Oecd trust governance v3
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This document summarizes a presentation about measuring trust in government using data from the Gallup World Poll. It discusses different dimensions of trust and their correlates. It analyzes relationships between trust in government and factors like perceptions of leadership, corruption, economic conditions, and cultural values. Regional differences in governance quality, trust, and well-being are also examined. Elections are discussed as potential "validators" of trust that are imperfect.
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Oecd trust governance v3
- 1. Measuring trust in government using the Gallup World Poll Robert Manchin Gallup 47th Session of the Public Governance Committee 25th April, 2013 OECD Paris Dimensions of trust
- 2. Correlates of trust Gallup World Poll, using national representative samples from 150 countries polled in 2012. Individual countries are represented in rows personalfreedom livingstandard wellbeing supportnetwork trustinothers trustinmedia trustinelections trustinjudiciary trustininstitutions trustinpolice trustinmilitary trustinfinancialinst. fightcorruption trustingovernment leadershipapproval stdlivingbetter economybetter
- 3. How elements of trust are related? trustingovernment approvecountryleadership satwithgovfightingcorruption standardoflivingbetter economicconditionsbetter trustinfinancialinstitutions trustinmilitary trustinpolice generaltrustingattitude trustinthejudiciary trustinelections trustinthemedia peoplecanbetrusted cancountonothersifneeded well-being standardofliving Satisfiedwithpersonalfreedom
- 5. Trust by the financial markets vs. trust in financial institutions Trust in financial institutions, based on Gallup World Poll results vs. Credit Default Probability score (sovereign debt) by CMA Datavision OECD countries, Log scale
- 6. Let us look at two possible approaches: Institutional approach Trust is driven by perceptions of actual performance of government Variables (individual perceptions): Leaders job performance Level of corruption in government Governments fight against corruption Economy getting better in the country EQI a regional "Quality of Governance" index (NUTS level/aggregate) Cultural approach Cultural values and beliefs drive perceptions about institutions Variables used to measure: Generalised trust (people can be trusted) trust ( in various governmental and public bodies Subjective well-being (material and overall life evaluation) Freedom to choose what to do with your life
- 7. Quality of governance drives trust in national government? Yes, but Gallup World Poll results, and Quality of Government Index, NUTS regions: BE, DE, IT, UK http://www.qog.pol.gu.se/ .51 Belgium Brussels Belgium Vlaams - Gewest Belgium Wallonie
- 8. Quality of governance, regional differences
- 9. Culture of trust? Regional variations Gallup World Poll results, EU27 NUTS regions .30 Belgium Brussels Belgium Vlaams - Gewest Belgium Wallonie
- 10. Trust in others, regional differences
- 11. .71 Gallup World Poll results, EU27 NUTS regions Trust and civic involvement strongly related
- 12. .39Gallup World Poll results, EU27 NUTS regions Wellbeing and trust in government
- 13. Performance is a strong predictor of trust overall. But culture of trust plays a great role in the "grey zone" of mediocre government performance. Bottom performing 20% Top performing 20%Mid 60%
- 14. Politics are local? Satisfaction with local leadership clearly correlates with trust in government
- 15. Local objective outcome counts http://www.qog.pol.gu.se/ .28 .58 Regional EQI versus approval of local leadership Regional EQI versus trust in national government
- 16. Decline of trust or the tendency of even good political systems to degenerate ? 53% 67% 41% 28%
- 17. Trustinnationalgovernment There are a few exceptions
- 18. Government domains Various branches produce different levels of trust, each correlated with overall trust in government Performances are related and patterns vary widely, despite overall rank order similarities
- 19. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% National government Judicial system Local PoliceEducation Healthcare Canada Greece Mexico Sweden .24 .68 .27.30 Correlations with trust in government:
- 20. Range and average trust in various institutions MAX MEAN MIN GOV EU27, Confidence in: government, judiciary, (media), elections, (financial institutions), military, police
- 21. MAX MEAN MIN GOV National governments tend to be bottom performers Range and average trust in various national institutions, compared with the national government Confidence in: government, judiciary, (media), elections, (financial institutions), military, police
- 23. The ultimate in citizen disengagement: trust and migration % who would not move the country versus trust in government regional data Gallup World Poll GOVTTRUST WOULD NOT MOVE EVEN IF HAD THE OPPORTUNITY LOCAL LEADERSHIP (GREEN GOOD, PURPLE BAD)
- 25. General elections re-electing governments (31) Trustinnationalgovernment
- 26. General elections changing governments (31) Trustinnationalgovernment
- 27. General elections re-electing governments (31) General elections changing governments (31) Trustinnationalgovernment
- 28. General elections re-electing governments (31) General elections changing governments (31) Trustinnationalgovernment MANAGEMENT OF TRUST: ACCUMULATED TRUST AS A LEEWAY FOR THE NEW TERMS INITIAL POLICIES, THAN MAKE UP FOR THE EROSION
- 29. General elections re-electing governments (31) General elections changing governments (31) Trustinnationalgovernment ANOTHER TYPICAL PATH: CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT BRINGS HOPE, WHICH DIMINISHES OVER TIME, LEADING TO A NEW GOVERNMENT, BRINGING HOPE AGAIN
- 30. General elections re-electing governments (31) General elections changing governments (31) Trustinnationalgovernment ELECTIONS AS TRUST VALIDATORS ARE IMPERFECT: I.E. PRESIDENTIAL TERMS I.E. MINORITY GOVERNMENTS
- 31. QUESTIONS? MANCHIN@GALLUP.COM MORE ON GALLUP WORLDPOLL? VISIT WWW.GALLUP.COM HTTP://WORLDVIEW.GALLUP.COM
Editor's Notes
- #7: EXOGENOUS ALATT: GENERAL CULTURAL VALUES AND BELIEFS DRIVE PERCEPTIONS NEM KELL VESSZO A BELIEFS UTAN, ES ERTHETETLENNE TESZI