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Seda workshop - exploring the future

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Florence Dujardin
Florence Dujardin

This document discusses ethnographic futures research (EFR) as a method to explore visions of the future. EFR involves developing scenarios to envision how a domain of culture may change over time. Key elements of EFR include identifying a population, cultural domain, horizon date, driving forces of change, and underlying assumptions. As an example, the document describes how EFR was applied in a project exploring digital pedagogical practices at the University of East Anglia over the next 5-10 years. EFR utilizes optimistic, pessimistic, and probable scenarios to envision different potential futures and spark discussions around shaping future possibilities.

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Exploring the future Ethnographic Futures Research Florence Dujardin (EDU/CSED, University of East Anglia) May 2017
SEDA project http://bit.ly/2oAJckP
Overview Potential Practical
息 Salvatore Vastano via Flickr
Ethnographic Futures Research 息 Salvatore Vastano via Flickr
Why capture visions of the future?
Why capture visions of the future? A community or society without a clear image of what it wants to get is hardly likely to end up wanting what it gets (Dator 2002)
Principles Design elements Scenarios
Principles 1. Avoid a technologically deterministic approach 2. Challenge assumptions rather than predict 3. Recognise how values and politics shape visions of the future 4. Acknowledge that HE has responsibilities that need to be reflected in these visions (Facer & Sandford 2010)
Ethnographic orientation
Five design elements 1. Population and culture whose future is explored 2. Domain of culture 3. Horizon date 4. Forces driving cultural change 5. Underlying assumptions (Textor 1980, 1990)
Example: UEAs SEDA project EFR design elements UEA project details 1. Population and culture UEA context: four faculties and support depts digital pedagogues (Bennett 2014) 2. Domain of culture Digital pedagogical practice 3. Horizon date 5-10 years in the future 4. Forces driving change Co-evolutionary view on technology and society Disciplinary and departmental considerations 5. Underlying assumptions Education plays a role in creating a fairer society Edtech is a key component of pedagogical practice
The fun bit
Stories we tell about the future are powerful resources for shaping our sense of possibilities and readiness to fight for change (Facer 2011)
EFRs fundamental building blocks Optimistic scenario Pessimistic scenario Probable scenario (Textor 1980)
Optimistic scenario If you could get all the technology you would wish to support students, what would the future look like? How do you see your (digital) practice developing? What supports your uses of educational technology? In your university setting, what are the trends and projects for TEL?
Pessimistic scenario In a least favourable scenario, what would the future look like? What would impact your practice the most? In your university setting, what are the challenges for TEL? How do you see your (digital) practice being affected? What are the barriers?
Most probable scenario Step back from the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios What are the most probable developments? How would your (digital) practice look like in this version of the future?
Look at other peoples contributions
Reflections & comments Benefits, issues, future use
References Bennett, L., 2014. Learning from the early adopters: developing the digital practitioner. Research in Learning Technology, 22 (July), 111. Clegg, S., Konrad, J. and Tan, J. (2000), Preparing academic staff to use ICTs in support of student learning, International Journal for Academic Development, 5 (2): 138148. Dator, J.A., 2002. Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education. Westport, CT: Greenwood Publishing Group. Facer, K., 2011. Learning Futures: Education, Technology and Social Change. Abingdon: Routledge. Facer, K. & Sandford, R. (2010) The next 25 years? Future scenarios and future directions for education and technology. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning. 26 (1), 7493. Textor, R. B. (1980) A Handbook on Ethnographic Futures Research. 3rd ed. Stanford, CA: Cultural and Futures Research Project, School of Education and Dept. of Anthropology, Stanford University. Textor, R.B., Ladavalya, B.M.L. and Prabudhanitisarn, S. (1984), Alternative Sociocultural Futures for Thailand: A Pilot Inquiry Among Academics, Faculty of the Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand. Textor, R. B. (1990) Methodological appendix, in Sippanondha Ketudat (ed.) The Middle Path for the Future of Thailand: Technology in Harmony with Culture and Environment. Honolulu, HI: Institute for Culture and Communication, East-West Center. pp. 194212.

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Seda workshop - exploring the future

  • 1. Exploring the future Ethnographic Futures Research Florence Dujardin (EDU/CSED, University of East Anglia) May 2017
  • 6. Why capture visions of the future?
  • 7. Why capture visions of the future? A community or society without a clear image of what it wants to get is hardly likely to end up wanting what it gets (Dator 2002)
  • 9. Principles 1. Avoid a technologically deterministic approach 2. Challenge assumptions rather than predict 3. Recognise how values and politics shape visions of the future 4. Acknowledge that HE has responsibilities that need to be reflected in these visions (Facer & Sandford 2010)
  • 11. Five design elements 1. Population and culture whose future is explored 2. Domain of culture 3. Horizon date 4. Forces driving cultural change 5. Underlying assumptions (Textor 1980, 1990)
  • 12. Example: UEAs SEDA project EFR design elements UEA project details 1. Population and culture UEA context: four faculties and support depts digital pedagogues (Bennett 2014) 2. Domain of culture Digital pedagogical practice 3. Horizon date 5-10 years in the future 4. Forces driving change Co-evolutionary view on technology and society Disciplinary and departmental considerations 5. Underlying assumptions Education plays a role in creating a fairer society Edtech is a key component of pedagogical practice
  • 14. Stories we tell about the future are powerful resources for shaping our sense of possibilities and readiness to fight for change (Facer 2011)
  • 15. EFRs fundamental building blocks Optimistic scenario Pessimistic scenario Probable scenario (Textor 1980)
  • 16. Optimistic scenario If you could get all the technology you would wish to support students, what would the future look like? How do you see your (digital) practice developing? What supports your uses of educational technology? In your university setting, what are the trends and projects for TEL?
  • 17. Pessimistic scenario In a least favourable scenario, what would the future look like? What would impact your practice the most? In your university setting, what are the challenges for TEL? How do you see your (digital) practice being affected? What are the barriers?
  • 18. Most probable scenario Step back from the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios What are the most probable developments? How would your (digital) practice look like in this version of the future?
  • 19. Look at other peoples contributions
  • 20. Reflections & comments Benefits, issues, future use
  • 21. References Bennett, L., 2014. Learning from the early adopters: developing the digital practitioner. Research in Learning Technology, 22 (July), 111. Clegg, S., Konrad, J. and Tan, J. (2000), Preparing academic staff to use ICTs in support of student learning, International Journal for Academic Development, 5 (2): 138148. Dator, J.A., 2002. Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education. Westport, CT: Greenwood Publishing Group. Facer, K., 2011. Learning Futures: Education, Technology and Social Change. Abingdon: Routledge. Facer, K. & Sandford, R. (2010) The next 25 years? Future scenarios and future directions for education and technology. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning. 26 (1), 7493. Textor, R. B. (1980) A Handbook on Ethnographic Futures Research. 3rd ed. Stanford, CA: Cultural and Futures Research Project, School of Education and Dept. of Anthropology, Stanford University. Textor, R.B., Ladavalya, B.M.L. and Prabudhanitisarn, S. (1984), Alternative Sociocultural Futures for Thailand: A Pilot Inquiry Among Academics, Faculty of the Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand. Textor, R. B. (1990) Methodological appendix, in Sippanondha Ketudat (ed.) The Middle Path for the Future of Thailand: Technology in Harmony with Culture and Environment. Honolulu, HI: Institute for Culture and Communication, East-West Center. pp. 194212.

Editor's Notes

  1. Enhancing students digital literacies has now become a responsibility for lecturers. Academic developers need to support lecturers. UEAs centre for staff and educational development (CSED) invited a small number of digital pedagogues to imagine the future of their digital practice at UEA. We used EFR to elicit their views. Why? - this method has been used to explore digital engagement in society and socio-technical futures in education - we wanted to find out how best to support TEL practices in the future.