This document discusses how entrepreneurs can use analogs and antilogs to help mitigate uncertainty when developing new business plans and ventures. It defines analogs as successful predecessor companies that aspects of their models can be borrowed or adapted from. Antilogs are defined as predecessor companies that entrepreneurs choose to do things differently from, often because some of what they did was unsuccessful. The document provides Starbucks as an example of a company that used both analogs and antilogs in developing their business model. It stresses the importance of identifying any leaps of faith or questions where analogs and antilogs do not provide answers, and using experimentation to test hypotheses before fully committing resources.
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1. On Analogs and Antilogs in
Innovation
Ziya G. Boyacigiller
This presentation was created and given by Ziya
Boyacigiller who was leading Angel Investor and a loved
mentor to many young entrepreneurs in Turkey. We have
shared it on the web for everyones benefit. It is free to
use but please cite Ziya Boyacigiller as the source when
you use any part of this presentation. For more about
Ziya Boyacigillers contributions to the start-up Ecosystem
of Turkey, please go to www.ziyaboyacigiller.com
2. ON ANALOGS AND ANTILOGS IN
INNOVATION
Ziya G. Boyacigiller
Sabanci University
BA, MBA and EXEC MBA
2004 through 2013
4. The uncertainty that surrounds most innovations
and most new ventures can be significantly
mitigated by comparing the plan on the table to
other businesses already in existence.
UNCERTAINTY RULES
6. THIS WONT HAPPEN BY DUPLICATING THE
MODELS ALREADY IN EXISTENCE.
IF THOSE ARE WORKING, WHO NEEDS YOU!
7. BUSINESS
MODEL means the
pattern of economic
activity (cash
flowing in and out of
your business for
various purposes
and the timing
thereof) that dictates
whether or not you
run out of cash and
whether or not you
deliver attractive
PROFITS to your
investors and
yourself.
8. DONT REINVENT THE WHEEL: ANALOGS
ANALOGS to your idea are successful
predecessor companies that are worth
mimicking in some way.
There are many analogs out there, portions of which can be
borrowed or adapted to help you understand the economics
and various other facets of your proposed business and its
business model.
11. BE DIFFERENT: ANTILOGS
ANTILOGS are predecessor companies
compared to which you explicitly choose to do
things differently, perhaps because some of
what they did has been unsuccessful.
15. ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS: LEAPS OF FAITH
It is not what you know that will likely make
you fail, it is what you dont know you dont
know
Identify the questions where analogs and antilogs dont provide the
answers.
The questions you cannot answer from historical precedent lead
you to your leaps of faith beliefs you hold about the
answers to your questions despite having no real evidence that
these beliefs are actually true.
16. TEST EXPERIMENT Use your creativity
and find a way to prove or disprove your hypothesis
before you waste too much of your time or your money.
TO TEST YOUR LEAPS OF FAITH YOU HAVE TO LEAP