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Modelling the Variability of Evolutionary 
Processes 
Vicent Ribas 
Algebraic Models in Genomics 
June 2010
Outline 
1. Introduction 
 Molecular Clocks 
2. Mathematical Models 
 Assumptions 
 Markov Models 
 Variability of Evolutionary Processes: Neyman (two-state), GTR and WAG 
 Trees and Likelihoods 
 Site Variability 
 Gamma-Based Rate across Sites 
 Markov Modulated Models (MMM) 
3. Conclusions
Introduction 
 Phylogenetics is not only related to taxonomy (i.e. data/species classification into 
categories) since different regions in nucleotide and protein sequences are 
subject to different evolutionary pressures or strains. 
 Structural and functional constraints vary across sites of a protein or DNA 
sequence. 
 The structural and functional constraints that shape protein evolution also 
affect substitution processes at the nucleotide level and vice versa. 
 Two thirds of the nucleotide changes at the third codon position do not modify the 
amino acid translated (synonimous changes), whilst the mutations that take place at 
the second position systematically change the amino acid translated (non-synonimous 
changes). 
 The structure of the genetic code is also responsible for other evolutionary 
patterns which are more complex than variations in rates across codon positions. 
 Synonimous and non-synonimous mutations have varying probabilities of 
becoming `fixed' in a given population, which depends on the selective forces that 
act on the corresponding amino acids. Non-synonimous changes modify the structure 
of the peptide being transcribed and alter its function (recall the hallosteric / orthosteric 
binding site example outlined above).
Introduction: Molecular Clocks 
 It is normally assumed that the rate at which substitutions accumulate in 
proteins is constant over long periods of time. 
 The na誰ve implication of this fact results in the hypothesis that proteins could be 
used as molecular clocks''. 
 Given a phylogenetic tree and a calibration point, it would be possible to date past 
evolutionary events. 
 Unfortunately, there are several clocks ticking at different times (Bergsonian 
Time). 
 Nowadays the most accurate molecular dating methods more or less relax the 
molecular clock constraint and rely instead on statistical models that describe 
the variations of substitution rates across lineages. 
 Most phylogenetic methods do not aim at estimating substitution rates but 
rather expected numbers of substitutions along each edge and, thus, produce 
non-clocklike trees. 
 A common assumption is that the expected amount of substitutions that 
acumulate on a given branch is the same at every site of the alignment. 
 The substitution rate on a given branch supposed to be constant across 
sites. Biological evidence suggests that some sites evolve quickly in some lineages 
and slowly in other clades, while different evolutionary patterns are observed at 
other sites.
Mathematical Models: Assumptions 
 Aligned the sequences so as to extract homologous sites so that the dataset 
now comprises a set of sites where each site contains the character (nucleotide, 
amino acid, codon) of each of the sequences at a given position 
 Sites evolve independently. 
 Evolution has no memory, is time-continuous and time-homogeneous. 
 The evolutionary process is stationary. 
 The process is time-reversible. 
 These assumptions imply that any model can be characterized by an 
instantaneous rate matrix Q, which remains constant during evolution 
La Leche 
League
Mathematical Models: Markov Models 
 Continuous Markov Models follow the relation: 
 Which integrated, yields: 
 Stationarity implies that (a-priori probabilities): 
 And time-reversibility:
Mathematical Models: Variability of 
Evolutionary Models (Neyman Model) 
 Neymans 2 state model: 
 Analyze DNA data, in which case the two states are Purine (R: A or G) 
and Pyrimidine (Y: C or T). 
 Express that sites can be in two different configurations (i.e. free to 
mutate or remain invariant). This case is the typical bistable configuration 'on' 
or 'off'. This version is suitable to study the heterogeneity of mutation rates 
over time and across sites. 
 This model has just 1 free parameter
Mathematical Models: Variability of 
Evolutionary Models (GTR) 
 General Time Reversible Model (GTR): 
 Applied to DNA models and it is a 4 state model (ACGT) 
 Subject to: (10 parameters) 
 Conservation of the Purine/Pyrimidine status yields: 
 Transversions that transform Purine into Pyrimidine:
Mathematical Models: Variability of 
Evolutionary Models (Neyman Model) 
 Neymans 2 state model: 
 Analyze DNA data, in which case the two states are Purine (R: A or G) 
and Pyrimidine (Y: C or T). 
 Express that sites can be in two different configurations (i.e. free to 
mutate or remain invariant). This case is the typical bistable configuration 'on' 
or 'off'. This version is suitable to study the heterogeneity of mutation rates 
over time and across sites. 
 This model has just 1 free parameter
Mathematical Models: Variability of 
Evolutionary Models (GTR Simplified) 
 Defining , which is estimated from data: 
 Equal stationary probabilities result in the Kimura 2 Parameters Model 
(K2P). 
 Assuming k=1, and equal stationary nucleotide frequencies results in the 
Jukes-Cantor Model, which does not require any parameter estimation.
Mathematical Models: Variability of 
Evolutionary Models (WAG Model) 
 The WAG model applies to proteins and expresses the substitution rates of 
the 20 aminoacids. 
 It has been established from the analysis of a large number of protein families 
in a phylogenetic framework with ML methods. 
 The WAG symmetric matrix is given by:
Mathematical Models: Site Variability 
 Sites in amino-acid or nucleotide sequences are subject to different 
evolutionary pressures and it is expected to find among-site variability in the rates 
and modes of evolution. 
 Sites belong to categories, which define an evolutionary mode and are fixed 
a-priori. 
 Two different situations are taken into consideration: 
 the category of each site is known 
 the category of each site is unknown.
Mathematical Models: Markov Modultated 
Models 
 The substitution process that governs the evolution of an individual site can 
now change time. 
 These category changes follow a homogeneous, stationary and time-reversible 
Markov process. 
 Here the states are the evolutionary categories instead of the sequence 
characters. 
 The stationary category distribution is given by: 
 And the GTR matrix becomes: 
 隆 governs the global rate of change between categories
Conclusions 
 The main assumption of this work is that different regions in nucleotide and protein 
sequences are subject to different evolutionary pressures or strains. 
 This variability has been modelled by means of Continuous Markov models are 
characterized by an instantaneous rate matrix Q, which remains constant during 
evolution. 
 Different models to calculate this matrix Q have been presented. The most general one 
being the GTR (General Time Reversible). 
 Simplification of the GTR model results in different models studied in the course (K2P or 
JC as an example) by assuming, respectively: 
 equal stationary probabilities (K2P) 
 equal stationary nucleotide frequencies and k=1 (JC). 
 In regard to modelling the variability amongst proteomic sequences (peptides), the 
WAG model, which is widely used, has been presented. 
 Temporal variability is modelled by means of MMM. 
 This work is based on very strong assumptions (stationarity, time-reversibility, and 
independent evolution). 
 However, all these assumptions are necessary for the study, treatability and 
manageability of the models. 
 The models presented here have been successfully applied to the analysis of different 
sequences such as the HIV retrovirus envelope.

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Modelling the variability of evolutionary processes

  • 1. Modelling the Variability of Evolutionary Processes Vicent Ribas Algebraic Models in Genomics June 2010
  • 2. Outline 1. Introduction Molecular Clocks 2. Mathematical Models Assumptions Markov Models Variability of Evolutionary Processes: Neyman (two-state), GTR and WAG Trees and Likelihoods Site Variability Gamma-Based Rate across Sites Markov Modulated Models (MMM) 3. Conclusions
  • 3. Introduction Phylogenetics is not only related to taxonomy (i.e. data/species classification into categories) since different regions in nucleotide and protein sequences are subject to different evolutionary pressures or strains. Structural and functional constraints vary across sites of a protein or DNA sequence. The structural and functional constraints that shape protein evolution also affect substitution processes at the nucleotide level and vice versa. Two thirds of the nucleotide changes at the third codon position do not modify the amino acid translated (synonimous changes), whilst the mutations that take place at the second position systematically change the amino acid translated (non-synonimous changes). The structure of the genetic code is also responsible for other evolutionary patterns which are more complex than variations in rates across codon positions. Synonimous and non-synonimous mutations have varying probabilities of becoming `fixed' in a given population, which depends on the selective forces that act on the corresponding amino acids. Non-synonimous changes modify the structure of the peptide being transcribed and alter its function (recall the hallosteric / orthosteric binding site example outlined above).
  • 4. Introduction: Molecular Clocks It is normally assumed that the rate at which substitutions accumulate in proteins is constant over long periods of time. The na誰ve implication of this fact results in the hypothesis that proteins could be used as molecular clocks''. Given a phylogenetic tree and a calibration point, it would be possible to date past evolutionary events. Unfortunately, there are several clocks ticking at different times (Bergsonian Time). Nowadays the most accurate molecular dating methods more or less relax the molecular clock constraint and rely instead on statistical models that describe the variations of substitution rates across lineages. Most phylogenetic methods do not aim at estimating substitution rates but rather expected numbers of substitutions along each edge and, thus, produce non-clocklike trees. A common assumption is that the expected amount of substitutions that acumulate on a given branch is the same at every site of the alignment. The substitution rate on a given branch supposed to be constant across sites. Biological evidence suggests that some sites evolve quickly in some lineages and slowly in other clades, while different evolutionary patterns are observed at other sites.
  • 5. Mathematical Models: Assumptions Aligned the sequences so as to extract homologous sites so that the dataset now comprises a set of sites where each site contains the character (nucleotide, amino acid, codon) of each of the sequences at a given position Sites evolve independently. Evolution has no memory, is time-continuous and time-homogeneous. The evolutionary process is stationary. The process is time-reversible. These assumptions imply that any model can be characterized by an instantaneous rate matrix Q, which remains constant during evolution La Leche League
  • 6. Mathematical Models: Markov Models Continuous Markov Models follow the relation: Which integrated, yields: Stationarity implies that (a-priori probabilities): And time-reversibility:
  • 7. Mathematical Models: Variability of Evolutionary Models (Neyman Model) Neymans 2 state model: Analyze DNA data, in which case the two states are Purine (R: A or G) and Pyrimidine (Y: C or T). Express that sites can be in two different configurations (i.e. free to mutate or remain invariant). This case is the typical bistable configuration 'on' or 'off'. This version is suitable to study the heterogeneity of mutation rates over time and across sites. This model has just 1 free parameter
  • 8. Mathematical Models: Variability of Evolutionary Models (GTR) General Time Reversible Model (GTR): Applied to DNA models and it is a 4 state model (ACGT) Subject to: (10 parameters) Conservation of the Purine/Pyrimidine status yields: Transversions that transform Purine into Pyrimidine:
  • 9. Mathematical Models: Variability of Evolutionary Models (Neyman Model) Neymans 2 state model: Analyze DNA data, in which case the two states are Purine (R: A or G) and Pyrimidine (Y: C or T). Express that sites can be in two different configurations (i.e. free to mutate or remain invariant). This case is the typical bistable configuration 'on' or 'off'. This version is suitable to study the heterogeneity of mutation rates over time and across sites. This model has just 1 free parameter
  • 10. Mathematical Models: Variability of Evolutionary Models (GTR Simplified) Defining , which is estimated from data: Equal stationary probabilities result in the Kimura 2 Parameters Model (K2P). Assuming k=1, and equal stationary nucleotide frequencies results in the Jukes-Cantor Model, which does not require any parameter estimation.
  • 11. Mathematical Models: Variability of Evolutionary Models (WAG Model) The WAG model applies to proteins and expresses the substitution rates of the 20 aminoacids. It has been established from the analysis of a large number of protein families in a phylogenetic framework with ML methods. The WAG symmetric matrix is given by:
  • 12. Mathematical Models: Site Variability Sites in amino-acid or nucleotide sequences are subject to different evolutionary pressures and it is expected to find among-site variability in the rates and modes of evolution. Sites belong to categories, which define an evolutionary mode and are fixed a-priori. Two different situations are taken into consideration: the category of each site is known the category of each site is unknown.
  • 13. Mathematical Models: Markov Modultated Models The substitution process that governs the evolution of an individual site can now change time. These category changes follow a homogeneous, stationary and time-reversible Markov process. Here the states are the evolutionary categories instead of the sequence characters. The stationary category distribution is given by: And the GTR matrix becomes: 隆 governs the global rate of change between categories
  • 14. Conclusions The main assumption of this work is that different regions in nucleotide and protein sequences are subject to different evolutionary pressures or strains. This variability has been modelled by means of Continuous Markov models are characterized by an instantaneous rate matrix Q, which remains constant during evolution. Different models to calculate this matrix Q have been presented. The most general one being the GTR (General Time Reversible). Simplification of the GTR model results in different models studied in the course (K2P or JC as an example) by assuming, respectively: equal stationary probabilities (K2P) equal stationary nucleotide frequencies and k=1 (JC). In regard to modelling the variability amongst proteomic sequences (peptides), the WAG model, which is widely used, has been presented. Temporal variability is modelled by means of MMM. This work is based on very strong assumptions (stationarity, time-reversibility, and independent evolution). However, all these assumptions are necessary for the study, treatability and manageability of the models. The models presented here have been successfully applied to the analysis of different sequences such as the HIV retrovirus envelope.