AMS 2011 talk - Weather & Agriculture
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This document summarizes the impacts of global agricultural weather in 2010 and provides an outlook for 2011. In 2010, weather events like droughts in Russia and Argentina impacted wheat production. Late-year droughts in Brazil and India reduced sugar output. High commodity prices resulted from tight supplies. Going forward in 2011, key factors to monitor include energy prices, global supply and demand balances, and weather conditions during crop development and growing seasons. La Nina conditions could significantly influence 2011 crop yields.
AMS 2011 talk - Weather & Agriculture
- 1. Global Agricultural Weather Impacts 2010 Review January 2011 Michael R. Ferrari, Weather Trends International American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 1 Seattle, WA 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 2. Topics for Discussion Global Agricultural Weather Highlights Major Stories from 2010 MacroEcon Background Mid油Year油Impacts油Russia/Argentina,油Wheat Late油Year油Impacts油油Brazil/India,油Sugar 2010/11油Impacts油油Australia,油Sugar,油Grains Global Commodity Market Impacts What to Expect in 2011 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 3. Global Macro Background - FAO food Price Index - US Currency Fluctuations - Global Stocks (& Stock-to-Use) 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 4. *source: FAO Sugar 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 5. Weaker USD provides Price Support 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International *source: FAO
- 6. Weaker USD provides Price Support 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International *source: FAO
- 7. Global Macro Background FOOD PRICE STOCKS-TO-USE US DOLLAR INDEX RATIOS Cyclical Behavior: Commodities more Another Peak in sensitive to daily Grains: Lowest 2011, or fluctuations: Reserves in ~ 30 SuperCycle油to油 translates in years Continue?? RawMat prices 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 8. 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 9. Start of 2011: Very Different Scenario vs. Last Year 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 10. Weather Served as the Trigger; Embargo Escalated Price Support 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 11. *source: WTI White Paper Library Dryness in Centre-South BR & Lack of rebound in IN kept market in Deficit 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 12. Oct/Nov 2009 Oct/Nov 2010 Queensland Rain will add to support in 2011 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 14. 2011 outlook Important fundamentals to monitor Another Interesting Year in Store: Energy: Following a lull, Crude Oil prices high once again with many analysts calling for $100+ oil by 2Q11. This, along with $USD movements will serve as the steering currents in the commodity spectrum for the start of the year. *Note: despite cold eastern US, NatGas still trading at a discount to oil. Global S&D: Increasing global demand for grains & oilseeds from both the food and fuel sectors looks to remain constant (once again) over the next 6-12 months. Longer term support in the biofuel sector is more speculative but currently strong, so upside pressure on supplies and prices for food raw materials should remain. Wildcard: Cotton. La Nina Transition: The next few months will be very important in assessing 2011 production and yields for major commercial crops. When USDA releases prospective acreage reports (Feb/Mar), this will be the first milestone in significantly adjusting supply expectations. 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 15. 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International
- 16. For any questions, please contact: Michael Ferrari, PhD Vice President, Applied Technology and Commodity Research Weather Trends International, USA Tel: 610 807 3582 Mobile: 484 542 0111 Email: mferrari@wxtrends.com 息 Copyright 2010 Weather Trends International