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The Public Perception of Risk

Framing Devices for Thinking about Risk
MSc Environmental Technology
Imperial College
14 October 2013
www.john-adams.co.uk
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
The Public Perception of Risk

Framing Devices for Thinking about Risk
MSc Environmental Technology
Imperial College
14 October 2013
www.john-adams.co.uk
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
Framing Devices
for Thinking about
Perceptions of Risk
Different kinds of Risk

Perceived
through
science

Perceived
directly

Virtual
risk
The Risk Thermostat

Risk compensation

Propensity
to take risks

Rewards

Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Accidents
A typology of bias

Fatalist

Hierarchist

Individualist

Egalitarian
Different kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
scientific
Perceived
through
training to
science
understand

Perceived
directly

e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving, car

Virtual
risk

Scientists don¡¯t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
¡­.
Different kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
scientific
Perceived
through
training to
science
understand

Perceived
directly

e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving a car

Virtual
risk

Scientists don¡¯t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
¡­.
Managing Health & Safety: what works?
and what doesn¡¯t?
Safety on the Edge
Melbourne 27-28 June 2013
Perth 3-4 July
Brisbane 8-9 July
www.john-adams.co.uk
john.adams@ucl.ac.uk
The Public Perception of Risk
Different kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
scientific
Perceived
through
training to
science
understand

Perceived
directly

e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving a car

Virtual
risk

Scientists don¡¯t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
thalidomide ¡­.
Different kinds of Risk
e.g. cholera: need
a microscope to
see it and a
Perceived
scientific
through
training to
science
understand

Perceived
directly

e.g. climbing
a tree, riding
a bike, driving, car

Virtual
risk

Scientists don¡¯t
know or cannot
agree: e.g.
BSE/vCJD,
global
warming,
low-level
radiation,
pesticide
residues,
HRT, mobile
phones,
passive smoking
¡­.
Risk Management: it¡¯s not rocket science
It¡¯s more complicated

Framing devices for thinking about risk
Grant's London Investment Conference
February 24, 2011
The Dorchester
London
The Public Perception of Risk
Disclaimer
¡­. Any decisions you make based on information from this
presentation are your sole responsibility.
Disclaimer
These slides do not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to
buy a security¡­ ... Outlooks or assumptions should not be
construed to be indicative of the actual events which occur.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this commentary are the personal views of
xxx ¡­.
Investment concepts mentioned in this commentary may be
unsuitable ¡­ Certain assumptions may have been made ¡­. No
representation is made that any indicated returns will be achieved.
¡­ This commentary does not constitute an offer to sell any security
or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security.
10 Stocks To Last The Decade
¡°A few major trends will likely shape the next ten years.
Here's a buy-and-forget portfolio to capitalize on them.¡±
Fortune August 14, 2000
¡°For help in finding the stocks best positioned to
capitalize on these four trends, we sought out some of
the top stock pickers in the country-- ¡­. We also did
our own due diligence by poring through financial
statements, talking to companies, and giving their
products a test run. The result: ten stocks that we think
will be winners over the coming decade.¡±
?Genentech
?Oracle
?Charles Schwab
?Univision
?Morgan Stanley
?Viacom
?Broadcom
?Nokia
?Nortel
?Enron

By year-end 2002, the 10 stocks had declined on average
80 percent. http://www.richmondhk.com/news_mutual_funds.php
A successful risk manager

Management of directly
perceptible risks is
? a balancing act
? instinctive
? intuitive
? modified by culture
Propensity to
take risks

Rewards

Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Accidents
Risk thermostat with perceptual filters

Propensity to
take risks

Rewards

Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Accidents
A typology of bias

Fatalist

Hierarchist

Individualist

Egalitarian
Fatalist

Hierarchist

Individualist

Egalitarian
Prozac

Fatalist

Individualist

Lithium

Alcohol?

Hierarchist

Egalitarian

Chlorpromazine
Bottom loop bias
Propensity to
take risks

Rewards

Reducing risks, protecting people
Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Accidents
Top loop bias

Moral Hazard

¡­decisions on compensation and other actions taken and
not taken, particularly at banks that rapidly lost a lot of
Propensity to
Rewards
shareholder value, look self-serving and greedy in
take risks
hindsight.

Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Accidents

http://www.scribd.com/doc/14049013/Lloyd-Blankfein-Speech-to-the-Council-of-Institutional-Investors-April-7-2009
The Public Perception of Risk
3 fatalities per year
Running with the bulls in Pamplona

1 fatality every 7 years
Designing for high risk environments

Reinventing the Hospital: Europe¡¯s Challenge
EuHPN 2013 Workshop: Budapest 7-9 October
Budapest, 7 October
www.john-adams.co.uk
john.adams@ucl.ac.uk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
http://www.edwardburtynsky.com/WORKS/Ships/Shipbreaking/Shipbreaking_04.jpg
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
CAUTION
These plants are covered
in sharp spikes that may
puncture the skin if touched

DO NOT HANDLE

Seen in the entrance to the Health and Safety Laboratory, Buxton
¡°[People should] focus on real risks ¨C those that cause real harm
and suffering ¨C and stop concentrating effort on trivial risks
and petty health and safety.¡±
Bill Callaghan, Chair of the HSC (overseer of the Health and Safety Executive) - 22 August 2006
Drake
Gilbert
Saxton
Davis
Hakluyt
Wright
Hudson
Baffin
Halley
Dampier
Bruce
Cook
Ramsden
Roy
Mackenzie
Rennell
Vancouver
Park

Clapperton
Barrow
Lander
Parry
Colby
Back
Ross
Biscoe
Franklin
Stuart
Eyre
Galton
Everest
Hooker
Bates
Burton
Speke
Murchison

Livingstone
Baker
Kirk
Godwin Austen
Clarke
Markham
Yule
Stanley
Doughty
Thomson
Murray
Curzon
Scott
Shackleton
Keltie
Gertrude Bell
Hogarth
Drake
Gilbert
Saxton
Davis
Hakluyt
Wright
Hudson
Baffin
Halley
Dampier
Bruce
Cook
Ramsden
Roy
Mackenzie
Rennell
Vancouver
Park

Clapperton
Barrow
Lander
Parry
Colby
Back
Ross
Biscoe
Franklin
Stuart
Eyre
Galton
Everest
Hooker
Bates
Burton
Speke
Murchison

Livingstone
Baker
Kirk
Godwin Austen
Clarke
Markham
Yule
Stanley
Doughty
Thomson
Murray
Curzon
Scott
Shackleton
Keltie
Gertrude Bell
Hogarth
The death of Captain Cook
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The risk thermostat

Propensity to
take risks

Rewards

Money, power,
love, glory, food,
sex, rushes of
adrenaline,
control ...

Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Accidents

Money, health,
life, status,
self-esteem,
embarrassment,
jail, loss of control ...
Pure ¨C rock
climbing
Self
controlled

Risk

Imposed

Cycling
Plane
Train

Nature
Economy

Mount
Etna

Benign

Impersonal

Diminished
control
No
control

Voluntary

Applied ¨C
driving

Mobile phone
masts

Profit
Motivated

GMOs

Malign

Acceptability
of risk

Murder
Al Qaida

Risk
Amplification
www.acm.ab.ca/safety/images/ fault-tree.gif
foresight

the present
bad luck
hindsight

foresight

the present
bad luck
hindsight

foresight

the present
bad luck
hindsight

foresight

the present
Culpable negligence
bad luck
hindsight

foresight
< 1 : 10,000,000

=1:1
the present
Culpable negligence

bad luck
hindsight

risk assessment

the present
Culpable negligence
No children
No swings

Rubberized matting

barriers

¡°The swings are packed away at night because kids might climb
the fence and use them unsupervised and hurt themselves.¡±
The lorry driver and the cyclist
Propensity to
take risks

Rewards
Propensity to
take risks

Balancing
behaviour

Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Perception
of risks

Rewards

Accidents

Accidents
Propensity to
take risks

Rewards
Propensity to
take risks

Balancing
behaviour

Rewards

Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Perception
of risks

Lawyer on
contingency fee
Insurer

Accidents

Propensity to
take risks

Rewards

Balancing
behaviour

Perception
of risks

Accidents

Accidents
69% of Americans believe in angels. 46% have their own guardian angel.
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
Walking/Cycling Initiatives

Source: www.rbkc.gov.uk
Annual Rate

Kensington High Street: Pedestrian Accidents
Average decrease after removing pedestrian barriers = 60.5%

4
3
2
1
0
Edwardes Edwardes Earl's Court Phillimore Argyll Road Tube Derry Street Kensington Old Court Ken Palace Palace
Square Square
Road
Gdns
Station
Church
Place
Gdns
Avenue
(west)
(east)
Street

Before After
"This house believes that helmets
should be mandatory for all cycling
children"
Debate
College of Emergency Medicine
Imperial College London
17 September 2009
Opposing:
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
www.john-adams.co.uk
Are the Dutch as mad as the English?

The SENSE Research School for SocioEconomic and Natural Sciences of the
Environment
Amsterdam 12 May 2006
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/~jadams/publish.htm
http://hembrow.eu/cycling/photos.html
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
http://hembrow.blogspot.com/2008/08/everyone-cycles.html

http://steco.nl/pages/consumer/index.php?taal=nl&page=Producten&cid=12&pid
=20
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
there were 23% more
vehicles coming within 1m of
the bicycle when a helmet
was being worn

passing traf?c gave
signi?cantly more leeway

Walker, I. (2007). Drivers overtaking bicyclists:
Objective data on the effects of riding position,
helmet use, vehicle type and apparent gender.
http://drianwalker.com/o
Accident Analysis and Prevention, 39, 417-425.
8000

2000

0
Togo
Ethiopia
Liberia
Bangladesh
Sierra Leone
Pakistan
Nepal
Kenya
Benin
Afghanistan
Zambia
Senegal
Madagascar
Sudan
Republic of the Congo
Papua New Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Nigeria
Angola
Peru
India
Ghana
Indonesia
South Africa
Egypt
United Arab Emirates
Chile
Brazil
Russia
Argentina
Malaysia
China
United States of¡­
Australia
United Kingdom
Japan
Iceland
Malta

fatalities per 100,000 motor vehicles

16000

14000

2700 X

12000

10000

1200 X

6000

4000

1042 = 204 X
5.1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate
How much can be attributed to:
the work of engineers?
the work of legislators?
change in road user behaviour?

Hungary 2010 (4 X)
UK 2010
Safer vehicles?
40 People Burnt To Death Along
Lagos-ibadan Expressway On
Sunday 16th August August 16, 2010
The Public Perception of Risk
Better roads?

(a) Indices of fatalities and injuries in Ontario by month, 1970-79. The average
of all Januaries (month1) is set equal to 100.
(b) An index of road accident severity for Ontario by month, 1970-79.
Better laws?
Legislation for road safety can be defined as ¡°comprehensive¡±
if the existing national and sub-national road safety laws
include the following key laws:
1) a national speed limit law
2) a national drink-driving law
3) a national motorcycle helmet law
4) a national seat-belt law (front and rear seats)
http://blogs.bmj.com/injury-prevention/2013/04/16/global-progress-towards-comprehensive-legislation-for-road-safety/
Seat belts

UK 2010
The Public Perception of Risk
60000 lives saved over 25 years = 2400 per year
? ¡°By January 2008, 25 years after the introduction of the law, front seat belts had
saved over 60,000 lives in Great Britain.¡±
? ¡°By January 2008, 25 years after the introduction of the law requiring car drivers and
front seat passengers to wear seat belts (if fitted), it was estimated that front seat
belts had saved over 60,000 lives in Great Britain.¡±
? ¡°Seat belt laws increase seat belt use, and so reduce death and injury. 25 years after
the first law requiring seat be to be used, it was estimated that front seat belts had
saved over 60,000 lives in Great Britain.¡±
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
The Public Perception of Risk
http://john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/08/yet-more-myth-inflation/
2400
http://www.john-adams.co.uk/2009/09/16/seat-belts-again-2/
http://john-adams.co.uk/2009/11/05/seat-belts-another-look-at-the-data/
www.snowdoniamontaineering.com
Managing transport risks: what works?

PACTS
House of Commons
5 June 2-13
www.john-adams.co.uk
John.Adams@UCL.ac.uk
http://john-adams.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Management-of-the-risks-of-transport2.pdf
¡°Change has to take root in people¡¯s minds before it
can be legislated.¡±
Michael Sandel
The main headline in the Daily Mail on 9 May reads
¡°?90 fine if you¡¯re texting at the wheel:
Minister warns of safety crackdown¡±
Highway Loss Data Institute News Release - September 28, 2010
¡°Texting bans don't reduce crashes; effects are slight crash increases¡±

http://www.iihs.org/news/rss/pr092810.html
Risk management: where are the keys?

More Related Content

The Public Perception of Risk

Editor's Notes

  • #16: I have been fascinated by problems of risk and risk management for more than three decades.Over the years, being an academic, I have discussed risk with psychologists and sociologists and anthropologists and engineers and philosophers. I have also discussed their risk management problems with the Health and Safety Executive, and doctors and National Health Service Administrators, with foresters, highway engineers and project managers and forensic psychiatrists. And also with the Navy, the police and MI6 ¨C MI6 was the closest I got to problems of financial risk management - they paid me in used bank notes, and said if I decided to declare it to the Inland Revenue I should say it came from the Foreign Office.Until fairly recently I have shied away from financial risk. Not having a PhD in mathematics, I found your quants, the people you sometimes call ¡°rocket scientists¡±, intimidating. Also I wasn¡¯t very good at speaking acronym ¨C the language of your trade. But it has become apparent since the breaking of the financial crisis through which we are now living that many fluent speakers of acronym also didn¡¯t understand what the rocket scientists were up to.So, emboldened by this discovery, I accepted Jim Grant¡¯s invitation to explore with you territory that you might have in common with MI6 and the psychiatrists ¨C and to see whether you might have risk framing devices in common.I started my preparation by looking at some presentations to previous Grant¡¯s conferences. I was intrigued by the number that ended with a disclaimer.
  • #17: UBS Trading FloorWith 1,400 seats, 2,000 computers and 5,000 monitors, the UBS trading floor is noted by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest single trading floor in the world. The floor is home to traders, sales traders, quants, technology support, executives and others among its various groups, which include fixed income, commodities, currencies, money markets, derivatives, equities, international trading, algorithmic trading, direct market access, program trading and more. UBS manages more than 1,689,000 transactions a day. The firm deals in almost every asset class and trades across almost every region. The photo gallery below will take you through the mammoth trading floor, offering both big-picture photos to illustrate the size of the floor as well as close-ups of some of the trading desks to offer more detail on the technology UBS uses. A special thank you to UBS for allowing us to feature their floor. trading places:The Worlds Largest Trading Floor at UBS in Stamford Connecticut?&quot;The largest securities trading floor in the world. The 103,000 square-foot operation has 40 foot arched ceiling freeing it of columns or walls. The size of three football fields, it is home to 1,400 traders and staff who handle about $1 trillion worth of transactions a day. It is roughly 227 feet wide by 410 feet long. UBS officials have boasted that a 747 jet could turn around in it&quot;With 1,400 seats, 2,000 computers and 5,000 monitors, the 103,000 square-foot facility is noted by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest single trading floor in the world. The floor is home to traders, sales traders, quants, technology support, executives and others among its various groups, which include fixed income, commodities, currencies, money markets, derivatives, equities, international trading, algorithmic trading, direct market access, program trading and more. UBS manages more than 1,689,000 transactions a day. The firm deals in almost every asset class and trades across almost every region.UBS Investment Bank&apos;s offices in Stamford, Connecticut. At roughly the size of two American football fields it is the largest trading floor in the world. Following an expansion in 2002, the trading floor covers 103,000-square-foot (9,600?m2) with 40-foot (12?m) arched ceilings. Over US$1?trillion in assets are traded here every trading day. In June 2011, it was announced that UBS was considering moving its North American headquarters back to New York City, and that the bank was looking at office space in Midtown and in the rebuilt World Trade Center[12]
  • #20: Broadcom, enron and Nortel all bankrupt. The head of broadcom ¨C bernieebbers ¨CI in jail, and the head or Enron, Ken lay would be if he hadn¡¯t died.
  • #30: Running since 1911
  • #31: Running since 1910
  • #34: These pictures of ship breaking in Bangladesh provide dramatic reminders that different health and safety standards operate at different times and in different parts of the world.http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://arkiblog.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2006/08/12.jpg&amp;imgrefurl=http://arkiblog.net/blog/2006/08/12/largest-structures-destroyed/&amp;h=290&amp;w=436&amp;sz=87&amp;hl=en&amp;start=16&amp;um=1&amp;tbnid=F567Sf9JSr0YIM:&amp;tbnh=84&amp;tbnw=126&amp;prev=/images%3Fq%3Dship%2Bbreaking%2Bbangladesh%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26sa%3DN
  • #35: A floating iron mine lands on the beach and the third world miners set to without helmets, safety shoes, gloves or goggles apparently working under a non-existent safety regime.It would be interesting to know how the accident rates for this industry in the 21st century compare with those of high steel workers in New York in 1932 or those of roughnecks in the oil industry at the beginning of he 20th century. Sadly such comparators don¡¯t exist.
  • #36: But one might speculate that this man coming off work is a pedestrian who does not own a car, and that the owner of the ship in the background owns a car and drives it with the same concern for the welfare of pedestrians as is manifest in his concern for his workers.
  • #66: UBS Trading FloorWith 1,400 seats, 2,000 computers and 5,000 monitors, the UBS trading floor is noted by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest single trading floor in the world. The floor is home to traders, sales traders, quants, technology support, executives and others among its various groups, which include fixed income, commodities, currencies, money markets, derivatives, equities, international trading, algorithmic trading, direct market access, program trading and more. UBS manages more than 1,689,000 transactions a day. The firm deals in almost every asset class and trades across almost every region. The photo gallery below will take you through the mammoth trading floor, offering both big-picture photos to illustrate the size of the floor as well as close-ups of some of the trading desks to offer more detail on the technology UBS uses. A special thank you to UBS for allowing us to feature their floor. trading places:The Worlds Largest Trading Floor at UBS in Stamford Connecticut?&quot;The largest securities trading floor in the world. The 103,000 square-foot operation has 40 foot arched ceiling freeing it of columns or walls. The size of three football fields, it is home to 1,400 traders and staff who handle about $1 trillion worth of transactions a day. It is roughly 227 feet wide by 410 feet long. UBS officials have boasted that a 747 jet could turn around in it&quot;With 1,400 seats, 2,000 computers and 5,000 monitors, the 103,000 square-foot facility is noted by the Guinness Book of World Records as the largest single trading floor in the world. The floor is home to traders, sales traders, quants, technology support, executives and others among its various groups, which include fixed income, commodities, currencies, money markets, derivatives, equities, international trading, algorithmic trading, direct market access, program trading and more. UBS manages more than 1,689,000 transactions a day. The firm deals in almost every asset class and trades across almost every region.UBS Investment Bank&apos;s offices in Stamford, Connecticut. At roughly the size of two American football fields it is the largest trading floor in the world. Following an expansion in 2002, the trading floor covers 103,000-square-foot (9,600?m2) with 40-foot (12?m) arched ceilings. Over US$1?trillion in assets are traded here every trading day. In June 2011, it was announced that UBS was considering moving its North American headquarters back to New York City, and that the bank was looking at office space in Midtown and in the rebuilt World Trade Center[12]
  • #92: Moldova 108
  • #93: Hungary 2010 345 veh/1000UK 2010 519veh/1000UK 1987 388 veh/1000
  • #94: Nigeria has them all
  • #98: How
  • #108: 1932 6.5:1
  • #112: California, washington, Minnesota, Louisiana