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Editor's Notes

• #2: My name is Uwe Gutschow. I’m from a creative agency in Huntington Beach, California, called INNOCEAN. In the work that we do for our clients we are constantly trying to create a real connection with brands and people. My background spans across creative and strategy. So I’m always trying to see how we get better at that connection. The topic of my talk today is really about what’s next in advertising in a predictive, programmatic world. And it really comes down to two questions…
• #3: I think a case could be made for each of these. Today I’m not here to prescribe the answer, but rather to present a series of thoughts that hopefully makes us all think before we blindly accept.
• #4: 90% of data, collected in the last 2 years. In a world that’s become more and more scientific (better targeting, more optimization, programmatic buying), do we run the risk of losing our ability to emotionally connect with people… and does this even still matter? Have we lost the magic? As marketers we love data. And why wouldn’t we. It validates our decisions and a lot of the informs it.  Drilling down too much into segmentation, we run the risk of slicing the pie even finer for marginal returns. Eventually we’ll need a paradigm shift, a new, different approach… and then we’ll optimize that too.
• #5: There’s a reason all skin care product advertising looks like this: Too much reliance on data and focus groups creates a sea of sameness… A pattern that’s all the same.   The creative paradigm… breaks convention, breaks the rules and get’s noticed and talked about.
• #9: We no longer live in a world where advertising messages alone inform the brand. People own and control. Marc Shillum from Method wrote a paper on the concept of Brands as Patterns. So much of advertising approach is reptition. Make an ad and make sure people see it x times. Consistency in human behavior is not derived from repetition alone; it is about the formation and recognition of coherent patterns. Patterns are the way our brains perceive actions, thoughts, memory, and behavior to ultimately inform belief. They allow for differences while creating a whole. Patterns are unique in the fact that they create consistency around difference and variation. Creating a believable and consistent brand begins with the creation of coherent patterns. So a brand that behaves in a certain way starts creating a distinct pattern. The previous examples hardly have a unique pattern. So what happens if a brand breaks out of this sea of sameness and start creating their own patter…
• #10: Redefining beauty in a superficial world. Once this creative paradigm has been shifted, others try and emulate. Started from a research initiative that Unilever started to learn about how woman felt about themselves, that said only 2% of women globally thought they were beautiful.
• #12: That’s exactly what Dove has done.. Dove tapped into an obvious human truth - Women are their own worst critics. Through Real Beauty Sketches they connect to women on emotional level and make them think differently about beauty. As marketers we need to look for the true insight. Love it or hate it, they’ve established a clear pattern of brand behavior. 70 million views. But of course once this creative paradigm shifts, other brands follow….see what you think of this.
• #14: But sometimes it can backfire. Let’s take a look at another vertical that produces a sea of sameness. Another industry that creates advertising that all looks the same is car advertising. Here’s an example of an ad we did that promoted a product we created for our client Hyundai.
• #16: We distill what the insight is. Why people would care, what’s important to them.
• #17: Here’s the larger case study. This is an idea that came from listening and then was optimized using key behavior data.
• #18: At Innocean our social media group is called StoryLab. The mission of this service is to maximize the organic share. When we created this work, we created it for social from the ground up. We developed a survivability score that would create competitive sharing. Always asking why would people care to share and why would their friends click. Initially it was a star rating, but after much deliberation we ended up with a percentage score. So my car would be 85% likely to survive the zombie apocalypes and this is what I would challenge my friends with on social. Once we designed this component, we built the rest of the app.
• #19: But the data is getting better at predicting… or is it? It was scary when a statistical model deployed by the guest marketing analytics team at Target correctly inferred based on purchasing datathat one of its customers—sorry, guests—a teenage girl in Minnesota, was pregnant, based on an arcane formula involving elevated rates of buying unscented lotion, mineral supplements, and cotton balls. Target started sending her coupons for baby gear, much to the consternation of her father, who, with his puny human inferential power, was still in the dark. This was heavily publicised. What we don’t know was how many coupons were sent to people that weren’t actually pregnant. As marketers we want to believe the data. Data is tangible and gives us validation, but we still have a long way to go..
• #20: In March 2014 David Lazer, an associate professor at Northeastern University, published a paper showing that Google Flu Trends had overestimated flu level for 100 out of 108 weeks when compared with authoritative figures from the US Centres for Disease Control (CDC), overstated by almost a factor of two.   The problem was that Google did not know – could not begin to know – what linked the search terms with the spread of flu. Google’s engineers weren’t trying to figure out what caused what. They were merely finding statistical patterns in the data. They cared about ­correlation rather than causation. This is common in big data analysis. Figuring out what causes what is hard (impossible, some say). Figuring out what is correlated with what is much cheaper and easier.   If you have no idea what is behind a correlation, you have no idea what might cause that correlation to break down.    Google Flu Trends will bounce back, recalibrated with fresh data – and rightly so. “Big data” has arrived, but big insights have not. The challenge now is to solve new problems and gain new answers – without making the same old statistical mistakes on a grander scale than ever.
• #21: No Doubt we’ll get better, but we can’t even predict the weather accurately. Perhaps this explains the Google flu trends forecast. People saw the forecast and started searching for flu medicine.… and human behavior is far more complex thanks to…
• #22: Does the mind control the heart or does the heart control the mind?! Emotion is like weather. It’s part of our nature and shaped by the environment. We don’t choose our emotions. We can only try to choose how to think about them once they happen – Douglas van Pratt authoer of unconscious branding. Marketers are the architects of emotional reactions. And even emotion we are now trying to better understand through science.
• #27: But we also don’t want to end up here again… because that’s what science tells us…
• #29: Art precedes science by about 10 years. John Lasster – art challenges technology, technology inspires art.
• #30: Minority report gestural interface. Movie from 2002. Steven Spielberg tapped MIT professor John Underkoffler to design computer interfaces 40 years in the future. Taking it on as a personal challenge after the movie, John and his team built a prototype in less than 5 years.
• #31: Since then kinect launched in 2010 and now it’s gone even further to .. 2012 - This device. Show leap motion. A $99 device that tracks gestural hand movements.
• #32: Go and imagine. here’s some help.
• #33: Go on Kickstarter and fund something Start with the following: robotics, 3d printing, Kinect/Leapmotion, iwatch. If you have kids, learn through them. My 5 year old son Micah is playing with technology and it’s unlocking his imagination and creativity. Explaing how he’s used Makey makey to construct a game (photo), building his own robotic (video), leap motion (deconstructing a skull).
• #38: Makey makey, 3d printer. Moss robotics.
• #41: It’s a world of let’s try and see, instead of the reasons why something won’t work.  What does this have to do with marketing? We need to re-wire our brains, unlock the creativity and divergent thinking we once had when we were kids. As we get older we are taught to think more convergent. We question why things would work. When we are little we don’t limit our thinking. Perhaps it’s time for us to say more why not. To open our minds first and then use our rational minds to validate.