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Automotive lightweight – Heavy impact

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Berylls Strategy Advisors
Berylls Strategy Advisors

Automotive lightweight design is driven by three key factors: increasing vehicle content and functions, stringent CO2 efficiency standards, and advancements in electrified powertrains. Lightweight design using multi-material solutions is necessary to reduce vehicle weight and counter these impacts. The global market for lightweight automotive body design is projected to grow fivefold to nearly €100 billion by 2025, led by Europe, China, and North America. Innovation in materials, manufacturing processes, and cross-industry collaboration will be critical for companies to succeed in future lightweight markets.

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Automotive lightweight –Heavy impact Economic Symposium, Alpbach August 31st, 2016
1120160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx LIGHTWEIGHT INNOVATION LIGHTWEIGHT CONCEPTS / DESIGN LIGHTWEIGHT MATERIAL / TECHNOLOGIES A „LIGHT CAR“ makes use of … A definition: Automotive lightweight –from lightweight material to lightweight design … Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors … and requires not only material and product application know-how, but processing and joining know-how as well. Aluminum Tailored Properties (Carbon) Fibre reinforced Plastics MAGNESIUM Ceramics TEXTILES BIO COMPOSITES HIGH- STRENGTH STEEL (HSS) … PARTS INTEGRATIONFunctional integration BIONIC DESIGN Hybrid solutions LOAD LEVEL CONCEPTS Topology optimization …
2220160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx 1.000 800 900 1970 1980 2000 20101990 600 1.400 1.300 1.100 1.200 700 Golf VI Golf IV Golf V Golf III Golf VII Golf I Golf II … with heavy impact –the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (1/3) Source: Volkswagen, Berylls Strategy Advisors VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS CO2 EFFICIENCY POWERTRAIN ELECTRIFI- CATION (xEV) EXAMPLE: VW GOLF –VEHICLE WEIGHT INCREASE ACROSS GENERATIONS +53% FOCUS ON WEIGHT REDUCTION > Increase of vehicle size > Passive safety (NCAP rating,…) > New comfort functions (HVAC, power seats,…) > Higher requirements on • Ride & handling (controls,…) • NVH (glass, insulations,…) kg, standard equipment, basic performance engine Lightweight design needed to reverse the weight spiral of additional vehicle content and functions!
3320160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx … with heavy impact –the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (2/3) Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS CO2 EFFICIENCY POWERTRAIN ELECTRIFI- CATION (xEV) EXAMPLE: CO2 TARGETS EUROPE AND LEVERAGE OF LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN 95 140 50 2025 75 20202015 Fleet target in g CO2/km Ultra lightweight design ICE optimi- zation Multi-material- design PHEV/ BEV 350 150 100 50 0 150100500 Attractiveness of alternative CO2-measures CO2 Reduction (g/km) Additionalcost(€/gCO2reduction) ICE optimi- zation Neuer Stahlleichtbau Ultra lightweight design Multi-material- design HEV BEV incl. Range Extender BEV Lightweight design as an important lever to apply to future CO2 emissions regulations (2020 and beyond)
4420160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx … with heavy impact –the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (3/3) Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors Lightweight design crucial for xEV performance, to limit weight increase with direct impact on vehicle reach and/or battery size and cost VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS CO2 EFFICIENCY POWERTRAIN ELECTRIFI- CATION (xEV) EXAMPLE: ADDITIONAL WEIGHT BY ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAIN Additional powertrain weight in kg – exemplary Vehicle weight examples in kg 300 250 100 75 20 Mild Hybrid Start/Stop PHEV Full Hybrid BEV 1.585 1.386 BEVICE 1.233 PHEV PHEV 2.215 ICE 1.960 +153 kg +275 kg+199 kg
5520160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Example –The future market for “lightweight body design“ will grow fivefold to almost €100bn (2025) 1 High-strength steel (HSS), Advanced high-strength steel (AHSS), Ultra high-strength steel (UHSS) 2 “Light vehicles” definition: including passenger cars, pick-ups and light trucks (up to 3.8 tons) Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors Lightweight Body Design– Market Growth... in bn €, light vehicles, global 121 74 21 99 2012 173 2025 142 Lightweight design (CAGR +12.7%) Conventional steel (CAGR -3.7%) > Global vehicle market1 to grow by almost 50% until 2025 • from 79 mn. units (2012) … • … to 118 mn. units (2025, expected) > Strong shift to lightweight design • Lightweight design market growth in all regions, including China • Diffusion into small vehicle segment–lightweight material to almost catch-up with conventional steel > Multi-material design on the rise • In 2025, almost 1/3 of all vehicles will apply multi-material solutions (steel- or aluminum-intensive) > Lightweight design still a steel market in the future ~75% of market will be high- to ultra-high-strength steel COMMENT
6620160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Example –Continued high growth potential for lightweight body design in Europe, and China will almost have caught up with Europe by 2025 Comment: Regions correspond to vehicle production location Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 20252012 41 2012 28 2012 2025 50 2025 34 30 31 Body market growth by region, in bn €, light vehicles EUROPE NAFTA CHINA > European OEMs/suppliers as innovation leader since years > European Premium segment as key driver > Tight European CO2 regulations > Big 3 (FCA, Ford, GM) need to catch up on vehicle weight > European transplants to introduce lightweight value creation > By far strongest production growth > Strong and fast catch up with state-of-the-art technology > Local investments by all international OEMs/suppliers Conventional steel Lightweight design
7720160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Know-how requirements for lightweight design innovations–3 dimensions Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors > New alloys, new composites > New material combinations > Material treatment > Etc. MATERIAL PROCESS FUNCTION COLLABORATION SUPPLIER OEM > Semi-finished products > Machining and joining technologies > Process design and management > Etc. > Requirements engineering > Technical concepts and solutions design > Application engineering > Simulation and testing > Etc. FOCUS
8820160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx How to exploit future lightweight markets–… and key success factors for all players Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors Mastering the diversity of light weight solutions– INNOVATION CAPABILITIES! Supply of global markets– GLOBAL FOOTPRINT & BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE! 1 2 3 Leverage across the value chain– INDUSTRIES NETWORK & PARTNERING!
9920160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx > Focus on steel in the past > Innovation invest to catch up Decade of diversity –both heterogeneity and individualization are still on the rise in lightweight body design solutions Source: Company information; Berylls Strategy Advisors 1 EXAMPLE: LIGHTWEIGHT BODY DESIGN–A DECADE OF DIVERSTITY > Innovations at the core > Premium as front runner > Very strong material competence > Volume applications in focus > Strong presence of steel sector > Limited application innovation know-how Load level concepts E.g. weight spread of alternative drive systems Smart lightweight steel construction E.g. VW Golf VIICFRP E.g. BMW i3 passenger cell Hybrid solutions E.g. Audi A6 front roof frame Integral construction E.g. suspension strut dome of the Porsche Panamera Tailored solutions E.g. tailored welded blanks Multi-material design E.g. Audi TT (2nd generation) LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN “AT ITS BEST“– competition for the “best“ lightweight design solutions of the future Topology optimization E.g. Mercedes Benz SL Mastering the diversity of light weight solutions– INNOVATION CAPABILITIES!1
101020160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Global footprint– Localization of the engineering and production value chain becomes a must as markets for lightweight design go global Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 2 EXAMPLE: Metal forming companies– selected players > Larger players > Internationalization, with focus on U.S. market, still > Mid-sized to very large players > Focused internationalization “with the customer” > Strong footprint home markets > Some internationalization with Japanese (Korean) OEMs > Business focus/footprint China > Some M&A internationally expected Supply of global markets– GLOBAL FOOTPRINT & BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE!2 Global Company Size (turnover) Local Engineering & Production Footprint
111120160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Collaboration–For lightweight design innovations, a comprehensive perspective across the whole value chain is needed, to bring in the right set of partners Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 3 EXAMPLE: LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN NETWORK GERMANY > Large steel/aluminum industries > Comparatively high OEM in-house parts production > Leading players across the value chain > Strong research communities > Highly integrated value chains > Tightened networks > Almost no R&D history > Technology networking not part of the DNA Leverage across the value chain –INDUSTRIES NETWORK & PARTNERING!3 Materials/ Alloys Semi- finished products Machinery equipment Tooling Forming & Joining Assembly > DLR > Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft > Laser Zentrum Hannover > Leibnitz-Institute > TU Bergakademie Freiberg > RWTH Aachen > TU Dresden > TU München > CFK-Valley Stade e.V. > Forschungscampus ARENA 2036 > Initiative Massiver Leichtbau > Cluster Neue Werkstoffe (Bayern Innovativ) > VDI, VDMA, VDA, VCI > Industrievereinigung Verstärkte Kunststoffe > WV Metalle, WV Stahl OEM + SUPPLIERS RESERACH INSTITUTES UNIVERSITIES CLUSTERS & NETWORKS ASSOCIATIONS
121220160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx INNOVATION CAPABILITIES GLOBAL FOOTPRINT& BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE INDUSTRY NETWORK & PARTNERING Overall, Europe seems well prepared to master the future for lightweight design in Automotive Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 1 FUTURE PERSPECTIVE 2 3 ! As China is on the rise – both from a market as well as from an industry player perspective – European players will have to deal with a tightening competition
131320160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx The future role of Europe–and the perspective for the Automotive lightweight industry Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors ESTABLISHED and WELL-KNOWN PLAYERS across the value chain Coverage of the WHOLE lightweight value chain … GLOBAL INNOVATION LEADERS with a TRADITION OF INNOVATION FOR DECADES … from material disciplines to MACHINERY & equipment to PRODUCT & PROCESS SOLUTIONS The MOST INNOVATIVE CAR SEGMENT (premium cars) right on the doorstep AN UNRIVALED NETWORK OF R&D INSTITUTES AND FACILITIES PUBLIC FUNDING AS ONE OF THE CORE INDUSTRIES THE FUTURE OF LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN: Strategic (and operational) collaboration across the value chain!
Berylls Strategy Advisors GmbH Maximilianstrasse 34 80539 München T +49-89-710 410 40-0 info@berylls.com

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Automotive lightweight – Heavy impact

  • 1. Automotive lightweight –Heavy impact Economic Symposium, Alpbach August 31st, 2016
  • 2. 1120160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx LIGHTWEIGHT INNOVATION LIGHTWEIGHT CONCEPTS / DESIGN LIGHTWEIGHT MATERIAL / TECHNOLOGIES A „LIGHT CAR“ makes use of … A definition: Automotive lightweight –from lightweight material to lightweight design … Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors … and requires not only material and product application know-how, but processing and joining know-how as well. Aluminum Tailored Properties (Carbon) Fibre reinforced Plastics MAGNESIUM Ceramics TEXTILES BIO COMPOSITES HIGH- STRENGTH STEEL (HSS) … PARTS INTEGRATIONFunctional integration BIONIC DESIGN Hybrid solutions LOAD LEVEL CONCEPTS Topology optimization …
  • 3. 2220160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx 1.000 800 900 1970 1980 2000 20101990 600 1.400 1.300 1.100 1.200 700 Golf VI Golf IV Golf V Golf III Golf VII Golf I Golf II … with heavy impact –the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (1/3) Source: Volkswagen, Berylls Strategy Advisors VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS CO2 EFFICIENCY POWERTRAIN ELECTRIFI- CATION (xEV) EXAMPLE: VW GOLF –VEHICLE WEIGHT INCREASE ACROSS GENERATIONS +53% FOCUS ON WEIGHT REDUCTION > Increase of vehicle size > Passive safety (NCAP rating,…) > New comfort functions (HVAC, power seats,…) > Higher requirements on • Ride & handling (controls,…) • NVH (glass, insulations,…) kg, standard equipment, basic performance engine Lightweight design needed to reverse the weight spiral of additional vehicle content and functions!
  • 4. 3320160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx … with heavy impact –the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (2/3) Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS CO2 EFFICIENCY POWERTRAIN ELECTRIFI- CATION (xEV) EXAMPLE: CO2 TARGETS EUROPE AND LEVERAGE OF LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN 95 140 50 2025 75 20202015 Fleet target in g CO2/km Ultra lightweight design ICE optimi- zation Multi-material- design PHEV/ BEV 350 150 100 50 0 150100500 Attractiveness of alternative CO2-measures CO2 Reduction (g/km) Additionalcost(€/gCO2reduction) ICE optimi- zation Neuer Stahlleichtbau Ultra lightweight design Multi-material- design HEV BEV incl. Range Extender BEV Lightweight design as an important lever to apply to future CO2 emissions regulations (2020 and beyond)
  • 5. 4420160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx … with heavy impact –the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (3/3) Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors Lightweight design crucial for xEV performance, to limit weight increase with direct impact on vehicle reach and/or battery size and cost VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS CO2 EFFICIENCY POWERTRAIN ELECTRIFI- CATION (xEV) EXAMPLE: ADDITIONAL WEIGHT BY ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAIN Additional powertrain weight in kg – exemplary Vehicle weight examples in kg 300 250 100 75 20 Mild Hybrid Start/Stop PHEV Full Hybrid BEV 1.585 1.386 BEVICE 1.233 PHEV PHEV 2.215 ICE 1.960 +153 kg +275 kg+199 kg
  • 6. 5520160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Example –The future market for “lightweight body design“ will grow fivefold to almost €100bn (2025) 1 High-strength steel (HSS), Advanced high-strength steel (AHSS), Ultra high-strength steel (UHSS) 2 “Light vehicles” definition: including passenger cars, pick-ups and light trucks (up to 3.8 tons) Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors Lightweight Body Design– Market Growth... in bn €, light vehicles, global 121 74 21 99 2012 173 2025 142 Lightweight design (CAGR +12.7%) Conventional steel (CAGR -3.7%) > Global vehicle market1 to grow by almost 50% until 2025 • from 79 mn. units (2012) … • … to 118 mn. units (2025, expected) > Strong shift to lightweight design • Lightweight design market growth in all regions, including China • Diffusion into small vehicle segment–lightweight material to almost catch-up with conventional steel > Multi-material design on the rise • In 2025, almost 1/3 of all vehicles will apply multi-material solutions (steel- or aluminum-intensive) > Lightweight design still a steel market in the future ~75% of market will be high- to ultra-high-strength steel COMMENT
  • 7. 6620160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Example –Continued high growth potential for lightweight body design in Europe, and China will almost have caught up with Europe by 2025 Comment: Regions correspond to vehicle production location Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 20252012 41 2012 28 2012 2025 50 2025 34 30 31 Body market growth by region, in bn €, light vehicles EUROPE NAFTA CHINA > European OEMs/suppliers as innovation leader since years > European Premium segment as key driver > Tight European CO2 regulations > Big 3 (FCA, Ford, GM) need to catch up on vehicle weight > European transplants to introduce lightweight value creation > By far strongest production growth > Strong and fast catch up with state-of-the-art technology > Local investments by all international OEMs/suppliers Conventional steel Lightweight design
  • 8. 7720160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Know-how requirements for lightweight design innovations–3 dimensions Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors > New alloys, new composites > New material combinations > Material treatment > Etc. MATERIAL PROCESS FUNCTION COLLABORATION SUPPLIER OEM > Semi-finished products > Machining and joining technologies > Process design and management > Etc. > Requirements engineering > Technical concepts and solutions design > Application engineering > Simulation and testing > Etc. FOCUS
  • 9. 8820160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx How to exploit future lightweight markets–… and key success factors for all players Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors Mastering the diversity of light weight solutions– INNOVATION CAPABILITIES! Supply of global markets– GLOBAL FOOTPRINT & BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE! 1 2 3 Leverage across the value chain– INDUSTRIES NETWORK & PARTNERING!
  • 10. 9920160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx > Focus on steel in the past > Innovation invest to catch up Decade of diversity –both heterogeneity and individualization are still on the rise in lightweight body design solutions Source: Company information; Berylls Strategy Advisors 1 EXAMPLE: LIGHTWEIGHT BODY DESIGN–A DECADE OF DIVERSTITY > Innovations at the core > Premium as front runner > Very strong material competence > Volume applications in focus > Strong presence of steel sector > Limited application innovation know-how Load level concepts E.g. weight spread of alternative drive systems Smart lightweight steel construction E.g. VW Golf VIICFRP E.g. BMW i3 passenger cell Hybrid solutions E.g. Audi A6 front roof frame Integral construction E.g. suspension strut dome of the Porsche Panamera Tailored solutions E.g. tailored welded blanks Multi-material design E.g. Audi TT (2nd generation) LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN “AT ITS BEST“– competition for the “best“ lightweight design solutions of the future Topology optimization E.g. Mercedes Benz SL Mastering the diversity of light weight solutions– INNOVATION CAPABILITIES!1
  • 11. 101020160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Global footprint– Localization of the engineering and production value chain becomes a must as markets for lightweight design go global Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 2 EXAMPLE: Metal forming companies– selected players > Larger players > Internationalization, with focus on U.S. market, still > Mid-sized to very large players > Focused internationalization “with the customer” > Strong footprint home markets > Some internationalization with Japanese (Korean) OEMs > Business focus/footprint China > Some M&A internationally expected Supply of global markets– GLOBAL FOOTPRINT & BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE!2 Global Company Size (turnover) Local Engineering & Production Footprint
  • 12. 111120160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx Collaboration–For lightweight design innovations, a comprehensive perspective across the whole value chain is needed, to bring in the right set of partners Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 3 EXAMPLE: LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN NETWORK GERMANY > Large steel/aluminum industries > Comparatively high OEM in-house parts production > Leading players across the value chain > Strong research communities > Highly integrated value chains > Tightened networks > Almost no R&D history > Technology networking not part of the DNA Leverage across the value chain –INDUSTRIES NETWORK & PARTNERING!3 Materials/ Alloys Semi- finished products Machinery equipment Tooling Forming & Joining Assembly > DLR > Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft > Laser Zentrum Hannover > Leibnitz-Institute > TU Bergakademie Freiberg > RWTH Aachen > TU Dresden > TU München > CFK-Valley Stade e.V. > Forschungscampus ARENA 2036 > Initiative Massiver Leichtbau > Cluster Neue Werkstoffe (Bayern Innovativ) > VDI, VDMA, VDA, VCI > Industrievereinigung Verstärkte Kunststoffe > WV Metalle, WV Stahl OEM + SUPPLIERS RESERACH INSTITUTES UNIVERSITIES CLUSTERS & NETWORKS ASSOCIATIONS
  • 13. 121220160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx INNOVATION CAPABILITIES GLOBAL FOOTPRINT& BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE INDUSTRY NETWORK & PARTNERING Overall, Europe seems well prepared to master the future for lightweight design in Automotive Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 1 FUTURE PERSPECTIVE 2 3 ! As China is on the rise – both from a market as well as from an industry player perspective – European players will have to deal with a tightening competition
  • 14. 131320160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx The future role of Europe–and the perspective for the Automotive lightweight industry Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors ESTABLISHED and WELL-KNOWN PLAYERS across the value chain Coverage of the WHOLE lightweight value chain … GLOBAL INNOVATION LEADERS with a TRADITION OF INNOVATION FOR DECADES … from material disciplines to MACHINERY & equipment to PRODUCT & PROCESS SOLUTIONS The MOST INNOVATIVE CAR SEGMENT (premium cars) right on the doorstep AN UNRIVALED NETWORK OF R&D INSTITUTES AND FACILITIES PUBLIC FUNDING AS ONE OF THE CORE INDUSTRIES THE FUTURE OF LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN: Strategic (and operational) collaboration across the value chain!
  • 15. Berylls Strategy Advisors GmbH Maximilianstrasse 34 80539 München T +49-89-710 410 40-0 info@berylls.com