Big Issues In Australia's Property And Construction Future

Oct 17, 2010Download as PPT, PDF2 likes627 views

Davis Langdon\'s - An AECOM Company - Australia and New Zealand Research Manager delivered the following presentation for the Property Council of Australia on the 15th October 2010, tackling the 'Big Issues in Australia's Property and Construction Future'

GLOBAL PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION CONSULTANTS

BIG ISSUES AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY AND CONSTRUCTION FUTURE Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager

Facts, Fiction and the Future Population Growth Infrastructure Investment Forecast Labour Force Demand Projected Cost Escalation ‘ Competitive’ Immigration...

The Population Debate How much is enough?

The Most Dangerous Idea! – A Static Population Million Today 2050 Projection +146% -40% +5% Minor Allowance of Growth from 22.5 million to 25 million

Population Projections High Projection Scenario 38% Increase South Australia Currently 1.6 million 2.2 million National 39.4m 33.9m 30.2m High Projection Scenario 75% Increase

The Irreversible Truth – Ageing Population % of GDP devoted to Age-Related Spending by 2050 Proportion of Population Aged 65+

Infrastructure Labour Force Growth - Historical Index = 100 in 1987 Infrastructure Labour Force Total Labour Force

Infrastructure Investment (per capita) - Historical

2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure Labour Force Current infrastructure labour force: 738,000 �� Population Projections �� Low Medium High Infrastructure Investment Projection Scenarios Low Projection 907,000 1,021,000 1,191,000 Medium Projection 1,568,000 1,765,000 2,058,000 High Projection 2,229,000 2,508,000 2,925,000

Ratio of Infrastructure Labour Force to Total Population High Projection Low Projection

2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure Labour Force Infrastructure labour force contribution will grow to 7.5% of the total population from a long term average of 3%

Construction Productivity Job Required per $1million NSW VIC QLD SA WA Australia Residential & Non-Residential Work Done 16.7 10.6 13.9 14.2 11.6 13.1 Total Work Done (Including Engineering) 8.3 7.3 6.3 6.8 3.5 6.3 Proportion of Engineering Work Done 50% 31% 55% 52% 70% 52%

Unemployment Rate Considerably less spare labour capacity this time around

Why did the Labour Force Remain Tight? Employers chose to reduce hours rather than reduce staff Hours Worked (billion hours/Month) Total Jobs (millions)

Comparative International Construction Costs Office High-Rise Apartments Hotels

Circular Migration – Competition for Skills

Historical Net Migration This would achieve 42 million by 2050

Australia – Still one of the most ‘ liveable ’ countries? In recent years Australia’s ranking as one of the world’s most liveable countries & its business investment ranking have fallen

A Prosperous and High Liveability ‘Big’ Australia Percentage of People in Prison that have... 36% Never Been Employed in Any Capacity Completed Secondary School or Trade 7%

Connectivity Productivity Improvements High Speed Rail High Speed Internet Remote Training and Education Remote Health Care Treatment Remote Workplaces Australia is reaching the trigger points … Metro Rail Systems Renewable Energy Leaders (not Laggards) New Economically Viable Cities

HOW DO WE GET THERE? Migration policy to manage projected demand – not reactionary Connectivity in technology in high speed rail World class education Renewable energy technology A sustainable housing strategy And lastly… more people…

Thank you Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager [email_address] Delivering solutions that enhance and sustain the world’s built, natural and social environments

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Big Issues In Australia's Property And Construction Future

1. GLOBAL PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION CONSULTANTS

2. BIG ISSUES AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY AND CONSTRUCTION FUTURE Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager

3. Facts, Fiction and the Future Population Growth Infrastructure Investment Forecast Labour Force Demand Projected Cost Escalation ‘ Competitive’ Immigration...

4. WHERE WE WERE...

5. WHERE WE ARE...

6. WHERE WE NEED TO BE...

7. HOW DO WE GET THERE?

8. The Population Debate How much is enough?

9. Australia - Today million 22.5

10. Australia @ 2050 million 30 ?

11. Australia @ 2050 million 35 ?

12. Australia @ 2050 million 40 ?

13. Australia @ 2050 More??

14. DECIPHERING THE POPULATION DEBATE

15. The Most Dangerous Idea! – A Static Population Million Today 2050 Projection +146% -40% +5% Minor Allowance of Growth from 22.5 million to 25 million

16. Population Projections High Projection Scenario 38% Increase South Australia Currently 1.6 million 2.2 million National 39.4m 33.9m 30.2m High Projection Scenario 75% Increase

17. The Irreversible Truth – Ageing Population % of GDP devoted to Age-Related Spending by 2050 Proportion of Population Aged 65+

18. New research was �Ա��…

19. INFRASTRUCTURE AND LABOUR FORCE

20. Infrastructure Labour Force Growth - Historical Index = 100 in 1987 Infrastructure Labour Force Total Labour Force

21. Infrastructure Investment (per capita) - Historical

22. 2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure Labour Force Current infrastructure labour force: 738,000 �� Population Projections �� Low Medium High Infrastructure Investment Projection Scenarios Low Projection 907,000 1,021,000 1,191,000 Medium Projection 1,568,000 1,765,000 2,058,000 High Projection 2,229,000 2,508,000 2,925,000

23. Ratio of Infrastructure Labour Force to Total Population High Projection Low Projection

24. 2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure Labour Force Infrastructure labour force contribution will grow to 7.5% of the total population from a long term average of 3%

25. Construction Productivity Job Required per $1million NSW VIC QLD SA WA Australia Residential & Non-Residential Work Done 16.7 10.6 13.9 14.2 11.6 13.1 Total Work Done (Including Engineering) 8.3 7.3 6.3 6.8 3.5 6.3 Proportion of Engineering Work Done 50% 31% 55% 52% 70% 52%

26. COST ESCALATION

27. Unemployment Rate Considerably less spare labour capacity this time around

28. Why did the Labour Force Remain Tight? Employers chose to reduce hours rather than reduce staff Hours Worked (billion hours/Month) Total Jobs (millions)

29. Comparative International Construction Costs Office High-Rise Apartments Hotels

30. National Housing Deficit Worsening

31. ‘ COMPETITIVE’ MIGRATION

32. Circular Migration – Competition for Skills

33. Circular Migration – Competition for Skills

34. Historical Net Migration This would achieve 42 million by 2050

35. Australia – Still one of the most ‘ liveable ’ countries? In recent years Australia’s ranking as one of the world’s most liveable countries & its business investment ranking have fallen

36. A Prosperous and High Liveability ‘Big’ Australia Percentage of People in Prison that have... 36% Never Been Employed in Any Capacity Completed Secondary School or Trade 7%

37. Connectivity Productivity Improvements High Speed Rail High Speed Internet Remote Training and Education Remote Health Care Treatment Remote Workplaces Australia is reaching the trigger points … Metro Rail Systems Renewable Energy Leaders (not Laggards) New Economically Viable Cities

38. HOW DO WE GET THERE? Migration policy to manage projected demand – not reactionary Connectivity in technology in high speed rail World class education Renewable energy technology A sustainable housing strategy And lastly… more people…

39. Thank you Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager [email_address] Delivering solutions that enhance and sustain the world’s built, natural and social environments

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