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The Future of Mobile Development
Julie Ask, VP, Principal Analyst
@julieask
Jeffrey Hammond, VP, Principal Analyst
@jhammond
May 22, 2013

3 Entire contents © 2010 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Source: Flickr (http://www.flickr.com/photos/sashawolff/3793206523/sizes/l/)
9/12 400 M+ iOS devices sold to date
Over 700M smart phones sold worldwide in 2012
1/13 Samsung Galaxy SIII: 96 million, iPhone 5: 54 million
5/13 Over 900 million total Android devices
The Mobile Shift is upon us…

Mobile devices drive ~ 15% of web traffic
Source: Adobe Digital Index (http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/digital-index/)

Mobile phones have accelerated the reach of information and
services more than any other innovation
< 1800’s 1800’s 1900’s
Billion
s
Million
s
Thousa
nds
Commu
nity
2000’s
TIME
REACH(ACCESS)
Paper
Radio
Train
Car
Phone
Internet +
Broadband
TV
Mobile Phones
with Internet
Access
Telegraph
Mail

© 2013 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 6
Key Questions
› What are the key trends in mobile?
› How will mobile development evolve?
› How will mobile disrupt existing business
models?
› What steps should business leaders and
developers take to capitalize?

© 2012 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited
Mobile Trends
1. Mobile platforms will be the catalyst for the next
generation of connected experiences
2. Tablet commerce will outpace mobile commerce, but
the comparison is irrelevant
3. Sophisticated analytics wrapped around big data will
power next generation, smart apps
4. Mobile will play a leading role in engaging consumers
in emerging markets

1. Mobile platforms are the catalyst for
new, connected experiences
Consumer
Platforms

2. Tablet and phone use case will diverge

Tablets are primarily used at home while
smartphones are used everywhere

Today
Future
Track success
relative to
objectives.
Use analytics to
drive consumer-
oriented results
through relevancy.
3. Analytics wrapped around contextual data will
power next-gen apps

–2 days
• Change reservation
• Reserve seat
• View reservations
–2 hr
• Check gate
• Departure time
• Lounge access
• Upgrade
Flight
• Arrival time
• Food order
• Movies
• Wi-Fi
+2 hr
• Ground
transportation
• Lost luggage
• Navigation
+ 2 days
• Customer service
• Mileage status
• Reward travel
• Upcoming reservations
Contextual use of time will help prioritize home page content
Airline example based on user time

4. Adoption of mobile phones has exploded
globally, and will continue
$12B
€2.7

Key Questions
models?

How will mobile development evolve?
1. The focus will shift beyond mobile apps
2. Architects will need to modernize infrastructure
3. There will be no “magic bullet” approach to client side
dev

1. The focus shifts beyond mobile apps

Infrastructure integration will play a larger role,
absorb more effort, and drive costs up
February 2013 “2013 Mobile Trends For eBusiness Professionals”

• Customer service
• Mileage status
• Reward travel
• Upcoming reservations
Traveler
mobile
tasks
Looking at the realities of context
Flight- 2 days + 2h- 2h + 2 days
• Book reservation
• Change reservation
• Request upgrade
• Reserve seat
• Check gate
• Departure time
• Lounge access
• Upgrade
• Arrival time
• Food order
• Movies
• Wi-Fi
• Baggage carousel
• Ground transportation
• Lost luggage
• Navigation
Flight reservation processes
Flight
timeline
Travel
business
processes
Customer loyalty processes
Flight processes
Baggage handling processes

2. Architects will need to modernize
infrastructure

Traits of A Modern Application Rationale
APIs everywhere APIs must be asynchronous and consumable across multiple
platforms
Uses asynchronous communication Event-driven architecture improves performance by eliminating
blocking at infrastructure layer
Uses lightweight process
communication frameworks (e.g.
REST, JSON, node.js, Nginx)
Reduces resource consumption, effectively uses smaller
processing instances, smaller thread pools
Composed of independent service
endpoints
Individual service can change independently, applications can
continue to function if an individual service fails
Use of in-memory DBs Reduces latency between mobile clients and infrastructure
Services deployed on elastic
infrastructure
Makes is easier and cheaper to scale up and down on demand
Sharded SQL DBMSes or NoSQL
DBMSes
Makes it possible to support millions of customers with
commodity, scale-out hardware
Uses dynamic languages in concert
with languages like Java and .NET
Simplifies programming constructs. Allow applications to evolve
without recompiling services.

Architecture patterns evolve to exploit
scale out
MVC
Data Source Filter (n) Data Sink
Pipes and Filters
Pipes (n +1)
View
ControllerModel
Broker
Message
Bus
Service
Service
Service
Bridge
Clients
(Web &
Mobile)
Gateway

Domain REST API
Screen-based REST API
What powers Linked-in Mobile
› Node.js for high scale asynchronous
eventing to clients
› Mobile server intermediates
between client and LinkedIn platform
› Screen API (JSON) – Domain API
(Thrift)
› Nginx for higher throughput of
messages
Cloud Native Elements
iOS
JS/HTML +
Native
Android
Native
Mobile Web
JS/HTML
Other
Wrap
JS/HTML
Load Balancer
Nginx Nginx
Node JS
Server
Node JS
Server
LinkedIn Core Platform
Mongo
DB
Logging
Server
Tracking
Server
MobileServer

The NPR API architecture
› 43M pageviews in 2010 to
88M – 30M mobile
› Following a COPE strategy
› Appservers, Java, JSP, Struts
› MySQL as data management
layer
› NoSQL XML repository for API
staging
› PHP 5 /Linux in the API
handling layer
› Memcache to accelerate
Cloud Native Elements

3. There will be no “magic bullet” approach
Native
Tools
Performance
Cost
Agility
Experience
Connected Tasks
Full JS Framework
Hybrid
Mobile
Middleware
Light JS
Framework
Responsive
Web

Developers say “Yes” to all the above
Source: Forrsights Developer Survey, Q1 2013
What approach(s) do you take for multiplatform development?
3%
31%
32%
42%
42%
66%
None of the above
I decide on a core set of platform(s) and maintain a
portable common code base
I use a hybrid approach that mixes native platform code
and HTML/JavaScript as part of the same app
I write native code on a platform I'm familiar with, then port
to other platforms opportunistically
I create apps using a cross-platform development tool
I use HTML, JavaScript, and other Web technologies to
support multiple platforms
Base: 272 North American Software Developers building mobile apps or websites that deploy to multiple OSes

Mobile app strategies — Web
Developing apps that use the device browser
› Content centric experiences
› “Glanceable” experiences
› Situational applications
› Use progressive enhancement, graceful
degradation, or responsive design
› Security, manageability concerns mirror
regular web apps
› Best for tablet-centered experiences

Responsive design is on the rise
43%
28%
14%
9%
15%
Progressive enhancement
Responsive design
Responsive design plus server-side
components (RESS)
Graceful Degradation
Don't Know
“Which of the following design philosophies best reflect how you
develop websites?”
N= 579 developers using HTML 5
Source: 2013 Developer Forrsights Survey

Mobile app strategies — Light JS
• Build on a philosophy of progressive
enhancement
• Quick to configure, basic set of commonly
used controls – form driven
• Good for connected apps, campaigns, and
“glanceable” apps
• Use CSS for styling
• Small payloads = quick downloads
Lightweight Javascript Frameworks Focus On Open Web Experience

Mobile app strategies — Full JS
• Philosophy tends to favor a graceful degradation
approach
• JavaScript centric programming – larger API set
• Richer set of controls – charts, support for SVG
• Good for more complex connected apps,
dashboards, reporting
• More prescriptive programming models (e.g.
MVC)
Full Javascript Frameworks appeal to IT application developers

Development considerations
1. How extensive does offline support need to be? Rich media?
2. Do you need cutting-edge platform features like GPU acceleration or NFC?
3. Do you want to monetize your apps?
4. Are you more interested in progressive enhancement or functional APIs?
5. Do you need to support more than two platforms/form factors?
6. What staff capabilities will you match up against mobile?
7. How important are predictable costs?
8. What type of information are you building your app around?
9. How important is it to control the distribution of your apps?
10. What must be done custom versus using package apps?
10 questions to ask before choosing a client technology:

Key Questions
› How will mobile disrupt existing
business models?

Mobile will transform business models
many ways. Mobile will:
1. Offer deeper consumer engagement
2.Evolve into real-time interactions that depend heavily
on contextual information
3. Alter pricing models
4. Up-end existing cost structures (lower barriers to
entry) and disintermediate ecosystem players
5. Facilitate real time access to information and services
for the billions

• Bar code scanning
• Consumer reviews
• Coupons
• In-store navigation
• Lists (e.g., wedding
registries)
• Loyalty
• Promotions
• Shopping lists
In-store
• Coupons
• In-store inventory
• Nearest “store”
• Pricing
• Promotions
Competitor’s store
• Coupons
• How-to videos
• In-store inventory
• Research tools
• Shopping list
building
• Store hours
• Store location
• Weekly circular
Home
Retail example based on user location
2. Intelligence added to location will dictate
consumer experiences on mobile
Image: Julie Ask

3. Pricing can and will vary by location
If a retailer knows I am home,
they may offer a price
assuming I won’t get in my car
and drive.
If a retailer
knows I am
in the store,
they may
price
assuming I
need the
product
now.

4. Industries with complex or dated
business models ….
Taxi
Medallion Insurance
Dispatch
Call IVR
Waiting Waiting
No Transparency

… will be susceptible to disruption as
mobile phones eliminate elements …
Taxi
Medallion Insurance
Dispatch
Call IVR
Waiting Waiting
No Transparency

… and offer value add services
• Value-add services include: choice
of car, electronic receipts, car
tracking, driver ratings/reviews,
timely information, etc.
• Vehicles are identified quickly
without lengthy IVR interactions or
“hold” times
• Mobile-first company/service

5. Mobile phones offer unprecedented
connectivity/computing power to billions
› Mobile phones will have a profound impact on democratizing access to a
wealth of services
• People living in rural areas in countries without the physical infrastructure and
wealth we know in the US will have access to care
• Scientists can track, for example, the outbreak of a simple flu or even malaria
• “Connected cameras” in phones will facilitate remote diagnostics
› Impact/WIM?
• Lower the cost of care
• Improve the quality of care based on more accurate information
• Separate “place” from care … patients do not need to be in the same room as
care givers as often or for as many reasons

Cellscope turns a cell phone camera into
a microscope for diagnostics

Key Questions
models?

Business leaders and
developers must shift
their focus together.

How to approach mobile services design:
1. Think mobile first
2. Focus on convenience
3. Use feedback to rapidly evolve mobile services
4. Organize around mobile service delivery
5. Prepare for further technology disruption

1. Thinking “Mobile First” with context:
› Deliver relevancy
› Simplify tasks
› Create a personalized services
layered on top of the physical
world

Think of this less as “Big Brother” watching
http://www.flickr.com/photos

. . . and more like “Big Mother” helping

The line between creepy and
helpful is thin, gray, and curvy.

Creepy or helpful?
What your phone/Amex knows:
• You have traveled to Mexico.
• You have rented a car.
• You are staying at the Westin.
• The weather there is 92oF.
“We suspect you are driving
to Chichen Itza today. Our
travel partner is offering a
special price on tours if
booked with your Amex.”

Creepy or helpful?
What your phone/AMEX knows:
• You have traveled to Mexico.
• You have rented a car.
• You are staying at the Westin.
• The weather there is 92oF.
“We see your card was just
used to purchase tickets to
Chichen Itza. Please enter
your 4-digit passcode to
confirm you have possession
of your card.”

Systems of
Engagement
3. Use feedback to rapidly evolve services
Time to Safety
Time to Certainty
Time to Feedback
Systems of
Operation
Systems of
Record
Lifecycle Focus

Adapt Agile principles for mobile
› Use personas to drive insight
› Create journey maps
› Wireframes and prototypes build backlog
› Feedback not requirements documents
› Kanban boards to manage atomic
demand
› Analytics built into applications

Wow
Enjoyable
Functional
Neutral
Missed It
Awareness Consideration Research Purchase Engagement
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 8
9
10
11
Identify
customer and
stages of
journey
Indicate
primary (and
secondary )
devices for
each step
Describe each
step in the
journey, the
customer’s
needs and
perceptions
Indicate
significant
steps
Persona:
James
A Multi-channel journey map

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
V 1.0
(MVP)
V 1.2.2V 1.2
V 1.2.1
Regression + Emergency
Patch
New OS
version
released
V 2.0
V 2.1
Features +
Defect fixes
Regular Internal Sprint Cycle + Beta Testing (2 weeks)
Move toward “release on demand”

Services will evolve in sophistication
Levelofmobile
sophistication
High
Low
Evolution of services over time
Nothing
Multichannel
• Migrate services that are
frequently used online
and are mobile.
Consistency
Cross-
channel
• Mobile doesn’t have to
be a holistic replacement
for other channels or
touchpoints.
Enhancement
Mobile-
unique
• New products,
processes, and
services
Breakthrough
Advanced
contextualSimplicity

Single Mobile
Champion
Mobile
Group
“We have a mobile center of excellence. They are tasked with
understanding the mobile ecosystem plus key trends, developing best
practices and educating our staff.”
Organization
“It [mobile group] was great early on because we needed a small group
to get attention. But then there wasn’t enough fire to make mobile go.
Mobile need to be infused everywhere. We disaggregated mobile.”

› Create a strategy for mobile services overall
› Obtain appropriate senior buy-in, budget, and
governance
› Create “service teams” that combine business,
development, testing, and operations
› Put a plan in place to handle big data/analytics
› Focus on communities of practice over centers of
excellence

5. Prepare for further technology disruption
› Today’s cutting edge device features will comm0ditize
› New sensors will enrich context
› Motion and voice will augment touch inputs
› Moore’s law will enable more edge processing
› Heads up interfaces will emerge
› Larger touch surfaces (portable and static)
› Wearable and connectables create local networks
› Apps give way to platforms and services
› Tension over economics of native/web vs. unique platform
services

Phones will have a host of new technologies
Technology Opportunity (examples)
• 3D cameras
• Biometrics
• Conversational voice recognition
• Near field communications (NFC)
• Distance measured, gesture control
• Security, access cards, ID
• Verbal command (e.g., Siri)
• Payments, ticketing, and information
Controls
• 3D displays
• High-resolution displays
• Micromirrors
• Touch inputs (fine-tuned)
• Augmented reality, video output
• Media consumption, bar codes
• Image projection, picoprojectors
Displays
• Accelerometers (detects motion/tilt)
• Chemical sensors
• Gyroscopes
• Magnetometers
• Microbolometers (infrared)
• Pressure sensors
• Phone orientation as control, pedometer
• CO detection, food freshness
• Gesture control, navigation, games
• Directions — “Is it over there?”
• Night vision, heat, light/dark
• Height in buildings
Datacollection
Source: A.M. Fitzgerald & Associates, Yole Développement, and interviews with Atmel, InvenSense, and Sharp Electronics

In summary – Pulling it all together
› Think mobile first – the numbers demand it
› Think beyond apps – to modern applications
› Think omni-channel – tablets /= smart phones
› Think context – local, historical, and extended
› Think convenience – provide relevant, simple,
personalized services
› Think horizontal – organize around service delivery
› Think flexible – the mobile shift is just getting started!

Thank you.
Julie Ask
+1 415 355 6002
jask@forrester.com
Jeffrey Hammond
+1 978 226 8886
jhammond@forrester.com
www.forrester.com

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