The document is a collection of slides presented by John Adams on various topics related to risk perception and management. It discusses different types of risks and how they are perceived, the concept of a "risk thermostat" where people balance risk-taking behaviors, and various cognitive biases that can influence risk perception. It also provides examples to illustrate concepts like framing effects, different cultural approaches to risk, and challenges in risk communication and management. The document contains a wide range of topics and examples rather than focusing on a single theme.
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The Public Perception of Risk
1. The Public Perception of Risk
Framing Devices for Thinking about Risk
MSc Environmental Technology
Imperial College
14 October 2013
www.john-adams.co.uk
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
2. The Public Perception of Risk
Framing Devices for Thinking about Risk
MSc Environmental Technology
Imperial College
14 October 2013
www.john-adams.co.uk
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
4. Different kinds of Risk
Perceived
through
science
Perceived
directly
Virtual
risk
5. The Risk Thermostat
Risk compensation
Propensity
to take risks
Rewards
Balancing
behaviour
Perception
of risks
Accidents
6. A typology of bias
Fatalist
Hierarchist
Individualist
Egalitarian
7. Different kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
scientific
Perceived
through
training to
science
understand
Perceived
directly
e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving, car
Virtual
risk
Scientists don¡¯t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
¡.
8. Different kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
scientific
Perceived
through
training to
science
understand
Perceived
directly
e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving a car
Virtual
risk
Scientists don¡¯t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
¡.
9. Managing Health & Safety: what works?
and what doesn¡¯t?
Safety on the Edge
Melbourne 27-28 June 2013
Perth 3-4 July
Brisbane 8-9 July
www.john-adams.co.uk
john.adams@ucl.ac.uk
11. Different kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
scientific
Perceived
through
training to
science
understand
Perceived
directly
e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving a car
Virtual
risk
Scientists don¡¯t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
thalidomide ¡.
12. Different kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
Perceived
scientific
through
training to
science
understand
Perceived
directly
e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving, car
Virtual
risk
Scientists don¡¯t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
¡.
13. Risk Management: it¡¯s not rocket science
It¡¯s more complicated
Framing devices for thinking about risk
Grant's London Investment Conference
February 24, 2011
The Dorchester
London
15. Disclaimer
¡. Any decisions you make based on information from this
presentation are your sole responsibility.
Disclaimer
These slides do not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to
buy a security¡ ... Outlooks or assumptions should not be
construed to be indicative of the actual events which occur.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this commentary are the personal views of
xxx ¡.
Investment concepts mentioned in this commentary may be
unsuitable ¡ Certain assumptions may have been made ¡. No
representation is made that any indicated returns will be achieved.
¡ This commentary does not constitute an offer to sell any security
or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security.
16. 10 Stocks To Last The Decade
¡°A few major trends will likely shape the next ten years.
Here's a buy-and-forget portfolio to capitalize on them.¡±
Fortune August 14, 2000
¡°For help in finding the stocks best positioned to
capitalize on these four trends, we sought out some of
the top stock pickers in the country-- ¡. We also did
our own due diligence by poring through financial
statements, talking to companies, and giving their
products a test run. The result: ten stocks that we think
will be winners over the coming decade.¡±
24. Bottom loop bias
Propensity to
take risks
Rewards
Reducing risks, protecting people
Balancing
behaviour
Perception
of risks
Accidents
25. Top loop bias
Moral Hazard
¡decisions on compensation and other actions taken and
not taken, particularly at banks that rapidly lost a lot of
Propensity to
Rewards
shareholder value, look self-serving and greedy in
take risks
hindsight.
Balancing
behaviour
Perception
of risks
Accidents
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14049013/Lloyd-Blankfein-Speech-to-the-Council-of-Institutional-Investors-April-7-2009
29. Designing for high risk environments
Reinventing the Hospital: Europe¡¯s Challenge
EuHPN 2013 Workshop: Budapest 7-9 October
Budapest, 7 October
www.john-adams.co.uk
john.adams@ucl.ac.uk
41. CAUTION
These plants are covered
in sharp spikes that may
puncture the skin if touched
DO NOT HANDLE
Seen in the entrance to the Health and Safety Laboratory, Buxton
¡°[People should] focus on real risks ¨C those that cause real harm
and suffering ¨C and stop concentrating effort on trivial risks
and petty health and safety.¡±
Bill Callaghan, Chair of the HSC (overseer of the Health and Safety Executive) - 22 August 2006
50. The risk thermostat
Propensity to
take risks
Rewards
Money, power,
love, glory, food,
sex, rushes of
adrenaline,
control ...
Balancing
behaviour
Perception
of risks
Accidents
Money, health,
life, status,
self-esteem,
embarrassment,
jail, loss of control ...
59. No children
No swings
Rubberized matting
barriers
¡°The swings are packed away at night because kids might climb
the fence and use them unsupervised and hurt themselves.¡±
60. The lorry driver and the cyclist
Propensity to
take risks
Rewards
Propensity to
take risks
Balancing
behaviour
Balancing
behaviour
Perception
of risks
Perception
of risks
Rewards
Accidents
Accidents
61. Propensity to
take risks
Rewards
Propensity to
take risks
Balancing
behaviour
Rewards
Balancing
behaviour
Perception
of risks
Perception
of risks
Lawyer on
contingency fee
Insurer
Accidents
Propensity to
take risks
Rewards
Balancing
behaviour
Perception
of risks
Accidents
Accidents
62. 69% of Americans believe in angels. 46% have their own guardian angel.
77. Annual Rate
Kensington High Street: Pedestrian Accidents
Average decrease after removing pedestrian barriers = 60.5%
4
3
2
1
0
Edwardes Edwardes Earl's Court Phillimore Argyll Road Tube Derry Street Kensington Old Court Ken Palace Palace
Square Square
Road
Gdns
Station
Church
Place
Gdns
Avenue
(west)
(east)
Street
Before After
78. "This house believes that helmets
should be mandatory for all cycling
children"
Debate
College of Emergency Medicine
Imperial College London
17 September 2009
Opposing:
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
www.john-adams.co.uk
79. Are the Dutch as mad as the English?
The SENSE Research School for SocioEconomic and Natural Sciences of the
Environment
Amsterdam 12 May 2006
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~jadams/publish.htm
88. there were 23% more
vehicles coming within 1m of
the bicycle when a helmet
was being worn
passing traf?c gave
signi?cantly more leeway
Walker, I. (2007). Drivers overtaking bicyclists:
Objective data on the effects of riding position,
helmet use, vehicle type and apparent gender.
http://drianwalker.com/o
Accident Analysis and Prevention, 39, 417-425.
90. How much can be attributed to:
the work of engineers?
the work of legislators?
change in road user behaviour?
Hungary 2010 (4 X)
UK 2010
91. Safer vehicles?
40 People Burnt To Death Along
Lagos-ibadan Expressway On
Sunday 16th August August 16, 2010
93. Better roads?
(a) Indices of fatalities and injuries in Ontario by month, 1970-79. The average
of all Januaries (month1) is set equal to 100.
(b) An index of road accident severity for Ontario by month, 1970-79.
94. Better laws?
Legislation for road safety can be defined as ¡°comprehensive¡±
if the existing national and sub-national road safety laws
include the following key laws:
1) a national speed limit law
2) a national drink-driving law
3) a national motorcycle helmet law
4) a national seat-belt law (front and rear seats)
http://blogs.bmj.com/injury-prevention/2013/04/16/global-progress-towards-comprehensive-legislation-for-road-safety/
98. ? ¡°By January 2008, 25 years after the introduction of the law, front seat belts had
saved over 60,000 lives in Great Britain.¡±
? ¡°By January 2008, 25 years after the introduction of the law requiring car drivers and
front seat passengers to wear seat belts (if fitted), it was estimated that front seat
belts had saved over 60,000 lives in Great Britain.¡±
? ¡°Seat belt laws increase seat belt use, and so reduce death and injury. 25 years after
the first law requiring seat be to be used, it was estimated that front seat belts had
saved over 60,000 lives in Great Britain.¡±
107. Managing transport risks: what works?
PACTS
House of Commons
5 June 2-13
www.john-adams.co.uk
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
http://john-adams.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Management-of-the-risks-of-transport2.pdf
108. ¡°Change has to take root in people¡¯s minds before it
can be legislated.¡±
Michael Sandel
109. The main headline in the Daily Mail on 9 May reads
¡°?90 fine if you¡¯re texting at the wheel:
Minister warns of safety crackdown¡±
Highway Loss Data Institute News Release - September 28, 2010
¡°Texting bans don't reduce crashes; effects are slight crash increases¡±
http://www.iihs.org/news/rss/pr092810.html
#16: I have been fascinated by problems of risk and risk management for more than three decades.Over the years, being an academic, I have discussed risk with psychologists and sociologists and anthropologists and engineers and philosophers. I have also discussed their risk management problems with the Health and Safety Executive, and doctors and National Health Service Administrators, with foresters, highway engineers and project managers and forensic psychiatrists. And also with the Navy, the police and MI6 ¨C MI6 was the closest I got to problems of financial risk management - they paid me in used bank notes, and said if I decided to declare it to the Inland Revenue I should say it came from the Foreign Office.Until fairly recently I have shied away from financial risk. Not having a PhD in mathematics, I found your quants, the people you sometimes call ¡°rocket scientists¡±, intimidating. Also I wasn¡¯t very good at speaking acronym ¨C the language of your trade. But it has become apparent since the breaking of the financial crisis through which we are now living that many fluent speakers of acronym also didn¡¯t understand what the rocket scientists were up to.So, emboldened by this discovery, I accepted Jim Grant¡¯s invitation to explore with you territory that you might have in common with MI6 and the psychiatrists ¨C and to see whether you might have risk framing devices in common.I started my preparation by looking at some presentations to previous Grant¡¯s conferences. I was intrigued by the number that ended with a disclaimer.
#17: UBS Trading FloorWith 1,400 seats, 2,000 computers and 5,000 monitors, the UBS trading floor is noted by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest single trading floor in the world. The floor is home to traders, sales traders, quants, technology support, executives and others among its various groups, which include fixed income, commodities, currencies, money markets, derivatives, equities, international trading, algorithmic trading, direct market access, program trading and more. UBS manages more than 1,689,000 transactions a day. The firm deals in almost every asset class and trades across almost every region. The photo gallery below will take you through the mammoth trading floor, offering both big-picture photos to illustrate the size of the floor as well as close-ups of some of the trading desks to offer more detail on the technology UBS uses. A special thank you to UBS for allowing us to feature their floor. trading places:The Worlds Largest Trading Floor at UBS in Stamford Connecticut?"The largest securities trading floor in the world. The 103,000 square-foot operation has 40 foot arched ceiling freeing it of columns or walls. The size of three football fields, it is home to 1,400 traders and staff who handle about $1 trillion worth of transactions a day. It is roughly 227 feet wide by 410 feet long. UBS officials have boasted that a 747 jet could turn around in it"With 1,400 seats, 2,000 computers and 5,000 monitors, the 103,000 square-foot facility is noted by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest single trading floor in the world. The floor is home to traders, sales traders, quants, technology support, executives and others among its various groups, which include fixed income, commodities, currencies, money markets, derivatives, equities, international trading, algorithmic trading, direct market access, program trading and more. UBS manages more than 1,689,000 transactions a day. The firm deals in almost every asset class and trades across almost every region.UBS Investment Bank's offices in Stamford, Connecticut. At roughly the size of two American football fields it is the largest trading floor in the world. Following an expansion in 2002, the trading floor covers 103,000-square-foot (9,600?m2) with 40-foot (12?m) arched ceilings. Over US$1?trillion in assets are traded here every trading day. In June 2011, it was announced that UBS was considering moving its North American headquarters back to New York City, and that the bank was looking at office space in Midtown and in the rebuilt World Trade Center[12]
#20: Broadcom, enron and Nortel all bankrupt. The head of broadcom ¨C bernieebbers ¨CI in jail, and the head or Enron, Ken lay would be if he hadn¡¯t died.
#34: These pictures of ship breaking in Bangladesh provide dramatic reminders that different health and safety standards operate at different times and in different parts of the world.http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://arkiblog.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2006/08/12.jpg&imgrefurl=http://arkiblog.net/blog/2006/08/12/largest-structures-destroyed/&h=290&w=436&sz=87&hl=en&start=16&um=1&tbnid=F567Sf9JSr0YIM:&tbnh=84&tbnw=126&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dship%2Bbreaking%2Bbangladesh%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26sa%3DN
#35: A floating iron mine lands on the beach and the third world miners set to without helmets, safety shoes, gloves or goggles apparently working under a non-existent safety regime.It would be interesting to know how the accident rates for this industry in the 21st century compare with those of high steel workers in New York in 1932 or those of roughnecks in the oil industry at the beginning of he 20th century. Sadly such comparators don¡¯t exist.
#36: But one might speculate that this man coming off work is a pedestrian who does not own a car, and that the owner of the ship in the background owns a car and drives it with the same concern for the welfare of pedestrians as is manifest in his concern for his workers.
#66: UBS Trading FloorWith 1,400 seats, 2,000 computers and 5,000 monitors, the UBS trading floor is noted by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest single trading floor in the world. The floor is home to traders, sales traders, quants, technology support, executives and others among its various groups, which include fixed income, commodities, currencies, money markets, derivatives, equities, international trading, algorithmic trading, direct market access, program trading and more. UBS manages more than 1,689,000 transactions a day. The firm deals in almost every asset class and trades across almost every region. The photo gallery below will take you through the mammoth trading floor, offering both big-picture photos to illustrate the size of the floor as well as close-ups of some of the trading desks to offer more detail on the technology UBS uses. A special thank you to UBS for allowing us to feature their floor. trading places:The Worlds Largest Trading Floor at UBS in Stamford Connecticut?"The largest securities trading floor in the world. The 103,000 square-foot operation has 40 foot arched ceiling freeing it of columns or walls. The size of three football fields, it is home to 1,400 traders and staff who handle about $1 trillion worth of transactions a day. It is roughly 227 feet wide by 410 feet long. UBS officials have boasted that a 747 jet could turn around in it"With 1,400 seats, 2,000 computers and 5,000 monitors, the 103,000 square-foot facility is noted by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest single trading floor in the world. The floor is home to traders, sales traders, quants, technology support, executives and others among its various groups, which include fixed income, commodities, currencies, money markets, derivatives, equities, international trading, algorithmic trading, direct market access, program trading and more. UBS manages more than 1,689,000 transactions a day. The firm deals in almost every asset class and trades across almost every region.UBS Investment Bank's offices in Stamford, Connecticut. At roughly the size of two American football fields it is the largest trading floor in the world. Following an expansion in 2002, the trading floor covers 103,000-square-foot (9,600?m2) with 40-foot (12?m) arched ceilings. Over US$1?trillion in assets are traded here every trading day. In June 2011, it was announced that UBS was considering moving its North American headquarters back to New York City, and that the bank was looking at office space in Midtown and in the rebuilt World Trade Center[12]