Big Trends of 2011 Part I
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The document discusses major trends in the United States in 2011 related to demographics, economics, values, and lifestyles. Key points include: the classic nuclear family now only accounts for 22% of households; minorities accounted for 92% of population growth from 2000-2010; marriage rates are declining with the median age of first marriage rising; and belief in the American Dream is declining though many still feel it is attainable with hard work. Technology remains a source of optimism and community is increasingly found online. Values are shifting towards self-reliance, thrift and human connections.
Big Trends of 2011 Part I
- 1. Big Trends of 2011 Forget everything you think you know Plus, trends in Work Lifestyle Play Consume 1
- 2. Today I. Big shifts of 2011 i. Demographics ii. Economic perceptions iii. Outlook iv. Values (break) II. Interesting stuff I. Work II. Life III. Play IV. Consume III. Teen trends 2
- 3. America is evolving 3
- 4. The classic nuclear family (married couple with children) nowaccounts for only 22% of households White children will in the minority by the year 2019 For the first time, rural Americans are just as likely to be divorced as city dwellers College-educated Americans are now more likely to get married and stay married than Americans with only a high school diploma Source: Mintel Inspire 2011 4
- 5. Marriage on the wane Trend 1: Delayed marriage - Co-habitation has become the norm at more than 50% - Median age at first marriage for men rose by six years since prime Baby Boomer years Trend 2: Never marry - Especially among more downscale and less educated - Over 他 of Americans over 18 were married in 1960, but only 52% today Key Drivers Extended period of adolescence Economic barriers Glamorized single lifestyle Source: Nielsen 5
- 6. The minority report From 2000 to 2010 minorities were responsible for 92% of the US population growth 1/3 of US is non-white 60% of growth of immigrant population was in areas where immigrants made up less than 5% of the population in 2000 Source: Mintel 2011 6
- 7. Whats all the chatter about Hispanics? U.S. Hispanic buying By 2015, 1 in 5 Americans will power is over $1 trillion be Hispanic 1 in 3 of new suburbanites is Hispanic Source: Mintel 2011 7
- 8. Economy and the psyche 8
- 9. Things are looking grim Although the last U.S. recession officially ended in 2009, 80% of Americans believe the economy is currently in a recession 42% say the U.S. economy is worse than it was last year 61% expecting economic conditions to be similar to now, or worse Source: Gallup Poll | September 2011 9
- 10. Belief in the American dream on the decline How Alive Is the American Dream? Not really alive Somewhat alive Very much alive 55 55 50 45 39 40 32 34 22 24 20 18 17 11 13 1986 1993 2000 2007 2010 Source: Roper Reports US November 2010 TeleCell 10
- 11. Perception = Reality Compared to a Generation Ago, Dream Is Harder to attain About the same Easier to attain 64 65 53 45 47 32 27 23 22 22 21 19 20 13 12 1986 1993 2000 2004 2010 Source: Roper Reports US Fall Core 2010, Q68 (online); RRUS 04-1, 01-1, and 94-1 in- person surveys; 1986 Roper custom study for The Wall Street Journal 11
- 12. 72% say Rich = $250K+ Perception = Reality All things considered, in which of these classes would you place yourself? Lower Lower Middle Middle Upper Middle Upper 60 57 Down 16 pts 51 since 1977 44 Up 13 pts since 31 1977 21 23 18 5 16 4 12 2 2 9 14 1 13 10 1 1977 1987 1992 2010 Source: Roper Reports US 12
- 13. Growing gap between wants vs. status symbols 1994: 28 points 2010: 33 points Biggest gaps today: Belonging to private club or country club 63% status symbol vs. 11% want = 52pt. gap, +6 from 1994 Living in an exclusive neighborhood 66% status symbol vs. 18% want = 48pt. gap, +13 from 1994 Fastest growing gap since 1994: Owning an expensive car From a 21-pt. gap between status symbol and aspiration to a 39pt. gap 13 Source: Roper Reports US Fall Core 2010 息 Copyright GfK Custom Research North America 2011. Proprietary and Confidential
- 14. Turning lemons into lemonade 14
- 15. Despite economic woes, Americans still happy Eight in 10 Americans say they are generally happy with their life 100 80 60 Somewhat Happy 40 20 Very Happy 0 Two-thirds of US. adults believe that happiness is due to relationships with friends and family Source: The Harris Poll Annual Happiness Index 2011 15
- 16. Americans are still hopeful about the future Although only 16% of Americans consider themselves well off, 50% think they will be in five to ten years More than 60% think their financial situation will get better next year Source: Reuters; Hart Research Associates 16
- 17. Technology remains a pillar of optimism 54% of Americans feel the Internet and technology have significantly expanded the meaning of community, +8 points from 2007 61% believe the effect of technology on society provides optimism Heavy tech users achieve better work-life balance (netbook/tablet owners +9 pts) 17 Source: Roper Reports US November 2010 TeleCell
- 18. Technology Forwards*are more optimistic about everything Higher household income Future of country (52% vs. 42%) Future of economy (48% vs. 39%) Country on right track (42% vs. 35%) Good time to buy (27% vs. 24%) * Technology Forwards are those optimistic about the effect of technology on society 18 18 Source: Roper Reports US Spring Core 2010
- 19. Living in a gadget nation Top things that Americans 1998 2010 would like to do or have Cell phone has replaced Travel abroad frequently for pleasure #6 #1 driving where I want/when I want as the last thing Have a beautifully decorated home 3 2 Americans will let go Own a vacation home 1 3 Have latest tech products 12 4 Fly first class 8 5 Stay in luxury hotels 2 6 Own your own business 7 7 Own an expensive car 4 8 Eat at expensive restaurants 5 9 Send your children to private schools 14 10 Live in an exclusive neighborhood 13 11 Own expensive jewelry 9 12 Source: Roper Reports US 2010-Fall (online) 19
- 20. Shifts in Values 20
- 21. A Recessionary Mindset Largest individual values changes 2008-2011 (by rankings) Faith -3 Tradition -3 Knowledge -3 Learning -3 Helpfulness -4 Self-reliance +10 Enjoying life -4 Having fun -7 Thrift +6 Working hard +3 Source: Roper Reports US Spring Core 2011 and prior waves 21 (online)
- 22. In recession, Americans place high value in being Self-directed Americans Values Types 22% Americans (vs. 13% global average) % classified in ValueScope segment can be classified as Self- Global USA Directeds, independent-minded 22 consumers who go their own way and Self-Directeds 13 prioritize the Values of Freedom, Self- 17 Reliance, and Authenticity, according to Hedonists 14 Roper. 14 Achievers 25 75% of Self-Directeds say control over 13 my life is part of their vision of the Nurturers 11 Good Life, +12 from total online 12 Survivors 12 Social- 11 Rationals 10 11 Traditionalists 15 Source: Roper US Spring Core 2011 22
- 23. Long Term Shifts Emerging from DIY to DIO Fully half of Influential Americans now feel connected to an online community, more than double the response of just two years ago, In Just Two Years, Influentials Connection to Online Community Doubles % of Influential Americans who feel a strong connection or some connection to group* 2007 2009 96 97 93 91 87 84 79 77 75 74 66 67 51 24 Extended Neighborhood Religion or Group sharing Workplace Local Online family or town spiritual group hobby or community community interest groups Source: Roper Reports US Fall Core 2010 23
- 24. Sense of community rooted in online connections 54% of Influential Americans速 feel the Internet and technology have significantly expanded the meaning of community, +8 points from 2007 37% of Influential Americans think that people are more connected with other people than they were 10 years ago, +5 points from 2007 Source: Roper Reports US TeleCell 2009 24
- 25. Values shift towards human connections Personal Values Change -Rank Order 2011 Rank change from 2001 Protecting the family 1 0 Stable personal relationships 2 +3 Freedom 3 -1 Authenticity 4 0 Self-reliance 5 +1 Friendship 6 -3 Enjoying life 7 +3 Learning 8 -1 Social tolerance 9 +5 Helpfulness 10 +4 Source: Roper Reports US Spring Core 2011 (online) 25 25
- 26. Values that transcend earnings Top personal values of high income ($100K+) and low income (<$30K) consumers that are valued equally between groups Coke: Open Happiness iPad: Well Always Evian: Live Young 26 Source: Roper Reports US Spring Core 2011 (online)
- 27. "While Americans recognize that it is going to be harder and they see challenges facing their kids, there is still a feeling of optimism that it really does matter if you work hard and if you have ambition Pew Economic Mobility Project 27
Editor's Notes
- #2: Over these past few years, there have been some really big changes happening and are still happening changes that are ultimately challenging assumptions that a lot of brands and marketers are used to making about consumers how this will all pan out in the end? We dont know yet the point of today is to get everyone up to speed about the changes that are occurring right now and how brands are innovating around these changes.Today will be separated into three main parts:First we will play a little catch up and go over some of the really large cultural and economic shifts that are taking placeThen for the second half well look at how these big changes are reflected in 5 categories: work, lifestyle, play, create, consumeLastly, we will go over a few interesting trends happening in the youth space.
- #3: ----- Meeting Notes (10/4/11 15:03) -----get rid of create
- #4: Times are changing. The shorthand for marketers is no longer applicable.
- #5: For example: Class nuclear family is less than 村 of american householdsWhite children will become minorities by 2019It used to be assumed that middle americans, the down home consumers were immuned to divorce and that they were the quintessential classic americans not the case anymore. Now rural americans are just as likely to be divorced. In fact, college educated americans are not more likely to get and stayed married than less educated americans
- #6: And to look at marriage a little deeper marriage has become less prevalent (from 72% to a little over half in 2008) there are a couple main trends that we are seeing:Delay of marriage:Co-habitationPeople are just taking longer to get marriedNever marry:-especially among less educated Why?Some drivers of these trends are extended period of adolescence: have you guys read or heard about NYTs article Why are People in their 20s taking so long to grow up? Economic barriersGlamorized single lifestyle: Entourage, Jersey Shore
- #7: When we think about talking to minorities, the assumption is to go coastal however the largest growth of immigrant populations are happening in places where there were no immigrants before, in suburbs, rural areas we need to be mindful of that when and if we start to think about reaching out to Hispanics or Asians or any other minority group.
- #8: Levels of acculturation and assimilation have huge impact on what will resonate with Hispanics. That is a whole other topic in itself. But the main point is that they are not a homogenous group
- #11: VO: The Dream is on the decline before we go on What is the American dream? The American Dream is a national ethos of the United States in which freedom includes a promise of the possibility of prosperity a.nd success. In the definition of the American Dream by James Truslow Adams in 1931, "life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement" regardless of social class or circumstances of birth.[And then over time, the American dream morphed into the ideal middle class: white picket fence and financial security.Then it became about possessions raising the standard for what is the American Dream, thus making it harder to attain.
- #12: We see this being played out here 65% think the dream is harder to attain probably because as we place more and more value on materialistic possessions, the standards got higher and higher and harder to meet.
- #15: You would think with all these bad things, the sky was falling and everyone is living in misery however the truth is that by the nature of Americans, there is a general sense of resilience and hope and 2) theres a bright spot in all of this. Technology has been a place of innovation and remains a huge pillar of optimism for Americansin fact the connectivity and access we now have due to technology has some implications on American values.
- #16: http://www.thecitywire.com/?q=node/16396You would think with all these bad things, the sky was falling and everyone is living in misery however the truth is that by the nature of Americans, there is a general sense of resilience and hope and 2) theres a bright spot in all of this. Technology has been a place of innovation and remains a huge pillar of optimism for Americansin fact the connectivity and access we now have due to technology has some implications on American values.
- #17: So it seems that although Americans are pessimistic about the future of the nation, individually, they still believe that true classic American values like hard work will get them through.
- #18: And technology really has been a bright spot through out a lot of gloom. It remains the source of hope for a lot of people and is the one area where innovation is still constantly taking place.
- #20: Corning video break the viral ceiling despite breaking all viral marketing rules; Kinect the best selling faster than iPad and iPodTheres two things interesting: enrichment and access not excessAsk any teen 10 years ago, prized possession was a car. Now it is their phone.
- #21: Again, looking into what the American Dream was and is for Americans right now its looking like for a time, what we valued was very materialistic and closer to status symbols now with the recession, its reverting back to the roots of our countries ideology.. More about self-empowerment, family, security
- #24: With self-reliance, its less insulated and isolated not like the Gen X mentality but more of a communal effort to be self-reliant from do it yourself to do it ourselvesSelf-reliance means something different than just relying on self technology and access to information becomes a trusted resource and guide its not about being completely on your own, but about not relying previous sources of authority and utilizing the community especially the online community and working together.
- #26: we talked about shifts towards DIO... to kind of wrap it all up ... this slide shows the rank change of values that are important to americans... More focus on connections and human relationships:Stable personal relationships was ranked 5, now its top twoSelf reliance is now top 5Enjoy life was top 10 now it is top 7
- #27: Ipad: Well never stop doing the things we love all about the simple pleasures, like playing with your kid talking to friends watching baseball
- #28: http://stlbeacon.org/issues-politics/class/money/110475-americans-remain-optimistic Ten minute break