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Arriva babbo natale insieme a minsky

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Gianfranco Gelli

It is more than a possibility that Europe, Italy and Germany are falling into a Moment. Debt is comuniq out of control

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Arriva babbo natale insieme a Minsky 1
SCHUMPETER Senza innovazione il capitale non ha valore Here it is important to understand Schumpeters theory of capital: if nothing new happens in the world (innovations) capital is theoretically without value. If we again look to the bookkeeping perspective which is absolutely necessary to understand financial crises all investments in a world without innovations could be covered by depreciation. The innovations give value to capital. Capital in itself is sterile (cf. King Midas/the buried talents) (Erik Reinert Cannon Found. Tallin) 2
3 Lo schema mostra come la innovazione porta ad una richiesta di credito che inizialmente fa crescere il reddito, ma che arriva ad un punto in cui il reddito non cresce pi湛 la solvibilit diminuisce il sistema va in crisi (fonte eu)
THE MINSKY MOMENT Il sistema realizza che la quantit di debito non potr essere ripagata e inizia a svalutare (higher default expectation higher svalutation) Il sistema, non ha pi湛 la terra sotto i piedi (come nel cartone animato) VISIONE NON CATRASTOFISTA DEL CAPITALISMO Minsky argued, on the contrary, that capitalism had an innate tendency to both cycles and crises. His argument focused not on capitalisms weaknesses, but its strengths: capitalism encourages risktaking and optimism, which in turn leads to innovation that transforms both production and society itself (Krugman - Princeton) 4
5 LA STABILITA SPINGE ALLA INSTABILITA E ALLA FRAGILITA LA CRISI SI CHIUDE CON LA LIQUIDITA DAGLI ELICOTTERI (TANTA LIQUIDITA NEL SISTEMA PERCHE NON FALLISCA - E LA DEFLAZIONE DELLA ECONOMIA REALE O CON LA DEFLAZIONE FINANZIARIA (FALLIMENTO DELLE BANCHE)
6 Secondo la analisi di Godwin il debito finanzia i nuovi investimenti e fino ad un certo punto continua ad aumentare e alimentare il nuovo debito. In un primo momento si registrano tensioni salariali o spinte inflazionistiche che erodono il profitto e costringono le imprese a vendere a minor prezzo. Il meccanismo peggior al crescere dei fallimenti il sistema torna ai livelli di occupazione precedente. La teoria economica successiva ha evidenziato come il cerchio non sar perfettamente sovrapposto in ragione del debito ma i due cerchi avranno una parte comune e due ali EFFETTO FARFALLA , da sui 竪 scaturita la polemica che le farfalle causano le tempeste According to the analysis of Godwin debt financing new investments and to a certain extent it continues to rise and feed the new debt. At first register wage or inflationary tensions that erode profits and force companies to sell at a lower price. The mechanism worsens with increasing failures the system returns to the previous employment levels. The next economic theory has shown that the circle will not be perfectly superimposed because of the debt but the two circles shall have a common part and two "BUTTERFLY EFFECT" wings, as on the controversy has emerged that the butterflies causing storms
7 The cycle then repeats, since the slump reverses the income distribution dynamics that the boom set in train. Falling aggregate demand leads to falling employment and declining wage and materials costs, but at the same time the lower cash flows after the crisis mean that actual debt servicing falls short of what was planned. The recovery from the crisis thus leaves a residue of unpaid debt. The profit share of output ultimately returns to a level that once again encourages investment, but with a higher level of debt relative to GDP than before. Profits, and capitalist expectations of future profit, have been restored, but with a lower share of income going to workers (and raw material suppliers), offset by a larger share going to bankers. The next boom therefore sets out with a higher debt level, and the next, and the next, until finally such a level of debt is taken on that declining wages and raw material costs during the slump cannot offset the impact of debt servicing on profits. Without bankruptcy, debt continues to compound forever. With bankruptcy, debt is reduced, but at the cost of a diminished money supply as well. Profits do not recover, investment terminates, and the economy falls into a Great Depression (Minsky, can it happen again ?)
8 ARRIVA NATALE ? ARRIVA MINSKY ?

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Arriva babbo natale insieme a minsky

  • 1. Arriva babbo natale insieme a Minsky 1
  • 2. SCHUMPETER Senza innovazione il capitale non ha valore Here it is important to understand Schumpeters theory of capital: if nothing new happens in the world (innovations) capital is theoretically without value. If we again look to the bookkeeping perspective which is absolutely necessary to understand financial crises all investments in a world without innovations could be covered by depreciation. The innovations give value to capital. Capital in itself is sterile (cf. King Midas/the buried talents) (Erik Reinert Cannon Found. Tallin) 2
  • 3. 3 Lo schema mostra come la innovazione porta ad una richiesta di credito che inizialmente fa crescere il reddito, ma che arriva ad un punto in cui il reddito non cresce pi湛 la solvibilit diminuisce il sistema va in crisi (fonte eu)
  • 4. THE MINSKY MOMENT Il sistema realizza che la quantit di debito non potr essere ripagata e inizia a svalutare (higher default expectation higher svalutation) Il sistema, non ha pi湛 la terra sotto i piedi (come nel cartone animato) VISIONE NON CATRASTOFISTA DEL CAPITALISMO Minsky argued, on the contrary, that capitalism had an innate tendency to both cycles and crises. His argument focused not on capitalisms weaknesses, but its strengths: capitalism encourages risktaking and optimism, which in turn leads to innovation that transforms both production and society itself (Krugman - Princeton) 4
  • 5. 5 LA STABILITA SPINGE ALLA INSTABILITA E ALLA FRAGILITA LA CRISI SI CHIUDE CON LA LIQUIDITA DAGLI ELICOTTERI (TANTA LIQUIDITA NEL SISTEMA PERCHE NON FALLISCA - E LA DEFLAZIONE DELLA ECONOMIA REALE O CON LA DEFLAZIONE FINANZIARIA (FALLIMENTO DELLE BANCHE)
  • 6. 6 Secondo la analisi di Godwin il debito finanzia i nuovi investimenti e fino ad un certo punto continua ad aumentare e alimentare il nuovo debito. In un primo momento si registrano tensioni salariali o spinte inflazionistiche che erodono il profitto e costringono le imprese a vendere a minor prezzo. Il meccanismo peggior al crescere dei fallimenti il sistema torna ai livelli di occupazione precedente. La teoria economica successiva ha evidenziato come il cerchio non sar perfettamente sovrapposto in ragione del debito ma i due cerchi avranno una parte comune e due ali EFFETTO FARFALLA , da sui 竪 scaturita la polemica che le farfalle causano le tempeste According to the analysis of Godwin debt financing new investments and to a certain extent it continues to rise and feed the new debt. At first register wage or inflationary tensions that erode profits and force companies to sell at a lower price. The mechanism worsens with increasing failures the system returns to the previous employment levels. The next economic theory has shown that the circle will not be perfectly superimposed because of the debt but the two circles shall have a common part and two "BUTTERFLY EFFECT" wings, as on the controversy has emerged that the butterflies causing storms
  • 7. 7 The cycle then repeats, since the slump reverses the income distribution dynamics that the boom set in train. Falling aggregate demand leads to falling employment and declining wage and materials costs, but at the same time the lower cash flows after the crisis mean that actual debt servicing falls short of what was planned. The recovery from the crisis thus leaves a residue of unpaid debt. The profit share of output ultimately returns to a level that once again encourages investment, but with a higher level of debt relative to GDP than before. Profits, and capitalist expectations of future profit, have been restored, but with a lower share of income going to workers (and raw material suppliers), offset by a larger share going to bankers. The next boom therefore sets out with a higher debt level, and the next, and the next, until finally such a level of debt is taken on that declining wages and raw material costs during the slump cannot offset the impact of debt servicing on profits. Without bankruptcy, debt continues to compound forever. With bankruptcy, debt is reduced, but at the cost of a diminished money supply as well. Profits do not recover, investment terminates, and the economy falls into a Great Depression (Minsky, can it happen again ?)
  • 8. 8 ARRIVA NATALE ? ARRIVA MINSKY ?