Apr 2017 - Some cooling but still hot outside: Toronto real estate market charts
- 1. Toronto Real Estate Monthly Charts Creative Commons license Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA Realtor Chalmers House by Blok 70 April 2017
- 2. Toronto Real Estate Monthly Market Charts Introduction You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean?? Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number youre seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow will add context and perspective to Torontos monthly real estate statistics. My focus is the 416, so I pull that out of TREBs numbers. I also separate Torontos two distinct market segments: houses and condos, because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
- 3. $297K YoY +25.7% $23K MoM +1.6% Toronto Real Estate Monthly Quick Facts Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Historic Housing Stats, Scott Ingram - Though Houses showed signs of cooling, prices $23K in April - Row houses broke the $1 million mark for the first time - More active listings and higher MOI indicate cooling, but price increases and lower DOM show still extreme sellers market territory Some cooling but still hot outside $137 YoY +30.4% $28K MoM +4.9% - Condo sale transactions are 16% YTD after an all-time high last year (23.7K) - People spent over $1.2 billion on Condo Apts for 2nd month in a row (1st time > $1B) - Active listings still way down ( 49% YoY), and more bids for less properties has pushed % of sales over list to new highs
- 4. Detached $1,578K / Semi $1,104K / Row $1,055K Apr vs. 16: $297K (25.7%) Apr vs. 12: $695K (92%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 13.9% - Average Rowhouse over $1 million for first time 416 Average Sold Price (Dollar volume 歎 number of transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Condo Apt $578K / Condo Townhouse $675K Apr vs. '16: $137K (30.4%) Apr vs. '12: $230K (64%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 10.4% - 5 year price growth now over 10% - Last 3 months of increases ($39K, $37K, $28K) more than increases of 17 of the last 20 full years 958 1,110 1,074 1,156 1,170 1,157 1,104 1,096 1,183 1,187 1,222 1,165 1,219 1,4381,430 1,453 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s Houses (Detached & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 421 444 428 452 456 459 438 459 462 474 484 476485 524 561 589 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s Condos (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 5. 416 Residential Sales Volume (number of sold transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Apr vs. '16: 9.6% (vs. Prior 5 years: 10%) YTD vs. '16: 3.6% - Prior 5 years stayed within 4% of the average 5-year volume as 416 houses essentially have a fixed supply - Lowest Apr sales since 2009, yet $2.48 billion spent on Houses in month was highest for any month ever Apr vs. '16: 5.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 27%) YTD vs. '16: 15.5% - 25th straight month of setting a monthly transaction volume record - May or June are usually the peak Condo sales months so interesting if this year peaks in April 672 1,162 1,513 1,889 2,102 2,066 1,320 1,162 1,508 1,532 1,394 715 626 1058 1654 1707 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Houses (Detached & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,000 1,609 2,066 2,297 2,468 2,472 2,134 2,217 2,039 2,143 1,937 1,350 1254 1818 2573 2411 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Condos (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 6. 416 Active Listings (snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Apr vs. '16: 40.1% (vs. Prior 5 years: 9%) YTD vs. '16: 10.1% - Active listings moved back towards 5 year norms, though are still 9% below. Many looked at the 40% YoY increase in isolation and called it a sign of people cashing out, but it appears to me as a return to norms Apr vs. '16: 48.6% (vs. Prior 5 years: 57%) YTD vs. '16: 56.8% - New listings for April were exactly the same as 2016, so increase in active listings due to less sales than March - Inventory levels still way below seasonal norms 3,491 3,718 4,028 4,177 4,249 4,041 3,608 3,134 3,111 2,791 2,203 1,3971529 1443 1546 2148 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Condos (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,168 1,300 1,392 1,452 1,633 1,456 1,283 1,119 1,629 1,612 1,307 599 679 836 1228 2034 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Houses (Detached & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 7. 416 Months Of Inventory (active listings at month end 歎 sales for month) Apr vs. '16: 0.4 months (55%) Apr vs. Prior 5 years: 0.0 months (0%) - April ends streak of 14 monthly record lows in a row - A balanced market is 5-7 months of inventory, so still well in sellers market (20 years and counting) Apr vs. '16: 0.9 months (51%) Apr vs. Prior 5 years: 1.8 months (66%) - 2nd month in a row Condo MOI < House (last time was Dec 08) - Condo MOI has been below 2.0 months for 14 consecutive months, the longest stretch below 2.0, and first time under 2.0 since Jan 09 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Houses (Detached & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Condos (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 8. 416 Average Days On Market (Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Apr vs. '16: 2.8 days (25%) Apr vs. Prior 5 years: 5.1 days (38%) - First time ever House DOM has dropped below 10 - Most other indicators showed easing in House market, but DOM got more extreme Apr vs. '16: 12.9 days (55%) Apr vs. Prior 5 years: 16.6 days (61%) - 3rd consecutive all-time low (old record low DOM was 20 in March 10) - Usually May and June have lowest DOM. Will this go even lower? 24 15 13 11 12 10 13 15 12 12 14 18 18 12 9 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Houses (Detached & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 39 31 24 23 22 22 23 24 23 21 21 23 22 16 12 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Condos (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 9. 416 Sold Over Asking (Sold properties at 101% of asking or more and Sold at 120% or more, as percent of total sales) century21.ca/scott.ingram 101% Apr vs. '16: 13% (solid lines) 120% Apr vs. '16: 19% (dashed lines) - Houses eased off from March highs - Anecdotally, I noticed more offer nights passing for underpriced properties, with the house coming immediately back on the market at a higher price 101% Apr vs. '16: 55% (solid lines) 120% Apr vs. '16: 21% (dashed lines) - Bidding wars ramped up quickly in condo market was nearly 4 times more prevalent than last April - Condos 20% or more above asking were very rare last year (0.8%), but occurred in 22% of April sales 40% 53% 58% 66% 68% 67% 57% 58% 63% 60% 53% 44% 59% 73% 81% 79% 6% 10% 12% 18% 21% 19% 15% 14% 16% 15% 15% 11% 18% 38% 45% 37% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Houses (Detached & Semi & Row) 2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA 20% over asking over asking over asking 20% over asking 10% 12% 16% 20% 24% 22% 20% 20% 24% 26% 27% 26% 41% 54% 71% 75% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%3% 7% 20% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Condos (Apt & Town) 2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA 20% over asking over asking over asking NEW
- 10. 416 Annual Price Increases (December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2017 compared to Dec 2016) century21.ca/scott.ingram 20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $60K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.6%. 20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $22K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.3%. 19 46 (11) 27 36 2 49 10 12 130 (51) 57 40 22 33 117 54 105 211 288 2 19 12 20 12 3 19 7 11 42 (34) 60 20 4 (6) 29 17 22 65 113 (100) (50) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 YTD $000s $ Increases Houses Condos 7% 17% (3%) 9% 11% 1% 13% 2% 3% 29% (9%) 11% 7% 3% 5% 17% 7% 12% 22% 25% 2% 12% 7% 11% 6% 2% 9% 3% 4% 17% (12%) 23% 6% 1% (2%) 9% 4% 6% 16% 24% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 YTD % Increases Houses Condos
- 11. 416 Market Breakdown 1 year ago: Condos 55% / Houses 44% 5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48% 10 years ago: Condos 46% / Houses 53% As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new condos are completed, transaction share should keep shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a starter home and not held onto as long on average as houses. While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume, in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume. Detached 73% Semi 20% Row 7% Share of House Transactions - last 12 months Apartment 90% Townhouse 10% Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months Houses 40% Condos 59% Share of Transactions - last 12 months
- 12. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make trust it with an accountant. Having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities, Scott combines his analytical skills and business savvy with his hometown knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. He works with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate: