際際滷

際際滷Share a Scribd company logo
Some thoughts on design
                      research, models and
                           simulations
                            Peter Sloep




Friday, May 4, 12
Overview

                     Part I: ordinary research, the essentialia
                     Part II: design research, the differences
                     Part III: models


Friday, May 4, 12
Caveat

                     A quick and dirty introduction to some
                      aspects of the philosophies of science and
                      technology
                     Sometimes less than accurate, sometimes
                      plain wrong, but always in an attempt to be
                      useful.



Friday, May 4, 12
Ordinary research,
                    aimed at understanding
                         and control


Friday, May 4, 12
Theoretical models

                         Ia        Ib
                    S1        S2        S3

                         Ic




Friday, May 4, 12
Theoretical models
                           smoke          therapy
                             Ia                Ib
                      S1             S2             S3
            healthy          Ic       cancer             dead
                           therapy




Friday, May 4, 12
 for a model to be useful, you need
                      descriptive apparatus, vocabulary
                      rules for how to use it, grammar, syntax
                      rules that uses the vocabulary and syntax
                        to describe possible model behaviours




Friday, May 4, 12
 rules about possible behaviours are
                      interesting

                     they are generalizations, subsume instances
                      of model behaviour

                     form: whenever X then Y


Friday, May 4, 12
 all kinds of vocabularies and syntaxes
                      math.: diff. equations, 鍖nite automata,
                        probability calculus

                       computer languages: Stella, Netlogo
                       ordinary language (but formal languages
                        are much more powerful because they
                        allow inferences from axioms)


Friday, May 4, 12
What use are models?
                     Are the generalizations true of the world?
                      you test a model
                      predict future behaviour, check if it
                        occurs
                       yes: more con鍖dence
                       no: adapt or fully reject model
Friday, May 4, 12
 A word on statistics
                      some models are stochastic, their
                        behaviour is stochastic

                      but all data are subject to chance
                        variation; you use statistics for the latter,
                        to quantify uncertainty in your decision
                        to accept the model or reject it



Friday, May 4, 12
What use are models?

                     Are the generalizations useful in the world?
                      you explain the world by using model
                        generalizations on phenomena
                       you control the world by using the
                        model to predict phenomena



Friday, May 4, 12
Design research,
                    focused on artefact
                     design for control


Friday, May 4, 12
 artefacts are designed and developed to
                      help control the empirical world

                     there always are desired phenomena, the
                      artefact causes them to occur

                     there thus is a targeted state of the world
                      and an obtained state of the world




Friday, May 4, 12
St

                    Si       So
                         I




Friday, May 4, 12
 building an aeroplane to 鍖y
                     setting up an organization (bank) to lend
                      money to investors

                     building a learning network to facilitate
                      competence development, creativity and
                      knowledge sharing of non-formal learners




Friday, May 4, 12
Artefactual models
                     As the artefact is to perform a function,
                      you now build a model that describes the
                      artefacts behaviour, using bits and pieces of
                      relevant theoretical models
                     Such a model I call an artefactual
                      model, to distinguish it from theoretical
                      models


Friday, May 4, 12
Test
                     to the extent it incorporates theoretical
                      models, con鍖dence carries over from them
                     to the extent it rests on untested
                      assumptions (structural and parametric)
                      you test it
                       experts, independent tests
                       you thus contribute to theor. model dev.!
Friday, May 4, 12
Simulate
                     Use the artefuactual model to explore the
                      artefacts behaviour through simulations
                     Empirical tests are costly, dangerous,
                      unethical, etc.
                     Simulations are pseudo-performance tests
                      of the artefact
                     They may lead to design improvements
Friday, May 4, 12
Empirical test
                     Carry out empirical tests of artefact
                      performance
                       effectiveness - gap between actual and
                        desired behaviour
                       ef鍖ciency - costs of obtaining desired
                        performance level increase
                       sustainability - costs of maintenance
Friday, May 4, 12
How



Friday, May 4, 12
Model ingredients
                    1. identify the system and its boundaries: draw
                       a causal network
                    2. identify variables and constants
                    3. identify state variables (laws of succession,
                       variables that describe state transitions)
                       and and input variables (variables that drive
                       change)


Friday, May 4, 12
1. choose output variables, what changes you
                       want to measure (could be a state variable)

                    2. choose a suitable modelling language

                       analytic, using math. equations, often
                        differential equations

                       numerical, using computers, dedicated
                        language, e.g. Netlogo, Stella, Brahms, ...


Friday, May 4, 12

More Related Content

some thoughts about design research

  • 1. Some thoughts on design research, models and simulations Peter Sloep Friday, May 4, 12
  • 2. Overview Part I: ordinary research, the essentialia Part II: design research, the differences Part III: models Friday, May 4, 12
  • 3. Caveat A quick and dirty introduction to some aspects of the philosophies of science and technology Sometimes less than accurate, sometimes plain wrong, but always in an attempt to be useful. Friday, May 4, 12
  • 4. Ordinary research, aimed at understanding and control Friday, May 4, 12
  • 5. Theoretical models Ia Ib S1 S2 S3 Ic Friday, May 4, 12
  • 6. Theoretical models smoke therapy Ia Ib S1 S2 S3 healthy Ic cancer dead therapy Friday, May 4, 12
  • 7. for a model to be useful, you need descriptive apparatus, vocabulary rules for how to use it, grammar, syntax rules that uses the vocabulary and syntax to describe possible model behaviours Friday, May 4, 12
  • 8. rules about possible behaviours are interesting they are generalizations, subsume instances of model behaviour form: whenever X then Y Friday, May 4, 12
  • 9. all kinds of vocabularies and syntaxes math.: diff. equations, 鍖nite automata, probability calculus computer languages: Stella, Netlogo ordinary language (but formal languages are much more powerful because they allow inferences from axioms) Friday, May 4, 12
  • 10. What use are models? Are the generalizations true of the world? you test a model predict future behaviour, check if it occurs yes: more con鍖dence no: adapt or fully reject model Friday, May 4, 12
  • 11. A word on statistics some models are stochastic, their behaviour is stochastic but all data are subject to chance variation; you use statistics for the latter, to quantify uncertainty in your decision to accept the model or reject it Friday, May 4, 12
  • 12. What use are models? Are the generalizations useful in the world? you explain the world by using model generalizations on phenomena you control the world by using the model to predict phenomena Friday, May 4, 12
  • 13. Design research, focused on artefact design for control Friday, May 4, 12
  • 14. artefacts are designed and developed to help control the empirical world there always are desired phenomena, the artefact causes them to occur there thus is a targeted state of the world and an obtained state of the world Friday, May 4, 12
  • 15. St Si So I Friday, May 4, 12
  • 16. building an aeroplane to 鍖y setting up an organization (bank) to lend money to investors building a learning network to facilitate competence development, creativity and knowledge sharing of non-formal learners Friday, May 4, 12
  • 17. Artefactual models As the artefact is to perform a function, you now build a model that describes the artefacts behaviour, using bits and pieces of relevant theoretical models Such a model I call an artefactual model, to distinguish it from theoretical models Friday, May 4, 12
  • 18. Test to the extent it incorporates theoretical models, con鍖dence carries over from them to the extent it rests on untested assumptions (structural and parametric) you test it experts, independent tests you thus contribute to theor. model dev.! Friday, May 4, 12
  • 19. Simulate Use the artefuactual model to explore the artefacts behaviour through simulations Empirical tests are costly, dangerous, unethical, etc. Simulations are pseudo-performance tests of the artefact They may lead to design improvements Friday, May 4, 12
  • 20. Empirical test Carry out empirical tests of artefact performance effectiveness - gap between actual and desired behaviour ef鍖ciency - costs of obtaining desired performance level increase sustainability - costs of maintenance Friday, May 4, 12
  • 22. Model ingredients 1. identify the system and its boundaries: draw a causal network 2. identify variables and constants 3. identify state variables (laws of succession, variables that describe state transitions) and and input variables (variables that drive change) Friday, May 4, 12
  • 23. 1. choose output variables, what changes you want to measure (could be a state variable) 2. choose a suitable modelling language analytic, using math. equations, often differential equations numerical, using computers, dedicated language, e.g. Netlogo, Stella, Brahms, ... Friday, May 4, 12