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Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over

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The Texas Network, LLC
The Texas Network, LLC

Presentation at the TWCA mid year conference 2012 www.twca.org Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G. Texas Water Development Board presented to the Texas Water Conservation Association Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012

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Drought: It Aint Over Till Its Over Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G. Texas Water Development Board presented to the Texas Water Conservation Association Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012
看姻 The Drought Aint Over Until John Nielsen-Gammon Sings
Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over
Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over
Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over
Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over
Drought categories with time 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Drought categories with time 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
RESERVOIR CONSERVATION STORAGE DATA ( ) -1% from last week
Reservoir Storage by Climatic Region (% Full) (Change from 5/30/2012) (+0.03%) (+0.14%) (-0.37%) (-0.71%) (-0.11%) (-0.20%) (-0.40%) (-1.77%) (-1.05%)
Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over
Lake Meredith (Texas share)
O.H. Ivie Reservoir
Lake Brownwood
Lake Travis
Falcon Reservoir (Texas share)
Total storage in Elephant Butte ~ 2,000,000 acre-feet (total storage in Caballo varies during the year from ~350,000 acre-feet to 50,000 acre-feet)
April 1-30, 2012 30-Day Precipitation 86% Percentage of Normal 60% May 1-30, 2012 45% 74% 99% 38% 60% 42% 101% 44% 55% 51% 47% Percentage of Normal 48% 0%-19% 20%-39% 204% 137% 40%-59% 60%-79% 80%-99% 105% 100%-119% 72% >120% 105% 73% http:// www.southernclimate.org/products/precip.php
Streamflow Index 30-day Mean Flow Conditions
Groundwater Level in J-17 Well Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 http://www.saws.org/our_water/aquifer/
Public Water Supply Systems Affected by Drought June 6, 2012 Total number of Community water systems affected: 1009 Total number of active Community water systems in Texas: 4699 RESOLVED (1) WATCH Voluntary (417) WATCH Mandatory (592) http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/permitting/water_supply/pdw/trot/location.html
Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over
El Nino/La Nina: 50% chance of El Nino 2nd half 2012
Demand v. Supply Demand for water Acre-feet Water we have now
Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over
Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G. Texas Water Development Board presented to the Texas Water Conservation Association Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012

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Drought: It Ain't Over Till It's Over

  • 1. Drought: It Aint Over Till Its Over Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G. Texas Water Development Board presented to the Texas Water Conservation Association Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012
  • 2. 看姻 The Drought Aint Over Until John Nielsen-Gammon Sings
  • 7. Drought categories with time 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 8. Drought categories with time 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 9. RESERVOIR CONSERVATION STORAGE DATA ( ) -1% from last week
  • 10. Reservoir Storage by Climatic Region (% Full) (Change from 5/30/2012) (+0.03%) (+0.14%) (-0.37%) (-0.71%) (-0.11%) (-0.20%) (-0.40%) (-1.77%) (-1.05%)
  • 17. Total storage in Elephant Butte ~ 2,000,000 acre-feet (total storage in Caballo varies during the year from ~350,000 acre-feet to 50,000 acre-feet)
  • 18. April 1-30, 2012 30-Day Precipitation 86% Percentage of Normal 60% May 1-30, 2012 45% 74% 99% 38% 60% 42% 101% 44% 55% 51% 47% Percentage of Normal 48% 0%-19% 20%-39% 204% 137% 40%-59% 60%-79% 80%-99% 105% 100%-119% 72% >120% 105% 73% http:// www.southernclimate.org/products/precip.php
  • 19. Streamflow Index 30-day Mean Flow Conditions
  • 20. Groundwater Level in J-17 Well Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 http://www.saws.org/our_water/aquifer/
  • 21. Public Water Supply Systems Affected by Drought June 6, 2012 Total number of Community water systems affected: 1009 Total number of active Community water systems in Texas: 4699 RESOLVED (1) WATCH Voluntary (417) WATCH Mandatory (592) http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/permitting/water_supply/pdw/trot/location.html
  • 23. El Nino/La Nina: 50% chance of El Nino 2nd half 2012
  • 24. Demand v. Supply Demand for water Acre-feet Water we have now
  • 26. Robert E. Mace, Ph.D., P.G. Texas Water Development Board presented to the Texas Water Conservation Association Horseshoe Bay, Texas, June 15, 2012

Editor's Notes

  1. This graph shows our demand for water compared to water we have now under drought of record conditions. So are we ready for the next drought of record? [click] nope The bad news: were not ready. Were not ready now, and we get less readier [sic] in the future. Note: Water we have now is water with current infrastructure, i.e. no additional wells, reservoirs, pipelines, etc. Note: Decreases in Water we have now are due primarily to mining water from the Ogalalla but also due to decreases in other aquifers and sedimentation of our reservoirs.