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August 2017 - Bouncing back from the bottom: Toronto real estate market charts

S
Scott Ingram, CPA, CA, MBA

Some of the indicators around 416 houses show the market seems to be improving. Condos continue to be just fine. For the in-depth highlights of these charts, read my blog post at www.century21.ca/scott.ingram/blog. In the meantime, view the statistical trends with your own eyes with these monthly charts.

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Toronto Real Estate Monthly Charts Creative Commons license Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA Realtor Chalmers House by Blok 70 August 2017
Toronto Real Estate Monthly Market Charts Introduction You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean?? Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number youre seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow will add context and perspective to Torontos monthly real estate statistics. My focus is the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREBs regionally-focused information. I also separate Torontos two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos, because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
$3K YoY -0.2% $81K MoM -6.9% Toronto Real Estate August 2017 Quick Facts Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Historic Housing Stats (monthly information back to January 1996), Scott Ingram - Cooling in Houses started mid-April and price drops continued - MoM price decline not unusual from July to Aug (16 of last 22 years), but -6.9% was worst in last 22 year - However, MOI improved since July and average Semi prices actually rose MoM Houses may have bottomed, condos okay $87 YoY +18.9% $69K MoM +1.0% - Condo market more buoyant than houses in most stats - Low inventory holding condo market up. Active listings still way down ( 41% from 5-year norms) - Sales were even with 5-year Aug norms, and prices were MoM and YoY, MOI improved, but DOM still increasing
Detached $1,191K / Semi $895K / Row $853K Aug vs. 16: $3K (-0.2%) Aug vs. 12: $410K (60%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 9.8% - Jul to Aug MoM prices have fallen 16 of 22 years but - 6.9% is worst of the group - Driven down by detached Semis actually up MoM 416 Average Sold Price (Dollar volume 歎 number of transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Condo Apt $540K / Condo Townhouse $597K Aug vs. '16: $87K (18.9%) Aug vs. '12: $192K (55%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 9.1% - First month up after 3 months of declines - MoM +1.0%: Apt +1.4%, Townhouse -2.1% 958 1,110 1,074 1,156 1,170 1,157 1,104 1,096 1,183 1,187 1,221 1,165 1,217 1,4391,432 1,456 1,373 1,268 1,175 1,094 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 421 444 428 452 456 459 438 459 462 474 484 476485 524 562 589 573 559 540 546 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Condos (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Residential Sales Volume (number of sold transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Aug vs. '16: 29.4% (vs. Prior 5 years: 25%) YTD vs. '16: 20.9% - First Aug sales > July since 2005 - Apr lowest since 2009, May sales lowest since 2000, Jun/Jul/Aug lowest since 1996 (start of monthly data). Aug lower than previous low Aug by 16%. Aug vs. '16: 26.3% (vs. Prior 5 years: 0% ) YTD vs. '16: 5.7% - Comparisons to 2016 are tough (was 18% vs. 2015). Last 3 months have been within normal sales ranges. - Unusual prices have held at above 20% YoY when volumes down 20-30% last 3 months. Its due to low inventory (next slide). 1,889 2,102 2,066 1,320 1,162 1,508 1,532 1,393 714 624 1057 1641 1685 1594 1193 791 820 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 House Sales (Det & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,000 1,609 2,066 2,297 2,468 2,472 2,134 2,217 2,039 2,143 1,937 1,350 1254 1816 2565 2402 2272 1916 1484 1635 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Condo Sales (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Active Listings (snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Aug vs. '16: 81.1% (vs. Prior 5 years: 6%) YTD vs. '16: 41% - Listings have been back to within seasonal ranges for last 5 months - Houses were 26% of all 416 active listings last August this year are 43% Aug vs. '16: 14.4% (vs. Prior 5 years: 41%) YTD vs. '16: 40% - Active listings are moving back towards last years levels, but are still very seasonably low about 1,900 listings less than prior 5 year average 1,168 1,300 1,392 1,452 1,633 1,456 1,283 1,119 1,629 1,612 1,307 599679 836 1228 2034 2941 2876 2574 2026 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Houses 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3,491 3,718 4,028 4,177 4,249 4,041 3,608 3,134 3,111 2,791 2,203 1,3971529 1443 1546 2148 2854 3074 3080 2682 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Condos 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Monthly Change in Active Listings (net change in snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Aug vs. July avg change 2012-16: -230 - Huge drop from July to August was out of character were sellers holding back until the fall market, or holding back as long as it takes until things improve? Aug vs. July avg change 2012-16: -475 - Didnt drop as much as average, but that is helpful as still shortage of Active Listings 80 157 392 806 907 -65 -302 -548 (1,500) (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MoM Net in Active Listings: Houses 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 132 -86 103 602 706 220 6 -398 (1,500) (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MoM Net in Active Listings: Condos 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Months Of Inventory (active listings at month end 歎 sales for month) Aug vs. '16: 1.5 months (157%) Aug vs. Prior 5 years: 0.7 months (40%) - First MOI monthly decrease since Feb to Mar. Was at first time MOI over 3.0 since Aug 2010 - Detached highest at 2.8 (3.5 in Mar), Semi at 1.8 (2.6), Row at 1.5 (2.6) Aug vs. '16: 0.2 months (16%) Aug vs. Prior 5 years: 1.3 months (45%) - First decrease since Feb to Mar - Average since Jan 1996 is 3.0 so still very low historically - 17 of last 18 months have been below 2.0 - 6 months in row < houses ties record from Jul-Dec 2008 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.3 2.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 House MOI (Det & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Condo MOI (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Average Days On Market (Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Aug vs. '16: 8.7 days (57%) Aug vs. Prior 5 years: 4.0 days (20%) - Rose for 4th month in a row - Highest Aug since 2010 (31) - Still below historical average (since Jan 1996) of 28.1 DOM (median is 26.7) Aug vs. '16: 1.2 days (5%) Aug vs. Prior 5 years: 8.0 days (26%) - Fourth month in a row has risen; makes sense given low sales figures - Still lower than last year and way below average of 38 since Jan 1996 24 15 13 11 12 10 13 15 12 12 14 18 17 12 9 8 10 14 21 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 House DOM (Det & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 39 31 24 23 22 22 23 24 23 21 21 23 22 17 12 10 12 15 20 23 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Condo DOM (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 Sold Over Asking (Sold properties at 101% of asking price and Sold at 120%, as percent of total monthly sales) century21.ca/scott.ingram 101% over asking Aug vs. '16: 35 pp (solid lines) 120% over asking Aug vs. '16: 11 pp (dashed lines) - First month SOA didnt decrease since March - SOA now happening a lot less than last year 101% over asking Aug vs. '16: 1 pp (solid lines) 120% over asking Aug vs. '16: 0 pp (dashed lines) - SOA levels have now fallen back to 2016 levels 40% 53% 58% 66% 68% 67% 57% 58% 63% 60% 53% 44% 59% 73% 81% 78% 59% 35% 22% 23% 6% 10% 12% 18% 21% 19% 15% 14% 16% 15% 15% 11% 18% 38% 45% 36% 17% 5% 4% 3%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Houses 2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA 10% 12% 16% 20% 24% 22% 20% 20% 24% 26% 27% 26% 41% 54% 71% 74% 58% 36% 24% 19% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 7% 20% 21% 9% 3% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Condos 2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA
416 Annual Price Increases (December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2017 compared to Dec 2016) century21.ca/scott.ingram 20 year House performance: 17 years 3 years (Avg $42K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.6%. 20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $20K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.1%. 19 46 (11) 27 36 2 49 10 12 130 (51) 57 40 22 33 117 54 105 210 (71) 2 19 12 20 12 3 19 7 11 42 (34) 60 20 4 (6) 29 17 22 65 70 (100) (50) 0 50 100 150 200 250 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 YTD $000s $ Increases Houses Condos 7% 17% (3%) 9% 11% 1% 13% 2% 3% 29% (9%) 11% 7% 3% 5% 17% 7% 12% 22% (6%) 2% 12% 7% 11% 6% 2% 9% 3% 4% 17% (12%) 23% 6% 1% (2%) 9% 4% 6% 16% 15% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 YTD % Increases Houses Condos
416 Market Breakdown 1 year ago: Condos 56% / Houses 43% 5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48% 10 years ago: Condos 46% / Houses 53% 20 years ago: Condos 34% / Houses 64% As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new condos are completed, transaction share should keep shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a starter home and not held onto as long on average as houses. While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume, in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume. Houses 39% Condos 61% Share of Transactions - last 12 months Detached 72% Semi 20% Row 7% Share of House Transactions - last 12 months Apartment 90% Townhouse 10% Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make trust it with an accountant. I take a Moneyball approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both quantitative and qualitative trends especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market. After having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities, I now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate:

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August 2017 - Bouncing back from the bottom: Toronto real estate market charts

  • 1. Toronto Real Estate Monthly Charts Creative Commons license Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA Realtor Chalmers House by Blok 70 August 2017
  • 2. Toronto Real Estate Monthly Market Charts Introduction You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean?? Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number youre seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow will add context and perspective to Torontos monthly real estate statistics. My focus is the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREBs regionally-focused information. I also separate Torontos two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos, because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
  • 3. $3K YoY -0.2% $81K MoM -6.9% Toronto Real Estate August 2017 Quick Facts Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Historic Housing Stats (monthly information back to January 1996), Scott Ingram - Cooling in Houses started mid-April and price drops continued - MoM price decline not unusual from July to Aug (16 of last 22 years), but -6.9% was worst in last 22 year - However, MOI improved since July and average Semi prices actually rose MoM Houses may have bottomed, condos okay $87 YoY +18.9% $69K MoM +1.0% - Condo market more buoyant than houses in most stats - Low inventory holding condo market up. Active listings still way down ( 41% from 5-year norms) - Sales were even with 5-year Aug norms, and prices were MoM and YoY, MOI improved, but DOM still increasing
  • 4. Detached $1,191K / Semi $895K / Row $853K Aug vs. 16: $3K (-0.2%) Aug vs. 12: $410K (60%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 9.8% - Jul to Aug MoM prices have fallen 16 of 22 years but - 6.9% is worst of the group - Driven down by detached Semis actually up MoM 416 Average Sold Price (Dollar volume 歎 number of transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Condo Apt $540K / Condo Townhouse $597K Aug vs. '16: $87K (18.9%) Aug vs. '12: $192K (55%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 9.1% - First month up after 3 months of declines - MoM +1.0%: Apt +1.4%, Townhouse -2.1% 958 1,110 1,074 1,156 1,170 1,157 1,104 1,096 1,183 1,187 1,221 1,165 1,217 1,4391,432 1,456 1,373 1,268 1,175 1,094 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 421 444 428 452 456 459 438 459 462 474 484 476485 524 562 589 573 559 540 546 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Condos (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 5. 416 Residential Sales Volume (number of sold transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Aug vs. '16: 29.4% (vs. Prior 5 years: 25%) YTD vs. '16: 20.9% - First Aug sales > July since 2005 - Apr lowest since 2009, May sales lowest since 2000, Jun/Jul/Aug lowest since 1996 (start of monthly data). Aug lower than previous low Aug by 16%. Aug vs. '16: 26.3% (vs. Prior 5 years: 0% ) YTD vs. '16: 5.7% - Comparisons to 2016 are tough (was 18% vs. 2015). Last 3 months have been within normal sales ranges. - Unusual prices have held at above 20% YoY when volumes down 20-30% last 3 months. Its due to low inventory (next slide). 1,889 2,102 2,066 1,320 1,162 1,508 1,532 1,393 714 624 1057 1641 1685 1594 1193 791 820 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 House Sales (Det & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1,000 1,609 2,066 2,297 2,468 2,472 2,134 2,217 2,039 2,143 1,937 1,350 1254 1816 2565 2402 2272 1916 1484 1635 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Condo Sales (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 6. 416 Active Listings (snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Aug vs. '16: 81.1% (vs. Prior 5 years: 6%) YTD vs. '16: 41% - Listings have been back to within seasonal ranges for last 5 months - Houses were 26% of all 416 active listings last August this year are 43% Aug vs. '16: 14.4% (vs. Prior 5 years: 41%) YTD vs. '16: 40% - Active listings are moving back towards last years levels, but are still very seasonably low about 1,900 listings less than prior 5 year average 1,168 1,300 1,392 1,452 1,633 1,456 1,283 1,119 1,629 1,612 1,307 599679 836 1228 2034 2941 2876 2574 2026 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Houses 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3,491 3,718 4,028 4,177 4,249 4,041 3,608 3,134 3,111 2,791 2,203 1,3971529 1443 1546 2148 2854 3074 3080 2682 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Condos 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 7. 416 Monthly Change in Active Listings (net change in snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Aug vs. July avg change 2012-16: -230 - Huge drop from July to August was out of character were sellers holding back until the fall market, or holding back as long as it takes until things improve? Aug vs. July avg change 2012-16: -475 - Didnt drop as much as average, but that is helpful as still shortage of Active Listings 80 157 392 806 907 -65 -302 -548 (1,500) (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MoM Net in Active Listings: Houses 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 132 -86 103 602 706 220 6 -398 (1,500) (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MoM Net in Active Listings: Condos 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 8. 416 Months Of Inventory (active listings at month end 歎 sales for month) Aug vs. '16: 1.5 months (157%) Aug vs. Prior 5 years: 0.7 months (40%) - First MOI monthly decrease since Feb to Mar. Was at first time MOI over 3.0 since Aug 2010 - Detached highest at 2.8 (3.5 in Mar), Semi at 1.8 (2.6), Row at 1.5 (2.6) Aug vs. '16: 0.2 months (16%) Aug vs. Prior 5 years: 1.3 months (45%) - First decrease since Feb to Mar - Average since Jan 1996 is 3.0 so still very low historically - 17 of last 18 months have been below 2.0 - 6 months in row < houses ties record from Jul-Dec 2008 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.3 2.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 House MOI (Det & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.6 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Condo MOI (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 9. 416 Average Days On Market (Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Aug vs. '16: 8.7 days (57%) Aug vs. Prior 5 years: 4.0 days (20%) - Rose for 4th month in a row - Highest Aug since 2010 (31) - Still below historical average (since Jan 1996) of 28.1 DOM (median is 26.7) Aug vs. '16: 1.2 days (5%) Aug vs. Prior 5 years: 8.0 days (26%) - Fourth month in a row has risen; makes sense given low sales figures - Still lower than last year and way below average of 38 since Jan 1996 24 15 13 11 12 10 13 15 12 12 14 18 17 12 9 8 10 14 21 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 House DOM (Det & Semi & Row) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 39 31 24 23 22 22 23 24 23 21 21 23 22 17 12 10 12 15 20 23 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Condo DOM (Apt & Town) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  • 10. 416 Sold Over Asking (Sold properties at 101% of asking price and Sold at 120%, as percent of total monthly sales) century21.ca/scott.ingram 101% over asking Aug vs. '16: 35 pp (solid lines) 120% over asking Aug vs. '16: 11 pp (dashed lines) - First month SOA didnt decrease since March - SOA now happening a lot less than last year 101% over asking Aug vs. '16: 1 pp (solid lines) 120% over asking Aug vs. '16: 0 pp (dashed lines) - SOA levels have now fallen back to 2016 levels 40% 53% 58% 66% 68% 67% 57% 58% 63% 60% 53% 44% 59% 73% 81% 78% 59% 35% 22% 23% 6% 10% 12% 18% 21% 19% 15% 14% 16% 15% 15% 11% 18% 38% 45% 36% 17% 5% 4% 3%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Houses 2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA 10% 12% 16% 20% 24% 22% 20% 20% 24% 26% 27% 26% 41% 54% 71% 74% 58% 36% 24% 19% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 7% 20% 21% 9% 3% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Condos 2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA
  • 11. 416 Annual Price Increases (December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2017 compared to Dec 2016) century21.ca/scott.ingram 20 year House performance: 17 years 3 years (Avg $42K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.6%. 20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $20K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.1%. 19 46 (11) 27 36 2 49 10 12 130 (51) 57 40 22 33 117 54 105 210 (71) 2 19 12 20 12 3 19 7 11 42 (34) 60 20 4 (6) 29 17 22 65 70 (100) (50) 0 50 100 150 200 250 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 YTD $000s $ Increases Houses Condos 7% 17% (3%) 9% 11% 1% 13% 2% 3% 29% (9%) 11% 7% 3% 5% 17% 7% 12% 22% (6%) 2% 12% 7% 11% 6% 2% 9% 3% 4% 17% (12%) 23% 6% 1% (2%) 9% 4% 6% 16% 15% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 YTD % Increases Houses Condos
  • 12. 416 Market Breakdown 1 year ago: Condos 56% / Houses 43% 5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48% 10 years ago: Condos 46% / Houses 53% 20 years ago: Condos 34% / Houses 64% As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new condos are completed, transaction share should keep shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a starter home and not held onto as long on average as houses. While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume, in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume. Houses 39% Condos 61% Share of Transactions - last 12 months Detached 72% Semi 20% Row 7% Share of House Transactions - last 12 months Apartment 90% Townhouse 10% Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
  • 13. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make trust it with an accountant. I take a Moneyball approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both quantitative and qualitative trends especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market. After having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities, I now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate: