�ݺ�ߣ

‫الدراسات‬‫العليا‬‫والعلاقات‬‫الثقافيه‬
‫كلية‬‫الهندسة-جامعة‬‫مجمع‬ -‫طنطا‬‫الكليات‬‫بسبرباى‬‫الدور‬‫الثالث-مبنى‬‫إدارة‬‫الكلية‬
E-mail:tanengpgr@yahoo.comTel./Fax: (+20) 40 3315860
PPost-ost-GGraduateraduate
SStudies &tudies & RResearchesearch
Research Proposal for
Degree of Philosophy in Civil Engineering
Date Decamber 2014
Name Mohammed Ibraheem Abdul-Majeed Idress
Department Irrigation and Hydraulics Engineering Department
General Field Hydraulics
Research Scope Inundation Hazards and Flood Waves Propagation
Last degree
Master in Civil Engineering (Irrigation and Hydraulics
Engineering Engineering)
Title Risk Assessment of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Break
Aim of Research:
Dam break may cause catastrophic flooding in the downstream area, which
may result in huge loss to human life and property. This loss to life and
property would vary with extent of inundation area, the propagation of flood
waves, size of population at risk, and the amount of warning time available.
The aim of this research is to predict the dam break flood, which is very
important for the purposes of planning and decision making concerning to
dam safety, controlling downstream developments, contingency evacuation
planning and real time flood forecasting. For assessing the flood damage due
to dam break, it is necessary to predict not only the possibility and mode of
failure, but also the flood hydrograph of discharge from the dam break and
the propagation of the flood waves.
Statement of the Problem:

The storage and hydropower generation structure located downstream Tana
Lake to upstream Aswan High Dam are the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam, GERD (under construction), the Roseires Dam, and the Sennar Dam.
The proposed study is required to identify the inundated area, flood depth,
flow velocity and travel time of the flood waves in case of the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam break in Sudan and Egypt. The results from this
study will be used to help the decision makers to prepare an emergency plan
and warning systems to rescue affected dwonstram area, and to evacuate the
population on time before risk. Moreover, this study may be helping the
GERD owner in modifying the design of dam to be more safely.
Objectives of the Study:
1- Define the impact of GERD break event on other structures along the
Blue Nile River and the main Nile River,
2- Define the extent of flooding that will occur due to GERD break,
3- Design different scenarios for the GERD break,
4- Calculate flood wave propagates time along the Blue Nile River and the
Nile River in order to define the time of reaction for emergency
measures,
5- Evaluate the risk that could result in other major damage along the Blue
Nile River and the Nile River, and
6- Suggest mitigation measures in case of emergency.
Research Methodology:
1- Reviewing the literature in the filed of Dam breaks,
2- Recent site data will be collected and analyzed,

3- Suitable numerical models will be chosen and will be selected to be
implemented,
4- Simulating numerically the Blue Nile River and the main Nile between
the GERD and its reservoir to the Aswan High Dam, AHD. Including
main hydraulic structure,
5- Creating a Digital Elevation Model, DEM by using the available recent
data, maps and satellite images,
6-Scenarios for the GERD break will be designed, and
7- The expected impacts of the GERD break will be analyzed and presented
in such away to help the decision makers.
Expected Results:
1- GIS maps to delineate the inundated area along the Blue Nile River and
the Nile River reach with all releated details,
2- Water levels upstream the hydraulic structures that followed the dam
break in order to define the effect on the stability of these structures,
3- Tables and charts to show flood wave propagation time along the Blue
Nile and the main Nile in order to define the time of reaction, and
4- Emergency plan for decision maker which can be used if the GERD is
break.
Tentative Publications:
1- Inundation Hazard on Sudan and Egypt due to the GERD Break, and
2- Assessing the Risk due to the GERD Break.

Main References:
1 Assefa M. Melesse "Nile River Basin Hydrology, Climate and Water
Use" springer
2 Ayman F. Batisha "Sustainability Assessment of Grand Renaissance
Dam: Regarding Landslides in Ethiopia" International Journal of
Sustainability Volume 2, Number 1, June 2013
3 Delft Hydraulics (2009) "SOBEK manual Help" Technical Reference
Manual, Delft Hydraulics, IHE, Delft, the Netherlands
4 Fahmy S. Abdel Haleem, Helal E., El-Belasy A, Samir A. S. Ibrahim,
and Sobeih M., (2011) "Assessing the Risk of the Aswan High Dam
Breaching" Engineering Research Journal, Faculty of Engineering,
Minoufiya University, Vol. No.933, January 2011
5 Mahesh Prakash , Kai Rothauge, Paul W. Cleary "Modeling the impact
of dam failure scenarios on flood inundation using SPH" Applied
Mathematical Modeling, 25 March 2014
6 Samir A. S. Ibrahim, El-Belasy A. and Fahmy S. Abdel-Haleem
"Prediction of Breach Formation Through the Aswan High Dam and
Subsequent Flooding Downstream" Nile Basin Water Science &
Engineering Journal, Vol.4, Issue 1, 2011
7 Venkatesh Merwadea, Aaron Cooka, Julie Coonrodb " GIS techniques
for creating river terrain models for hydrodynamic modeling and flood
inundation mapping" Environmental Modeling & Software, 5 May

2008
Supervision Committee:
Name Degree Position Signature
1- Dr. Bakenaz Abdelzim Zeydan Professor Tanta University
2- Dr. Sherif Mohmmady Elsayed Associate Prof.
Hydraulics
Research Institute
3- Dr. Fahmy Salah Abdelhaleem Assistant Prof. Benha University
‫مقترح‬‫خطة‬‫بحث‬
‫للحصول‬‫علي‬‫درجة‬‫دكتوراه‬‫الفلسفة‬‫في‬‫الهندسة‬‫المدنية‬‫)هندسة‬‫الري‬‫والهيدروليكا‬ )
‫ديسمبر‬2014 ‫التاريخ‬
‫محمد‬‫إبراهيم‬‫عبدالمجيد‬‫إدريس‬ ‫أسم‬‫الطالب‬
‫هندسة‬‫الري‬‫والهيدروليكا‬ ‫القسم‬‫العلمي‬

‫هندسة‬‫مدنية‬–‫هندسة‬‫الري‬‫والهيدروليكا‬ ‫التخصص‬‫العام‬
‫الهيدروليكا‬ ‫التخصص‬‫الدقيق‬
‫مخاطر‬‫الفيضانات‬‫وإنتشار‬‫الموجات‬‫الفيضانية‬ ‫مجال‬‫البحث‬
‫ماجستير‬‫الهندسة‬‫المدنية‬–‫هندسة‬‫الري‬‫والهيدروليكا‬ ‫الدرجة‬‫العلمية‬
‫تقييم‬‫المخاطر‬‫الناجمة‬‫عن‬‫إنهيار‬‫سد‬‫النهضة‬‫اليثيوبى‬ ‫العنوان‬
‫الغاية‬‫من‬:‫البحث‬
‫دراسة‬‫مخاطر‬‫يار‬‫ي‬‫إنهي‬‫يدود‬‫ي‬‫الس‬‫يد‬‫ي‬‫تع‬‫ين‬‫ي‬‫م‬‫يم‬‫ي‬‫أه‬‫يات‬‫ي‬‫الدراس‬‫يرا‬‫ي‬‫نظ‬ ,‫ية‬‫ي‬‫الهيدروليكي‬‫يرار‬‫ي‬‫للرض‬‫ية‬‫ي‬‫الناجم‬‫ين‬‫ي‬‫ع‬
‫النهيار‬‫والتي‬‫منها‬‫خسائر‬‫بشرية‬‫ومادية‬‫وذلك‬ .‫وبيئية‬‫نظرا‬‫ية‬‫ي‬‫للكمي‬‫ية‬‫ي‬‫الهائل‬‫ين‬‫ي‬‫م‬‫ياه‬‫ي‬‫المي‬‫ية‬‫ي‬‫المندفع‬‫يد‬‫ي‬‫عن‬
‫النهيار‬‫مسببة‬‫إنهيار‬‫المنشأت‬‫يف‬‫ي‬‫خل‬‫يدود‬‫ي‬‫الس‬‫يرق‬‫ي‬‫وغ‬‫ياحات‬‫ي‬‫مس‬‫ين‬‫ي‬‫م‬‫يي‬‫ي‬‫الررض‬‫يكنية‬‫ي‬‫)س‬–‫ية‬‫ي‬‫زراعي‬–
‫صناعية‬–‫مسببة‬ (‫تجارية‬‫خسائر‬‫بلرواح‬‫وخسائر‬‫مادية‬‫يصعب‬‫حصرها‬‫ومشاكل‬‫بيئية‬.‫متعددة‬
‫ونظرا‬‫لقيام‬‫دولة‬‫إيثيوبيا‬‫بالبدء‬‫في‬‫إنشاء‬‫سد‬‫النهضة‬‫علي‬‫مجري‬‫نهر‬‫النيل‬‫الزرق‬‫فقد‬‫تم‬‫إختيار‬‫سييد‬
‫النهضة‬‫كحالة‬‫لدراسة‬‫اليثار‬‫الناجمة‬‫عن‬‫إنهيار‬‫السدود‬‫ومايترتب‬‫عليها‬‫ين‬‫ي‬‫م‬‫يائر‬‫ي‬‫خس‬‫ييحها‬‫ي‬‫وتورض‬‫يي‬‫ي‬‫ف‬
‫شكل‬‫خرائط‬‫وجداول‬‫لمساعدة‬‫متخذي‬‫القرار‬‫لعمل‬‫خطة‬‫طواريء‬‫عند‬‫حدوث‬‫يار‬‫ي‬‫النهي‬‫يل‬‫ي‬‫وتقلي‬‫يم‬‫ي‬‫حج‬
.‫الكوارث‬
‫تعريف‬:‫المشكلة‬
‫تلعب‬‫السدود‬‫دورا‬‫هاما‬‫في‬‫حياة‬‫البشرية‬‫وذلك‬‫نظرا‬‫لتنظيمها‬‫التصرفات‬‫وتخزين‬‫ياه‬‫ي‬‫المي‬‫يتخدامها‬‫ي‬‫لس‬
‫فترات‬‫الجفاف‬‫والحماية‬‫من‬‫الفيضان‬‫وتوليد‬‫ونظرا‬ .‫الطاقة‬‫لذلك‬‫فقد‬‫قامت‬‫دولة‬‫إيثيوبيا‬‫بالبدء‬‫في‬‫ياء‬‫ي‬‫بن‬
‫سد‬‫النهضة‬‫علي‬‫المجري‬‫المائي‬‫للنيل‬‫الزرق‬‫المصدر‬‫الرئيسي‬‫لمياه‬‫وتقوم‬ .‫النيل‬‫هذه‬‫الدراسة‬‫علييي‬
‫البحث‬‫في‬‫نتائج‬‫إنهيار‬‫سد‬‫النهضة‬‫علي‬‫المنشأت‬‫خلف‬‫السد‬‫مثل‬‫)سد‬،‫الروصيرص‬‫سد‬‫سنار‬‫و‬‫يد‬‫ي‬‫الس‬
‫و‬ (‫العالي‬‫المساحات‬‫المعررضة‬‫لخطر‬‫الغرق‬‫وسرعة‬‫وصول‬‫المياه‬‫للمدن‬‫والطرق‬‫والمطارات‬‫يل‬‫ي‬‫داخ‬
‫مساحة‬‫الغرق‬‫وكذلك‬‫تورضيح‬‫أعماق‬‫المياه‬‫خلل‬‫ياحة‬‫ي‬‫المس‬‫ية‬‫ي‬‫المدروس‬‫يم‬‫ي‬‫ويت‬‫ييح‬‫ي‬‫تورض‬‫يك‬‫ي‬‫تل‬‫يار‬‫ي‬‫اليث‬‫يي‬‫ي‬‫ف‬
‫شكل‬‫خرائط‬‫مساحية‬‫وجداول‬‫لمساعدة‬‫متخذي‬‫القرار‬‫في‬‫عمل‬‫خطة‬‫طواريء‬‫عند‬‫حدوث‬.‫ذلك‬
‫أهداف‬:‫الدراسة‬
1-‫تعريف‬‫الفيضان‬‫الحادث‬‫نتيجة‬‫النهيار‬،

2-‫حساب‬‫التصرفات‬‫الخارجة‬‫من‬‫بحيرة‬‫السد‬‫لحظة‬‫الهنهيار‬،
3-‫عمل‬‫مجموعة‬‫من‬‫حالت‬‫الهنهيار‬،‫ودراستها‬
4-‫دراسة‬‫سرعة‬‫إهنتقال‬‫الموجة‬‫وزمن‬،‫وصولها‬
5-‫تحليل‬‫مخاطر‬‫إهنهيار‬‫مشأت‬‫أخري‬‫علي‬‫المجري‬‫وتاثيرها‬‫علي‬‫إهنتقال‬،‫الفيضان‬
6-‫عمل‬‫خطة‬‫لتقليل‬‫المخاطر‬‫الناجمة‬‫عن‬.‫الهنهيار‬
‫إبتكارية‬‫البحث‬‫والاضافة‬:‫العلمية‬
‫يعتمد‬‫البحث‬‫علي‬‫بناء‬‫هنموذج‬‫رياضي‬‫لعملية‬‫إهنهيار‬‫سد‬‫النهضة‬‫وذللك‬‫ليضلاح‬‫التصلرفات‬‫الناجملة‬
‫عن‬‫الهنهيار‬‫وسرعة‬‫لال‬‫ل‬‫إهنتق‬،‫لة‬‫ل‬‫الموج‬‫لتخدام‬‫ل‬‫وبإس‬‫لط‬‫ل‬‫خرائ‬‫لم‬‫ل‬‫هنظ‬‫لات‬‫ل‬‫المعلوم‬‫لة‬‫ل‬‫الجغرافي‬‫لن‬‫ل‬‫يمك‬‫لاب‬‫ل‬‫حس‬
‫المساحات‬‫المعرضة‬‫للغرق‬‫وأعماق‬‫لاه‬‫ل‬‫المي‬‫لد‬‫ل‬‫عن‬‫لاط‬‫ل‬‫النق‬‫ذات‬‫لة‬‫ل‬‫الهمي‬‫لدن‬‫ل‬‫)م‬–‫لارات‬‫ل‬‫مط‬–‫لرق‬‫ل‬‫ط‬–
‫سكك‬‫وكذلك‬ (‫حديدية‬‫سرعة‬‫وصول‬‫المياه‬،‫لها‬‫لالي‬‫ل‬‫وبالت‬‫لن‬‫ل‬‫يمك‬‫لتنتاج‬‫ل‬‫إس‬‫لط‬‫ل‬‫خرائ‬‫لداول‬‫ل‬‫وج‬‫لاطق‬‫ل‬‫للمن‬
‫المعرضة‬‫للخطر‬‫وعليه‬‫يمكن‬‫عمل‬‫خطة‬‫طواريء‬‫لتقليل‬‫أثار‬.‫الهنهيار‬
‫منهجية‬:‫البحث‬
1-‫بناء‬‫هنموذج‬‫رياضي‬‫لعملية‬‫الهنهيار‬‫بإستخدام‬‫برامج‬‫الحاسب‬،‫اللي‬
2-‫هنمذجة‬‫المنطقة‬‫المحددة‬‫بسد‬‫النهضة‬‫والسد‬‫العالي‬‫بعرض‬‫مناسب‬‫موضحا‬‫عليها‬‫أماكن‬‫المنشللأت‬
‫والطرق‬‫والمطارات‬‫والسكك‬‫الحديدية‬،‫والمدن‬
3-‫لل‬‫ل‬‫عم‬‫لوذج‬‫ل‬‫هنم‬‫لي‬‫ل‬‫رقم‬‫لات‬‫ل‬‫للرتفاع‬‫لك‬‫ل‬‫وذل‬‫لة‬‫ل‬‫لمنطق‬‫لة‬‫ل‬‫الدراس‬‫لاعدة‬‫ل‬‫للمس‬‫لي‬‫ل‬‫ف‬‫لة‬‫ل‬‫دراس‬‫لرعة‬‫ل‬‫س‬‫لال‬‫ل‬‫إهنتق‬
،‫الفيضان‬
4-‫تصميم‬‫مجموعة‬‫من‬‫حالت‬‫الهنهيار‬،‫وتحليلها‬
5-‫إستنتاج‬‫خرائط‬‫وجداول‬‫للمناطق‬‫المعرضة‬،‫للخطر‬
6-‫عمل‬‫خطة‬‫طواريء‬‫لتقليل‬‫أثار‬.‫الفيضان‬
‫النتائج‬‫المتوقعة‬‫من‬:‫البحث‬
1-‫خرائط‬‫بإستخدام‬‫هنظم‬‫المعلومات‬‫لة‬‫ل‬‫الجغرافي‬‫لح‬‫ل‬‫توض‬‫لاكن‬‫ل‬‫الم‬‫لة‬‫ل‬‫المعرض‬‫لر‬‫ل‬‫لخط‬‫لرق‬‫ل‬‫الغ‬‫لرعة‬‫ل‬‫وس‬
‫وصول‬‫المياه‬‫لها‬‫وعمق‬‫المياه‬،‫عندها‬

2-‫أثار‬‫الهنهيار‬‫علي‬‫منشأت‬‫الخلف‬‫)سد‬،‫الروصيرص‬‫سد‬‫سنار‬‫و‬‫السد‬‫العالي‬،(‫بأسوان‬
3-‫خطة‬‫طواريء‬‫لمساعدة‬‫خذي‬ّ‫ذ‬ ‫مت‬‫القرار‬‫للتعامل‬‫مع‬.‫المشكلة‬
‫البحاث‬‫المتوقع‬:‫نشرها‬
1- Inundation Hazard on Sudan and Egypt due to the Renascence Dam
Failure, and
2- Assessing the Risk due to the Renascence Dam Failure.
‫مراجع‬:‫البحث‬
1 Assefa M. Melesse "Nile River Basin Hydrology, Climate and Water
Use" springer
2 Ayman F. Batisha "Sustainability Assessment of Grand Renaissance
Dam: Regarding Landslides in Ethiopia" International Journal of
Sustainability Volume 2, Number 1, June 2013
3 Delft Hydraulics (2009) "SOBEK manual Help" Technical Reference
Manual, Delft Hydraulics, IHE, Delft, the Netherlands
4 Fahmy S. Abdel Haleem, Helal E., El-Belasy A, Samir A. S. Ibrahim,
and Sobeih M., (2011) "Assessing the Risk of the Aswan High Dam
Breaching" Engineering Research Journal, Faculty of Engineering,
Minoufiya University, Vol. No.933, January 2011
5 Mahesh Prakash , Kai Rothauge, Paul W. Cleary "Modeling the impact
of dam failure scenarios on flood inundation using SPH" Applied
Mathematical Modeling, 25 March 2014
6 Samir A. S. Ibrahim, El-Belasy A. and Fahmy S. Abdel-Haleem
"Prediction of Breach Formation Through the Aswan High Dam and
Subsequent Flooding Downstream" Nile Basin Water Science &
Engineering Journal, Vol.4, Issue 1, 2011
7 Venkatesh Merwadea, Aaron Cooka, Julie Coonrodb " GIS techniques

2008
‫لجنة‬‫الرشراف‬‫علي‬:‫البحث‬
‫م‬‫السم‬‫الدرجة‬‫العلمية‬‫الوظيفة‬‫التوقيع‬
1‫باكيناز‬ .‫أ.د‬‫عبدالعظيم‬‫زيدان‬‫أستاذ‬‫جامعة‬‫طنطا‬
2‫شريف‬ .‫د‬‫محمدي‬‫السيد‬‫أستاذ‬‫مساعد‬
‫معهد‬-‫الهيدروليكا‬
‫المركز‬‫القومي‬
‫لبحوث‬‫المياه‬
3‫د‬‫فهمي‬‫صلح‬‫عبدالحليم‬‫مدرس‬‫جامعة‬‫بنها‬

2008
‫لجنة‬‫الرشراف‬‫علي‬:‫البحث‬
‫م‬‫المسم‬‫الدرجة‬‫العلمية‬‫الوظيفة‬‫التوقيع‬
1‫باكيناز‬ .‫أ.د‬‫عبدالعظيم‬‫زيدان‬‫أمستاذ‬‫جامعة‬‫طنطا‬
2‫شريف‬ .‫د‬‫محمدي‬‫السيد‬‫أمستاذ‬‫مساعد‬
‫معهد‬-‫الهيدروليكا‬
‫المركز‬‫القومي‬
‫لبحوث‬‫المياه‬
3‫د‬‫فهمي‬‫صل ح‬‫عبدالحليم‬‫مدرس‬‫جامعة‬‫بنها‬

�ݺ�ߣ

Edris submitted proposal

More Related Content

Edris submitted proposal