Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional
- 1. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Prof. Milo Jones Finance Department
- 2. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Who am I?
- 3. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Course Overview I. Session One Why is this course important to you? What we can actually achieve ? What do I expect of you? Where does this material come from? II. Session Two What is the TRUE macro context for any financial or investment analysis you will do over the next few years? III. Session Three How can you organize a basic search for information? What is important to know about strategic surprises ? IV. Session Four How can you analyze who the actors are and what their motives might be during foreign events with a market impact? CASE: Chinese REEs case & Three Track Analysis V. Session Five How can you apply Allisons frameworks to an M&A situation CASE: The battle for Endesa: Worth E.Ons Energy? VI. Session Six How can you refine your view of people? How can you refine your view of institutions? VII - VIII Sessions Seven & Eight How might you put the tools of this course together to understand an ongoing and highly complex investment situation? What is the IA3 Framework and how might you employ it? CASES: The Hermitage Fund & Hermitages Russian Quandary
- 4. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional A few other preliminary notes 損 What we achieve in eight sessions: Exposure - unconscious ignorance versus conscious ignorance Give you basic theories to help you notice things Give you basic tools to both organize information better Build better mental habits (i.e. give you something besides a hammer) AND TO ASK BETTER QUESTIONS OF YOURSELF, COLLEAGUES & EXPERTS Point you towards where to dig out more information
- 5. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Why did I create the course? Examples and Warnings
- 6. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional
- 7. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional A few weeks ago
- 8. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional 損 To a man with a hammer Examples
- 9. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Examples
- 10. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Some Warnings 損 NOTE WELL: Many of the frameworks and ideas in an intelligence course will prompt you to ask great questions, but 損 Under no circumstances is it design to encourage, condone, enable or glamorize criminal activity, including insider trading or any other unethical practices. 損 Governments can and should do things that business and finance cant and shouldnt! X
- 11. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What do Intelligence Agencies do?
- 12. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional 損 Intelligence Agencies do Big Picture analysis of the state of the world. What do Intelligence agencies actually do?
- 13. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional 損 Intelligence Agencies also collect actionable intelligence and issue specific warnings. What do Intelligence agencies actually do?
- 14. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional 損 Intelligence Agencies (sometimes) organize covert action. 損 (In my view, this is not a great mix with their main function). What do Intelligence agencies actually do?
- 15. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What do Intelligence agencies actually do? Tasking Collection Analysis Production Dissemination The Intelligence Cycle
- 16. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What do Intelligence agencies actually do? Tasking Collection Analysis Production Dissemination The Intelligence Cycle Where people focus
- 17. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 HUMINT = Human Intelligence
- 18. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 HUMINT = Human Intelligence
- 19. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 SIGINT = Signals Intelligence
- 20. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 SIGINT = Signals Intelligence
- 21. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 SIGINT = Signals Intelligence
- 22. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 GEOINT = Geospatial Intelligence
- 23. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 GEOINT = Geospatial Intelligence
- 24. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 GEOINT = Geospatial Intelligence
- 25. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What forms does Intelligence come in? 損 OSINT = Open Source Intelligence 損 FINSINT = Financial Intelligence
- 26. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What do Intelligence agencies actually do? Tasking Collection Analysis Production Dissemination The Intelligence Cycle Where you should seek an edge: original questions and inventive hypotheses!
- 27. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional What do Intelligence agencies actually do? Tasking Collection Analysis Production Dissemination The Intelligence Cycle Where the other magic happens (and ~75% of CIA people work)
- 28. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional An Example: China and REEs
- 29. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional An Example: China and REEs
- 30. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional An Example: China and REEs
- 31. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional An Example: China and REEs
- 32. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional An Example: China and REEs
- 33. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional An Example: China and REEs
- 34. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Please tell your firms Investment Strategy Committee 損 1) Why is there an apparent stoppage in Chinese REE exports? 損 2) Who or what is responsible for the apparent stoppage? 損 3) How might you explain their actions?
- 35. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Please tell your firms Investment Strategy Committee 損 1) Why is there an apparent stoppage in Chinese REE exports? 損 2) Who or what is responsible for the apparent stoppage? 損 3) How might you explain their actions? 損 A Reminder: 損 SEPT. 22, 2010 Amid Tension, China Blocks Vital Exports to Japan 損 OCT. 19, 2010 China Said to Widen Its Embargo of Minerals 損 OCT. 28, 2010 China Is Said to Resume Shipping Rare Earth Minerals 損 NOV. 10, 2010 China Still Bans Rare Earth to Japan
- 36. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Peeling the Onion 損 To answer these questions, we use what I call Three Track Analysis: 損 1) Construct a Timeline and Chronology of the issue (not just the news stories)
- 37. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Peeling the Onion(Timeline/Chronology example)
- 38. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Peeling the Onion(Timeline/Chronology example)
- 39. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Peeling the Onion 損 To answer these questions, we use what I call Three Track Analysis: 損 1) Construct a Timeline and Chronology of the issue (not just the news stories) 損 2) Then examine events in three ways, or Tracks: The Rational Actor Track The Organizational Process Track The Bureaucratic and Personal Politics Track
- 40. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track I
- 41. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track One: the Rational Actor Track The Unit of Analysis is a single, optimizing, truthful actor it is a unitary rational actor that makes "decisions.
- 42. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track One: the Rational Actor Track
- 43. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track II
- 44. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Two: the Organizational Process Track 損 Unit of Analysis: the Unitary actors formal parts (Ministries, Departments, Agencies, etc.) Assume that these sub-units act according to pre-determined procedures to produce an "output."
- 45. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Two: the Organizational Process Track 損 Unit of Analysis: This track is sometimes useful for otherwise mysterious events that dont make a unit look rational.
- 46. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Two: the Organizational Process Track 損 Unit of Analysis: the Unitary actors formal parts (Ministries, Departments, Agencies, etc.) Assume that these sub-units act according to pre-determined procedures to produce an "output."
- 47. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Two: the Organizational Process Track
- 48. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track III
- 49. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Three: The Bureaucratic and Personal Politics Track TRACK THREE - Unit of Analysis is key individuals or groups - This model ignores the "unitary actor idea, standard playbooks, and even formal organizational charts! It focuses on the different perceptions, personalities and preferences of self-interested individuals and (formal or informal) groups. It also screens for deception
- 50. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Three: The Bureaucratic and Personal Politics Track ?
- 51. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Three: The Bureaucratic and Personal Politics Track TRACK THREE - Unit of Analysis is key individuals or groups - This model ignores the "unitary actor idea, standard playbooks, and even formal organizational charts! It focuses on the different perceptions, personalities and preferences of self-interested individuals and (formal or informal) groups. It also screens for deception
- 52. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Three: The Bureaucratic and Personal Politics Track TRACK THREE - Unit of Analysis is key individuals or groups - This model ignores the "unitary actor idea, standard playbooks, and even formal organizational charts! It focuses on the different perceptions, personalities and preferences of self-interested individuals and (formal or informal) groups. It also screens for deception
- 53. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Three: The Bureaucratic and Personal Politics Track TRACK THREE - Unit of Analysis is key individuals or groups - This model ignores the "unitary actor idea, standard playbooks, and even formal organizational charts! It focuses on the different perceptions, personalities and preferences of self-interested individuals and (formal or informal) groups. It also screens for deception
- 54. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Track Three: The Bureaucratic and Personal Politics Track
- 55. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional If you want to Do it Yourself
- 56. 息 2015 Milo Jones Intelligence Tools for the Finance Professional Questions? You can contact me on Linkedin or Or via http://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/