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crowdworx social forecasting new product failure rate ideation new product development innovation management idea creation stage gate process next berlin prognosemrkte epm enterprise 2.0 the rise of social forecasting agenturen decision support elektronische prognosemrkte crowdsourcing kollektive intelligenz prognose prognosemarkt wisdom of crowds weisheit der vielen zukunft neu produkt forecasting techniques change management hr employee relations communication organizational change employee engagement