China¡¯s Maritime Capabilities - Captain (Retd) James Fanell
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Presentation delivered by Captain (Retd) James Fanell, Government Fellow, Geneva Centre for Security Policy at the RUSI International Sea Powers Conference 2017 - A European Net Assessment of the PLA(N). 23 February 2017
China¡¯s Maritime Capabilities - Captain (Retd) James Fanell
- 1. The ¡°China Dream¡± & China¡¯s Shipbuilding Industry The Case for a 500 Ship Navy James Fanell Captain, U.S. Navy (Retired) Government Fellow Geneva Centre for Security Policy 23 February 2017
- 3. 3 We must¡continue to work hard to actualize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.¡± ¨C PRC President Xi Jinping, March 2013 ¡°Resolutely safeguard China¡¯s maritime rights and interests, and build China into a maritime power¡± ¡± ¨C PRC President Xi, Nov 2012 PRC President Xi Jinping ¨C Chairman of Central Maritime Rights Protection Leading Small Group (ÖÐÑ뺣ÑóȨÒ湤×÷Á쵼С×é), PRC Path to Rejuvenation¡ Maritime Supremacy
- 4. PLAN NOB in 2000: 66x SSBN/SSN/SS 0x CV 58x DDG/DD/FF 0x Corvettes 60x Amphibs 100x Missiile PCs Source: USCC Aug. 2013 2000 Advanced Attack Submarines Advanced Fighter/ Strike Aircraft Short Range Ballistic Missiles Advanced ASCM Capable Surface Combatants (DDG/DD/FF) = 25 Fighters = 2000 = 3 Submarines = 5 Surface Vessels 1.6 per year DDG/DD/FFs (2000-2004) = 25 Ballistic Missiles - Source: CRS 2014 =
- 5. 2015 Advanced Fighter/ Strike Aircraft Short Range Ballistic Missiles Advanced Attack Submarines Advanced ASCM Capable Surface Combatants (DDG/DD/FF) * 2014 & 2105 Budget Increased >10%/year = 25 Fighters = 2000 = = 3 Submarines = 2015 = 5 Surface Vessels 4.2 per year DDG/DD/FFs (2010-2014) = 25 Ballistic Missiles - Source: CRS 2014 = 1 Aircraft Carrier Aircraft Carrier PLAN NOB in 2015: 75x SSBN/SSN/SS 1x CV 88x DDG/DD/FFG 25x Corvettes 55x Amphibs 85x Missiile PCs Source: USCC Aug. 2013
- 6. 2000 - 2015 The ¡°Molting¡±of the PLAN 2015 - 2030 PLAN ¡°Metamorphosis¡±
- 7. Naval Shipbuilding Trends Supporting Expansion ? Capacity Trends ? Shift from modernization to expansion ? Growth in export market ? CCG & commercial shipbuilding capacity ? Capability Trends ? Increased preference for and quality of indigenous ship design ? More technologically advanced and efficient shipbuilding
- 8. China¡¯s Ocean Consciousness ? Future Operational Requirements ¨CNear Seas Active Defense ¨CFar Seas Operations ¨CGood Will Deployment ¨CSurge Operations /Amphibious ¨CMaritime Silk Road ¨CCarries Strike Groups ¨CSLBM Patrols
- 9. 2030 PLAN NOB in 2030: 99x SSBN/SSN/SS 4x CV 102x DDG/DD/FFG 26x Corvettes 73x Amphibs 111x Missiile PCs Relative Combat Power & Presence 1999 2005 20152010 2020
- 10. How to Build a 500-ship Navy ¡according to John Lehman, former U.S. Secretary of the Navy ¨C Articulate a Compelling Strategy ¨C Slash Bureaucratic Bloat ¨C Demand Line Management Accountability Infusion ¨C Increase Competition within Shipbuilding Industry
- 11. Achieve National Rejuvenation Rise to World Stage Economic Reform & Opening Up 2040 1949 1978 1989 2008 2020 2030 Tiananmen Massacre 20 yrs 20 yrs Decade of Concern Period of Calm We cannot wait forever for a political solution to Taiwan. ¨C PRC President Xi Jinping, October 2013, at APEC Forum Decade of Concern 11
- 12. Questions / Discussion Contact: j.fanell@gcsp.ch