Presentation Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
This document summarizes a presentation given at the Royal Netherlands Embassy in Washington DC on November 30, 2010 about transatlantic perspectives for global economic recovery and congruence in trade interests and export promotion policies. The presentation focused on three main points: that mercantilist approaches to trade promotion can be distracting, that trade promotion strategies can work to increase exports and imports, and that upholding the multilateral trading system through congruent strategies is especially important. Data was presented showing the impact of economic diplomacy on trade and exports. Completing the Doha round of trade negotiations was noted as something missing from fully realizing gains from trade. Shifting shares of world trade over time towards emerging economies like China was also discussed
Presentation Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
- 1. Transatlantic perspectives for global economic recovery In search of congruence in trade interests and export promotion policies Royal Netherlands Embassy, Washington DC, Nov. 30,2010 Session III Export Promotion 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Peter A.G. van Bergeijk International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University and Research School for Resource Studies for Development (CERES), Utrecht, the Netherlands Bergeijk@iss.nl
- 2. Three points to make • The Mercantilist flavor distracts • Trade promotion works • Congruence is especially strong in strategies to uphold the multilateral trading system
- 3. Imports are important • Trade diversion versus trade creation (Missing from Table 9). • Specialization and competition effect
- 4. Trade promotion works Dataset by economic Impact of economic component diplomacy N=870 Trade Export Import Significant & Significant & negative -2<t<2 positive 11% 7% Exports only 34 331 343 5% 47% 48% 82% Imports or trade 39 123 0% 24% 76% 12/3/2010 Bergeijk 4
- 5. Something is missing Not completing the Doha round
- 6. Multilateral trade negotiations (duration and number of countries) 120 Ddoha, predicted 100 Uruguay 80 Doha, present months) Duration (months Tokyo 60 40 Kennedy 20 Dillon Geneva Annecy Torquay Geneva II 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 Number of Source: Van Marrewijk 2006 countries
- 7. Shifting shares in world trade 1995 Forecast 2025 Per cent Per cent Europe 40 Europe 23 US 16 China 17 Japan 7 US 11 China 2 Japan 4 Rest of Asia 14 Rest of Asia 15 Rest of world 21 Rest of world 30 Herfindahl = 1909 63 Herfindahl = 955 38 C3 = 63 C3 = 51 12/3/2010 Bergeijk 7
- 8. Transatlantic perspectives for global economic recovery In search of congruence in trade interests and export promotion policies Royal Netherlands Embassy, Washington DC, Nov. 30,2010 Session III Export Promotion 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Peter A.G. van Bergeijk International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University and Research School for Resource Studies for Development (CERES), Utrecht, the Netherlands Bergeijk@iss.nl