The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics
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This document discusses statistics related to the principles of the UNFCCC over 21 years. It shows that non-Annex I countries, or developing countries, have accounted for a growing share of total global greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 1994 as their GDP has increased. The data indicates emissions and GDP for both Annex I and non-Annex I countries over this period according to the International Energy Agency.
![The road from Doha
Determined to adopt a protocol,
another legal instrument or an agreed
outcome with legal force under the
Convention applicable to all Parties ...
at [COP 21] and for it to come into
effect and be implemented from
2020. Decision Change Expert Group
Climate
2/CP.18
2](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/gregorybriner-principles-130405092314-phpapp01/85/The-UNFCCC-Principles-21-Years-On-Some-Relevant-Statistics-2-320.jpg)
The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics
- 1. The UNFCCC Principles, 21 Years On: Some Relevant Statistics Gregory Briner Climate Justice Dialogue Mobilising Bold Action 4 April 2013 Climate Change Expert Group
- 2. The road from Doha Determined to adopt a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties ... at [COP 21] and for it to come into effect and be implemented from 2020. Decision Change Expert Group Climate 2/CP.18 2
- 3. Principles of the Convention Common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities Equity Consideration of the needs Promotion of sustainable of particularly vulnerable development countries Promotion of an open Lack of scientific certainty international economic should not be used as a system reason to postpone action 3 Climate Change Expert Group
- 4. A note of caution on the use of indicators Many indicators can be used and each paints a different picture Data quality and availability can vary greatly between countries and indicators 4 Climate Change Expert Group
- 5. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1990 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 6. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1991 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 7. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1992 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 8. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1993 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 9. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1994 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 10. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1995 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 11. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1996 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 12. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1997 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 13. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1998 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 14. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 1999 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 15. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 16. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2001 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 17. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2002 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 18. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2003 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 19. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2004 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 20. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2005 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 21. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2006 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 22. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2007 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 23. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2008 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 24. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2009 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 25. Non-Annex I countries are accounting for a growing share of total world GHG emissions non-Annex I Annex I 35,000 Non-Annex I Annex I 30,000 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO 2-eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 2010 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 3 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 27. There is variation within regional groups 2,000 2010 Annual GHG emissions excl. LULUCF (MtCO2-eq) 1,500 Brazil 1,000 500 Argentina Mexico 0 Peru Costa Rica Chile Colombia -500 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 GDP (billion 2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 28. The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly 25 1990 Average GHG emissions per capita excl. LULUCF sinks (tCO2-eq) 20 15 Russia US 10 Europe 5 China 0 India 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Cumulative population (billion) Source: IEA
- 29. The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly 25 2010 Average GHG emissions per capita excl. LULUCF sinks (tCO2-eq) 20 15 US Russia 10 5 Europe China India 0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Cumulative population (billion) Source: IEA
- 30. The picture in terms of per capita GHG emissions is also changing rapidly 25 2020 Average GHG emissions per capita excl. LULUCF sinks (tCO2-eq) 20 15 10 US Russia 5 Europe China India 0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Cumulative population (billion) Source: IEA
- 31. GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates 3.5 China GHG emissions per unit GDP (kgCO2-eq) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1990 1990 Russia 1.5 India US 1.0 South Africa 0.5 EU 0.0 -0.5 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 32. GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates 3.5 China GHG emissions per unit GDP (kgCO2-eq) 3.0 2.5 2.0 Russia 2010 1.5 India US 1.0 0.5 South Africa 0.0 EU -0.5 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 33. GHG emissions per unit GDP are decreasing in most regions, but at different rates 3.5 China GHG emissions per unit GDP (kgCO2-eq) 3.0 2.5 2.0 Russia 2020 1.5 India US 1.0 0.5 0.0 South EU -0.5 Africa -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 GDP per capita (2005 USD, PPP) Source: IEA
- 34. Moving beyond GDP: Gini Index and the Human Development Index 100 90 80 70 Colombia Brazil Honduras 60 Latin America and the Caribbean Peru Gini Index in 2008 Costa Rica Mexico 50 El Salvador Asia C担te d'Ivoire Thailand Russia Europe 40 Niger Poland Africa 30 Slovakia Afghanistan Vietnam Pakistan 20 Ukraine Egypt 10 0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Human Development Index in 2011 Source: World Bank
- 35. Implications for the ADP negotiations Should aim to make the post-2020 agreement future proof No single quantitative indicator can give a complete picture of countries responsibilities or capabilities Caution would be needed if these metrics were to be used as indicators of responsibilities or capabilities Vulnerability and adaptation indicators are difficult to develop Some of the information that would be most helpful to know (e.g. mitigation potential, abatement costs) is highly uncertain or unavailable for many countries 35 Climate Change Expert Group
- 36. Latest CCXG work Making Markets: Unpacking Design and Governance of Carbon Market Mechanisms (November 2012) Andrew Prag, Gregory Briner (OECD) and Christina Hood (IEA) Projecting Emissions Baselines for National Climate Policy: Options for Guidance to Improve Transparency (November 2012) Christa Clapp and Andrew Prag (OECD) Crossing the Threshold: Ambitious Baselines for the UNFCCC New Market- Based Mechanism (May 2012) Andrew Prag and Gregory Briner (OECD) Tracking Climate Finance: What and How? (May 2012) Christa Clapp, Jane Ellis, Julia Benn, Jan Corfee-Morlot (OECD) www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg 36 Climate Change Expert Group
- 37. Thank you Gregory Briner gregory.briner@oecd.org www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg 37 Climate Change Expert Group