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Intelligence Hs

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Shahzada Sultan
Shahzada Sultan

The document provides an overview of the intelligence cycle which involves planning, collection, evaluation, collation, analysis, dissemination, and feedback/re-evaluation. It describes each stage in 2-3 sentences and emphasizes that the cycle is continuous and cyclical in nature with the goal of gathering strategic, operational and tactical intelligence to both prevent and solve crimes.

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Gathering and Using Intelligence in Terrorism Investigations 05 June 2006 Presentation by Harjit SANDHU
05 June 2006 “ If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles.” “ If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory you will suffer a defeat.” “ If you know neither yourself nor the enemy, you are a fool and will meet defeat in every battle. ” - Sun Tzu, 500 BC The Art of War (Sunzi bingfa)
“ What enables an intelligent government and a wise leadership to overcome others and achieve extraordinary accomplishments is… foreknowledge Foreknowledge can not be gotten from ghosts and spirits, can not be had by analogy, can not be found out by calculation. It must be obtained from people, people who know the conditions of enemy.”
Technology can not substitute humans. 05 June 2006
is information that has had value added . Intelligence “ Intelligence” has many definitions in the filed of investigations. “ Information” is often referred to as intelligence. However, in the simplest of terms “Intelligence” is information that has had some value added, that explains what that information may mean.
Overview of Intelligence Cycle Intelligence is not static but a dynamic concept. To be useful, it is essential to put in place a proper mechanism for management of intelligence. To understand the true potential of intelligence, one must understand the intelligence cycle. Intelligence Cycle: helps organize one’s information Identifies gaps in one’s analysis 05 June 2006
Intelligence Cycle Cyclical in nature Always reviewing after each stage Used in everyday life Never ends 05 June 2006
Processing (evaluation & Collation) Analysis Dissemination Planning Collection INTELLIGENCE CYCLE
Stages of the Intelligence Cycle Planning Collection Evaluation Collation Analysis Dissemination Feedback 05 June 2006
The Intelligence Cycle 05 June 2006 EVALUATION COLLECTION COLLATION ANALYSIS DISSEMINATION RE-EVALUATION PLANNING
Planning The Plan Informal Formal Types of Tasking Self initiated Policy related National Level Case Specific 05 June 2006
Planning Identify the questions that need to be answered Who? What? When? Where? Why? How? 05 June 2006
The Intelligence Cycle The directed, focussed gathering of information through overt and covert means from all possible sources including law enforcement and non-law enforcement agencies and individuals COLLECTION
Sources of Information collection Confidential Informants Undercover Operation Previous Investigations Information Storage and Retrieval Systems Personal Surveillance Technical Surveillance Interchange Open Sources Interviews Interrogation Debriefing use of legal instruments (such as search warrants and subpoenas) to obtain information from protected sources or uncooperative subjects 05 June 2006
The Intelligence Cycle Grading the worth of the source and the substance of the information. Transmitting an assessment of the worth of a piece of information to all its subsequent readers. EVALUATION COLLECTION
EVALUATION The Admiralty System Grade Definition = Completely Reliable = Usually Reliable = Fairly Reliable = Not Usually Reliable = Unreliable = Cannot be Assessed SOURCE RELIABILITY Scale
Grade Definition = Confirmed = Probably True = Possibly True = Doubtfully True = Improbable = Cannot be Assessed INFORMATION VALIDITY Scale EVALUATION The Admiralty System
A1 = Completely reliable (source and the information is confirmed) F3 = Source cannot be assessed but the information is possibly true EVALUATION The Admiralty System
Three point classification UNMIK uses the 3 rd digit also, such as A/1/5. Handling Code 1: May be disseminated to non EU law enforcement agencies where no adequate safeguards exist (permission from HOU /HOI before dissemination ) Handling Code 2: May be disseminated to non-prosecuting organisations operating within Kosovo (permission from Desk Office before dissemination) Handling Code 3: May be disseminated to other law enforcement and prosecuting agencies, where adequate safeguards for the rights of individuals exist, including law enforcement within the EU / USA (permission from Desk Office before dissemination) Handling Code 4: Only disseminate within originating agency / force. Specify internal recipient (s) Handling Code 5: No further dissemination. Refer to the originator. 05 June 2006
Factors affecting Evaluation “ What people perceive , and how they process the information are influenced by multiple factors. These factors or influences include: past experience, education, “ cultural values” role requirements, organizational norms information received.” (Heuer)
Some Evaluation Pitfalls Single source evaluation Perception and Analyst Bias View of the facts Mind-set Prejudice Lack of knowledge Cognitive Dissonance
Evaluation “ An authoritative evaluation of sources will ameliorate inconsistency, lack of clarity, substantive bias, and poorly supported judgment.” -Richards Heuer, Jr in “Psychology of Intelligence Analysis” 05 June 2006
Evaluation Summary Look beyond what is in front of you? Think out of the box Just because it is in print, does not mean it is true? Can be trial and error – use your experiences and that of others around you. 05 June 2006
The Intelligence Cycle The storage, integration and retrieval of information produced by the collection phase (after irrelevant and incorrect information has been removed). Must be properly indexed, cross referenced and readily accessible to enable rapid and efficient use. COLLATION COLLECTION EVALUATION
Collation involves … Filtering out non-relevant information Orderly arrangement of remaining information Brings into focus relationships Highlights information gaps 05 June 2006
Methods of Collation Must identify the best tool for the assignment Electronic Methods Databases – Excel – Access Data mining /Data Warehousing Manual Methods – Organization of paper files Creating index system 05 June 2006
The Intelligence Cycle The heart of the Intelligence Process and the most critical component in the Intelligence Process. The assembly of “bits and pieces” of information so as to establish pattern or meaning. The development of hypotheses based on the pattern(s) revealed. Time to utilise the Analysis tools & techniques . ANALYSIS COLLECTION EVALUATION COLLATION
Analysis . 05 June 2006 Analysis is the interpretation of the collected information or intelligence Analysis looks beyond the facts as gathered - it determines what the facts mean We compare, contrast, and review data, looking for what is there and also what is missing…
Types of Analysis Tactical Analysis Strategic Analysis Case Analysis Link Analysis Pattern Analysis Movement Analysis Telephone calls Analysis 05 June 2006
Types of Analysis- contd. Content Analysis Activity-flow Analysis Association Analysis Record Analysis Descriptive Analysis Geographic Distribution Analysis 05 June 2006
Types of Analysis- contd. Indicator Analysis Net-worth Analysis Statistical Analysis Warnings/ Vulnerability and Threat Analysis Visual Investigative Analysis 05 June 2006
The Intelligence Cycle The LOOP back from Analysis to Collection is made whenever we discover we are unable to make a proper analysis due to lack of, or inaccurate, information. Clarify the facts by repeating the Intelligence Cycle . ANALYSIS COLLECTION EVALUATION COLLATION
The Intelligence Cycle The distribution of the results and products of the Intelligence Process. Need to know basis. Operational - Short Term Strategic - Long Term DISSEMINATION ANALYSIS COLLECTION EVALUATION COLLATION
Going through the four previous intelligence processes of collection , evaluation , collation , and analysis are of little use unless the information/intelligence/product is made available to the right people. It is also important that the availability of the intelligence is timely. That is to say that it is disseminated: in time for the target audience to act on it in the appropriate manner 05 June 2006
05 June 2006
Intelligence, unlike French Wine, does not get better with age. Good timely intelligence is absolutely a must for any successful operation. 05 June 2006
Dissemination includes.. Written reports Oral presentations and briefings etc. 05 June 2006
Oral Briefings 05 June 2006 Time Saving Direct Contact Current and up to-date
Oral Briefings -The risk 05 June 2006 Be Prepared Don’t get caught with your pants down !!
The Intelligence Cycle Considering the process, product and its use to identify what can be improved: Effectiveness of Reporting Results of Analysis Staff Deployment Determine Priority RE-EVALUATION DISSEMINATION ANALYSIS COLLECTION EVALUATION COLLATION
Feed Back is very important “ I have never thought of myself as a good writer. Anyone who wants reassurance of that should read one of my first drafts. But I’m one of the world’s great re-writers.” James A. Mischener 05 June 2006
Feed Back comes from several sources The review process The intended customer If further disseminated, outsiders 05 June 2006
Re-evaluation- closing the loop Was the report relevant and reliable? If recommendations were made in the report, these need to be tracked? Remember – the cycle is cyclical – and we will always be re-visiting the stages. In other words – An Intelligence analyst’s work is never finished… 05 June 2006
Intelligence has.. Two objectives: Proactive: to prevent commission of crime Reactive: to help solve a crime that has already taken place (use in investigation). 05 June 2006
Intelligence types Strategic - for knowing capabilities and vulnerabilities of target entities (long –term) Operational - for planning and conducting specific operations Tactical - for planning local tactical activities 05 June 2006
Counter-Intelligence The crooks too adopt measures similar to the one we use and employ informers to collect intelligence about the activities of the enforcement machinery It is therefore necessary that planning process takes into account this factor and put in place counter-intelligence machinery 05 June 2006
Counter-Intelligence The purpose of Counter-intelligence is: To impede and neutralize hostile intelligence operations; To protect classified intelligence Three factors need to be kept in mind: Recruitment Corruption Counter-counter Intelligence 05 June 2006
Sun Tzu’s 5 types of secret agents Local agent- from among people of locality Inside agent- hired from among disaffected officials Reverse agent / renegade/double agent- hired from among the terrorist agents Dead agent- transmits false information to terrorists Living agent- comes back to report 05 June 2006
This presentation was made on 05 June 2006 at Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago as part of the Commonwealth Project on Capacity Building in Combating Terrorism
Harjit Sandhu E-mail: [email_address] [email_address] Telephone: +31-70-512-5732 +31-652 632 570

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Intelligence Hs

  • 1. Gathering and Using Intelligence in Terrorism Investigations 05 June 2006 Presentation by Harjit SANDHU
  • 2. 05 June 2006 “ If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles.” “ If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory you will suffer a defeat.” “ If you know neither yourself nor the enemy, you are a fool and will meet defeat in every battle. ” - Sun Tzu, 500 BC The Art of War (Sunzi bingfa)
  • 3. “ What enables an intelligent government and a wise leadership to overcome others and achieve extraordinary accomplishments is… foreknowledge Foreknowledge can not be gotten from ghosts and spirits, can not be had by analogy, can not be found out by calculation. It must be obtained from people, people who know the conditions of enemy.”
  • 4. Technology can not substitute humans. 05 June 2006
  • 5. is information that has had value added . Intelligence “ Intelligence” has many definitions in the filed of investigations. “ Information” is often referred to as intelligence. However, in the simplest of terms “Intelligence” is information that has had some value added, that explains what that information may mean.
  • 6. Overview of Intelligence Cycle Intelligence is not static but a dynamic concept. To be useful, it is essential to put in place a proper mechanism for management of intelligence. To understand the true potential of intelligence, one must understand the intelligence cycle. Intelligence Cycle: helps organize one’s information Identifies gaps in one’s analysis 05 June 2006
  • 7. Intelligence Cycle Cyclical in nature Always reviewing after each stage Used in everyday life Never ends 05 June 2006
  • 8. Processing (evaluation & Collation) Analysis Dissemination Planning Collection INTELLIGENCE CYCLE
  • 9. Stages of the Intelligence Cycle Planning Collection Evaluation Collation Analysis Dissemination Feedback 05 June 2006
  • 10. The Intelligence Cycle 05 June 2006 EVALUATION COLLECTION COLLATION ANALYSIS DISSEMINATION RE-EVALUATION PLANNING
  • 11. Planning The Plan Informal Formal Types of Tasking Self initiated Policy related National Level Case Specific 05 June 2006
  • 12. Planning Identify the questions that need to be answered Who? What? When? Where? Why? How? 05 June 2006
  • 13. The Intelligence Cycle The directed, focussed gathering of information through overt and covert means from all possible sources including law enforcement and non-law enforcement agencies and individuals COLLECTION
  • 14. Sources of Information collection Confidential Informants Undercover Operation Previous Investigations Information Storage and Retrieval Systems Personal Surveillance Technical Surveillance Interchange Open Sources Interviews Interrogation Debriefing use of legal instruments (such as search warrants and subpoenas) to obtain information from protected sources or uncooperative subjects 05 June 2006
  • 15. The Intelligence Cycle Grading the worth of the source and the substance of the information. Transmitting an assessment of the worth of a piece of information to all its subsequent readers. EVALUATION COLLECTION
  • 16. EVALUATION The Admiralty System Grade Definition = Completely Reliable = Usually Reliable = Fairly Reliable = Not Usually Reliable = Unreliable = Cannot be Assessed SOURCE RELIABILITY Scale
  • 17. Grade Definition = Confirmed = Probably True = Possibly True = Doubtfully True = Improbable = Cannot be Assessed INFORMATION VALIDITY Scale EVALUATION The Admiralty System
  • 18. A1 = Completely reliable (source and the information is confirmed) F3 = Source cannot be assessed but the information is possibly true EVALUATION The Admiralty System
  • 19. Three point classification UNMIK uses the 3 rd digit also, such as A/1/5. Handling Code 1: May be disseminated to non EU law enforcement agencies where no adequate safeguards exist (permission from HOU /HOI before dissemination ) Handling Code 2: May be disseminated to non-prosecuting organisations operating within Kosovo (permission from Desk Office before dissemination) Handling Code 3: May be disseminated to other law enforcement and prosecuting agencies, where adequate safeguards for the rights of individuals exist, including law enforcement within the EU / USA (permission from Desk Office before dissemination) Handling Code 4: Only disseminate within originating agency / force. Specify internal recipient (s) Handling Code 5: No further dissemination. Refer to the originator. 05 June 2006
  • 20. Factors affecting Evaluation “ What people perceive , and how they process the information are influenced by multiple factors. These factors or influences include: past experience, education, “ cultural values” role requirements, organizational norms information received.” (Heuer)
  • 21. Some Evaluation Pitfalls Single source evaluation Perception and Analyst Bias View of the facts Mind-set Prejudice Lack of knowledge Cognitive Dissonance
  • 22. Evaluation “ An authoritative evaluation of sources will ameliorate inconsistency, lack of clarity, substantive bias, and poorly supported judgment.” -Richards Heuer, Jr in “Psychology of Intelligence Analysis” 05 June 2006
  • 23. Evaluation Summary Look beyond what is in front of you? Think out of the box Just because it is in print, does not mean it is true? Can be trial and error – use your experiences and that of others around you. 05 June 2006
  • 24. The Intelligence Cycle The storage, integration and retrieval of information produced by the collection phase (after irrelevant and incorrect information has been removed). Must be properly indexed, cross referenced and readily accessible to enable rapid and efficient use. COLLATION COLLECTION EVALUATION
  • 25. Collation involves … Filtering out non-relevant information Orderly arrangement of remaining information Brings into focus relationships Highlights information gaps 05 June 2006
  • 26. Methods of Collation Must identify the best tool for the assignment Electronic Methods Databases – Excel – Access Data mining /Data Warehousing Manual Methods – Organization of paper files Creating index system 05 June 2006
  • 27. The Intelligence Cycle The heart of the Intelligence Process and the most critical component in the Intelligence Process. The assembly of “bits and pieces” of information so as to establish pattern or meaning. The development of hypotheses based on the pattern(s) revealed. Time to utilise the Analysis tools & techniques . ANALYSIS COLLECTION EVALUATION COLLATION
  • 28. Analysis . 05 June 2006 Analysis is the interpretation of the collected information or intelligence Analysis looks beyond the facts as gathered - it determines what the facts mean We compare, contrast, and review data, looking for what is there and also what is missing…
  • 29. Types of Analysis Tactical Analysis Strategic Analysis Case Analysis Link Analysis Pattern Analysis Movement Analysis Telephone calls Analysis 05 June 2006
  • 30. Types of Analysis- contd. Content Analysis Activity-flow Analysis Association Analysis Record Analysis Descriptive Analysis Geographic Distribution Analysis 05 June 2006
  • 31. Types of Analysis- contd. Indicator Analysis Net-worth Analysis Statistical Analysis Warnings/ Vulnerability and Threat Analysis Visual Investigative Analysis 05 June 2006
  • 32. The Intelligence Cycle The LOOP back from Analysis to Collection is made whenever we discover we are unable to make a proper analysis due to lack of, or inaccurate, information. Clarify the facts by repeating the Intelligence Cycle . ANALYSIS COLLECTION EVALUATION COLLATION
  • 33. The Intelligence Cycle The distribution of the results and products of the Intelligence Process. Need to know basis. Operational - Short Term Strategic - Long Term DISSEMINATION ANALYSIS COLLECTION EVALUATION COLLATION
  • 34. Going through the four previous intelligence processes of collection , evaluation , collation , and analysis are of little use unless the information/intelligence/product is made available to the right people. It is also important that the availability of the intelligence is timely. That is to say that it is disseminated: in time for the target audience to act on it in the appropriate manner 05 June 2006
  • 36. Intelligence, unlike French Wine, does not get better with age. Good timely intelligence is absolutely a must for any successful operation. 05 June 2006
  • 37. Dissemination includes.. Written reports Oral presentations and briefings etc. 05 June 2006
  • 38. Oral Briefings 05 June 2006 Time Saving Direct Contact Current and up to-date
  • 39. Oral Briefings -The risk 05 June 2006 Be Prepared Don’t get caught with your pants down !!
  • 40. The Intelligence Cycle Considering the process, product and its use to identify what can be improved: Effectiveness of Reporting Results of Analysis Staff Deployment Determine Priority RE-EVALUATION DISSEMINATION ANALYSIS COLLECTION EVALUATION COLLATION
  • 41. Feed Back is very important “ I have never thought of myself as a good writer. Anyone who wants reassurance of that should read one of my first drafts. But I’m one of the world’s great re-writers.” James A. Mischener 05 June 2006
  • 42. Feed Back comes from several sources The review process The intended customer If further disseminated, outsiders 05 June 2006
  • 43. Re-evaluation- closing the loop Was the report relevant and reliable? If recommendations were made in the report, these need to be tracked? Remember – the cycle is cyclical – and we will always be re-visiting the stages. In other words – An Intelligence analyst’s work is never finished… 05 June 2006
  • 44. Intelligence has.. Two objectives: Proactive: to prevent commission of crime Reactive: to help solve a crime that has already taken place (use in investigation). 05 June 2006
  • 45. Intelligence types Strategic - for knowing capabilities and vulnerabilities of target entities (long –term) Operational - for planning and conducting specific operations Tactical - for planning local tactical activities 05 June 2006
  • 46. Counter-Intelligence The crooks too adopt measures similar to the one we use and employ informers to collect intelligence about the activities of the enforcement machinery It is therefore necessary that planning process takes into account this factor and put in place counter-intelligence machinery 05 June 2006
  • 47. Counter-Intelligence The purpose of Counter-intelligence is: To impede and neutralize hostile intelligence operations; To protect classified intelligence Three factors need to be kept in mind: Recruitment Corruption Counter-counter Intelligence 05 June 2006
  • 48. Sun Tzu’s 5 types of secret agents Local agent- from among people of locality Inside agent- hired from among disaffected officials Reverse agent / renegade/double agent- hired from among the terrorist agents Dead agent- transmits false information to terrorists Living agent- comes back to report 05 June 2006
  • 49. This presentation was made on 05 June 2006 at Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago as part of the Commonwealth Project on Capacity Building in Combating Terrorism
  • 50. Harjit Sandhu E-mail: [email_address] [email_address] Telephone: +31-70-512-5732 +31-652 632 570