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Mike Cohn
Norwegian Developer��s Conference
6 June 2014
Agile Estimating
? Copyright Mountain Goat Software
?
Agenda
What is agile planning?
Story points
Ideal time
Estimating with Planning Poker
1
2

?
Iteration Backlog
Code the UI 12
Write tests 8
Code middle tier 4
Update docs 6
Automate tests 5
As a user��
Product Backlog
As a user��
As a user��
As a user��
As a user��
3
5
5
2
2
We��re talking
about these
right now
?
��to drive to
Paris?
��to read the
last Harry Potter
book?
How long will it take��
3
4

?
Size Calculation Duration
300
kilograms
Velocity
=20
300/20 = 15
iterations
Estimate size; derive duration
?
Measures of size
Traditional
measures
of size
Lines of Code
Function Points
Agile
measures
of size
Story points
Ideal days
5
6

?
Story points
How long a user story will take (e?ort)
Influenced by complexity, uncertainty, risk,
volume of work, etc.
Relative values are what is important:
A login screen is a 2.
A search feature is an 8.
Basic math properties should hold
5+5 = 10
?
Estimating in zoo points
Lion
Kangaroo
Rhinoceros
Bear
Giraffe
Gorilla
Hippopotamus
Tiger
7
8

?
Agenda
Story points
Ideal time
?
Ideal Time
How long something
will take if:
? it��s all you work on
? no one interrupts you
? and everything you
need is available
9
10

?
Elapsed time vs. ideal time
?Monday has 8 hours
?Each week has 40
hours
Ideally
Each day has something like:
?2 hours of meetings
?2 hours of email
?4 hours left for the project
But instead
��How long will this
take?��
?Are you answering
what is being
asked?
?
Story points are additive; time-based
estimates may not be
1
Story points help avoid problems
with unit confusion
2
Two big advantages to story points
11
12

?
Confusing units
Iteration Backlog
Code the UI 12
Write tests 8
Code middle tier 4
Update docs 6
Automate tests 5
As a user��
Product Backlog
As a user��
As a user��
As a user��
As a user��
30
50
50
20
20
?
Agenda
Story points
Ideal time
13
14

?
Planning Poker?
An iterative approach to estimating
Steps
Each estimator is given a deck of cards, each card has
a valid estimate written on it
Customer/Product owner reads a story and it��s
discussed briefly
Each estimator selects a card that��s his or her estimate
Cards are turned at the same time
Discuss di?erences (especially outliers)
Re-estimate until estimates converge
?
Estimator Round 1
Trond 5
Ana 5
Maria 8
Johannes 20
Round 2
8
8
8
13
Planning Poker?�Can example
15
16

?
Product Backlog Items Estimate
Read (and understand) a high-level, 10-page overview of agile
software development in a celebrity news magazine.
Read (and understand) a densely written 5-page research paper
about agile software development in an academic journal.
Your uncle owns a clock store and wants to sell clocks over the
internet. Write a basic product backlog for him covering what
he��ll need his website to do.
Recruit, interview, and hire a new member for your team.
Create a 60-minute presentation about agile software
development for your coworkers.
Wash and wax your boss�� Porsche.
Read (and understand) a 150-page book on agile software
development.
Write a 5-page summary of this conference for your boss.
Estimate these
?
Free, or I
wouldn��t
mention it
www.PlanningPoker.com
17
18

?
FrontRowAgile.com
Online
video
training
?
mike@mountaingoatsoftware.com
www.mountaingoatsoftware.com
twitter: mikewcohn
(888) 61-AGILE
Mike Cohn
19
20

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