in each constituency we endorse.The one mostlikely to stop this nonsense. Now, if just the 4 million on that famous petition play ball that puts about a third of the House of Commons at risk. And who is to say we cant do better as the news grows worse and worse?
  • 6. MPs do indeed care about many things but in the end they care most about their seats and their beautiful careers. We are threatening to consign them to the waste bin. Keep in mind its the credible threat of tactical voting that matters. That means we impact on MPs long before an election.And of course if we are still in the EU by the time of the next election, which is looking more likely than it did on 23rd June as the complexity of the issue dawns on those now in Government, we vote accordinglyfor a parliament that will stop this national catastrophe. So, Winter Soldiers,dont lose heart. Summers coming whether you see it today or not. And tell everyone. Proudly say this isnt over and explain why. As the news grows make sure all who can know it know it. Get them to pl65kledge and to write simple,personal emails to their MPs saying that up with this they will not put. And indeed to a nominated challenger that they are on their side. There is much work to do. We are starting from a low base, although its growing rapidly and now we have allies, which at the start of July we did not. And we have time. And our case,to quote Henry Kissinger,has the added advantage of being true. Keep fighting. Youll want to be there when this ends and know you gave of your best. I will too. Its the only moral thing to do. Thank you.