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Retail Insight 1

Marrianne Garbutt
Marrianne Garbutt
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Lowd&Klea RRP !"#$"%&'()*+,,-.'($"'+./)0&%.(1$$$$222<4&20.-064#.<+&5 Retail Recovery Position 23'/)'/)$.)+#'&'.$4)$#"'(4%)(+,5'4%6)7#+,)6%/89:$/%6)#%/%$#(3) -.6%#"$8%.):1)*'+&,-.$")#%4$"'.&)"+)"3%)#%"$'4)/%("+#;) !"#$%&'() /$0"1.%/$2'3$45%6'7101'( Expectations for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he impact on consumers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growth rates !"#$%&'%"(&%)$(& %3*%&',-8:$,(#5'$".'$*,'#-$*.%,04/$,-$ contracted to 0.6% ?&2#;#*=$,($2&340$'##5$(".($("#$,5%.+($ &1$("#$+*#0,($+*3-+"$.-0$.$53+"$0##%#*$ %&%34.*,(/<$!",'$1.+($".'$7##-$%,+6#0$ 3%$.-0$%*&5&(#0$7/$!F$+&5%.-,#'$ QUESTION? For the last quarter *#+#'',&-$(",'$(,5#$.*&3-0$2,44$4#.0$(&$ 2,("$%*&8*.55#'$'3+"$.'$GH,*'(,#:'$ What effect has this behavioural !"#$%&"'()*(+,!*-",.!*)&/"0%1)!2(-3" ?&5#5.0#$?&5#I=$.-0$6##%$.-$#/#$ shift had on retailers both large of 2010 ,'$("#$-#2$2.(+"2&*0$1&*$("#$5.>&*,(/$ &3($1&*$("#$3%+&5,-8$J".--#4K$'#*,#'$ and small and what measures .-0$,($,'$'&5#(",-8$(".($".'$3'"#*#0$,-$ .+(3.44/$(,(4#0$GL.6#$M&$.-0$L#-0I< 0,'(,-+($4,1#'(/4#$+".-8#'$*.("#*$(".-$("#$ N1$2#$'%#-0$2#$+.--&($'.;#<$N1$2#$ have they taken to adapt? (#5%&*.*/$5#.'3*#'$&1$("#$*#+#-($%.'(<$ 7&**&2$(&$'%#-0$2#$+.--&($'.;#$1&*$
87% The impact on retailers !"#$%&"'()$'")$*+,(#%-.)#/)#0%()-"1) ,#)'+-'./$'0"1/'2.%$$.3 2"0$3%/,'$&)(0%4#5)2,#)$'"),-*"')-/) ?0");%6#,'")4/')(<$&&"')'"#$%&"'()0$() The retail sector %&&,(%/-()#0$#)#0"%')#$6#%6()1%&&)0$3")) 2""-),-(,';'%(%-.&=)2&"$>5)1%#0)2/#0) #/)60$-."7! (<$&&)2,(%-"(("()$-*)0/,("0/&*)-$<"() generates 8% of the !"##$%&'(#)'*+&$%& &%>")G//&1/'#0()6"$(%-.)#/)#'$*")/-)#0") H0I@&!2.$$2>&J@'%$&D@'&@"K$&%5.K0K$4& UK gross domestic 8% 8)'"#,'-)#/)10$#)6$-)2")(""-)$() 0$3")*/-")(/)2=)<$>%-.)60$-."()#0$#) Of UK households are product 9#'$*%#%/-$&)3$&,"(:)0$();'/*,6"*)(/<") <""#)-"1)6,(#/<"');,'60$(%-.)60/%6"(7 %-#"'"(#%-.)1%--"'()$-*)&/("'(7 G0"-)#0")HHI)(;/>")#/)J$(%<)K$#%4) making changes in the 8(*$)0$3")-/#%6"*)$)#"-*"-6=)4/')#0"%') A)/1-"')/4)LK%-"-()$-*)?0%-.(M)%-) way they shop due to 6,(#/<"'()#/)9#'$*")*/1-:)%-)$-)"44/'#)#/) N%-.()B"$#05)H%'<%-.0$<)O)#0"=) <$>")#0"%')</-"=)(#'"#60)4,'#0"'5)1%#0) 4/,-*)0%()6,(#/<"')-,<2"'()0$*) the recession '"$*=)<"$&()&/(%-.)/,#)#/).'/6"'%"()$-*) 4$&&"-)*'$<$#%6$&&=)%-)PQQR)$-*)0$*) "3"-)1%#0%-)#0$#)$'"$);'%6%"')/'.$-%6) #0'"$#"-"*)#0")2,(%-"((7)S'7)K$#%4:() 3"."#$2&"()0$3")1$-"*)%-);/;,&$'%#=7 60/("-)'"6/3"'=);&$-)0$*)2""-)$-) "A6/<<"'6")2$("*)(/&,#%/-7) !"#$%&'(&)*+,&-".&/"012$1"1-$&3.'45-2%& $-*)("1%-.)>%#()0$3")(""-)(0$';)'%("(5) LT3"'=/-")%()60$-.%-.)#/)#0") Staging a recovery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nternet sales still .$3'.2$4&3.$62"7&3.'82%&53&9:;&) 2'&9<=>?;&01&2@$&A$".&2'&B$C.5".A& 0,-#%-.)6/-(,<"'()#0$#);'%6"()$'") B'##'D01I&02%&35.-@"%$&CA&2@$&!@'3&)0.$-2& I'01I&53&2'&C''%2&3.'82%&M"%&'33'%$4&2'& $-*)#0$#)#0%()<%.0#)<$-%4"(#)%#("&4)%-) only account for %-6'"$("*)($&"()/4);'"<%,<);'/*,6#(7) ?=<=,&D02@&2'2"#&%"#$%&'(&9EF>F;>& X'/,;)%-)PQQR5)G//&1/'#0()$&(/)60/(") 6/<;"-($#%-.)4/')0%.0"')6/(#(F)1%&&)'"(,&#) around 8% of total B5.2@$./'.$,&2@$A&3#"1&2'&G5"4.53#$& $-)/-&%-")'/,#")4/')(,'3%3$&5)2,#)#0%() %-)*$<$.")#/)2/#0)2'$-*)$-*)6/<;$-=7) ?0%()>%-*)/4)3$&,")1%&&)-/#)2")#0") #0")-,<2"')/4)#0"%')(,;"'(#/'"() */"(-:#)-"6"(($'%&=)(%.-$&)#0")"-*)) "Y6&,(%3");'"("'3")/4);'"<%,<)/')Z"2&"-) UK retail sales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evenue from online 6/-(,<"'()10/)4""&)#0"%')/-&=)60/%6")%() ,78$%"$#9$'"&'$5$%:./"#1 ;+<)(#)=*$(>?+@ With online purchases still only 2'&N2."4$&4'D1O&"14&2@$&H0I@&!2.$$2&D0##& 8()$)'"(,&#5)#0")2'$-*()#0$#)1%-)/3"') purchases in May accounting for around 8% of 6/-#%-,")#/)(#',..&"7) #0")-"Y#)="$')/')(/)1%&&)2")#0/(")#0$#) 2010 was up 22% ) total uk retail sales, where else 4%()"."+#(*'5(*6$& '"A"Y$<%-")#0"%')3$&,");'/;/(%#%/-()4'/<) $)&%4"6=6&")$-*)"Y;"'%"-6");"'(;"6#%3"7) !"#$%&#'()*&#+!*#$%&# should we look for the growth ?0")$-(1"')$.$%-)&%"()%-)9#'$*%#%/-$&) 8##'%2,#"()(,60)$()[,$&%#=5)*,'$2%&%#=5) that will lead to recovery? 3$&,"(:5)-/#)+,(#)3$&,")4/')</-"=5)2,#)) 6'$4#(<$-(0%;)$-*);'/3"-$-6")6$-)*'%3") same period in 2009 $&(/)#0")"</#%/-$&)3$&,")#0$#)6/<"()) ($&"()$()&/-.)$()#0")6/-(,<"')%()(0/1-) (.'/&3$.%'1"#&(5#8#/$12>&) 2@"2&2@$A&D0##&3.'K04$&"&81"1-0"#&"14& "</#%/-$&)2$&$-6"7

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Retail Insight 1

  • 1. Lowd&Klea RRP !"#$"%&'()*+,,-.'($"'+./)0&%.(1$$$$222<4&20.-064#.<+&5 Retail Recovery Position 23'/)'/)$.)+#'&'.$4)$#"'(4%)(+,5'4%6)7#+,)6%/89:$/%6)#%/%$#(3) -.6%#"$8%.):1)*'+&,-.$")#%4$"'.&)"+)"3%)#%"$'4)/%("+#;) !"#$%&'() /$0"1.%/$2'3$45%6'7101'( Expectations for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he impact on consumers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growth rates !"#$%&'%"(&%)$(& %3*%&',-8:$,(#5'$".'$*,'#-$*.%,04/$,-$ contracted to 0.6% ?&2#;#*=$,($2&340$'##5$(".($("#$,5%.+($ &1$("#$+*#0,($+*3-+"$.-0$.$53+"$0##%#*$ %&%34.*,(/<$!",'$1.+($".'$7##-$%,+6#0$ 3%$.-0$%*&5&(#0$7/$!F$+&5%.-,#'$ QUESTION? For the last quarter *#+#'',&-$(",'$(,5#$.*&3-0$2,44$4#.0$(&$ 2,("$%*&8*.55#'$'3+"$.'$GH,*'(,#:'$ What effect has this behavioural !"#$%&"'()*(+,!*-",.!*)&/"0%1)!2(-3" ?&5#5.0#$?&5#I=$.-0$6##%$.-$#/#$ shift had on retailers both large of 2010 ,'$("#$-#2$2.(+"2&*0$1&*$("#$5.>&*,(/$ &3($1&*$("#$3%+&5,-8$J".--#4K$'#*,#'$ and small and what measures .-0$,($,'$'&5#(",-8$(".($".'$3'"#*#0$,-$ .+(3.44/$(,(4#0$GL.6#$M&$.-0$L#-0I< 0,'(,-+($4,1#'(/4#$+".-8#'$*.("#*$(".-$("#$ N1$2#$'%#-0$2#$+.--&($'.;#<$N1$2#$ have they taken to adapt? (#5%&*.*/$5#.'3*#'$&1$("#$*#+#-($%.'(<$ 7&**&2$(&$'%#-0$2#$+.--&($'.;#$1&*$
  • 2. 87% The impact on retailers !"#$%&"'()$'")$*+,(#%-.)#/)#0%()-"1) ,#)'+-'./$'0"1/'2.%$$.3 2"0$3%/,'$&)(0%4#5)2,#)$'"),-*"')-/) ?0");%6#,'")4/')(<$&&"')'"#$%&"'()0$() The retail sector %&&,(%/-()#0$#)#0"%')#$6#%6()1%&&)0$3")) 2""-),-(,';'%(%-.&=)2&"$>5)1%#0)2/#0) #/)60$-."7! (<$&&)2,(%-"(("()$-*)0/,("0/&*)-$<"() generates 8% of the !"##$%&'(#)'*+&$%& &%>")G//&1/'#0()6"$(%-.)#/)#'$*")/-)#0") H0I@&!2.$$2>&J@'%$&D@'&@"K$&%5.K0K$4& UK gross domestic 8% 8)'"#,'-)#/)10$#)6$-)2")(""-)$() 0$3")*/-")(/)2=)<$>%-.)60$-."()#0$#) Of UK households are product 9#'$*%#%/-$&)3$&,"(:)0$();'/*,6"*)(/<") <""#)-"1)6,(#/<"');,'60$(%-.)60/%6"(7 %-#"'"(#%-.)1%--"'()$-*)&/("'(7 G0"-)#0")HHI)(;/>")#/)J$(%<)K$#%4) making changes in the 8(*$)0$3")-/#%6"*)$)#"-*"-6=)4/')#0"%') A)/1-"')/4)LK%-"-()$-*)?0%-.(M)%-) way they shop due to 6,(#/<"'()#/)9#'$*")*/1-:)%-)$-)"44/'#)#/) N%-.()B"$#05)H%'<%-.0$<)O)#0"=) <$>")#0"%')</-"=)(#'"#60)4,'#0"'5)1%#0) 4/,-*)0%()6,(#/<"')-,<2"'()0$*) the recession '"$*=)<"$&()&/(%-.)/,#)#/).'/6"'%"()$-*) 4$&&"-)*'$<$#%6$&&=)%-)PQQR)$-*)0$*) "3"-)1%#0%-)#0$#)$'"$);'%6%"')/'.$-%6) #0'"$#"-"*)#0")2,(%-"((7)S'7)K$#%4:() 3"."#$2&"()0$3")1$-"*)%-);/;,&$'%#=7 60/("-)'"6/3"'=);&$-)0$*)2""-)$-) "A6/<<"'6")2$("*)(/&,#%/-7) !"#$%&'(&)*+,&-".&/"012$1"1-$&3.'45-2%& $-*)("1%-.)>%#()0$3")(""-)(0$';)'%("(5) LT3"'=/-")%()60$-.%-.)#/)#0") Staging a recovery $()0$3")#0")($&"()/4)?,;;"'1$'")4/') %-#"'-"#)O)DQ)#/)UQV)/4)<=)'"3"-,") 6/-#$%-%-.)1/'>"'();$6>"*)&,-60"(7 %()6/<%-.)4'/<)#0")%-#"'-"#W<$=2") 4/').//*7)S$=2")@)1%&&)</3")/-#/) S$%-(#'"$<)2'$-*)/1-"'()-""*)#/)2") ?0%()%()/-")'"$(/-)10=)S%-#"&)6/-(,<"') @-)>"";%-.)1%#0)#0%()90/<"A<$*":)#'"-*5) $'#()$-*)6'$4#()'"#$%&"')B/22=6'$4#)0$3") #0")%-#"'-"#5)6&/(")#0")(0/;)*/1-) $-*)#,'-)%#)%-#/)$)2%.)(#/6>'//<M 6$'"4,&)1%#0)#0"%');'%6%-.7)8-=);"'6";#%/-) /-)#0");$'#)/4);'%6")("-(%#%3"5)2$'.$%-) .$%$".-@&@"%&@0I@#0I@2$4&2@"2&"(P5$12& $*,&#()1%&&)2")&"$*%-.)#0")'"6/3"'=) Internet sales still .$3'.2$4&3.$62"7&3.'82%&53&9:;&) 2'&9<=>?;&01&2@$&A$".&2'&B$C.5".A& 0,-#%-.)6/-(,<"'()#0$#);'%6"()$'") B'##'D01I&02%&35.-@"%$&CA&2@$&!@'3&)0.$-2& I'01I&53&2'&C''%2&3.'82%&M"%&'33'%$4&2'& $-*)#0$#)#0%()<%.0#)<$-%4"(#)%#("&4)%-) only account for %-6'"$("*)($&"()/4);'"<%,<);'/*,6#(7) ?=<=,&D02@&2'2"#&%"#$%&'(&9EF>F;>& X'/,;)%-)PQQR5)G//&1/'#0()$&(/)60/(") 6/<;"-($#%-.)4/')0%.0"')6/(#(F)1%&&)'"(,&#) around 8% of total B5.2@$./'.$,&2@$A&3#"1&2'&G5"4.53#$& $-)/-&%-")'/,#")4/')(,'3%3$&5)2,#)#0%() %-)*$<$.")#/)2/#0)2'$-*)$-*)6/<;$-=7) ?0%()>%-*)/4)3$&,")1%&&)-/#)2")#0") #0")-,<2"')/4)#0"%')(,;"'(#/'"() */"(-:#)-"6"(($'%&=)(%.-$&)#0")"-*)) "Y6&,(%3");'"("'3")/4);'"<%,<)/')Z"2&"-) UK retail sales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evenue from online 6/-(,<"'()10/)4""&)#0"%')/-&=)60/%6")%() ,78$%"$#9$'"&'$5$%:./"#1 ;+<)(#)=*$(>?+@ With online purchases still only 2'&N2."4$&4'D1O&"14&2@$&H0I@&!2.$$2&D0##& 8()$)'"(,&#5)#0")2'$-*()#0$#)1%-)/3"') purchases in May accounting for around 8% of 6/-#%-,")#/)(#',..&"7) #0")-"Y#)="$')/')(/)1%&&)2")#0/(")#0$#) 2010 was up 22% ) total uk retail sales, where else 4%()"."+#(*'5(*6$& '"A"Y$<%-")#0"%')3$&,");'/;/(%#%/-()4'/<) $)&%4"6=6&")$-*)"Y;"'%"-6");"'(;"6#%3"7) !"#$%&#'()*&#+!*#$%&# should we look for the growth ?0")$-(1"')$.$%-)&%"()%-)9#'$*%#%/-$&) 8##'%2,#"()(,60)$()[,$&%#=5)*,'$2%&%#=5) that will lead to recovery? 3$&,"(:5)-/#)+,(#)3$&,")4/')</-"=5)2,#)) 6'$4#(<$-(0%;)$-*);'/3"-$-6")6$-)*'%3") same period in 2009 $&(/)#0")"</#%/-$&)3$&,")#0$#)6/<"()) ($&"()$()&/-.)$()#0")6/-(,<"')%()(0/1-) (.'/&3$.%'1"#&(5#8#/$12>&) 2@"2&2@$A&D0##&3.'K04$&"&81"1-0"#&"14& "</#%/-$&)2$&$-6"7