What’s Next L.A.? Economic Conference, Residential Real Estate Section
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This document contains charts and graphs summarizing housing market trends in California and Los Angeles County from 1990 to 2009. It shows that home sales, prices and construction declined sharply from around 2005 to 2009. Existing home sales fell over 50% in LA County from their peak. Median home prices dropped over 35% in both LA County and California. Apartment vacancy rates increased while rent levels and permits declined. Foreclosures and defaults both increased substantially during this period.
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What’s Next L.A.? Economic Conference, Residential Real Estate Section
- 5. New Home Sales Q1-90 to Q4-09 200 Index (Q1-2000 = 100) 150 100 Case-Shiller Index Single-Family Home Prices, Q1-88 to Q4-09 50 300 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 250 Los Angeles County California Index (Q1-2000 = 100, SA) Source: DataQuick 200 150 100 50 Q1-88 Q3-91 Q1-95 Q3-98 Q1-02 Q3-05 Q1-09 Los Angeles (MD) California United States Source: 1010Data
- 6. −7.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 −42.1 −24.2 −19.0 −26.4 −52.6 −37.1 −24.7 −36.5 8.2 5.5 1.3 4.6 New Home Median Home Prices Q1-90 to Q4-09 200 Index (Q1-2000 = 100) 150 100 50 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 Los Angeles County California Source: DataQuick
- 8. 1 298, 000 1, 075 63 62 1 329, 975 1, 500 25 21 1 1, 500, 000 2, 249 23 18 2 1, 143, 114 1, 814 35 29 2 532, 214 1, 280 133 86 1 11, 000, 000 6, 100 35 5 2 431, 711 1, 737 28 26 1 263, 990 1, 281 95 94 1 335, 000 1, 770 10 5 1 798, 333 1, 647 18 5 2 906, 245 1, 754 119 65 1 415, 657 1, 661 70 70 6 1, 150, 741 1, 474 335 185 1 530, 000 1, 673 114 114 24 779, 784 1, 411 2, 387 1, 786 2 1, 337, 130 1, 766 569 507 1 267, 500 1, 380 30 30 1 239, 000 830 30 30 2 428, 329 1, 452 85 81 5 613, 201 1, 555 191 127 1 835, 833 2, 206 45 30 1 269, 900 1, 598 166 166 2 343, 611 969 239 167 1 538, 857 1, 117 41 41 1 510, 000 1, 775 14 6 1 260, 000 1, 350 23 23 4 426, 320 1, 124 493 280 1 399, 167 1, 941 8 2 1 381, 400 1, 610 18 3 3 464, 849 1, 462 119 71 1 435, 000 1, 588 20 17 3 532, 305 1, 444 117 55 5 334, 976 1, 805 292 261 1 444, 900 1, 785 40 29 3 326, 543 1, 137 140 125 1 359, 000 1, 520 12 6 2 332, 815 1, 566 148 105 1 897, 667 1, 537 35 23 2 576, 300 1, 373 40 17 1 410, 000 2, 545 34 24 5 892, 433 1, 381 84 29 3 599, 897 1, 456 122 86 1 414, 490 1, 752 114 105 1 281, 000 876 991 988
- 9. 1 418, 500 2, 609 12 12 1 665, 000 2, 200 12 11 1 779, 933 3, 734 28 17 5 209, 516 1, 977 108 70 1 299, 000 1, 860 44 25 2 925, 060 3, 147 308 306 5 277, 000 2, 836 770 749 1 1, 495, 000 3, 429 6 5 1 995, 000 2, 358 16 15 1 425, 900 1, 149 138 137 1 448, 750 3, 684 61 57 4 492, 088 2, 967 283 265 1 499, 167 1, 963 18 4 1 1, 735, 000 5, 531 6 2 3 537, 129 2, 699 235 227 3 1, 139, 584 4, 159 108 99 1 648, 888 2, 232 46 35 Existing Single-Family Home Sales Q1-90 to Q3-09 120 Index (Q1-2000 = 100) 100 80 60 40 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 Los Angeles County California Source: DataQuick
- 10. Existing Single-Family Home Median Prices Q1-90 to Q3-09 300 250 Index (Q1-2000 = 100) 200 150 100 50 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 Los Angeles County California Source: DataQuick Existing Condominium Sales Q1-90 to Q4-09 120 100 Index (Q1-2000 = 100) 80 60 40 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 Los Angeles County California Source: DataQuick
- 11. Existing Condominium Median Prices Q1-90 to Q3-09 300 250 Index (Q1-2000 = 100) 200 150 100 50 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 Los Angeles County California Source: DataQuick Apartment Vacancy Rate Q1-90 to Q4-09 12 10 Percentage 8 6 4 2 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire (MSA) Orange County (MD) San Diego (MSA) *These data are seasonally adjusted and smoothed Source: Property & Portfolio Research
- 12. Apartment Net Absorption Q1-90 to Q4-09 4,000 Thousands of Units 2,000 0 Apartment Cost of Rent Q1-90 to Q4-09 -2,000 2,000 Gross Dollars per Unit per Month -4,000 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 1,500 Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire (MSA) Orange County (MD) San Diego (MSA) 1,000 *These data are seasonally adjusted and smoothed Source: Property & Portfolio Research 500 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire (MSA) Orange County (MD) San Diego (MSA) *These data are seasonally adjusted and smoothed Source: Property & Portfolio Research
- 13. Apartment Cap Rates Q1-90 to Q4-09 9 8 Percentage 7 6 5 Q1-90 Q2-93 Q3-96 Q4-99 Q1-03 Q2-06 Q3-09 Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire (MSA) Orange County (MD) San Diego (MSA) *These data are seasonally adjusted and smoothed Source: Property & Portfolio Research
- 14. 65, 848 56, 432 14.3 −125 103, 975 96, 385 7.3 105 94, 050 85, 868 8.7 1 188, 311 173, 623 7.8 369 175, 406 164, 005 6.5 177 82, 581 78, 617 4.8 458 368, 967 343, 508 6.9 372 1, 079, 138 998, 203 7.5 1, 356 Foreclosures Q1-1994 to Q4-2009 800 Index (Q1-2000 = 100, SA and smoothed) 600 400 200 0 Q1-94 Q4-95 Q3-97 Q2-99 Q1-01 Q4-02 Q3-04 Q2-06 Q1-08 Q4-09 Los Angeles County California Source: DataQuick
- 15. Defaults Q1-2002 to Q4-2009 1,000 Index (Q1-2002 = 100, SA and smoothed) 800 600 400 200 0 Q1-02 Q4-02 Q3-03 Q2-04 Q1-05 Q4-05 Q3-06 Q2-07 Q1-08 Q4-08 Q3-09 Los Angeles County California Single-Family Building Permit Forecast Source: DataQuick Los Angeles County, Q1-04 to Q4-13 3.0 Actual Forecast 2.5 Thousands of Units 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Q1-04 Q3-05 Q1-07 Q3-08 Q1-10 Q3-11 Q1-13 Forecast by Beacon Economics
- 16. Multi-Family Building Permit Forecast Los Angeles County, Q1-04 to Q4-13 4 Actual Forecast 3 Thousands of Units 2 1 0 Q1-04 Q3-05 Q1-07 Q3-08 Q1-10 Q3-11 Q1-13 Forecast by Beacon Economics