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Trade Analytics -
An Assignment on Finding Top 10 Export
Products of Vietnam 2012-2013
Group - 4
Submittedto: Prof. Bibek Roy Chaudhuri
Submitted by : Deepak Pant [15]
Deepak Dhingra [16] , Ankush Seth [09]

Introduction
In this Assignment, we have chosen Vietnam as a country of our choice to find out top ten
potential exports.
Vietnam’s economy continues to expand at an annual rate in excess of 7%, one of the fastest
growing in the world, but it grew from an extremely low base, as it suffered the crippling effect
of the Vietnam War from the 1950s to the 1970s, as well as the austerity measures introduced in
its aftermath In 2012, the communist party was forced to apologize about the mismanagement of
the economy after large numbers of SOEs went bankrupt and inflation rose. However the
government have launched schemes to reform the economy such as lifting foreign ownership cap
from 49% and partially privatizing the countries State owned companies which have
beenresponsible for the recent economic downturn by the end of 2013 the government are
expected to privatize 25–50 percent of most SOEs only maintaining control on public services
and military. The recent reforms have created a major boom in the Vietnamese stock market
asconfidence in the Vietnamese economy are returning
In 2007, Vietnam ran a trade deficit of US$14.1 billion, but the trade deficit for the first half of
2008 alone was measured at US$14.8 billion.
In 2012, Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of US$780 million, the first trade surplus since 1993.
Total trade reached US$228.13 billion, an increase of 12.1% from 2011.
In 2012, export rose 18.2%, valued at US$114.57 billion Vietnam's main export market included
the EU with US$20 billion, USA with US$19 billion, ASEAN with $US 17.8 billion, Japan with
US$13.9 billion, China with US$14.2 billion, and South Korea with US$7 billion.
In 2013, export rose 15.4%, valued at US$132.17 billion, of which export of electronics now
comprised 24.5% of total export, compared with a 4.4% in 2008. Textiles and garments are still
an important part in Vietnam's export, valued about US$21.5 billion in 2013.
So, overall in the last 5 years, Vietnam's exports have doubled as competitive minimum wage
and low costs of utilities boosted foreign direct investment. Vietnam main exports are:
miscellaneous articles including clothing and footwear (30 percent of the total shipments) and
machinery, transports and equipment (23 percent). Others include: food and live animals (18
percent), manufactured goods (11 percent) and fuel (11 percent).
In this study, we will extract the top exports from Vietnam via the data fetched from WITS ( UN
COMTRADE) and doing SHIFT-SHARE analysis.

Methodology
 We have first extracted the export data from Vietnam to world for ALL3 -- Sub-Heading
(all 6-digit HS codes ) of year 2012 and 2013 through WITS TRADE DATA (UN
COMTRADE), then we have conducted the analysis using SHIFT SHARE
method.Based on the average growth of all markets that are studied, an expected growth
figure is computed.
 Afterwards, the expected growth rate of each market is compared with its actual growth.
If the share in a particular market was increased, the difference in the net shift is said to
be positive, otherwise if there is a negative net shift, this implies loss of the share over the
period.
 The magnitude of the gain or loss stands for the differences between that market’s actual
performance and theperformance it would have had if its growth rate had been equal to
the average growth of the wholemarket. The shift-share technique which is a statistical
technique is employed to analyze data. Thistechnique analyzes changes in trade over the
intervening period of time on the basis of the exportchanges that take place in the market
share.
Implementation
1) We have first calculated the expected value of the growth by multiplying the export value
with the initial period (2012 in our case) by all markets growth rate. The growth rate can
be calculated by dividing the sum of all values of terminal period( 2013 in our case) by
sum of all values of initial period ( 2012)
2) Then we have calculated the expected change of the value of a growth variable for a
particular item in a given time period which is the difference between the expected value
and the actual value for the item at the end of the initial time period(2012). If E(ΔVi) is
the expected change, then
ztiti kVVE  ,, )(
ztitii VVEVE  ,, )()(

3) Shift-share analysis requires measurements on a variable of interest (an exported product)
for each member of the group (exported items) at the beginning and end of a specified
period of analysis. In other words, the export value at the end of terminal period minus
the export value at the end of initial period for each item. The growth rate (GR) of the
item (i) can be measured as:
4) After calculating this, we have then calculated the difference between the actual change
and the expected change i.e.The net shift. So, the Net Shift is:
5) Now the sum of positive net shifts or the sum of negative net shifts S represents the total
absolute net shift,which is calculated by:
Note:Inour case,we usedonlypositive valuesto calculate the absolute netshift.
6) Finally we have calculated the relative gain or loss in the value of a growth variable for a
particular product i, in a given time period is defined as the percentage net shift (which
represents market gain or loss) Pi
Where
ztitii VVV  ,,
)( ii VEVNi 
2
)(
1



n
i
ii VEV
S
%)100(
S
N
P i
i 

Final Result
After calculating Pi, we have arranged the product in decreasing order of their Pi value. As per
this calculation, the Top 10 export product of ALL3 -- Sub-Heading (all 6-digit HS codes) from
Vietnam are:
S.No/Rankings Product
code Pi
1 851712 80.36563992
2 847130 16.81736354
3 640399 8.61479818
4 640419 4.72311308
5 30617 2.65417084
6 170199 2.02077619
7 640391 1.99200279
8 630312 1.74686034
9 160521 1.64328019
10 871120 1.60845861
Andthe nomenclature forthe above mentionedProductcodesare mentionedbelow aspertheir
rankings:
1) Telephone for cellular networks or for other wireless networks.
2) Portable automaticdata processing machines, weighing not more than 10Kg,
consisting of at least a central process unit (CPU), a keyboard & a display.
3) Other - In Footwear with Outer Soles of rubber, plastics, leather or composition
leather and uppers of leather
4) Other - In Footwear with Outer Soles of rubber, plastics, leather or composition
leather and uppers of textile materials
5) Other Shrimps & Prawns Under - Crustaceans , whether in shell or not, live , fresh,
chilled, frozen, dried, salted or in brine, smoked crustaceans, whether in shell or not,
whether or not cooked before, or during the smoking process, crustaceans, in shell,
cooked by steaming, or by boiling.
6) Other - In Cane or beet sugar and chemically pure sucrose, in solid form
7) Covering the ankle Under - In Footwear with Outer Soles of rubber, plastics, leather or
composition leather and uppers of leather
8) Of Synthetic fibers Under - Curtains ( including Drapes)and interiorblinds; curtain or
bed valances
9) Not in Airtight Container Under - Crustaceans, molluscs & other aquatic invertebrates,
prepared or preserved.
10) With Reciprocating internal combustion piston engine of a cylinder capacity exceeding
50 cc but not exceeding 250cc Under - Motorcycles ( including Mopeds) & cycles fitted
with an auxiliary motor, with or without side - cars; side-cars.

The trend inexportsisvisibleviathe chartmentionedbelow.The chartincludesexportdataof Vietnam
for the yearJan 2012- Dec 2013
In attachedExcel sheet,we have computedall the above mentionedvalues. The above mentioned
formulae’shave beenusedinexcel sheettogetthe data.Also,separate 3 tabshave beenusedinexcel
file toshowthe computationof Si , Formulae’susedandDataextractedfromWITS site.
Group_4_Vietname_
Excel_With_Calculations.xlsx

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SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS METHOD FOR EXPORT POTENTIAL OF VIETNAM 10 PRODUCT

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