More Related Content
Similar to An introduction to Decision Workshops (20)
Recently uploaded (20)
An introduction to Decision Workshops
- 1. Decision Workshops Giving you the tools to understand, plan and focus on the politics of decision making Decision Workshops
- 3. Decision Workshops Actors always rehearse¡ 3
- 4. Decision Workshops Presenters sometimes rehearse ¡ 4
- 5. Decision Workshopsand we know that the more we rehearse and practice the more we improve¡. 5
- 6. Decision Workshopsbut we don¡¯t properly rehearse the most important ¡°political¡± interactions 6
- 7. Decision WorkshopsInstead there is a tendency to just rely on the unaided judgment of ourselves or of experts Even though the experts often disagree with each other
- 8. Decision Workshops But how good is this?
- 9. Decision Workshops These people were not short of expert advisors when they chose to invade Iraq and Afghanistan But had they thought through the consequences ?
- 10. Decision Workshops The scientific evidence is in:
- 11. Decision WorkshopsUsing judgment for political decision making is little better than random chance See evidence in Appendix
- 12. Decision Workshops So what can be done?
- 13. Decision WorkshopsDecision workshops gives you a way to rehearse and plan these important political decisions. 13 By using Confrontation Analysis
- 14. Decision Workshops Development of Confrontation Analysis 14
- 15. Decision Workshops Rupert Smith Bosnia 1995: Britain's last victorious war? General General Rupert Smith: Commander of UN forces in Bosnia: Responsible for breaking siege of Sarajevo. General Smith was not reluctant to tell people how he had succeeded He wrote the book ¡°The Utility of Force¡± and worked with¡.
- 16. Decision Workshops Rupert Smith Working with Rupert Smith¡ General The Late Professor Nigel Howard Who developed Confrontation Analysis as a development and refinement of Game Theory. Since Professor Howard¡¯s death the theory has been picked up and developed by¡
- 17. Decision Workshops Rupert Smith Carrying on the good work¡. General Mike Young Who has refined and built on this theoretical framework and encapsulated it in the Dilemma Explorer program to produce a faster, easier and better means of exploring confrontations and rehearsing negotiations.
- 18. Decision Workshops Our process 18 Building upon the foundations of the mathematical process of Confrontation Analysis, Decision Workshops has developed a unique modelling method and a proprietary software tool to that can analyse complex, multiplayer issues.
- 19. Decision Workshops Our process ? Define the problem ? Define players, what they can do, and what they want to happen ? Plan and develop strategy using Confrontation Analysis ? Test and refine strategy in Decision Workshop ? Present a clear focused strategy for action 19
- 20. Decision Workshops The Dilemma Explorer program in action 20
- 21. Decision Workshops 21 Firstly, we help you understand the scenarios by structuring in important key decisions The Dilemma Explorer program in action
- 22. Decision Workshops 22 And then gather an unambiguous clear statement of all parties¡¯ desires The Dilemma Explorer program in action
- 23. Decision Workshops 23 We then decide what will happen if no further progress can be made The Dilemma Explorer program in action
- 24. Decision Workshops 24 And indicate where distrust is present and where people don¡¯t believe threats or promises The Dilemma Explorer program in action
- 25. Decision Workshops The Dilemma Explorer program in action 25 To produce a succinct one screen summary of the situation
- 26. Decision Workshops The Dilemma Explorer program in action 26 The computer then automatically shows the areas of difficulty known as DILEMMAS that must be eliminated to get a trustworthy agreement
- 27. Decision Workshops 27 And can give an exhaustive list of possible ways forward to eliminate each dilemma The Dilemma Explorer program in action
- 28. Decision WorkshopsThe participants use the program on the screen during the negotiation rehearsal to: 28 ? Keep focus on the subject under negotiation ? Give a clear language in which to communicate ? Understand the dilemmas and powers of each participant ? Indicate when progress has been made by changing the screen ? Look for different strategies out of an impasse
- 29. Decision Workshops Decision Workshops track record 29
- 30. Decision Workshops Decision Workshops held ? Libya during the war : ? For Cranfield University ? Libya at the end of the war : ? For Defence Science and Technology Laboratories ? Iran Israel and the USA: Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear threat : ? For Cranfield University and defence intelligence services ? The Euro crisis: ? For city of London think tank Z/Yen ? Bahrain Government: Sunni / Shia
- 31. Decision Workshops Business deals ? For BAE Systems: 19 projects including: ? Getting funding from UK MoD for an unmanned aircraft (Mantis) ? Impact of Strategic Defence Reviews ? A400M project (twice) ? Partnering deals for bids
- 32. Decision Workshops Testimonial 32 ¡°The technology is simple but the underlying psychology, appealing to the individual¡¯s natural will to win, mirroring real business behaviours, is truly and very powerfully innovative.¡± Air Vice Marshal Steve Nicholl (Ret¡¯d): Director Military Requirements, BAE Systems
- 33. Decision Workshops Summary ? Tried, tested, powerful and unique system. ? Structured way of rehearsing negotiations and likely outcomes. ? High probability of behaviours reflecting reality, enabling cost-effective decision making and the efficient use and deployment of resources. ? Useful for government, military, commercial & individual applications. 33
- 34. Decision Workshops Appendix: Evidence to support the benefits of role play 34
- 35. Decision WorkshopsHow good are we at forecasting how others will behave in conflicts? Obscure conflicts
- 36. Decision Workshops What we would expect from random chance ? 3 possible answers: 33% probability of getting it right by guessing 6 answers =17% Average 4 answers =25%
- 37. Decision Workshops Using judgment is often WORSE then guessing ! Average
- 38. Decision Workshops Using Game Theory fares no better.. Average
- 39. Decision Workshops But a role play achieves substantially better forecasts Back Average
Editor's Notes
- #10: These gentlemen had a lot of experts to advise them, but they misjudged how others would behave. Even with lots of advisors, they were still basically muddling throughSo perhaps we should listen to others
- #11: Philip E. Tetlock, now the Leonore Annenberg University Professor in Democracy and Citizenship at Penn, provided exceptional support for the Seer-Sucker Theory with his 2005 book, Expert Political Judgment. The book describes the findings from Tetlock¡¯s 20-year study of 284 political and economic experts and their 82,361 forecasts during that time. As it turned out, the experts¡¯ forecasts were no more accurate than those of novices
- #36: Here is an experiment that was done. At the bottom here we have a selection of different situations, they are all things that actually happened, but they are quite obscure and disguised Here¡¯s an artist¡¯s protest, A fight about TV channel distributions, A Takeover, do I invest, A Takeover, and a Nurses dispute. Now each of these situations actually happened, we know the outcome. So what we did was took the real outcome, and mixed it with other things that may have happened, as a multiple choice test and then saw how good we are at predicting what will happen,
- #37: Now because this is a multiple choice test, you can often get the right result, just by guessing, there¡¯s six choices for artist¡¯s protest, 1 in 6 chance of getting it right by guessing, three for the distribution channel, one in three chance of guessing and so on. So (on average) we would expect to get about 27% right just by guessing. Let¡¯s see how we did using other methods.
- #38: FIRSTLY Unaided judgement. Nearly all decision making is of this form. If we just tell people to estimate what happens we get this¡. We do worse than guessing some of the time, better at others, but on average, we do miserably, Hardly better than guessing,
- #39: SECONDLYIf we use mathematical techniques such as Game Theory to predict the outcome, we do even works that with unaided judgment. This would have been better if the participants had not scored 0 on the ¡°Telco takeover¡± package.
- #40: THIRDLYIf we use role play we do much better. Role playing does seem to be able to predict the outcome of negotiations.