Xrisk 101 (2013 - Starship Congress - Full presentation, Nick Nielsen and Heath Rezabek)
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際際滷s Only, No Notes! For version with Notes, (first half only) see http://www.slideshare.net/heathrezabek/xrisk-101-existential-risk-for-interstellar-advocates-wnotes The full version of a joint presentation at Starship Congress 2013, August 15-18, Dallas TX. First section by Heath Rezabek, second section by Nick Nielsen.
Xrisk 101 (2013 - Starship Congress - Full presentation, Nick Nielsen and Heath Rezabek)
- 39. our pale blue dot places Earth in its cosmological context
- 40. astrobiology places life in a cosmological context Astrobiology is the study of the origin, evolution, distribution, and future of life in the universe. (NASA) The study of the living universe. (NASA, 1996) The study of life in space. (Mix, 2009) Astrobiology removes the distinction between life on our planet and life elsewhere. (Plaxco and Gross, 2006)
- 41. The Fermi Paradox The universe is billions of years old, friendly to life, and yet we find no evidence of highly advanced civilizations.
- 42. Where are the aliens? right here, on Earth!
- 43. The Great Filter Multiple hominid Ancestors and Predecessor Species Multiple post-human And sucessor species The Present The Distant Past The Far Future
- 44. Filters and Risks in Human History
- 45. What follows our terrestrial industrial-technological civilization? Extraterrestrialization places earth-originating civilization in cosmological context.
- 47. Available technologies will influence the structure of the civilization that transcends each gravitational threshold Slow first wave/fast second wave Planetary threshold Solar threshold Galactic threshold Multiverse threshold Fast first wave/slow second wave Planetary threshold Solar threshold Galactic threshold Multiverse threshold
- 48. Principles of Existential Risk Mitigation Knowledge transforms unknown uncertainties into quantifiable risks that admit of calculation and mitigation Redundancy means multiple self-sufficient centers for Earth-originating intelligent life Autonomy assures independence of each self-sufficient center to seek its own strategies for survival
- 49. Knowledge Knightian Risk: prediction, risk, and uncertainty No risk is entirely free of uncertainty No uncertainty lies beyond what is possible in our universe Risk is dynamic, and changes over time Growth of knowledge moves the boundary between risk and uncertainty, expanding risk at the expense of uncertainty.
- 50. Redundancy Knowledge alone is not enough Terrestrial single point failure Multiple self-sufficient centers for Earth- originating intelligent life Distinct centers of earth-originating life will be subject to distinct risks and distinct opportunities Distinct centers will be subject to distinct selection pressures
- 51. Autonomy Knowledge of risks and redundant centers of earth-originating life together are not enough Redundancy without diversity incurs the risk of homogeneity and monoculture Independence of each self-sufficient center to seek its own strategies of survival Social and technological experimentation Realization of distinct forms of civilization Autonomy may be more difficult to achieve than we suppose
- 52. Moral Imperatives of Existential Risk Who would object to preventing human extinction? Can we agree on what constitutes human viability in the long term? There are vastly different conceptions of what constitutes a viable civilization and of what constitutes the good for civilization What is stagnation? Flawed realization? Ruination? What exactly would constitute the drastic failure of that life to realise its potential for desirable development? What is human potential? Does it include transhumanism?
- 53. Maximizing the probability of an OK outcome Different conceptions of human potential and desirable outcomes will issue in different ideals, aspirations, and actions If we can Continue to increase knowledge Establish redundancy Assure autonomy there is reason to hope that existential catastrophe can be avoided and an OK outcome realized (maxipok rule)
- 54. the endnot