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?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555

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1. 2.
15 (2540 C 2555) 1. 2.
12 :
-5 0 5 10 15 -15 -10 2500 2503 2506 2509 2512 2515 2518 2521 2524 2527 2530 2533 2540 -2555 2536 2539 2542 crisis Dotcom 2545 2548 crisis 2551 2554 Subprime +
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2500 2503 2506 2509 2512 2515 2518 2521 2524 2527 2530 2533 2536 2539 2542 2545 2500 - 2554 2548 2551 2554
?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555
YINGLUCKNOMICS ( 2554 C THAKSINOMICS V2
Thaksinomics: 2544-2549 Dual - Track Policy Social Capitalism
10 Socialist 4 3 5 Capitalism Social capitalism 1 2 0 5 10
Political Auction (10 + 30% 15,000/ 20,000 (20 300 25% 2 15,000 (7 500 600 - 1000
source: the Economist : www.economist.com
2539 2555 41,000 3,579,273 129,000 50,079 170,000 3,629,352 www.mof.go.th
1. 2. 3.
/ 2530 193,525.00 223,746.00 2531 245,030.00 220,694.00 2532 309,536.00 269,351.00 2533 394,509.00 312,320.00 2534 464,900.00 362,464.00 2535 499,004.00 448,322.00 2536 557,783.00 529,619.00
2540 - 2543 / 2540 / 844,24 906,64 9.00 1.00 2541 982,00 800,00 0.00 0.00 2542 730,42 825,50 0.00 0.00 2543
2544 - 2549 / 2544 805,000.00 910,000.00 1,023,000. 2545 823,000.00 00 2546 825,000.00 999,900.00 1,028,000. 2547 928,100.00 00 1,250,000. 1,250,000. 2548 00 00 2549
?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555
?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555
?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555
tax earmarking
?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555
?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555
Tax/GDP Denmark 1990-1997 49.8 Norway 1990-1997 34.5 Finland 1990-1997 35.4 Sweden 1990-1997 51.2 Austria 1995-1999 37.5 France 1990-1997 45.2 Greece 1992-1999 36.9 Italy 1990-1997 44.2 United Kingdom 1990-1997 32.9 World 1990-1997 18.1
GDP /GD P (%) 2530 183,014 1,253,147 14.6 2535 449,316 2,827,158 15.9 2540 802,947 4,732,610 17.0 2545 851,062 5,450,643 15.6 2546 986,142 5,917,369 16.7 2547 1,154,132 6,489,476 17.8 2548 1,326,948 7,095,619 18.7 2549 1,427,528 7,830,329 18.2 2550 1,497,050 8,485,200 17.6
ASEAN 2005 2006 2007 18.7 18.2 17.6 18.1 20.9 22.2 22.4 21.8 28.0 26.8 24.9 26.6 20.3 21.5 21.8 21.2 17.8 19.0 17.9 18.2 15.0 16.2 17.1 16.1
?09 2555 12:15 . | 3 52 Earth Institute World Happiness Report ( ) 3 ( 26) ( 29) 52 3 ( 51) ( )
10 1. 49.8 2. 35.4 3. 34.5 4. 5. 6. 7. 51.2 8. 9. 10.
1. USA, EU, Japan 2. 3. AEC 4.
Subprime 2543 2544 2550 2551 Dotcom 911 Crisis Bear Stearns Lehman Brother Fannei Mae Freddie Mac AIG
2544 2,884,703.9 100.0 1 584,497.0 20.3 2 439,830.2 15.2 3 233,070.9 8.1 4 146,392.2 5.1 5 127,205.2 4.4 6 120,983.4 4.2 7 103,414.0 3.6 8 89,963.5 3.1 9 85,130.2 3.0 10 69,571.8 2.4
2553 2553/2010 % SHARE 6,176,302.1 100.0 1 678,631.8 11.0 2 645,210.2 10.4 3 638,820.1 10.3 4 413,785.0 6.7 5 334,598.8 5.4 6 297,098.7 4.8 7 285,187.1 4.6 8 232,856.2 3.8 9 184,463.1 3.0 10 154,914.9 2.5
10 2543 -2553 2543 2545 2547 2549 2551 2553 1. 4.07 5.22 7.37 9.04 9.11 10.99 2. 14.70 14.60 13.98 12.63 11.30 10.45 3. 21.36 19.82 16.06 14.99 11.40 10.34 4. 5.05 5.41 5.12 5.52 5.65 6.72 5. 4.07 4.16 5.50 5.10 5.57 5.41 6. 2.35 2.41 2.56 3.35 4.49 4.80 7. 8.71 8.15 7.28 6.44 5.69 4.61 19.27 8. 1.95 2.47 3.33 2.55 3.56 3.76 9. 1.22 1.39 1.94 2.37 2.82 2.99 10. 1.57 1.87 1.90 1.98 1.98 2.50 10 65.05 65.50 65.04 63.97 71.22 72.53 34.95 34.50 34.96 36.03 28.78 27.47
Gross World Product 2007 54,584,918 million USD Rank Country GDP (milli USD) % 1 USA 13,807,550 25.30 2 Japan 4,381,576 8.03 3 China 3,715,510 6.80 4 Germany 3,320,997 6.08 5 UK 2,804,437 5.14
Rank Country GDP (milli USD) % 6 France 2,593,779 4.75 7 Italy 2,104,666 3.86 8 Spain 1,439,983 2.64 9 Canada 1,436,086 2.63 10 Brazil 1,313,590 2.40 34 Thailand 245,351 IMF
1970 - 2007 ( GDP (% ) 124 2.6 6.2 208 2.1 5.9 63 - - 42 3.8 18.6 10 Source: Laeven and Valencia (2008) 2.5 8.3
28
30 2553 - 348 79 10%
400 350 300 Accord Plaza 250 200 150 100 50 0
2528 10,000 $ 250 Y/$ 2,500,000 Y 2530 10,000 $ 150 Y/$ 1,500,000 Y 16,666 13,333
?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555
1. 2. A
?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555
undervalue 100 $ 9.00 / 1$ 900 Depreciate 100 $ 8.28 / 1$ 828 100 $ 8.11 / 1$ 811 Appreciate 100 $ 7.00 / 1$ 700
28
117 4,000 4 12,000 40%
24
ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015 2558
GDP 237,556,353 706,558 3,039 5,076,700 222,699 43,324 27,565,821 237,804 8,519 94,013,200 199,589 2,132 67,041,000 318,847 4,679 87,375,000 103,572 1,172 399,000 10,732 31,239 47,963,000 35,646 702 6,230,200 7,491 1,164 13,395,682 11,343 802
One Vision, One identity, One Community
1. 2. 3. 4.
: AEC
FTA Custom Common Economic Union Market Union 1. 0% 2. 3. 4.
CLMV : 100% 0 %** ASEAN 6: 100% 0 %** 54,467 (99.65%) ASEAN 6: 80% 0% 2535 2550 2553 2558 ** :
- %) - - ( :
: 254 2551 2553 255 25 9 6 58 4 49 51% 70% - - 1. % 2. 3. 4. - 49% 51% 70 - % 30 49% 51% - 70 % %
EU NAFTA G A T T AEC www.wto.org

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?????????????????????????????????? 25 ??????? 2555

  • 3. 15 (2540 C 2555) 1. 2.
  • 5. -5 0 5 10 15 -15 -10 2500 2503 2506 2509 2512 2515 2518 2521 2524 2527 2530 2533 2540 -2555 2536 2539 2542 crisis Dotcom 2545 2548 crisis 2551 2554 Subprime +
  • 6. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2500 2503 2506 2509 2512 2515 2518 2521 2524 2527 2530 2533 2536 2539 2542 2545 2500 - 2554 2548 2551 2554
  • 8. YINGLUCKNOMICS ( 2554 C THAKSINOMICS V2
  • 9. Thaksinomics: 2544-2549 Dual - Track Policy Social Capitalism
  • 10. 10 Socialist 4 3 5 Capitalism Social capitalism 1 2 0 5 10
  • 11. Political Auction (10 + 30% 15,000/ 20,000 (20 300 25% 2 15,000 (7 500 600 - 1000
  • 12. source: the Economist : www.economist.com
  • 13. 2539 2555 41,000 3,579,273 129,000 50,079 170,000 3,629,352 www.mof.go.th
  • 15. / 2530 193,525.00 223,746.00 2531 245,030.00 220,694.00 2532 309,536.00 269,351.00 2533 394,509.00 312,320.00 2534 464,900.00 362,464.00 2535 499,004.00 448,322.00 2536 557,783.00 529,619.00
  • 16. 2540 - 2543 / 2540 / 844,24 906,64 9.00 1.00 2541 982,00 800,00 0.00 0.00 2542 730,42 825,50 0.00 0.00 2543
  • 17. 2544 - 2549 / 2544 805,000.00 910,000.00 1,023,000. 2545 823,000.00 00 2546 825,000.00 999,900.00 1,028,000. 2547 928,100.00 00 1,250,000. 1,250,000. 2548 00 00 2549
  • 24. Tax/GDP Denmark 1990-1997 49.8 Norway 1990-1997 34.5 Finland 1990-1997 35.4 Sweden 1990-1997 51.2 Austria 1995-1999 37.5 France 1990-1997 45.2 Greece 1992-1999 36.9 Italy 1990-1997 44.2 United Kingdom 1990-1997 32.9 World 1990-1997 18.1
  • 25. GDP /GD P (%) 2530 183,014 1,253,147 14.6 2535 449,316 2,827,158 15.9 2540 802,947 4,732,610 17.0 2545 851,062 5,450,643 15.6 2546 986,142 5,917,369 16.7 2547 1,154,132 6,489,476 17.8 2548 1,326,948 7,095,619 18.7 2549 1,427,528 7,830,329 18.2 2550 1,497,050 8,485,200 17.6
  • 26. ASEAN 2005 2006 2007 18.7 18.2 17.6 18.1 20.9 22.2 22.4 21.8 28.0 26.8 24.9 26.6 20.3 21.5 21.8 21.2 17.8 19.0 17.9 18.2 15.0 16.2 17.1 16.1
  • 27. ?09 2555 12:15 . | 3 52 Earth Institute World Happiness Report ( ) 3 ( 26) ( 29) 52 3 ( 51) ( )
  • 28. 10 1. 49.8 2. 35.4 3. 34.5 4. 5. 6. 7. 51.2 8. 9. 10.
  • 29. 1. USA, EU, Japan 2. 3. AEC 4.
  • 30. Subprime 2543 2544 2550 2551 Dotcom 911 Crisis Bear Stearns Lehman Brother Fannei Mae Freddie Mac AIG
  • 31. 2544 2,884,703.9 100.0 1 584,497.0 20.3 2 439,830.2 15.2 3 233,070.9 8.1 4 146,392.2 5.1 5 127,205.2 4.4 6 120,983.4 4.2 7 103,414.0 3.6 8 89,963.5 3.1 9 85,130.2 3.0 10 69,571.8 2.4
  • 32. 2553 2553/2010 % SHARE 6,176,302.1 100.0 1 678,631.8 11.0 2 645,210.2 10.4 3 638,820.1 10.3 4 413,785.0 6.7 5 334,598.8 5.4 6 297,098.7 4.8 7 285,187.1 4.6 8 232,856.2 3.8 9 184,463.1 3.0 10 154,914.9 2.5
  • 33. 10 2543 -2553 2543 2545 2547 2549 2551 2553 1. 4.07 5.22 7.37 9.04 9.11 10.99 2. 14.70 14.60 13.98 12.63 11.30 10.45 3. 21.36 19.82 16.06 14.99 11.40 10.34 4. 5.05 5.41 5.12 5.52 5.65 6.72 5. 4.07 4.16 5.50 5.10 5.57 5.41 6. 2.35 2.41 2.56 3.35 4.49 4.80 7. 8.71 8.15 7.28 6.44 5.69 4.61 19.27 8. 1.95 2.47 3.33 2.55 3.56 3.76 9. 1.22 1.39 1.94 2.37 2.82 2.99 10. 1.57 1.87 1.90 1.98 1.98 2.50 10 65.05 65.50 65.04 63.97 71.22 72.53 34.95 34.50 34.96 36.03 28.78 27.47
  • 34. Gross World Product 2007 54,584,918 million USD Rank Country GDP (milli USD) % 1 USA 13,807,550 25.30 2 Japan 4,381,576 8.03 3 China 3,715,510 6.80 4 Germany 3,320,997 6.08 5 UK 2,804,437 5.14
  • 35. Rank Country GDP (milli USD) % 6 France 2,593,779 4.75 7 Italy 2,104,666 3.86 8 Spain 1,439,983 2.64 9 Canada 1,436,086 2.63 10 Brazil 1,313,590 2.40 34 Thailand 245,351 IMF
  • 36. 1970 - 2007 ( GDP (% ) 124 2.6 6.2 208 2.1 5.9 63 - - 42 3.8 18.6 10 Source: Laeven and Valencia (2008) 2.5 8.3
  • 37. 28
  • 38. 30 2553 - 348 79 10%
  • 39. 400 350 300 Accord Plaza 250 200 150 100 50 0
  • 40. 2528 10,000 $ 250 Y/$ 2,500,000 Y 2530 10,000 $ 150 Y/$ 1,500,000 Y 16,666 13,333
  • 42. 1. 2. A
  • 44. undervalue 100 $ 9.00 / 1$ 900 Depreciate 100 $ 8.28 / 1$ 828 100 $ 8.11 / 1$ 811 Appreciate 100 $ 7.00 / 1$ 700
  • 45. 28
  • 46. 117 4,000 4 12,000 40%
  • 47. 24
  • 49. GDP 237,556,353 706,558 3,039 5,076,700 222,699 43,324 27,565,821 237,804 8,519 94,013,200 199,589 2,132 67,041,000 318,847 4,679 87,375,000 103,572 1,172 399,000 10,732 31,239 47,963,000 35,646 702 6,230,200 7,491 1,164 13,395,682 11,343 802
  • 50. One Vision, One identity, One Community
  • 52. : AEC
  • 53. FTA Custom Common Economic Union Market Union 1. 0% 2. 3. 4.
  • 54. CLMV : 100% 0 %** ASEAN 6: 100% 0 %** 54,467 (99.65%) ASEAN 6: 80% 0% 2535 2550 2553 2558 ** :
  • 55. - %) - - ( :
  • 56. : 254 2551 2553 255 25 9 6 58 4 49 51% 70% - - 1. % 2. 3. 4. - 49% 51% 70 - % 30 49% 51% - 70 % %
  • 57. EU NAFTA G A T T AEC www.wto.org

Editor's Notes

  1. ?????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????? 6 ?????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????? - ?????????????? ??????? 6 ???????? 80 % ????????????????????????????? 0% ???? 2550 ???????????????????????????????? ??????????? 1 ?????? 2553 ??????? 6 ????????????????????????????? 0% ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 4 ???? CLMV ???????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????? 4 ??????????????????????????????????????? 0% ???? 2558 ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 0?????????????????????????????????????????????????? 93 ?????? ?????????????????????? 8,300 ?????? ??????????????????????????????????? 0
  2. ???????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????? 0-5 ????????????????????????????????? 5 ?????? ???????? ???? ???????????????? ????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????? ???? ???????? ??????????? ????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ?????????????? ?????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????? ??????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????? ??????????-?????????????????????????????? 25 ???? 2558-???????? ?????????????????????????????????? 20 ???? 2553-?????????? ???????????????????????????????? 40 ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 2 ????????????? ????????????? ???????????????????????????????????? ??????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? WTO ?????? 40 ?????????????????????????????????????? ???????? ??????????? ????????????? WTO ???????????? 160 ??????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????? ????????????????? ??????????????????? 5-10 ???? 2558 ??????????????????????????????