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George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
A Game of War
The Employment of Private Military Forces in Protracted Social Conflict
Ivan Torres
CONF 642: Integration of Theory and Practice
April 30, 2017
George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
AGENDA
? Motivations for Research
? Framing the Problem
? Conflict Background
? Research Question
? From Research Question to Theory (Hypotheses)
? Case Study: Hezbollah in Syira
? Justification & Applicability to the Field
George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
Motivations for Research
A Security Gap?
? The inability of state security forces (Militaries, police, etc.) to maintain or regain social
order
Utility of Military Force in Conflict
? Really just to ¡°¡­kill people and break things¡±?
The increasingly interconnected world
? What does this mean for how Societies should employ military force in intrastate
conflict?
Fragmented Socities & impowered individuals in democractic society
? What will network societies do to fill security gaps...what does this mean for the state?
Cultural implications of transnational conflict
? What approaches best aid in reducing violence and ending conflict?
George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
Framing the Problem
The Puzzle of Private Military Forces in Protracted Social Conflict
? Effectiveness of military forces (professionalism vs. social cohesion)
Fracturing of the geopolitical structure of conflict management
? The role of identity in shaping conflict (i.e. shifting calculus of reason in conflict)
Globalization and the democratization
? The rise of Neomedivealism (multi-layered competing authorities that seek mutually
beneficial relationships)
These trend have resulted in more fluid, volatile and dynamic conflicts
If conflict is not a single, fixed, interpretive construct because
audiences can understand war in their own way, then what does this
mean for the utility of military force in societal warfare?
George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
Conflict Background
Why study Syria?
1. The Syrian Civil War has dramatically
shifted and changed the character of war.
2. The geostrategic nature of the Middle
Eastern battleground has made it the
primer ¡°testing lab¡± for applying and
understanding the impact of new
concepts.
3. Syria¡¯s solution to the problem of Societal
Warfare
4. Syria as an exemplar of Neomedivealism
***This map graphically depicts the situation
in Syria in late 2012 ¨C 2013.***
George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
This study asks whether the tactical effectiveness of private
military forces employed by the Syrian government against
Syrian Opposition Forces produces the conditions
necessary for state security forces to effectively neutralize
ethno-nationalism for retaining durable sovereignty of the
state?
Research Question
George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
Hypotheses:
? H1: Authoritarian States will employ PMFs if their security forces are designed
to maintain regime survival and not confront mass popular uprisings.
? H2: Authoritarian States will employ PMFs if their security forces are
insufficient in quantity and quality to meet internal security threats.
? H3: Authoritarian States will employ PMFs if their security forces have been
reduced to a level that requires the need to employ PMFs to augment state
military capability and capacity.
? H4: Authoritarian States will employ PMFs if it becomes politically necessary to
regain minimal public support by handing security responsibility to a perceived
impartial entity and not repressive state forces.
From Research Question to Theory
Uniform Theory: When combined with the hybrid war concept, Middle Eastern states and military forces
must remain adaptable and move beyond indiscriminate violence and engage in social mobilization that is
wed to a strong narrative of resistance to turn military advantage into political gain.
George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
Case Study: Hezbollah in Syria
1. State forces woefully
unprepared to defeat
Opposition
2. Syrian Opposition
rooted social movements
and globally connected.
3. Government forced to
make concession with
Sunni civic and religious
leaders.
4. Syrian Military and
Police forces successful
in holding Alawite
stronghold, not
consolidating success.
Advantages of Employing Hezbollah in Conflict:
1) Tactical expertise in training units to conduct counterinsurgency / civil affairs /
Social relations operations.
2) Access to alternate streams of finance to support War Economy.
3) Hezbollah fighters more creative and adaptive on the battlefield.
4) Hezbollah Leaders successful in post-operation civil affairs to quell resistance.
George Mason University
School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution
Justification & Applicability to the CAR Field
¡°In the whole range of human activities, war most resembles a game of cards.¡±
-Major General Carl von Clausewitz, 1832
1. Battlefield Effectiveness Redux ¨C Hezbollah is a better military
organization than the Syrian Army and Syrian Opposition.
2. Private Military Forces possess the capability and capacity to be successful
in a Neomediveal order.
3. Objectives have changed¡­outlast opponents, not to destroy them.
Comcluding Observations: Conflict cannot be centered strictly on the deployment of large, well-equipped
troops whose primary mission is to overwhelm their adversary in major-theater combat. Military means
can no longer seek military ends, this has been eclipsed by an approach designed to win over the
population. Military success rests in political victory¡­the preservation of social institutions to bridge the
divide of distrust between the governed and the governor to satisfy neglected needs that violent
competitors fill through brutal actions.

More Related Content

A Game of War: The Employment of Private Military Forces in Protracted Social Conflict

  • 1. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution A Game of War The Employment of Private Military Forces in Protracted Social Conflict Ivan Torres CONF 642: Integration of Theory and Practice April 30, 2017
  • 2. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution AGENDA ? Motivations for Research ? Framing the Problem ? Conflict Background ? Research Question ? From Research Question to Theory (Hypotheses) ? Case Study: Hezbollah in Syira ? Justification & Applicability to the Field
  • 3. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution Motivations for Research A Security Gap? ? The inability of state security forces (Militaries, police, etc.) to maintain or regain social order Utility of Military Force in Conflict ? Really just to ¡°¡­kill people and break things¡±? The increasingly interconnected world ? What does this mean for how Societies should employ military force in intrastate conflict? Fragmented Socities & impowered individuals in democractic society ? What will network societies do to fill security gaps...what does this mean for the state? Cultural implications of transnational conflict ? What approaches best aid in reducing violence and ending conflict?
  • 4. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution Framing the Problem The Puzzle of Private Military Forces in Protracted Social Conflict ? Effectiveness of military forces (professionalism vs. social cohesion) Fracturing of the geopolitical structure of conflict management ? The role of identity in shaping conflict (i.e. shifting calculus of reason in conflict) Globalization and the democratization ? The rise of Neomedivealism (multi-layered competing authorities that seek mutually beneficial relationships) These trend have resulted in more fluid, volatile and dynamic conflicts If conflict is not a single, fixed, interpretive construct because audiences can understand war in their own way, then what does this mean for the utility of military force in societal warfare?
  • 5. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution Conflict Background Why study Syria? 1. The Syrian Civil War has dramatically shifted and changed the character of war. 2. The geostrategic nature of the Middle Eastern battleground has made it the primer ¡°testing lab¡± for applying and understanding the impact of new concepts. 3. Syria¡¯s solution to the problem of Societal Warfare 4. Syria as an exemplar of Neomedivealism ***This map graphically depicts the situation in Syria in late 2012 ¨C 2013.***
  • 6. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution This study asks whether the tactical effectiveness of private military forces employed by the Syrian government against Syrian Opposition Forces produces the conditions necessary for state security forces to effectively neutralize ethno-nationalism for retaining durable sovereignty of the state? Research Question
  • 7. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution Hypotheses: ? H1: Authoritarian States will employ PMFs if their security forces are designed to maintain regime survival and not confront mass popular uprisings. ? H2: Authoritarian States will employ PMFs if their security forces are insufficient in quantity and quality to meet internal security threats. ? H3: Authoritarian States will employ PMFs if their security forces have been reduced to a level that requires the need to employ PMFs to augment state military capability and capacity. ? H4: Authoritarian States will employ PMFs if it becomes politically necessary to regain minimal public support by handing security responsibility to a perceived impartial entity and not repressive state forces. From Research Question to Theory Uniform Theory: When combined with the hybrid war concept, Middle Eastern states and military forces must remain adaptable and move beyond indiscriminate violence and engage in social mobilization that is wed to a strong narrative of resistance to turn military advantage into political gain.
  • 8. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution Case Study: Hezbollah in Syria 1. State forces woefully unprepared to defeat Opposition 2. Syrian Opposition rooted social movements and globally connected. 3. Government forced to make concession with Sunni civic and religious leaders. 4. Syrian Military and Police forces successful in holding Alawite stronghold, not consolidating success. Advantages of Employing Hezbollah in Conflict: 1) Tactical expertise in training units to conduct counterinsurgency / civil affairs / Social relations operations. 2) Access to alternate streams of finance to support War Economy. 3) Hezbollah fighters more creative and adaptive on the battlefield. 4) Hezbollah Leaders successful in post-operation civil affairs to quell resistance.
  • 9. George Mason University School for Conflict Analysis & Resolution Justification & Applicability to the CAR Field ¡°In the whole range of human activities, war most resembles a game of cards.¡± -Major General Carl von Clausewitz, 1832 1. Battlefield Effectiveness Redux ¨C Hezbollah is a better military organization than the Syrian Army and Syrian Opposition. 2. Private Military Forces possess the capability and capacity to be successful in a Neomediveal order. 3. Objectives have changed¡­outlast opponents, not to destroy them. Comcluding Observations: Conflict cannot be centered strictly on the deployment of large, well-equipped troops whose primary mission is to overwhelm their adversary in major-theater combat. Military means can no longer seek military ends, this has been eclipsed by an approach designed to win over the population. Military success rests in political victory¡­the preservation of social institutions to bridge the divide of distrust between the governed and the governor to satisfy neglected needs that violent competitors fill through brutal actions.

Editor's Notes

  • #2: This research project explores the challenges Private Military Forces (PMFs) impose on conflict management and transformation methodologies. Through a better understanding of how high social fragmentation and factionalism, linkages between armed groups, and the use of asymmetric combat strategies in contemporary conflict this paper will illustrate how the changing character of war has blurred the lines of political considerations pursued through military operations.
  • #3: This presentation will provide a general overview of my motives behind this research topic. I will provide a brief background on the current intrastate conflict in Syria, present my research question, theory, and hypotheses and then conclude with what I learned and how my research outcomes are applicable to the CAR field.
  • #4: War is a societal process, not just a military endeavor. The outbreak of hostilities among military forces is but one manifestation of warfare, normally occurring at the end of a long process of social disintegration which leads to conflict as opposed to the beginning of a struggle that is unique unto itself. War is traditionally understood as a polarized contest (i.e. that war is fought between sides, even if there are multiple parties, that are separated and aligned as two sets of allies). This distinction is necessary for war to function in its traditional capacity as an instrument of policy (i.e. to provide a military outcome that sets conditions for a political solution). This distinction between one¡¯s side and a clearly defined enemy¡± allows for war to provide a see-saw-like, mutually exclusive outcome (regardless of the outcome being absolute, the overall success or failure of any one side is relative to the other, i.e. the enemy). This theoretical construct of the application of military force was useful in an international system dominated by closed nation-states who held a monopoly on the utility of violence. However, globalization and the democratization of the international system has lead to the growth of weak governance, weak boarder control, and social grievances to create an environment in which local politics is having an increasingly disproportionally affect on the political considerations of the use of force. These trends have made intrastate conflict more fluid, volatile and dynamic turning these conflicts into protracted, high-casualties wars making it harder for mediators to identify potential partners for peace negotiations, fully apprehend developments on the ground and craft contingency plans accordingly.
  • #5: In his 1977 seminal work, The Anarchical Society, Bull postulated that if modern states were compelled to compete with regional, international, and sub-national actors in a system of overlapping authority and multiple loyalties for their citizens, and that the instability caused by this dynamic was balanced and centered by supranational identity, then the concept of state sovereignty would cease to exist and a neomedieval political order would characterize the international system. In the Middle East, the The backlash to globalization and democratization has been the cleavage of political Islamist movements into two principal camps; those who sought to moderate their politics on the foundational tenets of democracy (i.e. Popular sovereignty, alternation of power, political pluralism, increased women¡¯s & minority rights, etc.), and those who rejected political moderation and democratic reform as foreign to the nature of Muslim society in favor of a strict interpretation of Islamic Exceptionalism as a means to bring about a myopic traditional Islamic society. The brute application of state force to repress both types of political Islamist movements became counterintuitive for Arab regimes. Military tactics and techniques of ¡°pain and violence¡± to render the capacity of opposition movements to resist state authority clashes with public policy initiatives to reduce the desire of the populace to support illicit activities, often rendering the internal use of military power ¡°terrible beyond endurance. State forces have increasingly become profession and distant from the dynamic of social order and civic interaction in democratic societies.
  • #10: Transnational Conflict cannot be centered strictly on the deployment of large, well-equipped troops whose primary mission is to overwhelm their adversary in major-theater combat. The manner in which these conflicts are being fought is dramatically changing the character of warfare, making it more social. The kill-capture approach is clearly only a small component of the large structure of the tactical employment of military force in the form of the engagement to achieve policy goals, the ultimate of which is to secure a peaceful and prosperous social order. Therefore, military means can no longer seek military ends, this has been eclipsed by an approach designed to win over the population. Likewise, policy-makers must come to realize that many current laws intended to combat crime or govern the use of force in war to not jibe well with the changing character of war. Civic institutions and the laws that govern them must be reflective of this and change social conditions to such a degree that populations gain a sense of security that bridges the divide of distrust between the governed and the governor to satisfy neglected needs that violent competitors fill through their own brutal means.