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4_Hoi Nghi Dau Tu_2013-Dominic Scriven_VN

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Tuan Nguyen
Tuan Nguyen

Presentation of Dominic Scriven - CEO Dragon Capital on the topic "?a ng¨¤nh v¨¤ t?p trung" - "Diversify and Focus" in Investment Conference in VN 2013.

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?A NG?NH vs. T?P TRUNG 1
M? r?ng ?¨¤u t? ?a ng¨¤nh c¨® ph?i l¨¤ xu h??ng t?i ch?u ?? C¨¢c c?ng ty ?a ng¨¤nh chi?m 80% doanh thu c?a 50 c?ng ty h¨¤ng ??u H¨¤n Qu?c, 90% ? ?n ?? v¨¤ 40% ? Trung Qu?c (2010) Ngu?n: Understanding Asia¡¯s conglomerates, McKinsey Data excludes financial conglomerates and state-owned enterprises 2
??nh ki?n v¨¤ v¨ª d? v? s? th?t b?i c?a kinh doanh ?a ng¨¤nh D?a v¨¤o quan h? ch¨ªnh tr? Tr? gi¨¢ qu¨¢ cao cho vi?c ?i th?u t¨®m c¨¢c c?ng ty Ch?n ch? trong vi?c c?t b? c¨¢c kho?n ??u t? k¨¦m hi?u qu? Thi?u m?t chi?n l??c xuy¨ºn su?t v¨¤ b?n v?ng C? ch? qu?n tr? doanh nghi?p y?u 3
V¨ª d? c?a kinh doanh ?a ng¨¤nh th¨¤nh c?ng 4
V¨ª d? c?a kinh doanh ?a ng¨¤nh th¨¤nh c?ng $m 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2007 Net revenue Net profit GE 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2007 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 Net revenue Net profit Berkshire Hathaway $m 2010 2011 2012 2013 $m 2008 2009 2010 2011 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2012 2013 Net revenue Net profit 35,000 Hutchison Whampoa 120 30,000 100 25,000 80 20,000 60 15,000 40 10,000 20 5,000 0 2007 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5
V¨ª d? c?a kinh doanh ?a ng¨¤nh th¨¤nh c?ng: ?i?u ki?n c?n ??u ¨®c ph?n t¨ªch kinh doanh xu?t s?c C? c?u t¨¤i ch¨ªnh v?ng m?nh Li Ka Shing (Hutchinson Whampoa) Qu?n tr? doanh nghi?p m?nh N?ng l?c l?nh ??o xu?t s?c ?? t?o ra chi?n l??c t¨ªch h?p xuy¨ºn su?t K? ho?ch tho¨¢i v?n ki¨ºn ??nh Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) 6
VIETNAM: gi¨¢ tr? t¨¤i s?n ?nh h??ng ??n quy?t ??nh c?a doanh nghi?p B?NG N? HY V?NG TH?C T?NH ? Ch?ng kho¨¢n v¨¤ b?t ??ng s?n t?ng m?nh - Chi ph¨ª v?n r? - D? d¨¤ng huy ??ng v?n - ??u t? v¨¤o ng?n h¨¤ng / b?t ??ng s?n / c? phi?u ?a d?ng h¨®a - Kh?ng c¨°n ngu?n ti?n d? d¨¤ng - Gi¨¢ t¨¤i s?n gi?m m?nh - Hy v?ng ph?c h?i - Hy v?ng s? can thi?p c?a ch¨ªnh ph? - Nh?n th?c ???c th?c t? - B?t ??u gi?m n? - Quay tr? v? kinh doanh c?t l?i Tr? v? kinh doanh c?t l?i 7
L?ch s? huy ??ng v?n VND bn V?N C? PH?N N? 70,000 60,000 50,000 158% 225% 40,000 62,434 60,924 30,000 20,000 10,000 23,590 19,221 2006 2009 2006 2009 Ngu?n: Top 50 c?ng ty c?a 2006, Bloomberg 8
Thu nh?p kh?ng ?n ??nh do ??u t? d¨¤n tr?i 120% EBIT growth NPAT growth 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -20% -40% 9
Nh?ng c?ng ty theo chi?n l??c t?p trung t?i Vi?t Nam D??c H?u Giang VNDbn 3,500 3,000 140,000 160,000 Net revenue 20,000 Net profit 100,000 DHG 2,000 80,000 1,500 60,000 1,000 140,000 Net profit 120,000 Net revenue 2,500 VINAMILK VNDbn 25,000 120,000 VNM 15,000 100,000 40,000 500 20,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Net revenue 1,600 Net profit 1,400 BMP 80,000 70,000 60,000 1,200 50,000 1,000 40,000 800 30,000 600 400 20,000 200 10,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 60,000 40,000 5,000 20,000 - 2007 90,000 1,800 10,000 2013 Nh?a B¨¬nh Minh VNDbn 2,000 80,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 FPT VNDbn 30,000 200,000 Net revenue 180,000 Net profit 25,000 160,000 FPT 140,000 20,000 120,000 15,000 100,000 80,000 10,000 60,000 40,000 5,000 20,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10
Nh?ng c?ng ty theo chi?n l??c t?p trung t?i Vi?t Nam Thu h¨²t v?n: Room d¨¤nh cho kh?i ngo?i lu?n k¨ªn k? t? n?m 2011 Source: CafeF 11
Nh?ng c?ng ty theo chi?n l??c t?p trung - Th? gi?i COCA COLA $m 60,000 50,000 50 Net revenue Net profit Coca Cola 45 40 300,000 250,000 200,000 15 150,000 10 100,000 20 5 50,000 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TECENT HOLDINGS 450 700 HK Equity 40 30 0 2008 2009 3,000 2,500 10,000 100 5,000 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 151 HK Equity 150 15,000 2012 14 Net profit 200 20,000 2011 Net revenue 250 25,000 2010 WANT WANT CHINA HOLDINGS 3,500 300 30,000 2009 $m 4,000 50 350 Net profit 2008 0 2007 60 400 Net revenue 35,000 0 2007 70 350,000 20 10,000 40,000 80 WMT US Equity 25 20,000 45,000 400,000 90 Net profit 30 30,000 $m 50,000 450,000 WALMART Net revenue 35 40,000 0 2007 $m 500,000 12 10 8 2,000 6 1,500 4 1,000 2 500 0 2008 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12
Nh?ng c?u chuy?n th¨¤nh c?ng Qu?n tr? chi ph¨ª t?t ¡°Everyday low price¡± T¨ªch h?p nhu?n nhuy?n c¨¢c l?nh v?c kinh doanh To¨¤n c?u h¨®a H??ng t?i ph¨¢t tri?n b?n v?ng V?n h¨®a doanh nghi?p v?ng m?nh S¨¢ng t?o 13
Tr??ng h?p c? c?u l?i nhu?n c?a FPT C? C?U L?I NHU?N C?A FPT 100% 20.5 43.6 61.2 99.9 134.4 146.2 190.5 90% 173.1 224.1 209.5 229.5 301.0 367.3 421.4 356.8 540.0 601.4 800.7 894.5 917.0 535.5 595.6 80% 70% 227.6 60% 50% 180.0 320.7 40% 414.8 30% 20% 484.0 578.8 364.3 378.2 521.0 434.6 478.4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 474.0 420.8 10% 0% 2007 Distribution 2008 Integration Telecom Software exports Education 14
VINAMILK: M? r?ng theo chi?u ngang S?A N??C YOGURT TH?C U?NG 15
C¨¢c c?ng ty kinh doanh t?p trung c?ng c¨® r?i ro Chu k? kinh t? thay ??i C?ng ngh? thay ??i L?i s?ng thay ??i Thi?u hi?u bi?t v? th? tr??ng m?i 16
K?t lu?n ? Chi?n l??c t?p trung ch?a bao gi? l?i th?i ? C¨¢c c?ng ty theo ?u?i chi?n l??c t?p trung c¨® v? d? d¨¤ng thu h¨²t v?n ? Tuy nhi¨ºn, t?p trung trong tr?ng th¨¢i ng? qu¨ºn kh?ng ??m b?o th¨¤nh c?ng ? M? r?ng kinh doanh th?ng minh b?ng t¨ªch h?p c¨¢c l?nh v?c d?a tr¨ºn h? th?ng qu?n tr? doanh nghi?p hi?u qu? V?n h¨®a doanh nghi?p v?ng m?nh N?ng l?c l?nh ??o xu?t s?c ?? t?o ra t¨ªch h?p xuy¨ºn su?t Qu?n tr? doanh nghi?p m?nh Ph?n t¨ªch kinh doanh xu?t s?c.. K? ho?ch tho¨¢i v?n r? r¨¤ng v¨¤ ki¨ºn ??nh ¡°If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.¡± Warren Buffet 17
Disclaimer This presentation is issued by Dragon Capital Management Limited (¡°Dragon Capital¡±) on behalf of Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, Vietnam Growth Fund Limited, Vietnam Dragon Fund Limited, Vietnam Resource Investments (Holdings) Limited or the Vietnam Property Fund Limited (collectively the ¡°Dragon Capital Funds¡±) for the information of shareholders in the Dragon Capital Funds and other eligible recipients. This presentation is a review of the investment case for Vietnam and is neither a prospectus nor an offer or invitation to apply for shares and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract of commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this presentation is for background purposes only and is subject to updating, revision and amendment, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made, and no liability whatsoever is accepted by Dragon Capital or any other person, in relation thereto. Any investment must be made on the basis of the prospectuses of the Dragon Capital Funds alone and this presentation may only be distributed to those eligible to receive those prospectuses. Investors are shareholders in the Dragon Capital Funds and not customers of Dragon Capital. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of shares in the Dragon Capital Funds and the income derived there from may go down as well as up. ? Dragon Capital Management Limited 2010. All rights reserved. The information contained in this presentation is strictly confidential and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom Dragon Capital have provided the report. No part of this report may be divulged to any other person, distributed, resold and/or reproduced without the prior written permission of Dragon Capital. 18 18

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4_Hoi Nghi Dau Tu_2013-Dominic Scriven_VN

  • 2. M? r?ng ?¨¤u t? ?a ng¨¤nh c¨® ph?i l¨¤ xu h??ng t?i ch?u ?? C¨¢c c?ng ty ?a ng¨¤nh chi?m 80% doanh thu c?a 50 c?ng ty h¨¤ng ??u H¨¤n Qu?c, 90% ? ?n ?? v¨¤ 40% ? Trung Qu?c (2010) Ngu?n: Understanding Asia¡¯s conglomerates, McKinsey Data excludes financial conglomerates and state-owned enterprises 2
  • 3. ??nh ki?n v¨¤ v¨ª d? v? s? th?t b?i c?a kinh doanh ?a ng¨¤nh D?a v¨¤o quan h? ch¨ªnh tr? Tr? gi¨¢ qu¨¢ cao cho vi?c ?i th?u t¨®m c¨¢c c?ng ty Ch?n ch? trong vi?c c?t b? c¨¢c kho?n ??u t? k¨¦m hi?u qu? Thi?u m?t chi?n l??c xuy¨ºn su?t v¨¤ b?n v?ng C? ch? qu?n tr? doanh nghi?p y?u 3
  • 4. V¨ª d? c?a kinh doanh ?a ng¨¤nh th¨¤nh c?ng 4
  • 5. V¨ª d? c?a kinh doanh ?a ng¨¤nh th¨¤nh c?ng $m 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2007 Net revenue Net profit GE 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2007 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 Net revenue Net profit Berkshire Hathaway $m 2010 2011 2012 2013 $m 2008 2009 2010 2011 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2012 2013 Net revenue Net profit 35,000 Hutchison Whampoa 120 30,000 100 25,000 80 20,000 60 15,000 40 10,000 20 5,000 0 2007 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5
  • 6. V¨ª d? c?a kinh doanh ?a ng¨¤nh th¨¤nh c?ng: ?i?u ki?n c?n ??u ¨®c ph?n t¨ªch kinh doanh xu?t s?c C? c?u t¨¤i ch¨ªnh v?ng m?nh Li Ka Shing (Hutchinson Whampoa) Qu?n tr? doanh nghi?p m?nh N?ng l?c l?nh ??o xu?t s?c ?? t?o ra chi?n l??c t¨ªch h?p xuy¨ºn su?t K? ho?ch tho¨¢i v?n ki¨ºn ??nh Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) 6
  • 7. VIETNAM: gi¨¢ tr? t¨¤i s?n ?nh h??ng ??n quy?t ??nh c?a doanh nghi?p B?NG N? HY V?NG TH?C T?NH ? Ch?ng kho¨¢n v¨¤ b?t ??ng s?n t?ng m?nh - Chi ph¨ª v?n r? - D? d¨¤ng huy ??ng v?n - ??u t? v¨¤o ng?n h¨¤ng / b?t ??ng s?n / c? phi?u ?a d?ng h¨®a - Kh?ng c¨°n ngu?n ti?n d? d¨¤ng - Gi¨¢ t¨¤i s?n gi?m m?nh - Hy v?ng ph?c h?i - Hy v?ng s? can thi?p c?a ch¨ªnh ph? - Nh?n th?c ???c th?c t? - B?t ??u gi?m n? - Quay tr? v? kinh doanh c?t l?i Tr? v? kinh doanh c?t l?i 7
  • 8. L?ch s? huy ??ng v?n VND bn V?N C? PH?N N? 70,000 60,000 50,000 158% 225% 40,000 62,434 60,924 30,000 20,000 10,000 23,590 19,221 2006 2009 2006 2009 Ngu?n: Top 50 c?ng ty c?a 2006, Bloomberg 8
  • 9. Thu nh?p kh?ng ?n ??nh do ??u t? d¨¤n tr?i 120% EBIT growth NPAT growth 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -20% -40% 9
  • 10. Nh?ng c?ng ty theo chi?n l??c t?p trung t?i Vi?t Nam D??c H?u Giang VNDbn 3,500 3,000 140,000 160,000 Net revenue 20,000 Net profit 100,000 DHG 2,000 80,000 1,500 60,000 1,000 140,000 Net profit 120,000 Net revenue 2,500 VINAMILK VNDbn 25,000 120,000 VNM 15,000 100,000 40,000 500 20,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Net revenue 1,600 Net profit 1,400 BMP 80,000 70,000 60,000 1,200 50,000 1,000 40,000 800 30,000 600 400 20,000 200 10,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 60,000 40,000 5,000 20,000 - 2007 90,000 1,800 10,000 2013 Nh?a B¨¬nh Minh VNDbn 2,000 80,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 FPT VNDbn 30,000 200,000 Net revenue 180,000 Net profit 25,000 160,000 FPT 140,000 20,000 120,000 15,000 100,000 80,000 10,000 60,000 40,000 5,000 20,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10
  • 11. Nh?ng c?ng ty theo chi?n l??c t?p trung t?i Vi?t Nam Thu h¨²t v?n: Room d¨¤nh cho kh?i ngo?i lu?n k¨ªn k? t? n?m 2011 Source: CafeF 11
  • 12. Nh?ng c?ng ty theo chi?n l??c t?p trung - Th? gi?i COCA COLA $m 60,000 50,000 50 Net revenue Net profit Coca Cola 45 40 300,000 250,000 200,000 15 150,000 10 100,000 20 5 50,000 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TECENT HOLDINGS 450 700 HK Equity 40 30 0 2008 2009 3,000 2,500 10,000 100 5,000 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 151 HK Equity 150 15,000 2012 14 Net profit 200 20,000 2011 Net revenue 250 25,000 2010 WANT WANT CHINA HOLDINGS 3,500 300 30,000 2009 $m 4,000 50 350 Net profit 2008 0 2007 60 400 Net revenue 35,000 0 2007 70 350,000 20 10,000 40,000 80 WMT US Equity 25 20,000 45,000 400,000 90 Net profit 30 30,000 $m 50,000 450,000 WALMART Net revenue 35 40,000 0 2007 $m 500,000 12 10 8 2,000 6 1,500 4 1,000 2 500 0 2008 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12
  • 13. Nh?ng c?u chuy?n th¨¤nh c?ng Qu?n tr? chi ph¨ª t?t ¡°Everyday low price¡± T¨ªch h?p nhu?n nhuy?n c¨¢c l?nh v?c kinh doanh To¨¤n c?u h¨®a H??ng t?i ph¨¢t tri?n b?n v?ng V?n h¨®a doanh nghi?p v?ng m?nh S¨¢ng t?o 13
  • 14. Tr??ng h?p c? c?u l?i nhu?n c?a FPT C? C?U L?I NHU?N C?A FPT 100% 20.5 43.6 61.2 99.9 134.4 146.2 190.5 90% 173.1 224.1 209.5 229.5 301.0 367.3 421.4 356.8 540.0 601.4 800.7 894.5 917.0 535.5 595.6 80% 70% 227.6 60% 50% 180.0 320.7 40% 414.8 30% 20% 484.0 578.8 364.3 378.2 521.0 434.6 478.4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 474.0 420.8 10% 0% 2007 Distribution 2008 Integration Telecom Software exports Education 14
  • 15. VINAMILK: M? r?ng theo chi?u ngang S?A N??C YOGURT TH?C U?NG 15
  • 16. C¨¢c c?ng ty kinh doanh t?p trung c?ng c¨® r?i ro Chu k? kinh t? thay ??i C?ng ngh? thay ??i L?i s?ng thay ??i Thi?u hi?u bi?t v? th? tr??ng m?i 16
  • 17. K?t lu?n ? Chi?n l??c t?p trung ch?a bao gi? l?i th?i ? C¨¢c c?ng ty theo ?u?i chi?n l??c t?p trung c¨® v? d? d¨¤ng thu h¨²t v?n ? Tuy nhi¨ºn, t?p trung trong tr?ng th¨¢i ng? qu¨ºn kh?ng ??m b?o th¨¤nh c?ng ? M? r?ng kinh doanh th?ng minh b?ng t¨ªch h?p c¨¢c l?nh v?c d?a tr¨ºn h? th?ng qu?n tr? doanh nghi?p hi?u qu? V?n h¨®a doanh nghi?p v?ng m?nh N?ng l?c l?nh ??o xu?t s?c ?? t?o ra t¨ªch h?p xuy¨ºn su?t Qu?n tr? doanh nghi?p m?nh Ph?n t¨ªch kinh doanh xu?t s?c.. K? ho?ch tho¨¢i v?n r? r¨¤ng v¨¤ ki¨ºn ??nh ¡°If you don't have a competitive advantage, don't compete.¡± Warren Buffet 17
  • 18. Disclaimer This presentation is issued by Dragon Capital Management Limited (¡°Dragon Capital¡±) on behalf of Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, Vietnam Growth Fund Limited, Vietnam Dragon Fund Limited, Vietnam Resource Investments (Holdings) Limited or the Vietnam Property Fund Limited (collectively the ¡°Dragon Capital Funds¡±) for the information of shareholders in the Dragon Capital Funds and other eligible recipients. This presentation is a review of the investment case for Vietnam and is neither a prospectus nor an offer or invitation to apply for shares and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract of commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this presentation is for background purposes only and is subject to updating, revision and amendment, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made, and no liability whatsoever is accepted by Dragon Capital or any other person, in relation thereto. Any investment must be made on the basis of the prospectuses of the Dragon Capital Funds alone and this presentation may only be distributed to those eligible to receive those prospectuses. Investors are shareholders in the Dragon Capital Funds and not customers of Dragon Capital. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of shares in the Dragon Capital Funds and the income derived there from may go down as well as up. ? Dragon Capital Management Limited 2010. All rights reserved. The information contained in this presentation is strictly confidential and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom Dragon Capital have provided the report. No part of this report may be divulged to any other person, distributed, resold and/or reproduced without the prior written permission of Dragon Capital. 18 18