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syrto 7th framework programme vu amsterdam university unibs ca foscari university ecb bundesbank esrb 7fp systemic risk sorbonne 7 framework programme session discussant parisi athens university rss2013 clusters quality index sovereign bond financial markets network analysis vua 7 framework program ue banking system credit risk behavioral systematic risk contents scores data center working packages conference nonlinear cub models rating data v-lab eu nmc2014 cfe conference imf theoretical framework fluctuations macroeconomic policy connectedness transitions network connectivity cnrs garch analysis garch analysis garch analysis crns communication sovereign risk default sovereign risk default vu financial fluctuation financial fluctuation sistemic risk time series 7fp paris results frankfurt university risk cycles italy public debt liquidity arbitrage prevention links interconnectedness banking crises mem satisfaction perception sem machine learning danger zones unive bce