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- 1. 仍亳礌亳亠 仍舒仆亠于仂亞仂 舒从仂舒 仆舒 舒亰于亳亳亠 仆亠亠亳仄亳亠从仂亶 仂舒仍亳 亠亟亠仍 仆亠亠仗亠亠舒弍仂从亳 亳 仆亠亠亳仄亳亳 于 仂从于亠, RPTC-15 23 亠仆磡 2015 仍亠从亠亶 舒亠于
- 2. www.oil-am.ru 仂仆亳从: EIA (2014) 仄仍仆.弍舒./.仄仍亟.从弍../. 弌仍舒仆亠于亶 舒从仂 于 亠仆舒 仂仆亳从亳: ICIS, IHS, EIA 丶亠仆舒,$/boe 1. 弌亠仄亳亠仍仆亶 仂 亟仂弍亳 亞舒亰舒 仆舒 亠亞亳仂仆舒仍仆仂仄 仂亞舒仆亳亠仆仆仂仄 仆从亠 2. 弌亠仄亳亠仍仆亶 仂 亟仂弍亳 仆亠亳 仆舒 亠亞亳仂仆舒仍仆仂仄 仆亠仂亞舒仆亳亠仆仆仂仄 仆从亠 3. 弌亠-亠 仗亠仗亠从亳于 仆从舒 亞仍 IPEX 亳仆舒仄亳从舒 亟仂弍亳 仍舒仆亠于仂亞仂 亞舒亰舒 亳 仆亠亳 亳亰 仆亳亰从仂仗仂仆亳舒亠仄 从仂仍仍亠从仂仂于
- 3. www.oil-am.ru 弌仍舒仆亠于亶 舒从仂 于 从仂仆仂仄亳从亠 仂仆亳从: Valero. 亠亰亠仆舒亳 亟仍 亳仆于亠仂仂于 (2014) 弌仆亳亢亠仆亳亠 亠弍亠仂亳仄仂亳 仗仂亠舒 亞亳亟仂仂亳从亳 于 仆亠亠仗亠亠舒弍仂从亠 弌仆亳亢亠仆亳亠 亠弍亠仂亳仄仂亳 仗仂亠舒 仗仂亳亰于仂亟于舒 仄亠舒仆仂仍舒 亳亰 仗亳仂亟仆仂亞仂 亞舒亰舒 仂仆亳从: 舒亠 $4/mmBtu $1/mmBtu $12/mmBtu $/.(2012) -4% -5% -8% 仂仆亳从: The Boston Consulting Group (2013) 仂磦仍亠仆亳亠 亟亠亠于仂亞仂 于 弌亠于亠仆仂亶 仄亠亳从亠 仗仂亰于仂仍亳仍仂 于亠仆 从仂仆从亠仆仂仗仂仂弍仆仂, 仗仂亰于仂仍亳仍仂 仂从舒亳 亳仄仗仂 仆亠亳/亞舒亰舒, 仗仂于亳仍仂 仗亳于仍亠从舒亠仍仆仂 亳仆于亠亳亳亶 于 仆亠亞仂亠仄从仂亠 仗仂亳亰于仂亟于仂 (仆亠亠亳仄亳, 仆亠亠仗亠亠舒弍仂从舒, 仆亠亠仆仂仆亠 仗亠从亳 于 舒仆舒亟亠). 弌仂亞仍舒仆仂 亳仍亠亟仂于舒仆亳 Made in America, Again 仆亳亢亠仆亳亠 亠仆 仆舒 仗亳仂亟仆亶 亞舒亰 仗亳于亠仍仂 从 仄亠仆亠仆亳 亠弍亠仂亳仄仂亳 于 亳仄亳亠从仂亶 仂舒仍亳 弌丿 于 亠亟仆亠仄 仆舒 8%.
- 4. www.oil-am.ru 弌仍舒仆亠于亶 舒从仂 于 亳从舒 丐亅 1. 仂 亟仂弍亳 仍舒仆亠于 亞仍亠于仂亟仂仂亟仂于 仂仗礀亠仆 于亠仍亳亠仆亳亠仄 亟仍 仆亠亠亳仄亳亳. 仂 亟舒仆仆亶 亠亞仄亠仆 亰舒仆亳仄舒亠 于亠亞仂 10% 于 仂弍亠仄 弍舒仍舒仆亠. 仂仆亳从: IHS 仂仆亳从: Cheniere Energy. Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference (2015) S.Ikonnikova et.al. Fayetteville Shale Production Outlook, SPE Economics & Management, 2014 3. 仂仍亳仆于仂 亟仂仍亞仂仂仆 弌-从仂仆舒从仂于 仗亳于磶舒仆仂 从 仆亠礌仄 亠仆舒仄. 2. 仆仂亞亳亠 从仗仆亠 仍舒仆亠于亠 仄亠仂仂亢亟亠仆亳 弌丿 亳亠仗舒仍亳 仗仂亠仆亳舒仍 从亠仆亳于仆仂亞仂 舒亰于亳亳, 亳 亟舒仍仆亠亶亳亶 仂 亟仂弍亳 于仂亰仄仂亢亠仆 仂仍从仂 仗亳 仂亠 亠仆.
- 5. www.oil-am.ru 弌仍舒仆亠于亶 舒从仂 于 亠仆亟亠仆亳 丐亅 亠亟仗仂仍从亳 亟仍 亳仆于亠亳亳亶: 1. 仂亠从, 仆舒仗舒于仍亠仆仆亠 仆舒 亳仄仗仂仂- 亰舒仄亠亠仆亳亠 亳 仗仂于亠仆亳亠 亠从亳于- 仆仂亳. 2. 仂亠从, 亠舒仍亳亰亠仄亠 于 舒仄从舒 亟仂仍亞仂仂仆 仂亞仍舒亠仆亳亶 仄亠亢亟 仗仂亳亰于仂亟亳亠仍礆亳 亳 仗仂亠弍亳亠仍礆亳, 亠亞仍亳ﾑ亳 舒仗亠亟亠仍亠仆亳亠 亳从仂于 亳 亟仂仂亟仂于. 3. 仂亠从, 仗仂亟从亳 仂弍仍舒亟舒亠 于仂从仂亶 亠仗亠仆 亟亳于亠亳亳从舒亳亳 仗仂 仂弍仍舒礆 仗亳仄亠仆亠仆亳. 亳仄亠: CTM (Coal-to-Methanol) 舒亠亞亳- 亠从仂亠 仆舒仗舒于仍亠仆亳亠 仗亳仄亠仆亠仆亳 亞仍 亳 仗仂于亠仆亳 仆亠亞仂弍亠亰仂仗舒仆仂亳 亳舒. 亠亰仍舒亠 仆亳亢亠仆亳 亠仆 仆舒 仆亠亞仂亠 亳 亠仆 仆舒 弍舒亰仂于亠 仄舒亠亳舒仍, 仂从于舒亠 弍仍舒亞仂仗亳仆仂亠 仂从仆仂 亟仍 仂亠于仍亠仆亳 亳仆于亠亳亳亶. 仂从舒 仆仂从 亳亠 舒于仆仂于亠仆 从仂仆亳亞舒亳, 仂舒仆ﾑ 于仂从亳亠 亳从亳 从舒从 仂 仂仂仆 仗亠亟仍仂亢亠仆亳 , 舒从 亳 仂 仂仂仆 仗仂舒.
- 6. www.oil-am.ru 仂亰仄仂亢仆仂亠 仆舒仗舒于仍亠仆亳亠 亳仆于亠亳亳亶. 亠舒仆仂仍 亠舒仆仂仍 丐仂仗仍亳于仂 仍亠亳仆 丱亳仄亳 Ethylene Propylene C4=5 Gasoline UOP MTO 33% 42% 12% 4% ExxonMobil MTO/MTG 18% 24% 38% Lurgi MTP 61% 19% Technology HVC Yields 仆亠亠亳仄亳亳 亠于ﾑ亳亶 仆舒弍仂 亠仆仂仍仂亞亳亶 仗仂亰于仂仍磳 仗仂仍舒 仂仍亠亳仆 仗仂仍亳仄亠仆仂亞仂 从舒亠于舒 于 亳仂从仂仄 亟亳舒仗舒亰仂仆亠 仂仂仆仂亠仆亳亶 仗仂亟从亳亳. 仂仆亳从: MMSA China Monthly Methanol Analysis 亠舒仆仂仍 仂弍仍舒亟舒亠 亳仂从仂亶 亟亳于亠亳亳从舒亳亠亶 仗仂 仂弍仍舒礆 仗亳仄亠仆亠仆亳. 亠舒仆仂仍 于 从舒亠于亠 仂仗仍亳于舒 于 亳舒亠
- 7. www.oil-am.ru BASF Investor Day Chemicals segment, May 22, 2014 仂仍亠仆亳亠 仄亠舒仆仂仍舒: 1CO + 2H2 CH3OH 仂仍亠仆亳亠 亳仆亠亰-亞舒亰舒: . 舒亳舒仍仆仂亠 仂从亳仍亠仆亳亠 仄亠舒仆舒 CH4 + 遜O2 1CO + 2H2 . 舒亰亳亳从舒亳 亞仍 留CaHbOcNdSe(H2O)wA + 硫O2 1CO + 0,94H2 + 0,4CO2 + ... 1. +亠舒从亳 "仄亠亠仆亳" CO + H2O CO2 + H2 2. +舒仂于仂亶 亳仂仄亳仆亞 CH4 + H2O 1CO + 3H2 亠亳仄亠于舒 亳 于仂亰仄仂亢仆仂亳 于 仂亳亳 亠亳仄亠于舒: 仂于亠仆亳亠 亠从亳于仆仂亳 仗仂 C (从仂仍仂亞亳亠从亳亶 舒从仂, 亠弍亠仂亳仄仂) 亳于亠亳亳从舒亳 仗仂 仗亳仄亳亰舒亳 仗仂 (O2 H2O) 亳于亠亳亳从舒亳 亳仗仂仍亰仂于舒仆亳 亞仍 why are you making an investment? with our technology position, with our connection with our partner and the raw material position we are here on the cash cost curve. In a hypothetical situation in a long, long market, if prices fell all the way to the marginal producer, could we still earn premium on our cost of capital? If the answer is yes, then we build the plant
- 8. www.oil-am.ru 仍亳礌亳亠 仍舒仆亠于仂亞仂 舒从仂舒 仆舒 舒亰于亳亳亠 仆亠亠亳仄亳亠从仂亶 仂舒仍亳 弌弌 ! 仍亠从亠亶 舒亠于 亠仗舒舒仄亠仆 于亠仆仆 仗仂亠从仂于 a.kuchaev@oil-am.ru +7 (916) 112-03-08