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Kamlesh Katolkar
Kamlesh Katolkar

This document analyzes different energy sources and their potential to replace carbon emitting sources. It finds that only sources with an energy flow density of 1,000 kW/m2 or more can economically replace usage at an industrial scale. Of non-carbon sources, only hydroelectric and nuclear meet this threshold. While geothermal could potentially meet it, its reserves are too small to significantly reduce required carbon reductions. Therefore, the document concludes nuclear energy is the only viable technical solution to meet energy demand while reducing carbon emissions at the levels needed by 2030-2035 and 2100.

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MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS Of ENERGY SOURCES
MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES GOAL – REPLACE 70-90% of CARBON EMITTING SOURCES HOW MUCH to REPLACE ? USAGE RESERVES ENERGY SOURCE ~2000 EJoules (1018) EJoules Years Under Earth surface (fossilized) OIL 140 6,000 40 Natural gas 85 5,000 70 Coal 90 30,000 300 TOTAL 130 On Earth surface (not yet fossilized) Biomass 55 deforestation/desertification TOTAL 370 REQUIRED REDUCTION by 2030-2035 (50%) 185 by 2100 (90%) 333
MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES WHAT ENERGY SOURCES are ECONOMICAL? • From a physics standpoint, this question was answered in the 1970’s by the Nobelist and Distinguished Membder of Soviet Academy of Sciences Peter Kapitza (Reserford’s student). • Using a Pointing vector of energy density and applying it experimentally, he found that industrial, or large scale, economical sources of energy must have high spatial rates of energy flow. • This excludes uses of energy that produce small amounts of energy, like for personal use (batteries, solar heaters, windmills, earth heat for shelters, etc.) • These high rates can be found ONLY when large differences exists in temperature, pressure, height, etc., anything that creates a high rate of USEFUL work under the 2nd law of thermodynamics. • The threshold for modern separation of useful and non-useful energy sources can be found in the existing uses of fossil fuels – in electric power plants, in automobile engines, in jet engines. • This threshold is approximately 1,000 kW/m2 or more.
EXAMPLE OF UNECONOMICAL ENERGY SOURCE Solar Electricity • Reasonable electric energy monthly bill for an American family is ~$150/mo • At an hourly rate of $15/h, it takes a breadwinner 10 h/mo to pay for electricity • If uneconomic electric energy is used, like solar (that is at least 10 times more expensive), it will take him 100 h/mo. • At the average monthly work rate of ~150 h/mo, it will take 2/3 of working time just to pay for electricity • Expanded over the society, two (2) people need to work for providing solar energy to keep only one (1) not doing so • Just like in Kenya in agriculture, three (3) people in the fields keep one (1) out of the fields • There will be the same early industrial socio-economic structure, with very limited liberty of pursuit LOWER ENERGY ECONOMICS → SMALLER LIBERTY of PURSUIT! MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES
APPLYING KAPITZA’S FINDING ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY FLOW DENSITY REPLACEMENT kW/m2 POTENTIAL CARBON EMITTING ~1,000 or more to be replaced by non-carbon emitting energy sources NON-CARBON EMITTING Solar less than one (1) NO Wind less than one (1) NO Geothermal substantially smaller than 1,000 MAYBE Hydroelectric sometimes comparable to 1,000 YES Nuclear ~1,000 or more YES MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES
REMAINING REPLACEMENT POTENTIAL ENERGY SOURCE in (1018) EJoules RESERVES CARBON EMITTING 130 years REQUIRED REDUCTION • by 2030-2035 (50%) 185 • by 2100 (90%) 333 NON-CARBON EMITTING ~2000 USAGE Geothermal 0.3 not feasible to increase 1,000 times Hydroelectric 9 water flow is decreasing due to global heating NUCLEAR 28 ~20 years with known Uranium reserves, open cycle ~2000 years with known Uranium reserves, closed cycle ~Million years with seawater reserves, closed cycle ~4 times more with use of Thorium THE ONLY CHOICE FOR SOLVING THE TECHNICAL CONTRADICTION IS THE USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES
HOUSE OF LORDS The Economics of Renewable Energy November 25, 2008 • Renewable electricity is clearly more expensive than fossil-fired and nuclear generation and leads to higher energy bills for consumers and businesses • The Government should not seek to increase further the use of biofuels • Full cost of wind generation remains significantly higher than those of conventional or nuclear generation, even before allowing for support costs and the environmental impact of wind farms • Solar generation is more costly than most other forms of renewable generation • The most reliable low-carbon alternative to renewables is nuclear power … and we support measures to include nuclear power plants as an essential element of the UK’s energy mix

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  • 2. MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES GOAL – REPLACE 70-90% of CARBON EMITTING SOURCES HOW MUCH to REPLACE ? USAGE RESERVES ENERGY SOURCE ~2000 EJoules (1018) EJoules Years Under Earth surface (fossilized) OIL 140 6,000 40 Natural gas 85 5,000 70 Coal 90 30,000 300 TOTAL 130 On Earth surface (not yet fossilized) Biomass 55 deforestation/desertification TOTAL 370 REQUIRED REDUCTION by 2030-2035 (50%) 185 by 2100 (90%) 333
  • 3. MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES WHAT ENERGY SOURCES are ECONOMICAL? • From a physics standpoint, this question was answered in the 1970’s by the Nobelist and Distinguished Membder of Soviet Academy of Sciences Peter Kapitza (Reserford’s student). • Using a Pointing vector of energy density and applying it experimentally, he found that industrial, or large scale, economical sources of energy must have high spatial rates of energy flow. • This excludes uses of energy that produce small amounts of energy, like for personal use (batteries, solar heaters, windmills, earth heat for shelters, etc.) • These high rates can be found ONLY when large differences exists in temperature, pressure, height, etc., anything that creates a high rate of USEFUL work under the 2nd law of thermodynamics. • The threshold for modern separation of useful and non-useful energy sources can be found in the existing uses of fossil fuels – in electric power plants, in automobile engines, in jet engines. • This threshold is approximately 1,000 kW/m2 or more.
  • 4. EXAMPLE OF UNECONOMICAL ENERGY SOURCE Solar Electricity • Reasonable electric energy monthly bill for an American family is ~$150/mo • At an hourly rate of $15/h, it takes a breadwinner 10 h/mo to pay for electricity • If uneconomic electric energy is used, like solar (that is at least 10 times more expensive), it will take him 100 h/mo. • At the average monthly work rate of ~150 h/mo, it will take 2/3 of working time just to pay for electricity • Expanded over the society, two (2) people need to work for providing solar energy to keep only one (1) not doing so • Just like in Kenya in agriculture, three (3) people in the fields keep one (1) out of the fields • There will be the same early industrial socio-economic structure, with very limited liberty of pursuit LOWER ENERGY ECONOMICS → SMALLER LIBERTY of PURSUIT! MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES
  • 5. APPLYING KAPITZA’S FINDING ENERGY SOURCE ENERGY FLOW DENSITY REPLACEMENT kW/m2 POTENTIAL CARBON EMITTING ~1,000 or more to be replaced by non-carbon emitting energy sources NON-CARBON EMITTING Solar less than one (1) NO Wind less than one (1) NO Geothermal substantially smaller than 1,000 MAYBE Hydroelectric sometimes comparable to 1,000 YES Nuclear ~1,000 or more YES MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES
  • 6. REMAINING REPLACEMENT POTENTIAL ENERGY SOURCE in (1018) EJoules RESERVES CARBON EMITTING 130 years REQUIRED REDUCTION • by 2030-2035 (50%) 185 • by 2100 (90%) 333 NON-CARBON EMITTING ~2000 USAGE Geothermal 0.3 not feasible to increase 1,000 times Hydroelectric 9 water flow is decreasing due to global heating NUCLEAR 28 ~20 years with known Uranium reserves, open cycle ~2000 years with known Uranium reserves, closed cycle ~Million years with seawater reserves, closed cycle ~4 times more with use of Thorium THE ONLY CHOICE FOR SOLVING THE TECHNICAL CONTRADICTION IS THE USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS of ENERGY SOURCES
  • 7. HOUSE OF LORDS The Economics of Renewable Energy November 25, 2008 • Renewable electricity is clearly more expensive than fossil-fired and nuclear generation and leads to higher energy bills for consumers and businesses • The Government should not seek to increase further the use of biofuels • Full cost of wind generation remains significantly higher than those of conventional or nuclear generation, even before allowing for support costs and the environmental impact of wind farms • Solar generation is more costly than most other forms of renewable generation • The most reliable low-carbon alternative to renewables is nuclear power … and we support measures to include nuclear power plants as an essential element of the UK’s energy mix