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    Arab Spring

    VistaMind
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    North Africa & Middle East

       Traditionally seen as immune to Democracy
           Democracy has come to South America, Asia, Eastern Europe

       Typical features
           Bad rulers (Monarchs and Dictators)
           Poor Human Development Indicators
           High Unemployment
           Terrorist and Fundamentalist fringe elements
           Sectarian or Tribal loyalties
           Rule by brute force and by fear
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    Foreign Patronage

       Saddam Husain -US (Against Khomeinis Iran)

       Syria, Yemen by USSR

       Bahrain by Saudi Arabia

       International community was neutral
           Stability of the region
           Fear of fundamentalism
           Belief  Unsuitable for Democracy
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    Tunisia Dec 2010

       Small Country fringe player in the Arab World

       Better Educated, Relatively Prosperous nation

       Non Violent revolution
           Mohamed Bouazizi  Fruit vendor
           Millions onto the street

       Current Status: Democratic Coalition Govt
           Nahda, Islamist party + 2 Secular Parties
           Peaceful transition
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    Egypt  January 2010

       One of the cradles of the World Civilization

       18 years of Hosni Mubarak
           18 days of protests at Tahrir Square
           Army withdrew support from Hosni Mubarak

       Current Status
           Democratic and fair elections held
           Muslim Brotherhood, Army & Liberals key players
           Extremist Salafist Party
           Secular Liberals  Disorganized & unprepared
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    Egypt What lies in store

       Poor state of the economy
           Dependent on Tourism and Foreign Aid
           High inflation & Unemployment

       Muslim Brotherhood
           Strike a balance Islam and Modernity
           Well organized and politically savvy

       Secular Liberals
           Urban, Educated

       Army is the key
           Large reasonably modern disciplined army
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    Libya  Feb  Oct 2011

       Oil Rich, Sparsely populated
           40 years of Mummar Qaddafi
           No traces of Democracy or civil rights
           Rule of terror, megalomania, opulence
           Flirtation with Terorrism

       Protests to Civil War
           Use of force against unarmed protesters
           Defections from armed forces
           Western Air support tilts the balance
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    Bahrain  Feb 2011

       A key ally of Saudi Arabia - USA
           The Khalifa Dynasty (Sunni)
           Vast majority is Shia
           Protests for democracy, Constitutional monarchy
           Saudi Troops sent to back the Ruling monarchy
           USA stays largely silent
           30 Killed, 300+ arrested, many missing

       Key Forces
           Largest opposition party Wefaq
           The Suadi Royal Family
           Kuwait  offered services as Mediator
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    Syria March 2011 onwards

       President Bashar AL Assad
           Ruler since 1963
           Emergency law since 63 bans opp parties

       Protests  Repression  Civil War
           Unarmed protests are brutally put down
           Armed rebellion escalates to civil war
           Over 30,000 people killed
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    Syria March 2011 onwards

       Free Syrian Army
           Rebels and Defectors from Syrian Army
           Formation of Government in Exile
           Recognition by 149 countries

       Arab League intervention
           Throws Syria our of the league
           Imposes sanctions, joined by Turkey
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    Key Learning's

       Educated unemployed people have high aspirations, can lead
        to dissatisfaction

       Aspirations and hope is contagious

       Social Media is highly effective at organizing protests and
        difficult to censor

       Democratic institutions take time to build

More Related Content

Arab spring

  • 1. + Arab Spring VistaMind
  • 2. + North Africa & Middle East Traditionally seen as immune to Democracy Democracy has come to South America, Asia, Eastern Europe Typical features Bad rulers (Monarchs and Dictators) Poor Human Development Indicators High Unemployment Terrorist and Fundamentalist fringe elements Sectarian or Tribal loyalties Rule by brute force and by fear
  • 3. + Foreign Patronage Saddam Husain -US (Against Khomeinis Iran) Syria, Yemen by USSR Bahrain by Saudi Arabia International community was neutral Stability of the region Fear of fundamentalism Belief Unsuitable for Democracy
  • 4. + Tunisia Dec 2010 Small Country fringe player in the Arab World Better Educated, Relatively Prosperous nation Non Violent revolution Mohamed Bouazizi Fruit vendor Millions onto the street Current Status: Democratic Coalition Govt Nahda, Islamist party + 2 Secular Parties Peaceful transition
  • 5. + Egypt January 2010 One of the cradles of the World Civilization 18 years of Hosni Mubarak 18 days of protests at Tahrir Square Army withdrew support from Hosni Mubarak Current Status Democratic and fair elections held Muslim Brotherhood, Army & Liberals key players Extremist Salafist Party Secular Liberals Disorganized & unprepared
  • 6. + Egypt What lies in store Poor state of the economy Dependent on Tourism and Foreign Aid High inflation & Unemployment Muslim Brotherhood Strike a balance Islam and Modernity Well organized and politically savvy Secular Liberals Urban, Educated Army is the key Large reasonably modern disciplined army
  • 7. + Libya Feb Oct 2011 Oil Rich, Sparsely populated 40 years of Mummar Qaddafi No traces of Democracy or civil rights Rule of terror, megalomania, opulence Flirtation with Terorrism Protests to Civil War Use of force against unarmed protesters Defections from armed forces Western Air support tilts the balance
  • 8. + Bahrain Feb 2011 A key ally of Saudi Arabia - USA The Khalifa Dynasty (Sunni) Vast majority is Shia Protests for democracy, Constitutional monarchy Saudi Troops sent to back the Ruling monarchy USA stays largely silent 30 Killed, 300+ arrested, many missing Key Forces Largest opposition party Wefaq The Suadi Royal Family Kuwait offered services as Mediator
  • 9. + Syria March 2011 onwards President Bashar AL Assad Ruler since 1963 Emergency law since 63 bans opp parties Protests Repression Civil War Unarmed protests are brutally put down Armed rebellion escalates to civil war Over 30,000 people killed
  • 10. + Syria March 2011 onwards Free Syrian Army Rebels and Defectors from Syrian Army Formation of Government in Exile Recognition by 149 countries Arab League intervention Throws Syria our of the league Imposes sanctions, joined by Turkey
  • 11. + Key Learning's Educated unemployed people have high aspirations, can lead to dissatisfaction Aspirations and hope is contagious Social Media is highly effective at organizing protests and difficult to censor Democratic institutions take time to build

Editor's Notes

  • #2: Arab Spring is the name given to a wave of protests which sought to change governments. In some cases non violent and in some cases violent, it spread from country to country. It is also significant that it was led by the youth, was largely secular and aimed at bringing about representative democracy. Another significant fact would be the extensive use of social media probably the first mass movement that relied on Internet and social media.
  • #7: 4 Finance ministers changed in less than a year
  • #8: Oct 2011,Qadaffiz convoy was hit by western air strikes and then Rebels found him hidden in a drain pipe, dragged and killed him.