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Prediction Markets and Competitive Intelligence

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wolf2voices

Tom Davis discussed how prediction markets can be used for competitive intelligence (CI). Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information held by participants to predict outcomes. They work best when participants are independent, diverse, and decentralized. Market design is key, and concerns about manipulation can be addressed through proper design that incentivizes discovery of truthful information. Great prediction markets function similarly to great social networks in how they engage participants and create new markets.

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Prediction?Markets? And?CI Tom?Davis 1
Telecom/Technology?CI ?&?Prediction?Markets 2
10?Years?Wall?St. 10?Years?Sprint 3
Prediction?Market?Is? 4
Ever?Traded? 5
Conference Summary 6
CI?Geek 7
Text Analyzer 8
The Buzz 9
>5,000?Words 10
Conference Summary 11
Learn 81 12
Competitive 77 13
Intelligence 97 14
Strat* 38 15
Tactic* 6 16
Information 37 17
Understand 31 18
Analy* 29 19
Research 27 20
Collect* 8 21
Value 19 22
Innovation 22 23
Techniques 21 24
Not?As Strong 25
Communicat* 14 26
Predict* 10 27
Future* 10 28
People 6 29
Early?Warning 14 30
Conclude 31
Wisdom 0 32
Crowds 0 33
Good?News 34
Social 14 35
Social?Network* 14 36
People 6 37
lg ia in ck or So y w uzz t eB Ns I 38
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Themes 40
<1> Prediction?Markets? Accelerating 41
<2> Prediction?Markets?Are? Perfect?For?CI 42
<3> Market?Design?Key 43
<4> Great?Prediction?Markets? = Great?Social?Networks 44
Disclaimer 45
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Market?Design 48
Tacit Information 49
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¡°We?Know?More Than?We?Can?Tell¡± 51
<introduction> 52
Prediction?Market Is? 53
¡°±õ²Ô´Ú´Ç°ù³¾²¹³Ù¾±´Ç²Ô?²Ñ²¹°ù°ì±ð³Ù²õ¡± 54
¡°±õ»å±ð²¹?¹ó³Ü³Ù³Ü°ù±ð²õ¡± 55
¡°·¡±¹±ð²Ô³Ù?¹ó³Ü³Ù³Ü°ù±ð²õ¡± 56
Markets Are?Designed 57
Information Aggregation 58
What?Does?That?Mean? 59
Prediction?Markets 60
Convenient?Way 61
Ask?Organization 62
A?Question 63
Get?A Good?Answer 64
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1+1+1+...N?=?? 66
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1.)?Independent 68
2.)?Diverse 69
3.)Decentralized 70
Average?Guess 3©\5% Actual?Beans 71
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More?Accurate 73
1+1+1+...N?=?? 74
The?Wisdom?of?Crowds 75
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New?York,?2007 79
1974 Nobel?Prize 80
Famous Economist 81
Hayek 82
Friedrich?von?Hayek 1899?©\?1992 83
¡°Knowledge?Of?The? Particular?Circumstances? Of?Time?And?Place¡± 84
Ability?Of?Prices To?Aggregate? Knowledge 85
Tacit Information 86
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¡°We?Know?More Than?We?Can?Tell¡± 88
Fast?Forward 89
Web?2.0? 90
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Internet + Prediction?Markets 92
Vendors 93
</introduction> 94
Theme?#1 95
<1> Prediction?Markets? Accelerating 96
ProQuest?Articles 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 97
Global?Companies? Accelerating?Use 98
Source: Cowgill, et al. Using Prediction Markets To Track Information Flows, Jan. 2008. (http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/index.shtml) 99
Prof.?Andrew?McAfee 100
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Uses? 104
Financial?Forecasting 105
Project?Management 106
Market?Research 107
Real?Time Competitive Intelligence 108
Examples? 109
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You?Prefer? You?Like? 119
What?Is ?Going?To Happen? 120
Prediction?Markets? Accelerating </1> 121
Theme?#2 122
<2> Prediction?Markets?Are? Perfect?For?CI 123
? 124
2?Kinds Prediction?Markets 125
©\1©\ Aggregate Primarily?Internal Information 126
©\2©\ Aggregate Primarily?External Information 127
Internally?Focused Markets 128
debate: TMI 129
¡°³Ù´Ç´Ç?³¾³Ü³¦³ó?¾±²Ô´Ú´Ç°ù³¾²¹³Ù¾±´Ç²Ô¡± 130
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CI Outwardly Focused 132
¡°Knowledge?Of?The? Particular?Circumstances? Of?Time?And?Place¡± 133
Tacit Information 134
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Normalize?Into Price?Or?Probability 136
Common?CI?Uses 137
Forecast?Competitor? Metrics 138
Industry?M&A Activity 139
Forecast?Trade? Association?Metrics 140
Forecast?Patent?&?IP? Activity 141
Forecast?Regulatory Actions 142
Raise?Awareness?Of? Competition 143
ABCs Why?Work? 144
<A> Accurate 145
<A> Anonymous?=? Speak?True?Mind 146
<B> Bias?Corrected?= Equal?Voice 147
<C> Consensus?Building?= Credible,?Impartial? Observer 148
<D> Incentives?To Discover 149
<E> Expensive?= Metrics ROI 150
<F> Fast?Set©\Up 151
<G> Highly?Scalable?= Many?Participants 152
Summarize 153
Market?Design 154
Tacit?Information 155
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¡°We?Know?More Than?We?Can?Tell¡± 157
Prediction?Markets?Are? Perfect?For?CI </2> 158
Theme?#3 159
<3> Market?Design?Key 160
? 161
You?Can?Design Better?Markets 162
Lessons?Learned 163
Single?Regulator 164
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Leverage 170
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Market Failure 172
·¡³æ©\²Ñ±ð±ô³Ù»å´Ç·É²Ô 173
Market?Mechanisms 174
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Market Failure 177
Not?Hard 178
Design?Right 179
Concerns? 180
<i> 181
Self©\Fulfilling Prophecy 182
<ii> 183
Manipulation 184
<i> Self©\Fulfilling Prophecy? 185
Market Reality 186
±Ê°ù´Ç©\°ä²â³¦±ô¾±³¦²¹±ô?¹ó±ð±ð»å²ú²¹³¦°ì?³¢´Ç´Ç±è 187
Distorts Outcome 188
²Ñ¾±²õ©\²¹±è±è±ô¾±³¦²¹³Ù¾±´Ç²Ô 189
No?Clear 190
Event Or Measure 191
Outcome Poorly?Defined </i> 192
<ii> Market?Manipulation?? 193
2 Varieties 194
©\1©\ Price?Manipulation 195
©\2©\ Outcome?Manipulation 196
©\1©\ Price?Manipulation? 197
Distorted Price?Action 198
Price Reality Time 199
Intentional?Losses To?Deceive 200
Not?Sustainable, Adds?Liquidity 201
Good?Design Price?Manipulation 202
©\2©\ Outcome?Manipulation? 203
Outcome?Changeable 204
Small?Group 205
Traders?Or Non©\Traders 206
Price Reality Time 207
E.g. 208
Vice?President? 209
Good?Design Outcome?Manipulation 210
Summarize 211
Self©\Fulfilling Prophecies?A?Form Manipulation 212
Possible?To Manipulate 213
Adds?To Liquidity 214
Poor?Excuse 215
All?Forecasting?Systems 216
Manipulable 217
Error 218
Bias 219
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Summarize 221
Market?Mechanisms 222
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Market?Failures 225
Not?Hard 226
Design?Right 227
Market?Design?Key </3> 228
Theme?#4 229
<4> Great?Prediction?Markets? = Great?Social?Networks 230
©\1©\ Social?Media?=> Fresh?Activity 231
©\1©\ Prediction?Markets?=> Create?New?Markets 232
©\2©\ Social?Media?=> Ask For?Engagement 233
©\2©\ Prediction?Markets?=> Traders Suggest?New?Markets 234
©\3©\ Social?Media?=> KISS 235
©\3©\ Prediction?Markets?=> KISS 236
©\4©\ Social?Media?=> Know?Your?Audience 237
©\4©\ Prediction?Markets?=> Know?Your?Trading? Community 238
©\5©\ Social?Media?=> What¡¯s?Happening?Now 239
©\5©\ Prediction?Markets?=> Short?Term?Markets Hold?More?Interest 240
©\6©\ Social?Media?=> User?Interface Makes?Or?Breaks 241
©\6©\ Prediction?Markets?=> User?Interface Increases?Trading 242
©\7©\ And?on?and?on... 243
The?Future? 244
et rk a M 245
et rk Is a M dy ea lr A 246
Great?Prediction?Markets? = Great?Social?Networks </4> 247
Summarize 248
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Market?Design 251
Tacit Information 252
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¡°We?Know?More Than?We?Can?Tell¡± 254
Ability?Of?Prices To?Aggregate? Knowledge 255
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Prediction?Markets? And?CI With?thanks?to?Lawrence?Lessig?and?Dick?Hardt?For?Presentation?Inspiration Tom?Davis 257

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