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Solar Power Development in Vietnam (Language - Vietnamese)

JAIDEEP MANN
JAIDEEP MANN

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Solar Power Development in Vietnam Growing Your Business is Our Business.
Ph叩c Th畉o K畛ch b畉n Ton c畉u v畛 Nng l動畛ng v Solar PV Nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i t畛: Schematics v BoS C担ng ngh畛 nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i PV v Accosiate BoS Giai o畉n ph叩t tri畛n d畛 叩n nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i v vai tr嘆 c畛a c叩c b棚n li棚n quan T鱈nh kh畉 thi v 叩nh gi叩 th動董ng m畉i Nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i 畛 Vi畛t Nam Ch鱈nh s叩ch nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i hi畛n t畉i v s畛 ph叩t tri畛n H畛 s董 b畛c x畉 m畉t tr畛i c畛a qu畛c gia 叩nh gi叩 r畛i ro v c叩ch ti畉p c畉n Ph但n t鱈ch ti ch鱈nh
Solar PV v k畛ch b畉n ton c畉u v畛 Nng l動畛ng 24% 76% T畛 L畛 CHIA S畉 NHU C畉U I畛N TON C畉U Renewable Non Renewable 1064.00 106.00 13.20 240.00 433.00 4.80 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.001000.001200.00 HYDRO POWER BIO POWER GEOTHERMAL & CSP SOLAR PV WIND POWER CSP NNG L働畛NG TI T畉O TRN TON C畉U 働畛C LP 畉T (GW) Stat Nng l動畛ng t叩i t畉o chi畉m 28,90% c担ng su畉t ph叩t i畛n ton c畉u v 23,70% trong nhu c畉u s畛 d畛ng cu畛i T畛ng c担ng su畉t RE 動畛c l畉p 畉t l ~ 1861 GW cho 畉n th叩ng 1 nm 2016 Tr棚n ton c畉u 148 GW tng th棚m trong nm 2015 17% d但n s畛 th畉 gi畛i v畉n thi畉u i畛n - kho畉ng 1,2 t畛 ng動畛i 40 70 100 138 177 240 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nng l動畛ng Solar PV 働畛C L畉p 畉t THEO c担ng su畉t (GW) Ton c畉u CAGR c畛a Solar PV t動董ng 動董ng ~34.80% YoY trong 6 nm g畉n 但y v x畉p x畛 ~20.26% trong 3 nm tr畛 l畉i China added maximum Solar Capacity of 13.6 GW 83% 17% S畛 D畛NG I畛N TH畉 GI畛I With Access With out Access
Solar PV K畛ch b畉n ton c畉u: Nng l動畛ng t叩i t畉o, 畉u t動 & Ph叩t Tri畛n #Source: BNEF new Energy Outlook 2016,,UNEP,Frankfurt School of finance & mgmt., Investment exclude. Large Hydro >50 MW 98.69 84.22 81.91 90.58 105.66 109.64103.69 154.82 146.17 119.06 143.78 161.04 0 50 100 150 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Xu h動畛ng 畉u t動 c畛a i畛n Solar & Gi坦 tr棚n ton c畉u (t畛 USD) Wind Solar 20 21 23 24 25 28 25 25 28 29 45 4815 16 12 12 21 1860 80 75 60 55 60 156 175 152 143 169 195 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 畉u t動 m畛i vo nng l動畛ng t叩i t畉o ph但n lo畉i theo h狸nh th畛c tr棚n ton c畉u Corporate & Govt. R&D VC/PE Public Market Smakl distrubuted capacity Assets Finance 畉u t動 vo Solar PV 達 tng l棚n 12% t畛 nm ti ch鱈nh 14-15 畉n nm ti ch鱈nh 15- 16 Trong nm 畉u t動 ton c畉u vo nng l動畛ng s畉ch l $ 348.9 Bn (+10.80%) 畉u t動 畛 c叩c n動畛c ang ph叩t tri畛n Tng 48% (畉c bi畛t l gi坦 + 56,2% v nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i PV + 47,05% 276.1 317.57 290.7 268.6 315 348.9 2010, 34.0% 2011, 15.0% 2012, -8.5%2013, -7.6% 2014, 17.3% 2015, 10.8% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Xu h動畛ng 畉u t動 ton c畉u (t畛 USD) trong 6 nm qua
Solar PV Th担ng Tin C担ng Ngh畛 Solar PV Technology Crystalline Technology Poly Mono Thin film Thin film silicon CIS/CIGS CdTe Tinh th畛 Thin Film C叩c lo畉i v畉t li畛u a tinh th畛 Amorphous Silicon, CdS, CdTe, CIS/ CIGS, etc. Ti棚u Chu畉n Hi畛u su畉t 16.25% to 17.32% 14.50% to 16% k畛 thu畉t Ph叩t tri畛n t畛t Ph叩t tri畛n t畛t Tr畛ng l動畛ng ti棚u chu畉n tr畛ng l動畛ng nh畉(0.1Kg/W) H董i n畉ng (0.17 Kg/W) Hi畛u 畛ng nhi畛t 畛 T叩c 畛ng cao nh畉t c畛a bi畉n 畛i nhi畛t 畛 T叩c 畛ng nh畛 h董n c畛a bi畉n 畛i nhi畛t 畛 chi畉u x畉 動畛c s畛 d畛ng 畉c bi畛t cho c叩c b畛c x畉 th担ng th動畛ng Hi畛u su畉t t畛t h董n v畛i b畛c x畉 khu畉ch t叩n Ti棚u chu畉n ch畉t l動畛ng t ti棚u chu畉n y棚u c畉u h董n Y棚u c畉u nhi畛u ti棚u chu畉n
Solar PV Generation Schematics The energy from sunlight gets converted into DC Current on hitting the solar panels. The current so produced is fed into inverter to give AC Current at a low voltage. The transformer connected to the inverter steps up the voltage to an exportable level after which the electricity produced is fed to the grid.
Solar PV Balance of Plant www.WorldRef.org B畛 i畛u h嘆a nhi畛t 畛 / bi畉n t畉n H畛p n畛i C叩p DC v AC C担ng su畉t bi畉n t畉n v bi畉n 叩p i畛n B畉ng HT v LT Thi畉t b畛 ch畛ng s辿t C畉u tr炭c g畉n m担-un C董 s畛 c畛a thi畉t b畛 i畛n v theo d探i, bi畉n t畉n v ph嘆ng i畛u khi畛n R達nh tho叩t n動畛c C叩p i畛n T動畛ng ranh gi畛i Ngo畉i vi v 動畛ng n畛i b畛 i畛n t畛 C担ng tr狸nh d但n d畛ng Gi叩m s叩t Gi叩m s叩t SCADA M叩y 畉nh CCTV Tr畉m th畛i ti畉t Chi畉u s叩ng 動畛ng ph畛 R董le v B畛 ng畉t m畉ch B畛 c叩ch ly 動畛ng d但y truy畛n t畉i Th叩p truy畛n Ch畛ng s辿t C叩p n畛i 畉t v d畉i
Solar PV Giai o畉n ph叩t tri畛n d畛 叩n Solar & vai tr嘆 c畛a nh 畉u t動 Ti畛n ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Ph但n t鱈ch ti畛n kh畉 thi v畛 th動董ng m畉i c担ng ngh畛 H狸nh thnh c担ng ty X叩c 畛nh 畉t ai K箪 k畉t PPA G坦i ti ch鱈nh Gi畉y ph辿p v gi畉y ph辿p L畛a ch畛n nh th畉u EPC Quy ho畉ch v X但y d畛ng Ho畉t 畛ng L畛a ch畛n nh th畉u O & M Bn giao nh m叩y Doanh thu 90 D 240 D 30 D Stakeholder Developer Government EPC contractor O&M Contractor Lenders Giai o畉n ph叩t tri畛n Ti畛n ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Ti畛n ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Vai tr嘆 v Tr叩ch nhi畛m T鱈nh kh畉 thi tr動畛c Lm vi畛c v畛i C董 quan ch畛c nng B畛 tr鱈 C担ng n畛 / V畛n ch畛 s畛 h畛u 畉u t動 畉t ai Gi畉y ph辿p v gi畉y ph辿p H畛 tr畛 畉u th畉u K箪 k畉t PPA ESCROW di h畉n Ph叩t tri畛n 畉t Mua s畉m thi畉t b畛 Thi畉t k畉, X但y d畛ng v v畉n hnh V畉n hnh v b畉o d動畛ng nh m叩y N畛 Kh畉o s叩t hi畛n tr動畛ng T坦m t畉t v畛 c叩ch th畛c ti畉n hnh 叩nh gi叩 v畛 B畛c x畉, Nng su畉t, Nng l動畛ng v t狸nh tr畉ng 畉t Ph但n t鱈ch so s叩nh c叩c qu畛c gia Ph但n t鱈ch So s叩nh Ch鱈nh s叩ch i畛u ch畛nh ch鱈nh s叩ch kinh doanh L畛a ch畛n c担ng ngh畛 D畛 to叩n chi ph鱈 cho d畛 叩n 叩nh gi叩 r畛i ro v k畉 ho畉ch Ti ch鱈nh d畛 叩n
63% 32% 3% 2% Cost Breakup of Solar Project Solar PV Module BoS Softcost (Design, Management, Financing cost) Contingency Solar PV module share ~63-64% of project cost, but cost of Poly C-Si based module ($/Wp) has been decreased by 80% in 5-6 years SelectionofStates High Solar radiation availability Availability of barren/government/waste land Suitable Policy of State DistrictwiseMetrologicalData Comparison Solar Radiation Temperature Wind Speed Seismic zone Rainfall Humidity TypeofLand Type of Ownership Type of Soil Distance from Sub-Station Power Evacuation Region wise Generation Comparison Solar PV Ph叩t tri畛n d畛 叩n & Ph但n 畛nh chi ph鱈
Vietnam Ton c畉nh v畛 Nng l動畛ng Solar v Nng l動畛ng t畉i Vi畛t nam Vietnam Di畛n t鱈ch 331230.80 km Vu担ng D但n s畛 ~94.4 Tri畛u Ngnh kch鱈nh Khai kho叩ng, Nng l動畛ng, S畉n xu畉t, N担ng nghi畛p Thnh Ph畛 Trung 働董ng Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Da Nang M担i tr動畛ng kinh doanh T畛c 畛 tng tr動畛ng GDP 6.20% Hng nm Thu畉n ti畛n trong kinh doanh 68 Ch畛 s畛 v畛 m畛c 畛 tham nh滴ng 113 Ti棚u th畛 nng l動畛ng tr棚n 畉u ng動畛i 1200 kWh/ ng動畛i 畉u t動 vo h畉 t畉ng c董 s畛 畛 ph叩t i畛n lm ch畉m l畉i nhu c畉u tng tr動畛ng M畛t trong nh畛ng 畛a i畛m ti畛m nng cho nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i t畛t nh畉t Ti畛m nng l畛n do ch但u l畛c ny c嘆n thi畉u nhu c畉u i畛n c董 b畉n N動畛c ang ph叩t tri畛n nhanh nh畉t 畛 Ch但u T畛 nm 1990 畉n nm 2015 T畛 l畛 i畛n nng cao nh畉t (98%) L畉p 畉t 39 GW ph叩t i畛n (40% Hydro) T畉t c畉 畛u 畉u t動 c担ng khai T畛 nm 2015 tr畛 i V畉n c嘆n ph畉i 畛i m畉t v畛i nhi畛u th叩ch th畛c Kho畉ng c叩ch gi畛a t畛c 畛 tng tr動畛ng kinh t畉 v i畛n An ninh nng l動畛ng v v畉n 畛 EHS Kh担ng 畛 畉u t動 c担ng
Vietnam Solar K畉 ho畉ch ph叩t tri畛n nng l動畛ng c坦 s畛a 畛i l畉n VII v Ti畛m nng 2020 2025 2030 Solar 850 4000 12000 Wind 800 2000 6000 Biomass 1000 1500 4000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 MW M畛c ti棚u v畛 nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i vo nm 2020, 2025 v 2030 (MW) 2025 6.90% 2030 10.70% Trung b狸nh GHI l 4,5-4,6 kWh / sq. Ngy M Khu v畛c c坦 ti畛m nng cao nh畉t: mi畛n Nam, mi畛n Trung Vi畛t Nam T畛ng s畛 gi畛 c坦 叩nh s叩ng m畉t tr畛i l 1.600 畉n 2.700 gi畛 / nm
Vietnam Solar Khung s動畛n th担ng th動畛ng Lu畉t nh畉m h畛 tr畛 PV v畛i khung o l動畛ng r嘆ng s畉 gi炭p sinh l畛i cao h董n t畛 畉u t動 v c畉i thi畛n c叩c m担 h狸nh t畛 kinh doanh. H畛 tr畛 khung ph叩p l箪 v畛 lu畉t ph叩p (m達 l動畛i, ti棚u chu畉n PPA, vv). C叩c ch動董ng tr狸nh h畛 tr畛 畉u ti棚n 達 動畛c th畛c hi畛n (v鱈 d畛 nh動 HCMC FIT) nh畉m h畛 tr畛 ph叩t tri畛n cho ngnh c担ng nghi畛p 畛a ph動董ng (x但y d畛ng). C叩c bi畛n ph叩p ph叩t tri畛n th畛 tr動畛ng / n但ng cao nng l畛c ti畉p theo (v鱈 d畛 叩nh gi叩 ti畛m nng m叩i nh c畛a Ng但n hng Th畉 gi畛i, GIZ PDP ...) L動畛i K畉t N畛i H畛 th畛ng m叩i M畛c ti棚u 4000 MW (2030) T畛i a C担ng su畉t l畉p 畉t 100 MW 500 kW (without license ) B畉ng gi叩 9,35 US cent / kWh (20 nm PPA, thanh to叩n b畉ng VND, kh担ng 動畛c l畉p ch畛 m畛c) 11,25 USCents / kWh cho ph畉n th畛a s畛 d動 (10 nm, c坦 th畛 m畛 r畛ng) Thanh to叩n kh担ng x叩c 畛nh C叩c ti棚u chu畉n k畉t n畛i kh担ng x叩c 畛nh C叩c 動u 達i kh叩c Mi畛n thu畉 畛i v畛i t畉t c畉 c叩c thi畉t b畛 RE nh畉p kh畉u Mi畛n thu畉 畛i v畛i t畉t c畉 c叩c thi畉t b畛 RE nh畉p kh畉u Vi畛t Nam th担ng qua m畛t th畛 tr動畛ng i畛n RE "m畛t ng動畛i mua" 畛c quy畛n EVN v c叩c c担ng ty thnh vi棚n 動畛c 畛y quy畛n v畉n duy tr狸 quy畛n l畛c trung gian v t畉p h畛p c叩c d畛 叩n nng l動畛ng t叩i t畉o Kh担ng c坦 c董 ch畉 cho PPAs tr畛c ti畉p c畛a c担ng ty
13 Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 20 20 20 DC Capacity (in MWp) 20 21 24 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Return vs Tariff Analysis @ 20 % OL Equity Return 15% 18% 20% Expected Tariff (in $/kWh) 0.0744 0.079 0.084 Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 30 30 30 DC Capacity (in MWp) 30 33 36 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Return vs Tariff Analysis @ 20 % OL Equity Return 15% 18% 20% Expected Tariff (in $/kWh) 0.0750 0.080 0.083 Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 40 40 40 DC Capacity (in MWp) 40 44 48 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Return vs Tariff Analysis @ 20 % OL Equity Return 15% 18% 20% Expected Tariff (in $/kWh) 0.0730 0.078 0.081 Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 10 10 10 DC Capacity (in MWp) 10 11 12 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Project Economics @ tariff of 9.35 cents/kWh EPC Cost (in Mn USD) 7.90 8.30 8.70 EIRR 8.32% 14.11 17.28% PIRR 8.83% 11.30% 12.71% Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 50 50 50 DC Capacity (in MWp) 50 55 60 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Return vs Tariff Analysis @ 20 % OL Equity Return 15% 18% 20% Expected Tariff (in $/kWh) 0.072 0.076 0.079 Vietnam Solar Qu叩 t畉i DC v Ph但n t鱈ch thu h畛i
Your Gateway to Reliable Solar Power Solutions
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Solar Power Development in Vietnam (Language - Vietnamese)

  • 1. Solar Power Development in Vietnam Growing Your Business is Our Business.
  • 2. Ph叩c Th畉o K畛ch b畉n Ton c畉u v畛 Nng l動畛ng v Solar PV Nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i t畛: Schematics v BoS C担ng ngh畛 nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i PV v Accosiate BoS Giai o畉n ph叩t tri畛n d畛 叩n nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i v vai tr嘆 c畛a c叩c b棚n li棚n quan T鱈nh kh畉 thi v 叩nh gi叩 th動董ng m畉i Nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i 畛 Vi畛t Nam Ch鱈nh s叩ch nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i hi畛n t畉i v s畛 ph叩t tri畛n H畛 s董 b畛c x畉 m畉t tr畛i c畛a qu畛c gia 叩nh gi叩 r畛i ro v c叩ch ti畉p c畉n Ph但n t鱈ch ti ch鱈nh
  • 3. Solar PV v k畛ch b畉n ton c畉u v畛 Nng l動畛ng 24% 76% T畛 L畛 CHIA S畉 NHU C畉U I畛N TON C畉U Renewable Non Renewable 1064.00 106.00 13.20 240.00 433.00 4.80 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.001000.001200.00 HYDRO POWER BIO POWER GEOTHERMAL & CSP SOLAR PV WIND POWER CSP NNG L働畛NG TI T畉O TRN TON C畉U 働畛C LP 畉T (GW) Stat Nng l動畛ng t叩i t畉o chi畉m 28,90% c担ng su畉t ph叩t i畛n ton c畉u v 23,70% trong nhu c畉u s畛 d畛ng cu畛i T畛ng c担ng su畉t RE 動畛c l畉p 畉t l ~ 1861 GW cho 畉n th叩ng 1 nm 2016 Tr棚n ton c畉u 148 GW tng th棚m trong nm 2015 17% d但n s畛 th畉 gi畛i v畉n thi畉u i畛n - kho畉ng 1,2 t畛 ng動畛i 40 70 100 138 177 240 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nng l動畛ng Solar PV 働畛C L畉p 畉t THEO c担ng su畉t (GW) Ton c畉u CAGR c畛a Solar PV t動董ng 動董ng ~34.80% YoY trong 6 nm g畉n 但y v x畉p x畛 ~20.26% trong 3 nm tr畛 l畉i China added maximum Solar Capacity of 13.6 GW 83% 17% S畛 D畛NG I畛N TH畉 GI畛I With Access With out Access
  • 4. Solar PV K畛ch b畉n ton c畉u: Nng l動畛ng t叩i t畉o, 畉u t動 & Ph叩t Tri畛n #Source: BNEF new Energy Outlook 2016,,UNEP,Frankfurt School of finance & mgmt., Investment exclude. Large Hydro >50 MW 98.69 84.22 81.91 90.58 105.66 109.64103.69 154.82 146.17 119.06 143.78 161.04 0 50 100 150 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Xu h動畛ng 畉u t動 c畛a i畛n Solar & Gi坦 tr棚n ton c畉u (t畛 USD) Wind Solar 20 21 23 24 25 28 25 25 28 29 45 4815 16 12 12 21 1860 80 75 60 55 60 156 175 152 143 169 195 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 畉u t動 m畛i vo nng l動畛ng t叩i t畉o ph但n lo畉i theo h狸nh th畛c tr棚n ton c畉u Corporate & Govt. R&D VC/PE Public Market Smakl distrubuted capacity Assets Finance 畉u t動 vo Solar PV 達 tng l棚n 12% t畛 nm ti ch鱈nh 14-15 畉n nm ti ch鱈nh 15- 16 Trong nm 畉u t動 ton c畉u vo nng l動畛ng s畉ch l $ 348.9 Bn (+10.80%) 畉u t動 畛 c叩c n動畛c ang ph叩t tri畛n Tng 48% (畉c bi畛t l gi坦 + 56,2% v nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i PV + 47,05% 276.1 317.57 290.7 268.6 315 348.9 2010, 34.0% 2011, 15.0% 2012, -8.5%2013, -7.6% 2014, 17.3% 2015, 10.8% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Xu h動畛ng 畉u t動 ton c畉u (t畛 USD) trong 6 nm qua
  • 5. Solar PV Th担ng Tin C担ng Ngh畛 Solar PV Technology Crystalline Technology Poly Mono Thin film Thin film silicon CIS/CIGS CdTe Tinh th畛 Thin Film C叩c lo畉i v畉t li畛u a tinh th畛 Amorphous Silicon, CdS, CdTe, CIS/ CIGS, etc. Ti棚u Chu畉n Hi畛u su畉t 16.25% to 17.32% 14.50% to 16% k畛 thu畉t Ph叩t tri畛n t畛t Ph叩t tri畛n t畛t Tr畛ng l動畛ng ti棚u chu畉n tr畛ng l動畛ng nh畉(0.1Kg/W) H董i n畉ng (0.17 Kg/W) Hi畛u 畛ng nhi畛t 畛 T叩c 畛ng cao nh畉t c畛a bi畉n 畛i nhi畛t 畛 T叩c 畛ng nh畛 h董n c畛a bi畉n 畛i nhi畛t 畛 chi畉u x畉 動畛c s畛 d畛ng 畉c bi畛t cho c叩c b畛c x畉 th担ng th動畛ng Hi畛u su畉t t畛t h董n v畛i b畛c x畉 khu畉ch t叩n Ti棚u chu畉n ch畉t l動畛ng t ti棚u chu畉n y棚u c畉u h董n Y棚u c畉u nhi畛u ti棚u chu畉n
  • 6. Solar PV Generation Schematics The energy from sunlight gets converted into DC Current on hitting the solar panels. The current so produced is fed into inverter to give AC Current at a low voltage. The transformer connected to the inverter steps up the voltage to an exportable level after which the electricity produced is fed to the grid.
  • 7. Solar PV Balance of Plant www.WorldRef.org B畛 i畛u h嘆a nhi畛t 畛 / bi畉n t畉n H畛p n畛i C叩p DC v AC C担ng su畉t bi畉n t畉n v bi畉n 叩p i畛n B畉ng HT v LT Thi畉t b畛 ch畛ng s辿t C畉u tr炭c g畉n m担-un C董 s畛 c畛a thi畉t b畛 i畛n v theo d探i, bi畉n t畉n v ph嘆ng i畛u khi畛n R達nh tho叩t n動畛c C叩p i畛n T動畛ng ranh gi畛i Ngo畉i vi v 動畛ng n畛i b畛 i畛n t畛 C担ng tr狸nh d但n d畛ng Gi叩m s叩t Gi叩m s叩t SCADA M叩y 畉nh CCTV Tr畉m th畛i ti畉t Chi畉u s叩ng 動畛ng ph畛 R董le v B畛 ng畉t m畉ch B畛 c叩ch ly 動畛ng d但y truy畛n t畉i Th叩p truy畛n Ch畛ng s辿t C叩p n畛i 畉t v d畉i
  • 8. Solar PV Giai o畉n ph叩t tri畛n d畛 叩n Solar & vai tr嘆 c畛a nh 畉u t動 Ti畛n ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Ph但n t鱈ch ti畛n kh畉 thi v畛 th動董ng m畉i c担ng ngh畛 H狸nh thnh c担ng ty X叩c 畛nh 畉t ai K箪 k畉t PPA G坦i ti ch鱈nh Gi畉y ph辿p v gi畉y ph辿p L畛a ch畛n nh th畉u EPC Quy ho畉ch v X但y d畛ng Ho畉t 畛ng L畛a ch畛n nh th畉u O & M Bn giao nh m叩y Doanh thu 90 D 240 D 30 D Stakeholder Developer Government EPC contractor O&M Contractor Lenders Giai o畉n ph叩t tri畛n Ti畛n ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Ti畛n ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Sau khi ph叩t tri畛n Trong qu叩 tr狸nh ph叩t tri畛n Vai tr嘆 v Tr叩ch nhi畛m T鱈nh kh畉 thi tr動畛c Lm vi畛c v畛i C董 quan ch畛c nng B畛 tr鱈 C担ng n畛 / V畛n ch畛 s畛 h畛u 畉u t動 畉t ai Gi畉y ph辿p v gi畉y ph辿p H畛 tr畛 畉u th畉u K箪 k畉t PPA ESCROW di h畉n Ph叩t tri畛n 畉t Mua s畉m thi畉t b畛 Thi畉t k畉, X但y d畛ng v v畉n hnh V畉n hnh v b畉o d動畛ng nh m叩y N畛 Kh畉o s叩t hi畛n tr動畛ng T坦m t畉t v畛 c叩ch th畛c ti畉n hnh 叩nh gi叩 v畛 B畛c x畉, Nng su畉t, Nng l動畛ng v t狸nh tr畉ng 畉t Ph但n t鱈ch so s叩nh c叩c qu畛c gia Ph但n t鱈ch So s叩nh Ch鱈nh s叩ch i畛u ch畛nh ch鱈nh s叩ch kinh doanh L畛a ch畛n c担ng ngh畛 D畛 to叩n chi ph鱈 cho d畛 叩n 叩nh gi叩 r畛i ro v k畉 ho畉ch Ti ch鱈nh d畛 叩n
  • 9. 63% 32% 3% 2% Cost Breakup of Solar Project Solar PV Module BoS Softcost (Design, Management, Financing cost) Contingency Solar PV module share ~63-64% of project cost, but cost of Poly C-Si based module ($/Wp) has been decreased by 80% in 5-6 years SelectionofStates High Solar radiation availability Availability of barren/government/waste land Suitable Policy of State DistrictwiseMetrologicalData Comparison Solar Radiation Temperature Wind Speed Seismic zone Rainfall Humidity TypeofLand Type of Ownership Type of Soil Distance from Sub-Station Power Evacuation Region wise Generation Comparison Solar PV Ph叩t tri畛n d畛 叩n & Ph但n 畛nh chi ph鱈
  • 10. Vietnam Ton c畉nh v畛 Nng l動畛ng Solar v Nng l動畛ng t畉i Vi畛t nam Vietnam Di畛n t鱈ch 331230.80 km Vu担ng D但n s畛 ~94.4 Tri畛u Ngnh kch鱈nh Khai kho叩ng, Nng l動畛ng, S畉n xu畉t, N担ng nghi畛p Thnh Ph畛 Trung 働董ng Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh, Da Nang M担i tr動畛ng kinh doanh T畛c 畛 tng tr動畛ng GDP 6.20% Hng nm Thu畉n ti畛n trong kinh doanh 68 Ch畛 s畛 v畛 m畛c 畛 tham nh滴ng 113 Ti棚u th畛 nng l動畛ng tr棚n 畉u ng動畛i 1200 kWh/ ng動畛i 畉u t動 vo h畉 t畉ng c董 s畛 畛 ph叩t i畛n lm ch畉m l畉i nhu c畉u tng tr動畛ng M畛t trong nh畛ng 畛a i畛m ti畛m nng cho nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i t畛t nh畉t Ti畛m nng l畛n do ch但u l畛c ny c嘆n thi畉u nhu c畉u i畛n c董 b畉n N動畛c ang ph叩t tri畛n nhanh nh畉t 畛 Ch但u T畛 nm 1990 畉n nm 2015 T畛 l畛 i畛n nng cao nh畉t (98%) L畉p 畉t 39 GW ph叩t i畛n (40% Hydro) T畉t c畉 畛u 畉u t動 c担ng khai T畛 nm 2015 tr畛 i V畉n c嘆n ph畉i 畛i m畉t v畛i nhi畛u th叩ch th畛c Kho畉ng c叩ch gi畛a t畛c 畛 tng tr動畛ng kinh t畉 v i畛n An ninh nng l動畛ng v v畉n 畛 EHS Kh担ng 畛 畉u t動 c担ng
  • 11. Vietnam Solar K畉 ho畉ch ph叩t tri畛n nng l動畛ng c坦 s畛a 畛i l畉n VII v Ti畛m nng 2020 2025 2030 Solar 850 4000 12000 Wind 800 2000 6000 Biomass 1000 1500 4000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 MW M畛c ti棚u v畛 nng l動畛ng m畉t tr畛i vo nm 2020, 2025 v 2030 (MW) 2025 6.90% 2030 10.70% Trung b狸nh GHI l 4,5-4,6 kWh / sq. Ngy M Khu v畛c c坦 ti畛m nng cao nh畉t: mi畛n Nam, mi畛n Trung Vi畛t Nam T畛ng s畛 gi畛 c坦 叩nh s叩ng m畉t tr畛i l 1.600 畉n 2.700 gi畛 / nm
  • 12. Vietnam Solar Khung s動畛n th担ng th動畛ng Lu畉t nh畉m h畛 tr畛 PV v畛i khung o l動畛ng r嘆ng s畉 gi炭p sinh l畛i cao h董n t畛 畉u t動 v c畉i thi畛n c叩c m担 h狸nh t畛 kinh doanh. H畛 tr畛 khung ph叩p l箪 v畛 lu畉t ph叩p (m達 l動畛i, ti棚u chu畉n PPA, vv). C叩c ch動董ng tr狸nh h畛 tr畛 畉u ti棚n 達 動畛c th畛c hi畛n (v鱈 d畛 nh動 HCMC FIT) nh畉m h畛 tr畛 ph叩t tri畛n cho ngnh c担ng nghi畛p 畛a ph動董ng (x但y d畛ng). C叩c bi畛n ph叩p ph叩t tri畛n th畛 tr動畛ng / n但ng cao nng l畛c ti畉p theo (v鱈 d畛 叩nh gi叩 ti畛m nng m叩i nh c畛a Ng但n hng Th畉 gi畛i, GIZ PDP ...) L動畛i K畉t N畛i H畛 th畛ng m叩i M畛c ti棚u 4000 MW (2030) T畛i a C担ng su畉t l畉p 畉t 100 MW 500 kW (without license ) B畉ng gi叩 9,35 US cent / kWh (20 nm PPA, thanh to叩n b畉ng VND, kh担ng 動畛c l畉p ch畛 m畛c) 11,25 USCents / kWh cho ph畉n th畛a s畛 d動 (10 nm, c坦 th畛 m畛 r畛ng) Thanh to叩n kh担ng x叩c 畛nh C叩c ti棚u chu畉n k畉t n畛i kh担ng x叩c 畛nh C叩c 動u 達i kh叩c Mi畛n thu畉 畛i v畛i t畉t c畉 c叩c thi畉t b畛 RE nh畉p kh畉u Mi畛n thu畉 畛i v畛i t畉t c畉 c叩c thi畉t b畛 RE nh畉p kh畉u Vi畛t Nam th担ng qua m畛t th畛 tr動畛ng i畛n RE "m畛t ng動畛i mua" 畛c quy畛n EVN v c叩c c担ng ty thnh vi棚n 動畛c 畛y quy畛n v畉n duy tr狸 quy畛n l畛c trung gian v t畉p h畛p c叩c d畛 叩n nng l動畛ng t叩i t畉o Kh担ng c坦 c董 ch畉 cho PPAs tr畛c ti畉p c畛a c担ng ty
  • 13. 13 Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 20 20 20 DC Capacity (in MWp) 20 21 24 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Return vs Tariff Analysis @ 20 % OL Equity Return 15% 18% 20% Expected Tariff (in $/kWh) 0.0744 0.079 0.084 Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 30 30 30 DC Capacity (in MWp) 30 33 36 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Return vs Tariff Analysis @ 20 % OL Equity Return 15% 18% 20% Expected Tariff (in $/kWh) 0.0750 0.080 0.083 Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 40 40 40 DC Capacity (in MWp) 40 44 48 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Return vs Tariff Analysis @ 20 % OL Equity Return 15% 18% 20% Expected Tariff (in $/kWh) 0.0730 0.078 0.081 Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 10 10 10 DC Capacity (in MWp) 10 11 12 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Project Economics @ tariff of 9.35 cents/kWh EPC Cost (in Mn USD) 7.90 8.30 8.70 EIRR 8.32% 14.11 17.28% PIRR 8.83% 11.30% 12.71% Key Assumption 0% DC Overloading 10% Overloading 20% Overloading AC Capacity 50 50 50 DC Capacity (in MWp) 50 55 60 Expected CUF 15.71% 17.27% 18.80% Return vs Tariff Analysis @ 20 % OL Equity Return 15% 18% 20% Expected Tariff (in $/kWh) 0.072 0.076 0.079 Vietnam Solar Qu叩 t畉i DC v Ph但n t鱈ch thu h畛i
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