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Bihar rjd

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Satyanarayana Swamy
Satyanarayana Swamy

Analysis prepared by us as part of Political communication about Bihar elections,is almost correct.Please find the analysis given by us

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Political Communication Assignment BY SatyaNarayana Swamy Gurram
BiharElections-2015  The upcoming Assembly Bihar elections is going to be crucial to the present BJP to continue their swing after their successful win in Loksabha elections.  At the same time, the equations in the NDA got changed after NitishKumar,present ChiefMinister unjoinned the NDA alliance ,because of which there is a split in the Upper Caste community votes who mainly vote for the development rather than the appeasements. So the upper caste votes will be shared among these parties. In 2010 elections the BJP and JD(U) alliance has acquired 39% of the total vote share and has won 206 seats out of 243 and RJD has acquired has 18.84% of vote share and won 22 seats.  But after Nitish Kumar , has to join the hands with other opposition parties i.e LaluPrasad’s party(RJD) and Congress to get back his chief minister seat, when there was a non- confidence motion presented against his party recently.  As there is a tough competition between the vote shares because of various factors like the Caste Card , Development there is a tough competition between the New-Secular Alliance consists of RJD(LaluParty),JD(U) ,Congress and NationalDemocracticAlliance consists of BJP, LokJanataShaktiParti(Paswan).  The Strength of RJD is the vote share of Yadav’s and Muslim’s vote share and JD(U) strength is Nitish Kumar and his development during the last 2 tenure’s as a ChiefMinister.
14.4 14.7 10 7.1 6.4 5.7 5 4.7 1.5 5.2 4.2 Voter's Share in %(ByCaste) Yadava's-RJD Muslims-RJD Mahadalits-Both BJP and Nitish Voters Banyas-BJP Voters Koeri-Nitish Voters Brahmin-BJP voters
Bihar 2015 and impending Lalu-Nitish Marriage
Strengths of RJD and JD(U) alliance  Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar have formed an alliance of convenience in Bihar. Afraid of losing the State to the BJP, they have ganged up together with the Congress which has been decimated nationally. What promoted this alliance is poor performance of all the these parties in the Lok Sabha elections held in 2014. The logic of all these parties contest together there would be no division of anti-BJP votes.  In the 2014 Lok Sabha Results , if these three parties(JDU,Congress,RJD) along with Pawar’s NCP had contested together in the Lok Sabha polls, NDA would have won only 10 seats instead of 31. It can be argued that elections is not only about arithmetic but also chemistry and the BJP would have still done extremely well.
 Rashtriya Janata Dal-Lok Janshakti Party: 25 seats for 25.59 per cent; Congress: four seats for 8.38 per cent; Communist Party of India: one seat for 1.69 per cent and Communist Party of India (Marxist): no seats for 0.71 per cent. The JD(U) polled 22.61 per cent to the BJP's 16.46 per cent.  These figures ought to comfort Lalu Prasad and warn his opponents against prematurely writing him off. In the October 2005 election, which the RJD fought jointly with the Congress, the two parties together won 63 seats for a combined vote share of 29.54 per cent. The RJD's share of votes in this was 23.45 per cent, which establishes a vote erosion in the current election of around 4.5 percentage points. In the same election, the JD(U) and the BJP polled 20.46 per cent and 15.65 per cent respectively.  The combined vote share of the RJD, the LJP and the Congress is 34 per cent. Add the Left parties, and the vote share increases marginally to 36.40 per cent — still some distance behind the 39 per cent jointly polled by the JD(U) and the BJP. The JD(U) and the BJP outperformed their principal opponents, the RJD and the LJP in every region of the State. The former had a lead of over 10 percentage points in all but one region, Mithila, where the RJD-LJP polled 27.5 per cent to the JD(U)-BJP's 36 per cent. The region-wise comparative shares of the rivals: Ang: JD(U)-BJP 37.7 per cent and RJD-LJP 26.50 per cent; Koshi: JD(U)-BJP 39.8 per and RJD-LJP 22 per cent; Mithila: JD(U)-BJP 36 per cent and RJD-LJP 27.5 per cent; Tirhut: JD(U)-BJP 38.5 per cent and RJD-LJP 24 per cent; Bhojpur: JD(U)-BJP 37.5 per cent and RJD-LJP 25.9 per cent; Magadh: JD(U)-BJP 43.9 per cent and RJD-LJP 28.1 per cent.
 Rebonding of old rivals Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar today checkmated BJP’s march in Bihar with secular alliance winning 6 of the 10 Assembly seats where bye-elections were held on August 21.  RJD of Lalu Prasad was victorious in Rajnagar (SC), Chapra and Mohiuddinagar. Ruling JD(U) won in Jale and Parbatta, while Congress wrested Bhagalpur from BJP.  On the other hand, RJD-led 'secular alliance' looks confident of getting the backing of 14.6 percent votes of Yadavs, 16 percent votes of Muslims and 5.7 percent votes of Rajput caste, thus making it a formidable 36.3 percent vote share. The Rajput caste voters have showed their loyalty to the RJD in the recent prestigious by-election to the Maharajganj LS seat where RJD candidate Prabhunath Singh defeated the JD-U candidate and education minister PK Shahi in the stronghold of Bhumihar voters. Of the total four MPs the RJD has, three — Prabhunath Singh, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh and Jagadanand Singh — come from the very caste, indicating the Bhumihar caste's loyalty to Lalu’s party.  The bigger source of hope for Nitish is the 21.3 percent extremely backward castes. The reason behind his claim on EBC votes is his government's move to constitute the Mahadalit Commission which allows them to avail several development schemes.
Some other challenges for BJP led NDA in Bihar and advantages for RJD and JD(U)  As the Narendra Modi led BJP government came into ruling by keeping a lot of speculation in public and was manage to win 2014 Loksabha elections with the public hating congress rule, and there is a split in the votes .Now it’s a time for them to really prove what they can specially do Bihar  Narendra Modi government has recently announced a 1 lakh core special package to Bihar with the assembly elections round the corner, this has to be really fullfilled otherwise they would be easily targeted by the opposition parties like the RJD ,JDU and Congress.  A special status category to Bihar is a long term promise , which BJP has to provide to Bihar. But they cannot just tell it by words as they are feeling the pressure from AndhraPradesh people, which they promised but failed to deliver.  As it is exactly 1 year the Narendra Modi led BJP govt came into power, people will really watch their real work on the ground rather than the manifesto and BJP cannot take it easy keeping in view of Delhi Election results.  Now the main hope of BJP after JDU unjoinned NDA is LSP led by Paswan and their Maha Dalit Votes. But there can be clash between both the parties for ChiefMinister post and seats share among them. By keeping all these points in view RJD and JDU alliance is going to be a touh competation for BJP and its alliances to win Bihar elections

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Bihar rjd

  • 2. BiharElections-2015  The upcoming Assembly Bihar elections is going to be crucial to the present BJP to continue their swing after their successful win in Loksabha elections.  At the same time, the equations in the NDA got changed after NitishKumar,present ChiefMinister unjoinned the NDA alliance ,because of which there is a split in the Upper Caste community votes who mainly vote for the development rather than the appeasements. So the upper caste votes will be shared among these parties. In 2010 elections the BJP and JD(U) alliance has acquired 39% of the total vote share and has won 206 seats out of 243 and RJD has acquired has 18.84% of vote share and won 22 seats.  But after Nitish Kumar , has to join the hands with other opposition parties i.e LaluPrasad’s party(RJD) and Congress to get back his chief minister seat, when there was a non- confidence motion presented against his party recently.  As there is a tough competition between the vote shares because of various factors like the Caste Card , Development there is a tough competition between the New-Secular Alliance consists of RJD(LaluParty),JD(U) ,Congress and NationalDemocracticAlliance consists of BJP, LokJanataShaktiParti(Paswan).  The Strength of RJD is the vote share of Yadav’s and Muslim’s vote share and JD(U) strength is Nitish Kumar and his development during the last 2 tenure’s as a ChiefMinister.
  • 3. 14.4 14.7 10 7.1 6.4 5.7 5 4.7 1.5 5.2 4.2 Voter's Share in %(ByCaste) Yadava's-RJD Muslims-RJD Mahadalits-Both BJP and Nitish Voters Banyas-BJP Voters Koeri-Nitish Voters Brahmin-BJP voters
  • 4. Bihar 2015 and impending Lalu-Nitish Marriage
  • 5. Strengths of RJD and JD(U) alliance  Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar have formed an alliance of convenience in Bihar. Afraid of losing the State to the BJP, they have ganged up together with the Congress which has been decimated nationally. What promoted this alliance is poor performance of all the these parties in the Lok Sabha elections held in 2014. The logic of all these parties contest together there would be no division of anti-BJP votes.  In the 2014 Lok Sabha Results , if these three parties(JDU,Congress,RJD) along with Pawar’s NCP had contested together in the Lok Sabha polls, NDA would have won only 10 seats instead of 31. It can be argued that elections is not only about arithmetic but also chemistry and the BJP would have still done extremely well.
  • 6.  Rashtriya Janata Dal-Lok Janshakti Party: 25 seats for 25.59 per cent; Congress: four seats for 8.38 per cent; Communist Party of India: one seat for 1.69 per cent and Communist Party of India (Marxist): no seats for 0.71 per cent. The JD(U) polled 22.61 per cent to the BJP's 16.46 per cent.  These figures ought to comfort Lalu Prasad and warn his opponents against prematurely writing him off. In the October 2005 election, which the RJD fought jointly with the Congress, the two parties together won 63 seats for a combined vote share of 29.54 per cent. The RJD's share of votes in this was 23.45 per cent, which establishes a vote erosion in the current election of around 4.5 percentage points. In the same election, the JD(U) and the BJP polled 20.46 per cent and 15.65 per cent respectively.  The combined vote share of the RJD, the LJP and the Congress is 34 per cent. Add the Left parties, and the vote share increases marginally to 36.40 per cent — still some distance behind the 39 per cent jointly polled by the JD(U) and the BJP. The JD(U) and the BJP outperformed their principal opponents, the RJD and the LJP in every region of the State. The former had a lead of over 10 percentage points in all but one region, Mithila, where the RJD-LJP polled 27.5 per cent to the JD(U)-BJP's 36 per cent. The region-wise comparative shares of the rivals: Ang: JD(U)-BJP 37.7 per cent and RJD-LJP 26.50 per cent; Koshi: JD(U)-BJP 39.8 per and RJD-LJP 22 per cent; Mithila: JD(U)-BJP 36 per cent and RJD-LJP 27.5 per cent; Tirhut: JD(U)-BJP 38.5 per cent and RJD-LJP 24 per cent; Bhojpur: JD(U)-BJP 37.5 per cent and RJD-LJP 25.9 per cent; Magadh: JD(U)-BJP 43.9 per cent and RJD-LJP 28.1 per cent.
  • 7.  Rebonding of old rivals Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar today checkmated BJP’s march in Bihar with secular alliance winning 6 of the 10 Assembly seats where bye-elections were held on August 21.  RJD of Lalu Prasad was victorious in Rajnagar (SC), Chapra and Mohiuddinagar. Ruling JD(U) won in Jale and Parbatta, while Congress wrested Bhagalpur from BJP.  On the other hand, RJD-led 'secular alliance' looks confident of getting the backing of 14.6 percent votes of Yadavs, 16 percent votes of Muslims and 5.7 percent votes of Rajput caste, thus making it a formidable 36.3 percent vote share. The Rajput caste voters have showed their loyalty to the RJD in the recent prestigious by-election to the Maharajganj LS seat where RJD candidate Prabhunath Singh defeated the JD-U candidate and education minister PK Shahi in the stronghold of Bhumihar voters. Of the total four MPs the RJD has, three — Prabhunath Singh, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh and Jagadanand Singh — come from the very caste, indicating the Bhumihar caste's loyalty to Lalu’s party.  The bigger source of hope for Nitish is the 21.3 percent extremely backward castes. The reason behind his claim on EBC votes is his government's move to constitute the Mahadalit Commission which allows them to avail several development schemes.
  • 8. Some other challenges for BJP led NDA in Bihar and advantages for RJD and JD(U)  As the Narendra Modi led BJP government came into ruling by keeping a lot of speculation in public and was manage to win 2014 Loksabha elections with the public hating congress rule, and there is a split in the votes .Now it’s a time for them to really prove what they can specially do Bihar  Narendra Modi government has recently announced a 1 lakh core special package to Bihar with the assembly elections round the corner, this has to be really fullfilled otherwise they would be easily targeted by the opposition parties like the RJD ,JDU and Congress.  A special status category to Bihar is a long term promise , which BJP has to provide to Bihar. But they cannot just tell it by words as they are feeling the pressure from AndhraPradesh people, which they promised but failed to deliver.  As it is exactly 1 year the Narendra Modi led BJP govt came into power, people will really watch their real work on the ground rather than the manifesto and BJP cannot take it easy keeping in view of Delhi Election results.  Now the main hope of BJP after JDU unjoinned NDA is LSP led by Paswan and their Maha Dalit Votes. But there can be clash between both the parties for ChiefMinister post and seats share among them. By keeping all these points in view RJD and JDU alliance is going to be a touh competation for BJP and its alliances to win Bihar elections